Qianyuan Power has reported 9M26 results: revenue fell by 14.06% YoY to RMB1,864mn, the attributable net profit declined by 17.18% YoY to RMB408mn, and the recurring net profit decreased by 17.55% YoY to RMB405mn. For 3Q26, revenue was RMB752mn, down by 41.53% YoY but up by 16.79% QoQ, and the attributable net profit was RMB175mn, down by 52.06% YoY but up by 22.02% QoQ, at the lower end of our 3Q26 preview range of RMB146-256mn. For 3Q25, inflows across the company's hydropower basins were exceptionally strong and power generation hit a record high, creating a high base. The YoY decline in 3Q26 generation exerted pressure on earnings, but tariffs held steady and financial expenses kept falling. We view water inflow volatility as not undermining the long-term value of hydropower assets. Maintain BUY.
3Q generation -41.7% YoY; 9M average on-grid tariff held steady
For 9M26, water inflows were 6.2% stronger YoY, but diverged sharply by basin. Beipanjiang and Sanchahe inflows were 17.9% and 4.9% lower YoY, while Furongjiang inflows were 149.8% higher YoY. Power generation fell by 14.32% YoY to 6,789GWh. For 3Q26, generation was c. 2,753GWh, or 40.55% of the 9M26 total, down by 41.70% YoY, mainly because 3Q25 inflows were exceptionally strong and generation hit a record 4,723GWh. We estimate that the 9M26 average on-grid tariff, including tax, rose by 0.41% YoY to RMB0.314/kWh, broadly stable. For 3Q26, the company’s revenue fell by 41.53% YoY, slightly less than the decline in generation. With low marginal costs and rigid fixed costs in hydropower, the 3Q26 attributable net profit fell by 52.06% YoY, more than revenue.
Financial expenses kept falling; free cash flow remained high
For 3Q26, financial expenses declined by 27.32% YoY to RMB39.4mn. For 9M26, they fell by 28.92% YoY to RMB117mn. As 3Q26 inflows turned drier YoY and the net profit declined, the 9M26 operating cash flow fell by 11.40% YoY to RMB1,290mn, versus 16.76% YoY growth for 1H26. Cash spending on fixed asset purchases rose by 14.67% YoY to RMB159mn. Our simplified free cash flow to firm, defined as operating cash flow minus fixed asset purchases and financial expenses, fell by 12.05% YoY to RMB1,014mn, still a high level.
Target price of RMB23.56; maintain BUY
As water inflows across the company’s hydropower basins turned drier YoY from 3Q26, and 3Q generation in the main flood season accounts for a large share of annual output, we cut our 2026/2027/2028 generation forecasts by 20.93/21.13/21.38%. This lowers our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts by 41.14/37.69/38.03% to RMB407/478/479mn, with EPS of RMB0.95/1.12/1.12. Given high inflow volatility at small hydropower plants, we switch from PE to PB valuation to better reflect long-term hydropower value. Considering the average 2027E PB of 2.3x for comparable companies on Wind consensus, we apply 2.0x 2027E PB to our 2027E BVPS estimate of RMB11.78 to reflect lower earnings stability than for most of its peers, deriving our target price of RMB23.56 (previous: RMB27.30, based on 16.0x average 2026E-2027E PE).
Risks: high generation volatility at small hydropower plants, slower improvement in inflows or dividend payout than we expect, and tariff policy changes.

