Transfar Zhilian has reported 1H26 revenue of RMB7,896mn (-35.50% YoY), an attributable net profit of RMB448mn (-11.92% YoY), and a recurring net profit of RMB405mn (+44.22% YoY). For 2Q26, revenue was RMB3,943mn (-36.54% YoY, -0.26% QoQ), with an attributable net profit of RMB182mn (-41.59% YoY, -31.27% QoQ), below our estimate of RMB308mn, due to a contraction in the online freight platform business as the company adjusted its business mix. The gross margin rose by 9.1pp YoY to 24.2%. For the logistics business, the company focuses on core highway port logistics center assets and divesting low-efficiency non-core operations, which we expect to improve earnings resilience over the medium to long term. For the chemicals business, we expect the company to sustain growth on higher share with domestic key accounts, overseas expansion, and ramp-up of differentiated butadiene rubber products. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Logistics: focusing on core logistics assets
For 1H26, logistics revenue fell by 75.5% YoY to RMB1,632mn; the gross profit fell by 14.6% YoY to RMB562mn; the gross margin rose by 24.5pp YoY to 34.4%, driven mainly by the structural shift from shrinking the low-margin online freight business. 1) Online freight revenue declined by 88.7% YoY to RMB628mn; the gross profit dropped to RMB25mn, but the gross margin rose by 2.1pp YoY to 4.0%. 2) Highway port revenue fell by 5.6% YoY to RMB580mn, with the gross profit down by 3.2% YoY to RMB478mn and the gross margin up by 2.0pp to 82.5%. Park occupancy rose by 2pp YoY to 88.2%, as refined leasing and monetization of idle assets supported earnings resilience. 3) Supply chain logistics revenue decreased by 13.3% YoY to RMB243mn, with the gross margin down by 1.6pp to 6.6%. The company added 72 new customers across chemicals, new energy, and FMCG, and advanced regional consolidation and trunk-line integration. New projects are still in the early ramp-up phase.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given: 1) the company’s contraction of the low-margin online freight business and focus on core highway port assets and related operations, 2) the monetization of highway port assets, 3) ramp-up of new supply chain logistics projects, and 4) earnings recovery potentially taking longer than we expected, we cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB810/932/1,069mn (down by 7.83%/23.42%/25.78% from our prior estimates; three-year CAGR of 21.94%), with EPS of RMB0.29/0.34/0.39 and BVPS of RMB6.62/6.93/7.29. We assign a 2026E PB of 0.8x (previous: 1.0x, 1.5SD above the three-year average PB), based on the three-year average PB. The shift from premium to parity mainly reflects the 2Q earnings miss, continued pressure on logistics revenue and gross profit after the rapid contraction of online freight, and pending monetization of highway port assets and ramp-up of new supply chain logistics projects). Our target price is RMB5.30 (previous: RMB6.58). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: weaker logistics demand than we expect, slower cost optimization than we expect, and upstream raw-material price volatility.

