Changan Automobile (Changan) has reported August sales. Affected by weak off-season demand, August sales of new vehicles reached 200k units, -16% YoY. However, NEV sales continued their growth trend, exceeding 100k units in August, up by 13% YoY. We continue to be optimistic about the company’s NEV volume growth driving profitability. In 1H26, Changan’s revenue reached RMB65.6bn (-9.7% YoY); the attributable net profit was RMB0.8bn (-64.3% YoY). For 2Q26, revenue was RMB32.9bn (-14.5% YoY, +0.7% QoQ); the attributable net profit was RMB0.5bn (-50.3% YoY, +33.0% QoQ). The YoY decline in the attributable net profit was due to sales coming under temporary pressure and reduced exchange gains. Looking to 2026, we remain optimistic about the release of profits from the company’s overseas business and continued loss reduction in NEVs. Maintain BUY.
2Q26 GPM up QoQ
Excluding the impact of changes in exchange gains, for 1H26, the net profit grew by 12% YoY, indicating that core business profitability remains solid. The automotive business GPM was 14.50% in 1H26, roughly flat YoY (-0.08pp), with the 2Q26 GPM at 14.92%, +0.84pp QoQ. The resilience in gross margin was attributable to the company’s pricing strategy of not trading volume for price, with cost reductions in other areas offsetting increases in storage-related costs. By segment, the NEV business achieved overall loss reduction in 1H26, with NEVO significantly reducing losses and achieving single-quarter profitability in 2Q26, while Avatr reduced losses YoY. In addition, Changan maintained high R&D intensity, with R&D expenditure accounting for 7.78% of revenue in 1H26 (up by 0.35pp YoY), building momentum for future new product launches and technology monetization.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering intensified industry competition in 2026, which may impact per-vehicle profitability, we lower our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecast by 24/13/2% to RMB4.3/6.1/7.6bn. In our SOTP analysis, we value the traditional segment at 13x 2026E PE (previous: 15x 2026E PE), for a target valuation of RMB52.0bn, and the ‘Deepal + Avatr’ segment at 0.8x 2026E PS (previous: 1.0x 2026E PS). Our target market cap for Changan is RMB93.3bn. We lower our target price to RMB9.41 (previous: RMB12.77). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Weaker consumer demand than we expect, supply shortages, underperformance in product releases and orders.

　　汇率波动及原材料价格上涨拖累盈利增长。公司上半年营业收入656.34亿元，同比减少9.7%；归母净利润8.17亿元，同比减少64.3%；扣非归母净利润2.51亿元，同比减少83.0%。二季度营业收入329.28亿元，同比减少14.5%，环比增长0.7%；归母净利润4.67亿元，同比减少50.3%，环比增长33.2%；扣非归母净利润0.08亿元。上半年利润下滑主要系原材料价格上涨和汇率波动等因素影响。