　　黔源电力发布三季报：1-9M26实现营收18.64亿元（yoy-14.06%），归母净利4.08亿元（yoy-17.18%），扣非净利4.05亿元（yoy-17.55%）；对应3Q26营收7.52亿元（yoy-41.53%，qoq+16.79%），归母净利1.75亿元（yoy-52.06%，qoq+22.02%），处于我们3Q26业绩前瞻报告预期的1.46-2.56亿元下区间。3Q25公司水电站所在流域来水大幅偏丰、电量创历史新高抬高基数，3Q26电量同比回落致业绩承压，但电价保持稳健、财务费用延续下降趋势，我们认为来水波动不改水电长期价值，维持“买入”评级。
　　3Q26发电量同比-41.7%，1-9M26平均上网电价同比保持稳健
　　1-9M26公司来水同比偏多6.2%，但流域分化明显，北盘江/三岔河流域分别同比偏少17.9%/4.9%，芙蓉江流域同比偏多149.8%。1-9M26公司实现发电量67.89亿千瓦时，同比-14.32%，其中3Q26发电量约27.53亿千瓦时，占1-9M26发电量的40.55%，同比-41.70%，主因上年同期来水大幅偏丰、3Q25单季47.23亿千瓦时发电量创历史新高。我们测算公司1-9M26平均上网电价（含税）同比+0.41%至0.314元/千瓦时，较为平稳。3Q26公司营收同比-41.53%，略小于电量同比降幅；由于水电发电边际成本较低、固定成本刚性，3Q26归母净利润同比降幅-52.06%大于收入同比降幅。
　　财务费用持续下降，自由现金流仍处于较高水平
　　3Q26，公司财务费用延续下行趋势，同比-27.32%至3,940万元；1-9M26，公司财务费用同比-28.92%至1.17亿元。由于3Q26来水同比转枯导致净利润同比下降，1-9M26公司经营净现金流同比-11.40%至12.90亿元（1H26yoy为+16.76%）；购建固定资产等现金流支出同比+14.67%至1.59亿元，公司自由现金流（简略测算自由现金流=经营净现金流-购建固定资产等现金流支出-财务费用）同比-12.05%至10.14亿元，但仍处于较高水平。
　　目标价23.56元，维持“买入”评级
　　由于3Q26以来公司水电所在流域来水整体同比转枯，且主汛期Q3发电量占比较高，对全年盈利影响较大，我们下调公司2026-2028年发电量20.93%/21.13%/21.38%，从而下调公司2026-2028年归母净利润41.14%/37.69%/38.03%至4.07/4.78/4.79亿元，对应EPS为0.95/1.12/1.12元。考虑小水电来水波动较大，为体现水电长期价值，我们由PE估值改为PB估值，基于2027EBVPS11.78元，参考可比公司2027EPB的Wind一致预期均值2.3x，考虑公司盈利稳定性低于大多数可比公司，给予公司2.0x2027EPB，对应目标价23.56元（前值27.30元基于16.0x2026-27E平均PE）。
　　风险提示：小水电发电量波动较大风险，来水/分红比例提升不及预期，电价政策变化风险。

Qianyuan Power released its 1H26 results,reporting revenue of RMB1,112mn(+25.92%YoY),attributable net profit of RMB233mn(+83.14%YoY),and recurring net profit of RMB231mn(+83.04%YoY).In 2Q26,revenue reached RMB644mn(+33.58%YoY,+37.42%QoQ)and attributable net profit was RMB144mn(+90.74%YoY,+61.00%QoQ),with attributable net profit slightly exceeding the upper end of our 2Q26 earnings preview range of RMB135mn,due to higher-than-we-expected hydropower generation and on-grid tariffs.In 1H26,the company's hydropower segment achieved both volume and price growth.Given that strong dividend payout ratio upside potential could enhance the value of cash flow in valuation,we maintain BUY.
1H26 hydropower segment saw volume&price rise
In 1H26,water inflows in the basins where the company's hydropower stations are located were above average YoY,enabling power generation of 3,738mn kWh(+29.70%YoY),driving total power generation up 26.09%YoY to 4.036bn kWh.In 1H26,the company's average hydropower on-grid tariff(tax included)was RMB0.3126/kWh(+1.99%YoY),which we attribute to ahigher generation mix from stations with higher tariffs.Benefiting from the sharp YoY increase in power generation,the company's 1H26 hydropower segment gross margin rose by 5.56pp YoY to 64.09%.
1H26 PV utilization hours rebounded YoY
In 1H26,the company's PV utilization hours increased by 12.48%YoY to 403.76 hours,but power generation declined by 6.58%YoY to 298mn kWh because the installed capacity of Guangzhao PV Power Plant(Gangping),Mamaya PV Power Plant(Yongxin),and Dongjing PV Power Plant(Zhenliang)was adjusted from DC-side to AC-side registration in accordance with Document No.136,causing their respective capacities to change from 300/300/150MW to 228.73/224.64/113.18MW.In 1H26,the company's PV on-grid tariff(tax included)fell by 11.10%YoY to RMB0.3373/kWh,because all electricity entered market trading,with transaction prices declining YoY due to intense competition in new energy grid integration.Consequently,the company's 1H26 PV gross margin fell by 20.83ppYoY to 3.45%.Qianyuan Power’s PV subsidiary,Zhenning Qianyuan New Energy,recorded anet loss of RMB1.2492mn in 1H26,translating to aloss on aYoY basis(vs aprofit of RMB3.5011mn in 1H25).
