NanJi E-Commerce(NJE)released its 2025 and 1Q26 results:2025 revenue was RMB2.60bn,down 22.6%YoY;attributable net loss was RMB282mn(vs anet loss of RMB237mn in 2024),below market expectations(Wind consensus attributable net profit of RMB360mn),mainly due to the company's proactive optimization and adjustment of certain business lines during the period,along with agoodwill impairment of RMB326mn,and excluding the impairment impact,the company achieved operating profit.In 1Q26,the company achieved revenue of RMB501mn,down 31.3%YoY;attributable net profit was RMB33mn,turning profitable YoY(vs anet loss of RMB14mn in 1Q25),with the profit sustaining its improvement trend.Looking ahead,we believe that as the company's core business completes the restructuring of its supply chain and dealer system,and the strategic adjustment of its subsidiary Beijing Time Internet Network gradually concludes,the overall revenue decline should in our view narrow.Meanwhile,business optimization is leading to asignificant improvement in spending efficiency,which we expect to drive an earlier improvement on the profit side.Reiterate BUY.
2025:focusing on strategic realignment,with soft revenue
In 2025,the company's revenue was down 22.6%YoY.By segment:1)Mobile internet media supply platform business revenue was down 19.2%YoY to RMB2,259mn,with gross margin down 1.6pp YoY to 3.1%,mainly due to the company's proactive optimization of some traditional business lines and reduced budgets from some leading industry advertisers.2)Brand comprehensive service business revenue was down 39.2%YoY to RMB164mn,with gross margin down 1.3pp YoY to 93.4%,mainly due to intensified industry competition and the company's proactive transformation and adjustment,and the company expects this business to improve in 2026.3)Dealer brand authorization business revenue was up 8.9%YoY to RMB46mn,with gross margin down 1.9pp YoY to 95.6%,with the authorization business developing robustly.4)Merchandise sales business revenue was down 62.0%YoY to RMB72mn,with gross margin up 23.9pp YoY to 34.6%.During the reporting period,NJE promoted the self-operated transformation of Nanji Ren to"Super Nanji Ren",expanding the offline self-operated retail business,and revenue declined temporarily during the transformation and adjustment period.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the company is in atransition period with short-term pressure on revenue and profit,we lower our 2026-2027 attributable NP estimates by 55.3%/56.7%to RMB257/344mn,and introduce a2028 estimate of RMB496mn(with aCAGR of 38.9%for attributable NP during the period).Given the significant short-term volatility in net profit during the company's transformation and adjustment period,we believe that valuation based on expected profit growth can more accurately reflect the discounting of future returns brought by transformation investments,so we switch to the PEG valuation method.Referring to the median PEG of 1.4x for comparable companies on iFind/Bloomberg consensus for 2027,and considering that the results of the company's transformation and adjustment have yet to be realized,we assign a0.73x PEG for 2027,corresponding to atarget price of RMB4.0(previous:RMB6.0,based on 26x 2026E PE).

　　南极电商发布2025年报及26年一季报：2025年实现营收26.0亿元，同比-22.6%；归母净亏损2.82亿元（上年同期净亏损2.37亿元），低于市场预期（Wind一致预期归母净利3.6亿元），主因公司期内主动优化调整部分业务线，同时计提了3.26亿元商誉减值，剔除减值影响后实现经营盈利。26Q1公司实现营收5.01亿元，同比-31.3%；归母净利0.33亿元，同比扭亏（上年同期净亏损0.14亿元），利润端延续改善趋势。展望后续，我们认为随着公司本部业务完成对供应链与经销商体系的重塑、子公司时间互联的战略调整逐步完成，整体收入降幅有望逐步收窄。同时业务优化带来费用投放效率的明显提升，有望带动利润端率先改善。维持“买入”评级。
　　2025年聚焦战略调整，收入有所承压
　　2025年公司收入同比-22.6%，分产品看：1）移动互联网媒体投放平台业务收入同比-19.2%至22.59亿元，毛利率同比-1.6pct至3.1%，主因公司主动优化部分传统业务线，以及部分行业头部广告主预算减少。2）品牌综合服务业务收入同比-39.2%至1.64亿元，毛利率同比-1.3pct至93.4%，主因行业竞争加剧且公司主动转型调整，公司预计26年度该业务将有所提升。3）经销商品牌授权业务收入同比+8.9%至0.46亿元，毛利率同比-1.9pct至95.6%，授权业务稳健发展。4）货品销售业务收入同比-62.0%至0.72亿元，毛利率同比+23.9pct至34.6%。期内公司推动南极人自营转型“超级南极人”，开拓线下自营零售业务，转型调整期收入阶段性下降。
　　剔除商誉减值后，2025年盈利能力季度间改善
　　25年公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为7.3%/2.7%/0.4%，同比分别-10.2/-0.4/-0.1pct，销售费用率显著优化，主因年内公司广告宣传及推广服务费减少。25年公司归母净利率为-10.8%，同比-3.8pct，亏损主因公司对时间互联及“卡帝乐鳄鱼”品牌计提了3.26亿元商誉减值，剔除影响后公司实现经营盈利。截至25年底（此次计提减值后），公司商誉为零。季度间看，我们将各季度的资产减值损失加回营业利润，得到Q1-Q4调整后的营业利润率分别为-1.5%/6.6%/5.9%/12.6%，盈利能力整体向好。
　　转型成效初步显现，26Q1实现扭亏
　　26Q1公司营收同比-31.3%，主因时间互联进行业务线结构的调整，优化部分渠道；南极本部自营业务逐渐向线下拓展，转型期货品销售收入同比下降，但授权服务收入同比上升抵消了部分影响。26Q1毛利率为14.1%，同比+1.1pct，得益于高毛利的综合服务业务收入增长、占比上升。26Q1公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为4.6%/2.7%/0.8%，同比分别-7.8/+0.2/+0.5pct，业务转型成效持续显现，销售费用率同比大幅改善。综合影响下，26Q1公司归母净利率为6.5%，同比+8.4pct实现扭亏。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司处于转型期，收入和利润短期有所承压，我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润55.3%/56.7%至2.57/3.44亿元，引入28年预测4.96亿元（期间归母净利CAGR为38.9%）。考虑到公司转型调整期净利润短期波动较大，我们认为基于预期盈利增速进行估值，能够更准确反映转型投入带来的未来收益折现，因此改用PEG估值法。参考可比公司2027年iFind/Bloomberg一致预期PEG中值1.4倍，考虑到公司转型调整成效有待释放，给予公司2027年0.73倍PEG，对应目标价4.0元（前值6.0元，对应2026年26倍PE）。
　　风险提示：行业竞争加剧、品牌形象受损、时间互联持续稳定盈利的风险。