　　新能源车产品结构优化，高阶智驾加速推进。2026二季度长安汽车销量56.14万辆，同比下降13.6%，环比增长0.7%；其中新能源汽车销量24.56万辆，同比下滑4.6%，环比增长45.6%，我们认为新能源销量下滑主要系公司主动减产收益较弱的Lumin小车所致，三大主品牌销量情况良好，公司稳步改善产品结构和渠道库存，下半年还将推出启源Q05、启源A05L、阿维塔旗舰大六座SUV等车型。智能化方面，9月4日公司将发布自研高阶智驾系统天枢领航Ultra，其基于SDA天枢中央环网架构打造，搭载VLM视觉语言大模型，支持高速和城市NOA及全场景智能泊车等功能。公司已获批L3自动驾驶专用正式号牌和L4级Robotaxi测试牌照，预计将于2027年实现L3规模量产，2028年进一步实现全场景L4级功能。
　　海纳百川2.0稳步推进，出海将持续贡献利润。上半年公司海外销售219.42亿元，同比增长78.8%；毛利率20.1%，高出国内市场8.5个百分点。上半年公司海外销量45.47万辆，同比增长51.9%，销量占比40.6%，其中二季度海外销售24.21万辆，同比增长73.1%，环比增长13.9%，销量占比43.1%。公司推进海纳百川2.0计划，持续加大海外品牌、产品、渠道、产能等领域投入，由产品出海升级为产业出海和生态出海，目标2026全年海外销售75万辆，2030年挑战180万辆出口销量。我们认为海外已成为公司核心增量市场，公司“一区一策”人力配置模式将确保出海战略具备高效执行力，随着巴西工厂产能落地和欧洲经销商签约合作推进，预计后续将释放更多销量和利润空间。
　　预测2026-2028年归母净利润46.89、58.13、62.45亿元（原为56.58、68.36、73.83亿元，调整毛利率、费用率等），维持可比公司26年平均PE估值18倍，目标价8.46元，维持买入评级。
　　风险提示
　　长安自主品牌销量低于预期、长安合资品牌销量低于预期、行业价格战影响盈利、汇率波动影响盈利。

　　公司公布8月销量，受淡季需求影响，8月销售新车20万辆，同比-16%。但新能源汽车延续增长态势，8月销量超10万台，同比+13%。我们继续看好公司新能源放量带动盈利改善。26H1公司收入656亿元（yoy-9.7%）；归母净利润8亿元（yoy-64.3%）；26Q2收入329亿元（yoy-14.5%，qoq+0.7%）；归母净利5亿元（yoy-50.3%，qoq+33.0%）。归母净利润同比下滑主要受销量阶段性承压及汇兑收益减少所致。展望26全年，我们看好公司海外业务利润释放及新能源持续减亏，维持“买入”评级。
　　剔除汇兑影响后H1利润同比增长12%，26Q2毛利率环比提升
　　剔除汇兑收益变动影响后，26H1净利润同比+12%，主营业务盈利能力依然稳健。毛利率方面，上半年公司汽车业务毛利率14.50%，同比基本持平（-0.08pct），其中26Q2单季毛利率14.92%，环比Q1提升0.84pct；毛利率保持坚挺主要得益于公司不以价换量的定价策略与其他环节降本对冲存储端等成本提升。分业务看，新能源业务上半年实现整体减亏，其中启源大幅减亏并于Q2实现单季度盈利，阿维塔同比减亏。此外，公司研发投入维持高强度，上半年研发支出占营收比重7.78%（同比+0.35pct），为后续新品与技术变现积蓄势能。
　　26Q2新能源销量环比增长46%，三大品牌新品加速放量
　　销量端，26H1公司新能源汽车销量41.4万辆（yoy-8.3%），剔除Lumin后新能源总体销量yoy+11%。8月新能源销量超10万台，同比+13%。产品端，公司上半年密集投放阿维塔06T、全新深蓝S07华为乾崑激光版、阿维塔07L等多款重磅新品，其中长安启源Q05连续3个月蝉联紧凑级纯电SUV销量第一；展望9月后，公司预计推出多款新品以支撑盈利改善：启源Q06于9月4日开启全球预售，首搭自研“天枢领航Ultra”端到端智驾系统；公司预计Q4发布A05L及阿维塔第二代首款大六座车型。
　　H1海外收入同比增长79%，“产品出海”加速迈向“体系出海”
　　26H1公司海外销量45.5万辆（yoy+52%），海外营收219亿元（yoy+78.77%），收入占比提升至约三分之一；盈利能力方面，海外业务毛利率20.13%，显著高于国内业务的11.67%，海外放量对利润的结构性拉动持续兑现。分地区看：（1）东南亚：泰国罗勇工厂第2万台整车成功下线，为东南亚本地化布局树立新的里程碑；（2）中南美：巴西阿纳波利斯工厂正式竣工投产，首辆巴西本土制造的长安UNI-T成功下线；（3）欧洲：阿维塔与挪威RSA集团、塞尔维亚DeltaAuto集团签署合作协议，加速开拓海外高价值市场。公司正加速推动“产品出海”向“体系出海”升级，通过海外本土化建厂、KD件组装、跨国技术合作等方式深度融入全球市场。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到26年汽车行业竞争加剧，或影响公司单车盈利，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利预测为43/61/76亿元（下调幅度24%/13%/2%）。采用分部估值，给予传统业务26年13倍PE（前值26E15xPE），估值520亿元；给予“深蓝+阿维塔”业务26年0.8倍PS（前值26E1.0xPS）。对应总市值933亿元，下调目标价为9.41元（前值12.77元），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：消费需求不及预期，供应链短缺，产品发布、订单不及预期。

　　事件：
　　8月29日，公司发布2026年半年度报告，2026年上半年实现营收656.34亿元，同比-9.71%；实现归母净利润8.17亿元，同比-64.32%；实现扣非归母净利润2.51亿元，同比-83.01%。2026年Q2实现营收329.28亿元，同比-14.54%；实现归母净利润4.67亿元，同比-50.25%；实现扣非归母净利润0.08亿元，同比-98.78%。
　　报告要点：
　　智能化业务由单点向全栈化拓展，多领域成果持续落地
　　依托智能化技术积累的口碑，公司推动智能业务向附加值深度与行业广度双向拓展。智驾业务推动产品由单一感知硬件向全栈化、系统化升级，天枢智驾已完成“硬件→智驾算法→天枢智驾完整解决方案”的演进，未来有望以智能驾驶为支点实现“1+N”产品拓展。行业层面，公司立足汽车主业，向人形机器人领域延伸，天枢智能机器人（重庆）有限公司正式成立，相关生成式大模型完成国家网信办备案，后续将持续丰富智能机器人产品品类。