Financial expense on adeclining trajectory;FCF jumped YoY
In 1H26,the company's financial expenses continued their downward trend,declining by 29.70%YoY to RMB77.22mn.In 1H26,benefiting from YoY net profit growth driven by above-average water inflows,the company's net operating cash flow increased by 16.76%YoY to RMB578mn.Cash payments for the purchase and construction of fixed assets and other items fell by 19.50%YoY to RMB75.59mn,and the company's free cash flow(simplified as net operating cash flow minus cash payments for fixed assets etc.minus financial expenses)surged 45.99%YoY to RMB425mn.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the company's 1H26 hydropower generation and on-grid tariffs exceeded our expectations,we raise our 2026/2027/2028 hydropower utilization hour assumptions by 2.17/2.15/2.13%and our hydropower on-grid tariff assumptions by 1.85%each,thereby lifting our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts by 8.63/7.51/7.30%to RMB692/768/773mn,implying EPS of RMB1.62/1.80/1.81.Peers trade at an average 2026-2027E PE of 17.9x on Wind consensus(previous:17.8x).As our upward revisions factor in continued above-average water inflows,which is anatural factor subject to considerable uncertainty,we apply 16.0x to 2026-2027E average PE,deriving our target price of RMB27.30(previous:RMB25.27,based on 16.0x 2026-2027E average PE).
Risks:water inflows/dividend payout ratio increase below our expectations,power tariff policy change risks.

　　黔源电力发布半年报，1H26实现营收11.12亿元（yoy+25.92%），归母净利2.33亿元（yoy+83.14%），扣非净利2.31亿元（yoy+83.04%）。其中2Q26实现营收6.44亿元（yoy+33.58%，qoq+37.42%），归母净利1.44亿元（yoy+90.74%，qoq+61.00%），归母净利润略高于我们2Q26业绩前瞻报告预期上限的1.35亿元，主要是水电发电量和上网电价超预期。1H26，公司水电板块实现量价齐升，考虑公司分红比例有较大提升潜力、从而现金流价值在估值上的体现有望增强，维持“买入”评级。
　　1H26公司水电板块实现量价齐升
　　1H26公司水电站所在流域来水同比偏丰，实现发电量37.38亿千瓦时，同比+29.70%，带动公司总发电量同比+26.09%至40.36亿千瓦时。1H26，公司水电平均上网电价（含税）为0.3126元/千瓦时，同比+1.99%，我们认为或主因高电价电站发电量占比提升。得益于发电量同比高增，公司1H26水电板块毛利率同比+5.56pp至64.09%。
　　1H26公司光伏利用小时数同比修复，电价同比下降
　　1H26，公司光伏利用小时数同比+12.48%至403.76小时，但发电量同比-6.58%至2.98亿千瓦时，主要是公司光照光伏电站（岗坪光伏电站）、马马崖光伏电站（永新光伏电站）、董箐光伏电站（镇良光伏电站）的装机容量按照“136号文”精神从直流侧容量登记改为交流侧容量登记，其各自装机容量从300/300/150MW分别改为228.73/224.64/113.18MW。1H26，公司光伏上网电价（含税）同比-11.10%至0.3373元/千瓦时，主要是全电量进入市场交易，交易电价因新能源上网竞争激烈而同比下降。因此公司1H26光伏毛利率同比-20.83pp至3.45%。公司光伏子公司镇宁黔源新能源有限公司1H26净利润为-124.92万元，同比转亏（1H25为350.11万元）。
　　财务费用维持下行趋势，自由现金流同比高增
