Sinosteel Engineering & Technology (Sinosteel) released its 1H26 results: revenue of RMB6,674mn (-1.06% YoY), attributable NP of RMB398mn (-6.18% YoY), and recurring NP of RMB399mn (-5.44% YoY). For 2Q26, revenue was RMB3,794mn (+17.60% YoY), attributable NP was RMB214mn (+10.78% YoY), and recurring NP was RMB216mn (+12.93% YoY). Attributable NP came in above our expectation of RMB176mn, attributable to the reversal of asset impairment losses. Given the strong growth in newly signed orders in 1H26, which we believe should support steady revenue and profit growth, we maintain BUY.
Domestic business revenue grew robustly YoY, but GPM soft
The company's 1H26 blended GPM was 13.40% (-1.72pp YoY). For 1Q26/2Q26, GPM was 15.12%/12.09% (+1.37/-4.52pp YoY), with 2Q26 GPM declining both YoY and QoQ, due to the drag from declining domestic GPM. By region, overseas business revenue reached RMB3,519mn in 1H26 (-29.41% YoY), with GPM up 2.96pp YoY to 16.74%, showing modest improvement. Domestic business revenue was RMB3,155mn (+79.26% YoY), while GPM declined notably by 9.22pp YoY to 9.68%. In 1H26, overseas/domestic gross profit accounted for 65.9%/34.1%. Domestic revenue contribution rose rapidly to 47.3% (+21.2pp YoY), but gross profit contribution only increased modestly to 34.1% (+1.5pp YoY), reflecting the profitability pressure in the domestic business during 1H26, which dragged on its profit contribution.
Operating cash flow notably improved
The company's 1H26 expense ratio was 6.93% (+0.98pp YoY), remaining broadly stable, with sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios at 0.4%/4.0%/2.05%/0.44% (+0.06/-0.25/-0.30/+1.47pp YoY). The financial expense ratio rose YoY, due to exchange losses. In 1H26, asset and credit impairment losses reversed by RMB108mn in total (vs. RMB88mn provisioned in 1H25), owing to the reversal of bad debt losses on long-term receivables. The impairment reversal partially offset the downward pressure on GPM. Taken together, 1H26 attributable net margin was 5.97%, down slightly by 0.33pp YoY. In 1H26, net operating cash outflow was RMB686mn, significantly narrowed from RMB2,912mn net outflow in 1H25. The cash collection ratio was 113.3% (+43.5pp YoY), while the cash payout ratio was 132.2% (+4.5pp YoY). As of end-1H26, the debt-to-asset ratio was 66.5%, broadly stable YoY. The interest-bearing debt ratio remained low at 1.4% (-2.6pp YoY).
Domestic newly-signed orders rose strongly YoY
In 1H26, the company's newly signed project contract value was RMB11,037mn, up 75.0% YoY. For 1Q26/2Q26, newly signed contract value was RMB5,963/5,070mn (+49.9%/+117.9% YoY). By region, domestic newly signed orders were RMB9,591mn (+292.4% YoY), while overseas orders were RMB1,446mn (-62.6% YoY). Strong domestic order growth drove the overall surge in newly signed orders. We believe the company's overseas business maintains long-term competitive advantages in full-process EPC general contracting capabilities and engineering technology. We suggest monitoring the pace of order effectiveness and revenue conversion. With accelerating domestic newly signed orders, we suggest monitoring the trend of project profitability.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB667/704/735mn, implying EPS of RMB0.47/0.49/0.51. Comparable companies are trading at an average of 17.55x 2026E PE on iFind consensus. Considering the profitability pressure in the domestic business and the drag from exchange losses on profit margins, we assign the company 14x 2026E PE, adjusting our target price to RMB6.58 (previous: RMB8.84, on 19x 2026E PE, with 2026 comparable average at 19x). Maintain BUY.
Risks: Weaker overseas business demand than we expect; geopolitical risks; sharp decline in domestic steel investment.

