As a domestic city services industry leader, Infore Enviro (Infore) has created the ‘full range of intelligent equipment + full scenario intelligent city service’ model, along with the ‘city housekeeper + sanitation integration’ dual-wheel drivers. The company is pursuing diverse development driven by government procurement, franchising, and equity cooperation, securing a leading position in the industry. In 10M24, Infore’s domestic new-energy (NE) sanitation vehicle sales volume rose 41% yoy, with the penetration rate (measured by % of its total sanitation vehicle volume insured for the same period) up 7.1pp, demonstrating its strong competitive edge in NE sanitation vehicles. We also expect Infore’s cash flow to improve driven by China’s debt resolution policies. We are optimistic on its financial statement enhancement and earnings growth prospects for 2025-2026. Maintain BUY.
Infore’s new-energy sanitation vehicles sales volume up 41% yoy
NFRA data on compulsory insurance for vehicle traffic accident liability showed that 587k units of sanitation vehicles were insured nationwide for 10M24 (-10% yoy), and 6,919 units of NE sanitation vehicles were sold for the period (+41% yoy), with a penetration rate of 11.8% (+4.3pp yoy). Infore saw 9,513 units of sanitation vehicles insured for 10M24 (-3% yoy), and sold 2,170 units of NE ones for the period (+41% yoy), implying a penetration rate of 22.8% (+7.1pp yoy). We expect buoyant sales of NE equipment bolstering Infore’s revenue growth.
Making progress in mechanization and digitalization
As of 1H24, Infore’s large-scale mechanized operation model has achieved 100% coverage of main & secondary roads. Its mechanized collection & transportation can reduce 60% of the waste volume, and sweeping and cleaning operations now cover 30,818mn sqm nationwide. Besides, it can collect and transport c. 30k tonnes of daily garbage. Infore’s Zhiyun platform has provided intelligent services for 80k+ products, with daily users exceeding 40k. The S1400RE road-sweeping robot won the first prize at the 2024 Suzhou ‘Wu Di Craftsman’ Unmanned Sweeping Robot Competition. On 12 October 2024, Infore delivered 32 NE compressed garbage trucks to Bangkok, Thailand, for its NE garbage compaction truck project. While aligning mechanized operations and digitalization with smart city programs, Infore is expanding its overseas footprint. We believe Infore is well-positioned to continuously strengthen its market competitiveness.
Target price of RMB7.25, on 27.9x 2025E PE
We maintain our earnings forecasts and project 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP at RMB660/811/975mn. Given Infore’s sound leadership in sanitation equipment, we value the stock at 27.9x 2025E PE (previous: 26.0x), above its peers’ average of 19.9x (previous: 18.6x) on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB7.25 (previous: RMB6.76).
Risks: greater asset/credit impairment than we expect; disappointing sanitation equipment sales; slower progress in developing market-oriented sanitation segment.

　　作为国内城市服务行业龙头，盈峰环境打造“全系列智能装备+全场景智慧城服”模式，“城市管家+环卫一体化”的双轮驱动，政府采购、特许经营、股权合作多元化发展，占据行业领先地位。1-10月公司新能源环卫车销量同增41%，渗透率提升7.1个百分点，新能源环卫车优势明显，同时有望受益于化债政策带来的现金流改善，看好其报表修复和业绩成长前景。维持“买入”评级。
　　盈峰新能源环卫车销量同增41%，渗透率提升7.1pct
　　据上险数据，1-10月全国环卫车辆上险5.87万台，同比-10%，其中新能源环卫车辆销量6919台，同比+41%，渗透率11.8%，同比提升4.3个百分点；盈峰环境环卫车辆上险9513台，同比-3%，新能源环卫车辆销量2170台，同比+41%，渗透率22.8%，同比提升7.1个百分点。公司新能源装备销量高增，有望驱动收入增长。
　　深挖机械化+智能化，成功交付泰国新能源车订单
　　截至2024上半年，公司大型机械化组合作业模式已做到主次干道覆盖率100%，机械化收转运实现生活垃圾减容60%，全国清扫保洁面积达到308.18亿m2，垃圾收运量每天约3万吨。公司智云平台已为全国超8万台产品的客户提供智能服务，日活用户突破4万人；S1400RE扫路机器人获得2024年苏州市“吴地工匠”无人扫地机器人大赛一等奖。10月12日，公司交付泰国曼谷新能源压缩垃圾车项目32辆新能源垃圾压缩车。公司作业机械化、运营数智化与智慧城市建设匹配，同时积极拓展海外市场，市场竞争力将持续加强。
　　2025年目标PE27.9倍，目标价7.25元
　　维持盈利预测，我们预计2024-2026年归母净利润为6.60/8.11/9.75亿元。可比公司2025年Wind一致预期PE均值为19.9倍（前值18.6倍），考虑公司环卫装备龙头地位稳固，给予公司2025年27.9倍PE（前值26.0倍），对应目标价7.25元（前值6.76元）。
　　风险提示：资产减值和信用减值超出预期、环卫装备销售不及预期、环卫市场化进程不及预期。