　　传化智联发布半年报，2026年H1实现营收78.96亿元（yoy-35.50%），归母净利4.48亿元（yoy-11.92%），扣非净利4.05亿元（yoy+44.22%）。其中Q2实现营收39.43亿元（yoy-36.54%，qoq-0.26%），归母净利1.82亿元（yoy-41.59%，qoq-31.27%），低于我们预期（3.08亿），主因调整业务结构，大幅收缩网络货运平台业务规模，但整体毛利率同比提升9.1pct至24.2%。往后展望，物流业务聚焦公路港物流中心核心资产，剥离低效非主营业务，中长期有望提升盈利韧性；化学业务在国内大客户份额提升、海外市场拓展及差异化顺丁橡胶产品放量有望延续增长，维持“增持”。
　　物流：优化业务结构，资源聚焦核心物流资产
　　1H26物流业务实现收入16.32亿元，同比下降75.5%；毛利5.62亿元，同比下降14.6%；毛利率同比提升24.5pct至34.4%，主要为低毛利网络货运业务收缩带来的结构性提升。1）网络货运收入6.28亿元，同比下降88.7%；毛利降至0.25亿元，但毛利率同比提升2.1pct至4.0%。2）公路港收入5.80亿元，同比下降5.6%，毛利4.78亿元，同比下降3.2%，毛利率提升2.0pct至82.5%；园区出租率同比提升2pct至88.2%，精细化招商及闲置资产盘活支撑盈利韧性。3）供应链物流收入2.43亿元，同比下降13.3%，毛利率下降1.6pct至6.6%；公司围绕化工、新能源、快消三大行业，新增72家客户并推进区域集拼及干线整合，新项目仍处培育放量阶段。
　　化学：收入与毛利双增，顺丁橡胶表现突出
　　1H26化学业务实现收入62.64亿元，同比增长12.3%；毛利13.43亿元，同比增长14.4%；毛利率同比提升0.3pct至21.4%。1）纺织印染助剂收入39.47亿元，同比增长9.8%，毛利10.2亿元，同比增长9.2%；毛利率同比小幅下降0.3pct至25.9%，营收及毛利同比增长，受益于国内大客户份额提升、营销体系改革以及海外双品牌拓展。2）顺丁橡胶收入19.21亿元，同比增长25.3%，毛利同比增长约56%至2.7亿元，毛利率提升2.7pct至14.0%，是化学业务的主要增量，得益于稀土顺丁及差异化产品放量、国际销量同比增长23%至6.9万吨，以及透明顺丁橡胶等新品贡献。
　　主业盈利质量改善，一次性收益减少拖累表观利润
　　1H26非经常性损益仅0.43亿元，显著低于1H25约2.28亿元，主要由于上年同期处置子公司等一次性收益较多，因此归母净利润同比弱于扣非净利润；1H26投资收益同比下降59%至1.08亿元，但参股蚂蚁消费金融按持股比例贡献利润约0.97亿元、同比增长约33%，继续提供相对稳定的收益支撑。公司经营现金流由上年同期净流入1.26亿元转为净流出4.89亿元，主要因化学业务销量增长带动采购支出增加。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司收缩低毛利网络货运业务、聚焦核心公路港资产及相关业务，公路港资产盘活、供应链物流新项目放量及盈利修复所需时间或长于此前预期，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润至8.10/9.32/10.69亿元（较前值分别调整-7.83%/-23.42%/-25.78%，三年复合增速为21.94%），对应EPS为0.29/0.34/0.39元，对应BVPS为6.62/6.93/7.29元。给予公司26年0.8倍PB估值（前值1.0xPB，为过去三年PB均值加1.5个标准差；本次为过去三年平均PB，估值溢价转为平价主因Q2业绩低于预期，网络货运规模快速收缩后物流业务收入及毛利仍承压，公路港资产盘活和供应链物流新项目放量尚待兑现），对应目标价为5.30元（前值6.58元），维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：物流需求不及预期；成本优化不及预期；上游原材料价格波动。

Transfar Zhilian has reported 2025 revenue/attributable NP of RMB25,097/590mn RMB+6,247/-47.34mn (-14.80% YoY/4Q24: -RMB83.06mn). The 2025 attributable NP was in line with prior guidance but below our estimate (RMB740mn), mainly due to RMB490mn asset impairment provisions. Looking into 2026: 1) logistics—we are positive on the company's active exploration of road-port service upgrades and its ability to benefit from the bottoming-out recovery of logistics demand; 2) Chemicals—geopolitical conflicts may push up global oil prices, potentially causing temporary disruptions to demand and costs for the chemical business, but we remain optimistic about the company's steady growth in the medium-to-long term, supported by its technological advantages and global presence. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Logistics: focusing on core road/port business, with GPM up YoY
In 2025, the logistics business revenue/gross profit (GP) changed by -13.9/+2.0% YoY to RMB13,780/1,360mn, with the GPM rising 1.5pp YoY to 9.9%. 1) Smart road-port: revenue/GP reached RMB1,190/960mn (-2.1/-1.7% YoY), with a GPM of 80.9% (+0.3pp YoY). The company achieved business model upgrades and digital/intelligent/zero-carbon transformation of assets by introducing multi-industry clients and expanding diversified business formats, driving steady GPM improvement; 2) Internet freight platform: revenue/GP changed by -12.7/+41.4% YoY to RMB11,660/280mn, with GPM up 0.9pp YoY to 2.4%, as the segment continued optimizing its customer mix.