　　出海业务完成能力储备，海外本土化基地推进投产落地
　　公司持续布局全球化生产与渠道建设，巴西工厂完成竣工投产，实现本土化整车制造底层技术创新，具备供应链本地化、成本优化、交付能力提升等优势，已落地UNI-T车型生产，后续将向拉美、东欧等高价值市场拓展。配套推进的泰国罗勇工厂产业化进展顺利，第20000台整车成功下线，波兰市场实现订单从零到千的关键突破，支撑海外整车销量快速爬坡。
　　投资建议与盈利预测
　　我们预计公司2026-2028年营业收入分别为1753.37/1980.18/2135.29亿元，归母净利润分别为49.02/62.83/85.96亿元，按照当前最新股本测算，对应基本每股收益分别为0.49/0.63/0.87元，按照最新股价测算，对应PE14.30/11.16/8.15倍。维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示
　　新能源汽车增速放缓导致行业竞争加剧风险、海外新能源渗透率不及预期与海外贸易壁垒增多风险、公司智能化业务发展不及预期风险。

Changan Automobile has posted 1Q26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)of RMB32.7/0.4bn(-4/-74%YoY,-33/-66%QoQ).We believe 1Q performance declines were mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations,but product profitability remained solid,with gross margin slightly improving YoY.At Auto China 2026,the company showcased five major brands–Avatr,Deepal,NEVO,Changan,and Kaicheng–and released the Vast Ocean Plan 2.0.As we expect new models such as NEVO Q06 and Avatr 06GT to benefit from scale effects and improve profitability of new energy vehicles(NEVs),we maintain our BUY rating.
Cost reduction and efficiency gains in sales and management
For 2025,Changan's revenue was RMB164.0bn(+3%YoY)and attributable NP was RMB4.1bn(-44%YoY),primarily due to asharp decline in non-recurring gains.Entering 2026,industry competition intensified,with Changan's 1Q overall sales at 560k units,down by 21%YoY.However,signs of stabilization emerged in March,with single-month sales up by 1.1%YoY.Gross margin for 1Q26 reached 14%(+0.2pp YoY),reflecting improvement despite pricing pressure,mainly due to an increased export ratio(38%in 1Q,+15pp YoY).On expenses,the 1Q26 sales/administrative/R&D expense ratio was 4.8/2.1/4.2%(-0.2/-0.9/-0.2pp YoY),highlighting effective cost control.The financial expense ratio rose by 4.1pp YoY to 1%,largely due to last year's one-off exchange gains versus this year's exchange losses.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering intensified industry competition in 2026,which may impact per-vehicle profitability,we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecast by 29/27%to RMB5.6/6.9bn and introduce our 2028 forecast of RMB7.8bn.We remain positive on the company's long-term strategy of transition towards NEVs,overseas expansion,and robotics post-2026.In our SOTP analysis,we value the traditional segment at 15x 2026E PE(previous:12x 2026E PE),implying atarget market cap of RMB75.0bn,and the'Deepal+Avatr'segment at 1.0x 2026E PS(unchanged).Our target market cap for Changan is RMB126.6bn.We lower our target price to RMB12.77(previous:RMB15.45).Maintain BUY.