　　公司公布上半年业绩：26H1实现营收66.74亿元（yoy-1.06%），归母净利3.98亿元（yoy-6.18%），扣非净利3.99亿元（yoy-5.44%）。其中Q2实现营收37.94亿元（yoy+17.60%），归母净利润2.14亿元（yoy+10.78%），扣非净利2.16亿元（yoy+12.93%），归母净利润高于我们的预期（v.s.归母净利润预测1.76亿元），我们认为主要因资产减值损失冲回。考虑到上半年公司新签订单强劲增长，有望支持公司保持收入盈利稳健增长，维持"买入"评级。
　　国内业务收入同比高增，而毛利率承压
　　公司1H26综合毛利率13.40%，同比-1.72pct；其中1Q26/2Q26毛利率分别为15.12%/12.09%，分别同比+1.37pct/-4.52pct，二季度毛利率同环比均有所下滑，我们认为主要因国内毛利率下行拖累。分地区看，1H26海外业务实现营收35.19亿元，同比-29.41%，毛利率同比+2.96pct至16.74%，小幅提升；国内业务实现营收31.55亿元，同比大幅增长79.26%，而毛利率同比明显降低9.22pct至9.68%。1H26公司海外/国内毛利占比为65.9%/34.1%；国内收入占比同比快速提升至47.3%（同比+21.2pct），但毛利占比仅小幅提升至34.1%（同比+1.5pct），体现上半年国内业务利润率承压，拖累其利润贡献。
　　减值损失冲回，经营现金流明显改善
　　公司1H26期间费用率6.93%，同比+0.98pct，总体保持平稳，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为0.4%/4.0%/2.05%/0.44%，同比+0.06/-0.25/-0.30/+1.47pct；财务费用率同比上行，主要因汇兑损失影响。1H26资产和信用减值损失合计冲回1.08亿元（v.s.1H25计提0.88亿元），主要因长期应收款坏账损失冲回；减值冲回部分对冲了毛利率下行压力。综合影响下1H26归母净利率5.97%，同比小幅降低0.33pct。1H26公司经营现金净流出6.86亿元，净流出同比明显缩减（v.s.1H25净流出29.12亿元）；收现比113.3%，同比明显增加43.5pct；付现比132.2%、同比+4.5pct。1H26末公司资产负债率66.5%，较上年同期基本稳定；有息负债率1.4%、同比-2.6pct，有息负债率保持低位。
　　国内新签订单同比高增
　　公司1H26新签项目合同金额110.37亿元，同比大幅增长75.0%；其中1Q26/2Q26新签合同金额分别为59.63/50.7亿元、同比+49.9%/+117.9%。上半年分区域看，国内新签订单95.91亿元，同比+292.4%，国外14.46亿元、同比-62.6%；国内订单强劲增长驱动新签订单整体高增。我们认为公司海外业务长期保持全流程EPC总承包能力以及工程技术等竞争优势，建议关注订单生效和收入转化节奏；国内业务新签订单加速，建议关注项目盈利能力趋势。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测6.67、7.04、7.35亿元，对应EPS为0.47、0.49、0.51元。可比公司26年iFind一致预期PE均值为17.55倍，考虑到国内业务利润率承压、汇兑损失拖累利润率水平，给予公司26年14倍P/E，调整目标价至6.58元（前值8.84元，对应26年19xP/E，26年可比均值19xP/E），维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：海外业务市场不及预期，地缘政治风险，国内钢铁投资快速下行。

Sinosteel Engineering & Technology (Sinosteel) has posted 2025 revenue/ attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NP of RMB13,914/485/489mn (-21.15/-41.90/ -34.45% YoY). Attributable NP came in below our expectation of RMB809mn, mainly due to RMB180mn in estimated liabilities provisioned for the Bolivia project. For 4Q25/1Q26, revenue was RMB4.74/2.88bn (-6.04/-18.17% YoY) and attributable NP was RMB-70/+199mn (-136/-14.0% YoY). We believe overseas market fundamentals remain favorable, while domestic demand has also shown recovery. The company's newly signed orders increased by 3.7% YoY in 2025 and jumped by 49.9% YoY in 1Q26. As the impact from the Bolivia project gradually weakens, profitability is likely to recover progressively. Maintain BUY.
Overseas project dented 4Q25 gross margin
Sinosteel's overall gross margin for 2025 was 13.65% (-0.85pp YoY). Gross margin for 4Q25/1Q26 was 10.5/15.1% (-9.2/+1.4pp YoY), mainly due to the Bolivia project provision dragging down overall gross margin in 4Q25. By region,overseas business revenue reached RMB8.98bn in 2025 (-6.34% YoY), while gross margin declined by 2.28pp YoY to 11.39%. Domestic business revenue was RMB4.93bn (-46.4% YoY), while gross margin increased by 2.5pp YoY to 17.76%.