Chemicals: revenue/GP rose steadily despite soft demand
In 2025, the chemical business revenue/GP increased 5.6/7.1% YoY to RMB11,310/2,400mn, with the GPM rising 0.3pp YoY to 21.2%. 1) Printing & dyeing additives: revenue/GP reached RMB7,410/1,950mn (+4.8/+5.9% YoY), with a GPM of 26.3% (+0.3pp YoY). Despite weak industry demand due to tariff disruptions, the company achieved steady growth leveraging its leading position and diversified product portfolio; 2) Butadiene rubber: revenue/GP rose 20.2/39.7% YoY to RMB3,060/340mn, with a GPM of 11.1% (+1.6pp YoY). The company holds over 70% domestic market share in rare-earth butadiene rubber, focusing on R&D of high-value-added products, with rare-earth butadiene rubber sales volume up 28% YoY. It also expanded strategic clients both domestically and overseas, with overseas sales volume surging 69% YoY.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering potential periodic disruptions to chemical business costs and demand amid geopolitical uncertainties, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts to RMB878/1,217mn (-8.6/-3.4% vs. previous estimates) and introduce a new 2028 forecast of RMB1,441mn, with EPS of RMB0.32/0.44/0.52 and BVPS of RMB6.65/7.06/7.54. We apply a 1.0x 2026E PB (1.5SD above the 3-year historical average; previous: 1.09x 2025E PB, 2.5SD above the 3-year historical average), reflecting the logistics business's potential operational model transformation through extensive collaborations after divesting inefficient assets, while reducing the valuation premium due to short-term high oil prices potentially impacting the chemical business. Our target price is revised to RMB6.58 (previous: RMB5.95). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: weaker logistics demand than we expect; cost optimization falling short of our expectations; fluctuations in upstream raw material prices.

　　传化智联公布25年报业绩：2025年实现营收250.97亿元（yoy-6.07%），归母净利5.90亿元（yoy+282.12%）。其中Q4实现营收62.47亿元（yoy-14.80%），归母净利-4734万元、亏损同比收窄（4Q24：-8306万元）。25年归母净利符合业绩预告，但低于我们预期（7.4亿元），主因计提资产减值准备约4.9亿元。展望26年，1）物流：看好公司积极探索公路港服务转型升级，受益物流需求筑底回升；2）化学：地缘冲突或推升全球油价中枢，或对公司化学业务需求与成本端造成阶段性扰动，但中长期我们看好公司凭借技术优势与全球布局，实现稳健成长。维持“增持”。
　　物流：聚焦公路港核心业务，毛利率同比提升
　　2025年，物流业务实现营收137.8亿元，同比-13.9%，实现毛利13.6亿元，同比+2.0%，毛利率同比提升1.5pct至9.9%。1）智能公路港：25年实现营收11.9亿元（yoy-2.1%），毛利9.6亿元（yoy-1.7%），毛利率80.9%（yoy+0.3pct）。通过引入多行业客户、拓展多元业态，实现业务模式升级与资产数智化、零碳化转型，推动毛利率稳步提升；2）网络货运平台：25年实现营收116.6亿元（yoy-12.7%），毛利2.8亿元（yoy+41.4%），毛利率2.4%（yoy+0.9pct），持续调优客户结构。
　　化学：行业需求偏弱，但公司营收与毛利稳健增长
　　2025年，化学业务实现营收113.1亿元，同比+5.6%，实现毛利24.0亿元，同比+7.1%，毛利率同比提升0.3pct至21.2%。1）印染纺织助剂：25年实现营收74.1亿元（yoy+4.8%），毛利19.5亿元（yoy+5.9%），毛利率26.3%（yoy+0.3pct），虽然关税扰动下行业需求偏弱，但公司凭借龙头优势和多品类布局实现稳健增长；2）顺丁橡胶：25年实现营收30.6亿元（yoy+20.2%），毛利3.4亿元（yoy+39.7%），毛利率11.1%（yoy+1.6pct），公司稀土顺丁橡胶国内市占率超70%，产品端聚焦高附加值品类研发，稀土顺丁橡胶销量同比+28%，客户端拓展海内外战略客户，海外销量同比+69%。
　　立足物流场景，广泛合作实现降本增效
　　公司围绕公路港“人、车、货、场”，探索“场景+AI”的新业务模式，公司整合港内资源，积极探索具身智能场景应用。公司与杭州高新科创、杭州市数据集团与杭州宇树机器人共同投资设立杭州具身智能中试基地科技有限公司；联合蚂蚁科技、宇树科技、智元机器人等头部企业共同探索具身智能场景开发。此外，25年，参股公司重庆蚂蚁消金贡献投资收益1.6亿元，投资旨在加强公司供应链金融业务，推进公路物流区块链应用。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到地缘局势不确定性或阶段性扰动化学业务成本与需求，我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润至8.78亿元、12.17亿元（较前值分别调整-8.6%、-3.4%），并新增28年预测14.41亿元，对应EPS为0.32元、0.44元、0.52元，对应BPS分别为6.65元、7.06元和7.54元。给予26E1.0xPB（历史3年PB均值加1.5个标准差；前值为25E1.09xPB，历史3年PB均值加2.5个标准差，估值溢价主因物流业务通过剥离低效资产与业务，有望通过广泛合作实现营运模式转型；下调估值溢价主因短期油价高企或扰动化学业务），对应目标价6.58元（前值5.95元），维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：物流需求不及预期；成本优化不及预期；上游原材料价格波动。