GPM Drop Temporarily Weighed on Recurring NP
发布时间:2026-10-26 来源:华泰证券
Dongfang Electronics reported 3Q26 revenue of RMB2,362mn(+17.94%YoY),recurring attributable net profit(NP)of RMB164mn(-7.96%YoY),and attributable NP of RMB116mn(-39.86%YoY).Non-recurring items yielded asizable impact,reflecting fair value changes on the company's shareholding in CSG Digital Grid(301638 CH).As apioneer in China's power automation sector,the company sustained steady growth in its core business,while new businesses and overseas expansion could deliver faster growth.We expect its earnings to keep improving.Maintain BUY.
Revenue grew rapidly,GPM declined
For 9M26,revenue was RMB6,029mn(+16.74%YoY),attributable NP was RMB519mn(+4.79%YoY),and recurring NP was RMB482mn(+1.85%YoY).Non-recurring gains totaled RMB37mn in 9M26(RMB111/-26/-48mn in 1Q/2Q/3Q26),largely reflecting fair value changes on its CSG Digital Grid shareholding.For 9M26,GPM/NPM were 29.63/7.88%(-2.49/-0.83pp YoY),with the GPM decline mainly due to the gradual recognition of earlier low-priced orders in the domestic power distribution and utilization business.For 9M26,overall expense ratio fell by 1.96pp YoY to 21.15%,with sales/administrative/financial/R&D expense ratios at 8.53/4.93/-0.56/8.25%(-1.40/-0.17/+0.58/-0.96pp YoY).The rise in financial expenses stemmed from lower interest income and higher exchange losses,while overall expense control kept improving.
Overseas expansion accelerated
The company is accelerating its overseas expansion and focusing on key markets.Overseas project contracts span awide range of products and solutions,including distribution network automation,energy storage,microgrids,substation back-end systems,and electricity meters.Earnings diverged across subsidiaries.Wholly-owned subsidiary Dongfang Wisdom Electric faced price declines in power utilization products;driven by new products,new businesses,and new markets,its 1H26 revenue rose by 24.95%YoY to RMB1,590mn and net profit rose by 6.28%YoY to RMB165mn,with strong revenue growth but profit constrained by competition.Stake-controlling subsidiary HaiYi Software,facing competition pressure,longer delivery cycles,higher costs,and business transformation,posted 1H26 revenue of RMB171mn(-26.47%YoY)and anet loss of RMB51mn(-82.02%YoY),which weighed on group earnings.
Orders continued to grow rapidly
For 1H26,the company and its subsidiaries won contracts worth over RMB6.3bn(1H25:RMB5.4bn;+16.67%YoY).At State Grid,it won RMB838mn in the first batch of regional joint procurement and acumulative RMB270mn in headquarters centralized tenders,winning all tenders for protection and monitoring products and the new-generation integrated terminals.Its smart testing business for power distribution and utilization expanded rapidly,with new contracts for testing benches exceeding RMB50mn,and full-performance testing lines and smart laboratory projects in Guangxi,Ningxia,Hebei,and other provinces as well as the China Southern Power Grid(CSG)market reaching acumulative contract value of RMB80mn,lifting its market share.At CSG,it won about RMB199mn in distribution network framework agreement tenders,and emerging businesses such as AI projects,energy storage,renewables,and microgrids continued to gain traction.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the drag on GPM from the recognition of low-priced power distribution and utilization orders,we lower our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 6.9/6.9/6.8%to RMB960/1,112/1,301mn(previous:RMB1,032/1,195/1,396mn),implying EPS of RMB0.72/0.83/0.97.To reflect the company's technological moat,strong operating resilience,and adoption of emerging technology projects,we value the stock at 16x 2027E PE,above its peers'average of 15x 2027E PE on Wind consensus as of 23 October 2026.Our target price is RMB13.28(previous:RMB15.40,based on 20x 2026E PE).Maintain BUY.
Risks:weaker-than-expected grid investment,intensified competition,rising raw material prices.