Attributable net margin improved YoY in 1Q26
Sinosteel's overall expense ratio for 2025 was 6.7% (-0.02pp YoY), with the sales/ administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios at 0.45/4.43/2.43/-0.62% (+0.12/+0.64/ +0.30/-1.09pp YoY). Financial expenses declined by RMB169mn YoY, mainly due to reduced interest expenses from lower borrowing costs and increased interest income from higher cash balances. Other expense ratios increased passively due to declining revenue. Impairment losses as a percentage of revenue rose by 0.70pp YoY to 2.25%. Taken together, the attributable net margin for 2025 was 3.49%, down by 1.25pp YoY. For 1Q26, the overall expense ratio was 5.69% (+0.82pp YoY), while the attributable net margin reached 6.91% (+0.33pp YoY).
Operating cash flow recovered significantly YoY in 1Q26
Sinosteel's net operating cash inflow in 2025 was RMB1,292mn, representing RMB212mn less inflow YoY. The full-year cash collection/payout ratios were 110.2/112.6% (+12.6/+9.5pp YoY). For 1Q26, net operating cash flow was -RMB303mn, representing RMB1.33bn more inflow YoY. The cash collection/payout ratios were 132.2/155.2% (+69.9/+33.8pp YoY). As of end-1Q26, the company's asset-liability ratio was 67.0%, up by 0.11pp YoY but down by 1.17pp from end-2025. The interest-bearing debt ratio remained low at only 3.2%.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering slower implementation progress for overseas projects relative to domestic projects and slower growth in newly signed orders, we lower our revenue growth assumptions and revise our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts to RMB667/704/735mn (-21.61%/-20.82%/- vs our previous forecasts). We value the stock at 19x 2026E PE, at par with its peers' average on Wind consensus, for our target price of RMB8.84 (previous: RMB9.02, based on 16x 2025E PE). BUY.
Risks: Weaker overseas business demand than we expect, geopolitical risks, sharp decline in domestic steel investment.

　　25年业绩承压，高分红仍具较强吸引力，继续维持“买入”评级
　　公司发布25年年报和26年一季报，25年实现营收139.14亿元，同比-21.15%，归母、扣非归母净利润分别为4.85亿元、4.89亿元，同比-41.9%、-34.45%。26Q1单季公司实现营收28.79亿元，同比-18.17%，归母净利润为1.99亿元，同比-14.02%，扣非归母净利润1.98亿元，同比-14.33%。考虑到海外新签订单增速放缓，我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润5.2/6.1/7亿元（26-27年前值为8.9/10.1亿元），按照公司25年末62.1%的分红比例计算，截至2026/5/11日收盘，26年公司股息率约3.4%，继续维持“买入”评级。
　　海外收入稳步增长，毛利率略有下滑