Infore Enviro’s (Infore) 3Q24 revenue was RMB3,045mn (+6.54% yoy, -5.88% qoq) and attributable net profit (NP) was RMB223mn (-3.20% yoy, +6.93% qoq), in line with our expectation of RMB207-230mn. For 9M24, revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP were RMB9,278/604/604mn, rising 3.19/0.05/11.12% yoy, mainly driven by rising revenue from sanitation services/new-energy sanitation vehicles and sliding revenue from traditional sanitation vehicles. Backed by notable edges in new-energy sanitation vehicles, Infore is poised to benefit from a cash flow recovery driven by the debt resolution policy, in our view. We are upbeat on its improving financials and earnings growth outlook. Maintain BUY.

　　盈峰环境发布三季报：Q3实现营收30.45亿元（yoy+6.54%，qoq-5.88%），归母净利2.23亿元（yoy-3.20%，qoq+6.93%），符合我们的预期（2.07-2.30亿元）。2024年Q1-Q3实现营收92.78亿元（yoy+3.19%），归母净利6.04亿元（yoy+0.05%），扣非净利6.04亿元（yoy+11.12%），主要受环卫服务和新能源环卫车收入增长、传统环卫车收入下降的影响。公司新能源环卫车优势明显，有望受益于化债政策带来的现金流改善，看好其报表修复和业绩成长前景。维持“买入”评级。
　　盈峰新能源环卫车销量同增24%，渗透率提升4.7pct
　　据上险数据，前三季度全国环卫车辆上险5.41万台，同比-10%，其中新能源环卫车辆销量6066台，同比+40%，渗透率11.2%，同比提升4.0个百分点；盈峰环境环卫车辆上险8547台，同比-5%，新能源环卫车辆销量1715台，同比+24%，渗透率20.1%，同比提升4.7个百分点。公司新能源装备销量高增，有望驱动收入增长。
　　应收账款同比+8%，有望受益于化债政策
　　Q3公司毛利率24.76%，同比+1.22pct，净利率7.47%，同比-0.48pct。截至9月30日，公司应收账款65.32亿元，同比+8.28%，前三季度经营活动现金流净额-0.96亿元（9M23：3.23亿元），销售回款减少致同比转负，资本开支5.54亿元，同比-28.00%。环卫“服务+装备”业务以财政付费模式为主，有望受益于化债政策带来的现金流改善。
　　2025年目标PE18.6倍，目标价6.76元
　　维持盈利预测，我们预计2024-2026年归母净利润为6.60/8.11/9.75亿元。
　　可比公司2025年Wind一致预期PE均值为18.6倍，考虑公司环卫装备龙头地位稳固，给予公司2025年26.0倍PE，对应目标价6.76元（前值：
　　5.31元）。
　　风险提示：资产减值和信用减值超出预期、环卫装备销售不及预期、环卫市场化进程不及预期。

1H24 revenue/profit up 2% yoy; maintain BUY
Infore Enviro’s (Infore) revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NP were RMB6,233/381/382mn (+1.64/2.05/16.59% yoy) for 1H24. For 2Q24, revenue/ attributable NP were RMB3,235/208mn (-6.54/-3.90% yoy, +7.90/+20.79% qoq). In view of market conditions for sanitation services and equipment, coupled with the company’s sales volume, GPM, and accounts receivable in 1H24, we lower our full-year sanitation-vehicle sales volume/sanitation-service GPM estimates, lift our full-year asset and credit impairment projections, and forecast 2024/2025/2026 EPS at RMB0.21/0.26/0.31 (previous: RMB0.28/0.34/0.41). Given the company’s leading position in sanitation equipment, and with reference to its peers’ average of 18.1x 2024E PE on Wind consensus, we value the stock at 25.3x 2024E PE. Our target price is RMB5.31 (previous: RMB6.05). Maintain BUY.
NE environmental protection equipment to fuel profit growth
In 1H24, revenue from sanitation equipment fell 12.61% yoy to RMB2,243mn, with the segment GPM up 0.17pp yoy to 27.01%. NFRA data on compulsory insurance for vehicle traffic accident liability show that a total of 5,617 sanitation vehicles were sold in 1H24 (-6.51% yoy; 1H23: 6,008 units), including 816 units of new-energy vehicles (-7.8% yoy; 1H23: 885 units). The company’s 26.5% market share makes it No 1 in the industry. Integrating electrified, intelligent, and connected technologies, the company took the lead in unveiling ‘intelligent sanitation operation cabins’ and a cutting-edge technical solution named ‘intelligent driving’ in 1H24, equipping all its sanitation vehicles (1-18 tonnes) with intelligent functions and realizing trial operation, thus paving the way for large-scale monetization subsequently, in our view.