Integrated Coal-Power Operation Delivers Solid Earnings Growth
发布时间:2026-08-26 来源:华泰证券
Shaanxi Energy Investment’s 1H26 results:revenue reached RMB10,709mn(+8.58%YoY),the attributable net profit came in at RMB1,348mn(+1.07%YoY),and the recurring net profit was RMB1,336mn(+0.54%YoY).For 2Q26,revenue was RMB4,930mn(+5.78%YoY,-14.70%QoQ)and the attributable net profit was RMB460mn(-27.06%YoY,-48.21%QoQ),which fell short of the RMB630mn lower bound of our preview forecast,due to lower-than-expected on-grid tariffs.The company’s equity coal output is well matched with its thermal coal demand,giving it strong earnings resilience against coal-price volatility.We forecast a4.33%dividend yield for 2026E(as of the 21 August market close).Maintain BUY.
1H26 NP per kWh of electricity sold came to RMB3.24 cents
In 1H26,electricity sold to the grid fell by 3.56%YoY to 19,752GWh,largely as thermal power utilization hours were squeezed by asignificant rise in new-energy capacity.The company’s thermal utilization hours declined by 3.18%YoY to 1,890 hours in 1H26.We estimate that the net profit per kWh of electricity sold dropped by RMB2.30 cents YoY to RMB3.24 cents,mainly driven by aRMB3.73 cents/kWh YoY decline in the on-grid tariff(ex-tax)to RMB0.3117/kWh.As of end-June 2026,the company had 4,020MW of thermal capacity under construction and 2,000MW of approved projects in the pipeline.We expect the coal-fired capacity under construction to begin coming online from 2026,which should deepen the company's coal-power integration.
Zhaoshipan ramp-up drives 34.32%YoY coal output growth
The company’s coal capacity release accelerated.The Zhaoshipan mine(6mtpa capacity)has entered the late stage of joint trial operation.In 1H26,coal output rose by 34.32%YoY to 13.28mn tonnes,while external sales of self-produced coal grew by 46.71%YoY to 8.40mn tonnes.External revenue from the coal segment jumped by 78.40%YoY to RMB4,029mn,implying an average external selling price of RMB479.93/tonne(ex-tax),up by 21.60%YoY.Driven by both higher volumes and prices,the coal segment delivered anet profit of RMB1,208mn in 1H26,up by 58.14%YoY.As the Zhaoshipan mine entered joint trial operation in August 2025,we expect full-year coal production and sales volumes to grow YoY in 2026,although the pace of YoY growth in 2H26 should moderate from the 1H26 level.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the lower on-grid tariffs in 1H26 than we expect,we take aprudent approach and cut our 2026/2027/2028 on-grid tariff assumptions by 4.96/4.10/3.75%.This reduces our attributable net profit forecasts by 9.22/10.28/6.85%to RMB3,025/3,138/3,274mn,with EPS of RMB0.81/0.84/0.87.On Wind consensus,its peers now trade at an average 2026E PE of 14.3x(previous:12.6x).We assign a15.5x 2026E PE to Shaanxi Energy,reflecting its strong coal-power matching capability and the fact that its coal-fired power profit contribution is higher than those of its listed coal-power integrated peers.Our target price is RMB12.50(previous:RMB13.77,also based on 15.5x 2026E PE).The lower valuation premium reflects rising tariff uncertainty as the company’s coal-fired capacity is predominantly consumed within Shaanxi province.Maintain BUY.
Risks:weaker power demand in Shaanxi and East/Central China than we expect,coal price volatility,lower electricity volumes or tariffs than we expect,and slower progress in capacity tariff increases than we expect.