　　分业务来看，25年公司工程总承包/工程单机备件/工程咨询与服务业务分别实现销售收入126.28、8.89、3.66亿元，同比分别-23.02%/-2.10%/+23%。分区域看，国内、海外分别实现收入49.35、89.8亿元，同比-46.37%、+6.34%，海外业务逆势增长，收入占比提升至64.53%。盈利能力方面，国内业务毛利率为17.76%，同比提升2.5pct，海外业务毛利率为11.39%，同比下降2.28pct。
　　费用率同比有所改善，现金流表现较为稳健
　　25年公司综合毛利率为13.65%，同比-0.85pct，期间费用率为6.69%，同比-0.02pct。销售、管理、研发、财务费用率同比分别变动+0.12pct、
　　+0.64pct、+0.3pct、-1.09pct，其中，财务费用率下降系利息收支双向改善及汇兑损失下降。资产及信用减值损失合计3.12亿元，较上年同期多计提0.4亿元。综合影响下，25年公司净利率3.75%，同比-1.2pct。25年公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为12.92亿元，同比减少2.12亿元。
　　新签订单稳中有升，矿山业务取得突破
　　2025年公司新签订单合计203.98亿元，同比增长约3.7%，其中国内、国外分别新签58.08、145.9亿元，同比分别+70.7%/-10.3%，国内新签订单同比实现大幅增长。作为冶金工程领域最早走出去的中国企业，公司积极践行国家“走出去”战略及“一带一路”倡议，业务落地30余个“一带一路”沿线国家，25年签约土耳其喷煤和强混、埃及短流程钢厂、阿曼直接还原铁、沙特无缝钢管等项目，并成功进入阿塞拜疆冶金市场；矿山业务实现突破性增长，与矿业巨头力拓集团深化合作等，国际化战略稳步推进。
　　风险提示：订单落地不及预期；海外政治经济不确定性；项目落地不及预期。

　　公司发布年报及一季报：2025年实现营收139.14亿元，同比-21.15%，归母净利/扣非净利4.85/4.89亿元，同比-41.90%/-34.45%，归母净利低于我们的预期（8.09亿元），主要是玻利维亚项目计提预计负债1.8亿元。25Q4/26Q1分别实现营收47.4/28.8亿，同比-6.04%/-18.17%，归母净利-0.70/1.99亿，同比-136%/-14.0%。我们认为海外市场景气较好，同时国内需求有所恢复，公司25年新签订单同比+3.7%，26Q1新签订单同比+49.9%，未来随着玻利维亚项目影响减弱，公司盈利能力有望逐渐恢复，维持“买入”评级。
　　25Q4毛利率受海外项目影响下滑较多，26Q1毛利率回升
　　公司25年综合毛利率13.65%，同比-0.85pct，25Q4/26Q1毛利率分别为10.5%/15.1%，同比-9.2/+1.4pct，主要是Q4玻利维亚项目计提拖累整体毛利率。分地区看，25年海外业务实现营收89.8亿，同比+6.34%，毛利率同比-2.28pct至11.39%；25年国内业务实现营收49.3亿，同比-46.4%，毛利率同比+2.5pct至17.76%。
　　26Q1归母净利率同比提升
　　25年期间费用率为6.7%，同比-0.02pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率同比分别0.45%/4.43%/2.43%/-0.62%，同比+0.12/+0.64/+0.3/-1.09pct。财务费用同比减少1.69亿元，主要归因于借款成本降低利息支出减少，同时现金增加利息收入增加，其余费用率受收入下滑影响被动抬升。25年减值支出占比同比+0.70pct至2.25%，综合影响下，25年归母净利率3.49%，同比-1.25pct。26Q1期间费用率为5.69%，同比+0.82pct，归母净利率为6.91%，同比+0.33pct。
　　26Q1经营性现金流同比显著改善
　　公司25年经营性现金流净额为12.92亿元，同比少流入2.12亿元，全年收/付现比110.2%/112.6%，同比+12.6/+9.5pct。26Q1实现经营性现金流净额-3.03亿元，同比多流入13.3亿元，收/付现比132.2%/155.2%，同比+69.9/+33.8pct。截至26Q1末，公司资产负债率67.0%，同比+0.11pct，较25年末-1.17pct，有息负债率仅为3.2%。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到海外项目生效慢于国内，新签订单增速放缓，我们下调未来收入增速，调整公司26-28年归母净利润至6.67/7.04/7.35亿元（较前值分别调整-21.61%/-20.82%/-）。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为19倍，给予公司26年19倍PE，调整目标价至8.84元（前值9.02元，对应25年可比均值16xPE），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：海外业务市场不及预期，地缘政治风险，国内钢铁投资快速下行。