　　1H26，公司财务费用延续下行趋势，同比-29.70%至7722万元。1H26，得益于来水同比偏丰带来的净利润同比增长，公司经营净现金流同比+16.76%至5.78亿元；购建固定资产等现金流支出同比-19.50%至7559万元，公司自由现金流（简略测算自由现金流=经营净现金流-购建固定资产等现金流支出-财务费用）同比大幅增加45.99%至4.25亿元。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑公司1H26水电发电量及上网电价超预期，我们上调公司2026-2028年水电利用小时数2.17%/2.15%/2.13%和水电上网电价各1.85%，从而上调公司2026-2028年归母净利润8.63%/7.51%/7.30%至6.92/7.68/7.73亿元，对应EPS为1.62/1.80/1.81元。参考可比公司2026-2027年平均的Wind一致预期PE均值17.9x（前值17.8x），考虑上调公司盈利预测主要是预期来水偏丰持续，但来水为天然因素，未来不确定较大，给予公司16.0x2026-27E平均PE，对应目标价27.30元（前值25.27元基于16.0x2026-27E平均PE）。
　　风险提示：来水/分红比例提升不及预期，电价政策变化风险。

　　事件：1）公司发布2025年年报，2025年实现归母净利润6.00亿元，同比增长175.02%；2）公司发布2026年一季报，2026Q1实现归母净利润0.89亿元，同比增长72.09%；3）2025年度现金分红总额为2.10亿元，占归母净利润的比例为34.91%。
　　2025年全年及2026Q1来水偏丰电量高增，目前无核准在建装机。公司2025年度来水同比偏多45%，2025年发电量121.20亿千瓦时，同比上升71.90%，使发电收入及发电利润增加，其中水电发电量114.52亿千瓦时，同比增长80.89%；光伏发电量6.68亿千瓦时，同比减少7.22%。2025年公司上网电价0.3074元/千瓦时，同比下降0.0034元/千瓦时，其中水电上网电价0.3037元/千瓦时，同比下降0.0015元/千瓦时；光伏上网电价0.3711元/千瓦时，同比上升0.0108元/千瓦时。截至2025年底，公司控股总装机容量397.31万千瓦，其中水电323.35万千瓦，光伏73.96万千瓦，目前无核准在建项目。2026年一季度来水同比偏多52.30%，2026Q1发电量17.20亿千瓦时，同比增加17.53%，带动营收及利润增加。
　　华电集团旗下贵州区域清洁能源平台，大股东增持彰显发展信心与支持。公司在2025年4月16日披露控股股东及其一致行动人的增持计划，中国华电拟通过子公司华电产融增持公司股份，增持期限为公告之日起6个月内，拟通过集中竞价或大宗交易方式累计增持公司总股本的0.85%至1.70%。2025年10月16日公司发布增持计划实施完成暨增持结果公告，增持后公司控股股东中国华电及其一致行动人合计持股比例29.72%。公司在公告中明确，本次大股东增持公司的目的是基于对中国资本市场的坚定信心，也是基于对公司投资价值的认可和未来发展前景的信心。我们分析，此次增持完成后大股东持股比例有所提升，有望为公司后续发展提供更多空间。
　　集团旗下乌江水电位于贵州，9GW水电装机年毛利30亿量级。公司于2025年6月2日发布董事长辞职及补选董事的公告，补选杨焱为公司董事，并于6月19日选举杨焱为公司董事长。根据公司公告，杨焱历任乌江水电多个电厂管理层，曾担任黔源电力副总与董秘。杨焱的上任引发资本市场对于华电集团旗下贵州区域资产整合的猜想。从客观事实看，乌江水电与黔源电力的股权管理关系复杂，一方面，从乌江水电股权结构看，截至2025年底，乌江水电由华电集团控股（持股51%），另外由乌江能投大比例参股（持股49%，乌江能投实控人为贵州省国资委）。另一方面，乌江水电为黔源电力第二大股东，截至2026年3月底持股12.4%，并且黔源电力十一名董事会成员中，五位董事工作经历与乌江水电有关。
　　根据乌江水电债券募集说明书，截至2025年3月底，乌江水电控股在运装机1358.17万千瓦，其中水电、火电、光伏分别为869.5、450、38.67万千瓦。乌江水电在建主要为坪上抽水蓄能电站120万千瓦，预计2031年投产发电。分板块利润看，2024年乌江水电毛利28.15亿元，其中水电、火电（含供热）、光伏分别为29.6、-1.68、0.23亿元，利润总额18.27亿元，归母净利润16.19亿元。
　　公司短期业绩受降雨影响波动，但其现金流价值持续凸显。相比于大水电站，公司主要水电站库容及调节库容较小，调节能力相对较弱，导致公司年度间与季度间电量平滑能力并不突出，其发电能力常与短期降雨情况相关，可预测性较低。但我们在此前多篇报告强调，短期来水波动虽然影响公司短期业绩，但在整个水电站运营模式下，对公司整体价值影响甚微。公司近五年年均归属于普通股东的可分配现金流超过7亿元，永续经营下，假设7%股权折现率，对应公司合理市值超100亿元。更直观的理解公司现金流价值，一方面存在潜在分红提升空间，另一方面公司通过持续还债，利润中枢有望稳定上移。
　　盈利预测与评级：公司短期业绩受降雨波动较大，预计公司2026-2028年的归母净利润为6.05、6.13、6.30亿元，当前股价对应的PE分别为16、16、16倍，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：电价不及预期，来水不及预期，新能源政策不及预期。