　　公司2026上半年归母净利润同比-6.18%，基本符合预期。根据Wind，2026年上半年公司实现营业总收入66.74亿，同比-1.06%；实现归母净利润3.98亿，同比-6.18%，基本符合预期。2026年上半年公司毛利率、归母净利率分别为13.40%、5.97%，同比分别-1.72pct、-0.33pct；期间费用率合计为6.93%，同比+0.98pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比+0.06pct/-0.25pct/-0.29pct/+1.47pct。2026年上半年资产及信用减值损失正向贡献1.09亿，去年同期亏损0.88亿。分季度看，26Q1/Q2分别实现营收28.79亿/37.94亿元，同比分别-18.17%/+17.60%，分别实现归母净利润1.85亿/2.14亿元，同比-20.30%/+10.78%，基本符合预期。
　　国内收入快速增长，海外有所承压。根据公司公告，2026年上半年，分板块看，1）工程总承包业务实现营业收入59.43亿，同比-5.91%，毛利率11.49%，同比-2.73pct；2）工程单机备件产品实现营业收入5.66亿，同比+84.98%；3）工程咨询与服务业务实现营业收入1.51亿，同比+39.90%。分区域看，2026年上半年公司境内实现收入31.55亿，同比+79.26%，毛利率9.68%，同比-9.22pct，境外实现收入35.19亿，同比-29.41%，毛利率16.74%，同比+2.96pct。
　　2026年上半年经营性现金净流出6.86亿，同比2025年上半年少流出22.26亿。根据Wind，公司2026年上半年经营性现金净流出6.86亿元，同比2025年上半年少流出22.26亿元。2026年上半年收现比113.28%，同比+43.55pct，应收票据及应收账款同比减少5.65亿元；合同负债同比增加15.68亿。付现比132.20%，同比+4.51pct，预付账款同比增加2.63亿，应付票据及应付账款同比减少9.58亿。2026年上半年末公司资产负债率66.5%，较去年同期-0.13pct。
　　投资分析意见：维持26-28年盈利预测，维持“增持”评级。预计26-28年归母净利润分别为7.44亿/8.05亿/8.62亿，同比增长53.4%/8.1%/7.2%，对应PE10X/9X/9X，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：海外业务拓展不及预期，新签订单不及预期，公司诉讼进展不及预期。

　　公司2025年归母净利润同比-41.90%，低于此前预期（-20%），2026Q1归母净利润同比-14.02%，基本符合预期。根据Wind，2025年公司实现营业总收入139.14亿，同比-21.15%；实现归母净利润4.85亿，同比-41.90%，低于此前预期（-20%），主要系国内收入下滑以及海外玻利维亚综合钢厂项目工程建设及验收等因素影响。2025年公司毛利率、归母净利率分别为13.65%、3.49%，同比分别-0.85pct、-1.25pct；期间费用率合计为6.69%，同比-0.02pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比+0.12pct/+0.64pct/+0.30pct/-1.09pct。2025年资产及信用减值损失3.12亿元，绝对值占比营收较去年同期增加0.70pct至2.25%。2026Q1公司实现营业总收入28.79亿，同比-18.17%，实现归母净利润1.99亿，同比-14.02%，基本符合预期。
　　工程主业有所承压，国内收入承压，海外收入保持增长。根据公司公告，2025年分板块看，1）工程总承包业务实现营业收入126.28亿，同比-23.02%，毛利率12.68%，同比-0.93pct；2）工程单机备件产品实现营业收入8.89亿，同比-2.10%，毛利率20.86%，同比+5.05pct；3）工程咨询与服务业务实现营业收入3.66亿，同比+23.00%，毛利率22.70%，同比-26.05pct。分区域看，2025年公司境内实现收入49.35亿，同比-46.37%，毛利率17.76%，同比+2.50pct，境外实现收入89.80亿，同比+6.34%，毛利率11.39%，同比-2.28pct。
　　2025年经营性现金净流入12.92亿，同比2024年少流入2.12亿，2026Q1经营性现金流净额-3.03亿，较2025Q1少流出13.33亿。根据Wind，公司2025年经营性现金净流入12.92亿元，同比2024年少流入2.12亿元，2026Q1经营性现金流净额-3.03亿，较2025Q1少流出13.33亿。2025年收现比110.2%，同比+12.61pct，应收票据及应收账款同比减少4.88亿元；合同负债同比增加8.09亿。付现比112.6%，同比+9.48pct，预付账款同比增加1.96亿，应付票据及应付账款同比减少9.49亿。2026Q1公司收现比132.2%，同比+69.90pct，付现比155.2%，同比+33.77pct。2025年末公司资产负债率68.19%，较去年同期-0.30pct
　　投资分析意见：下调26-27年盈利预测，新增28年盈利预测，维持“增持”评级。国内钢铁行业投资仍然呈现压力，公司境内收入有所收缩，下调26-27年盈利预测，预计26-28年归母净利润分别为7.44亿/8.05亿/8.62亿（26-27年原值7.97亿/8.99亿），同比增长53.4%/8.1%/7.2%，对应PE13X/12X/11X，我们认为公司作为国际工程企业，充分受益“一带一路”出海，海外业务稳步推进，同时随着国内经济复苏，境内市场需求有望触底回升，综合考虑维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：海外业务拓展不及预期，新签订单不及预期，公司诉讼进展不及预期。