Nhwa Pharmaceutical reported 9M26 revenue of RMB4.78bn(+6.81%YoY),attributable NP of RMB1.15bn(+3.63%YoY),and recurring NP of RMB1.16bn(+4.59%YoY).In 3Q26,revenue reached RMB1.56bn(+6.61%YoY),attributable NP RMB405mn(-0.01%YoY),and recurring NP RMB414mn(+1.06%YoY),reflecting steady revenue and earnings.We remain positive on the rapid volume ramp-up of controlled anesthetics and continued progress in innovative drug R&D.The stock trades at 18x 2026E PE.Maintain BUY.

Anesthesia:continued rapid growth in controlled anesthetics
We estimate single-digit YoY revenue growth for the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment in 9M26,including low-single-digit growth in anesthesia.1)Controlled anesthetics:volumes continue to ramp up rapidly(we estimate combined revenue from oxycodone,remifentanil,sufentanil and alfentanil grew nearly 20%in 9M26 and expect around 20%growth for full-year 2026).We estimate revenue from the new drug oliceridine fumarate increased approximately 80%in 9M26 and expect growth to remain near 80%for the full year.2)Non-controlled anesthetics:as etomidate is progressively included in provincial volume-based procurement programs,we expect amodest decline in 2026.Overall,we forecast single-digit anesthesia revenue growth in 2026,potentially recovering to above 10%in 2027 as controlled anesthetics continue to scale up and contribute alarger share of revenue.

Steady growth in psychiatry and neurology
1)Psychiatry:following the acquisition of exclusive commercialization rights in China to Easton Biopharma’s oxazepam in June 2025 and Luye Pharma’s risperidone microspheres and two paliperidone injectables in December 2025,we expect single-digit revenue growth in 2026.2)Neurology:supported by the rapid ramp-up of the Class 1innovative drug deutetrabenazine tablets,we forecast approximately 50%revenue growth for the product in 2026,driving around 30%growth in neurology revenue.

Accelerating R&D progress;BD deals begin to deliver
On September 30,the company announced the licensing of global rights outside Greater China to aclinical-stage innovative drug for sleep disorders to Somnivera,for an upfront payment of USD10.5mn,up to USD507mn in milestone payments and royalties.Multiple early-stage R&D programs are also advancing more rapidly.Key products and pipeline assets include:1)Oliceridine fumarate(TRV130):aμ-opioid receptor agonist approved in May 2023 and included in the National Reimbursement Drug List(NRDL)at end-2023.We expect peak sales of more than RMB2bn.2)Austedo(deutetrabenazine tablets):in-licensed from Teva in February 2024 and included in the NRDL at end-2020.We expect peak sales of more than RMB1bn.3)Early-stage pipeline:NH600001 injectable emulsion(anesthesia and sedation;a structurally modified etomidate compound;China NDA filed in August 2025,with approval expected in 2026);NHL35700(schizophrenia,Phase 3in China);NH102(depression,Phase 2in China);NH130(Parkinson’s disease psychosis,Phase 2in China);NH300231(schizophrenia,Phase 1in China);NH140068(schizophrenia,Phase 1in China);NH104(insomnia,Phase 1b/2 in China);NH160030(cancer pain,Phase 1b in China);and NH280105(first-in-class,Alzheimer’s disease,Phase 1in Australia),among others.





Earnings forecast and valuation
We leave our 2026–2028 earnings forecasts largely unchanged,with attributable NP of RMB1.21bn/1.37bn/1.58bn(+15%/+13%/+15%YoY).Our SOTP valuation implies an equity value of RMB31.78bn(RMB19.38bn for the established business and RMB12.40bn for the innovative drug business,previously RMB16.37bn/RMB12.42bn).We raise our target price to RMB31.37(previously RMB28.34,with the increase mainly reflecting ahigher valuation following the execution of the BD deal).

Risks:declining sales of key products under volume-based procurement,slower-than-expected R&D progress.

　　公司发布2026年三季报，1-3Q26实现营收47.76亿元（yoy+6.81%），归母净利11.46亿元（yoy+3.63%），扣非净利11.59亿元（yoy+4.59%），其中3Q26营收15.57亿元（yoy+6.61%），归母净利4.05亿元（yoy-0.01%），扣非净利4.14亿元（yoy+1.06%），收入利润稳健。我们看好公司管制麻醉产品快速放量及创新药研发持续兑现，当前市值对应26年18倍PE，维持“买入”评级。
　　麻醉线：管制麻醉维持快速增长
　　我们估计工业板块1-3Q26同比个位数收入增长，其中，我们估计麻醉板块1-3Q26同比小个位数收入增长：1）管制麻醉：快速放量（我们估算1-3Q26羟瑞舒阿合计收入增速近20%，26年预期收入增速~20%）；我们估计1-3Q26新药富马酸奥赛利定增速约80%，26年预期维持近80%增速。2）非管制麻醉：依托咪酯陆续纳入各省集采，我们预期26年小幅下滑。我们预计26年麻醉线收入个位数增长，27年伴随管制麻醉快速放量且占比提升，有望恢复至10%+增速。
　　精神、神经板块稳健增长
　　1）精神线：考虑到公司6M25获得苑东生物奥沙西泮国内独家商业化权益，12M25获得绿叶制药利培酮微球和两款帕利哌酮注射液国内独家商业化权益，我们预期26年全年个位数增速；2）神经线：考虑到1类新药氘丁苯那嗪片快速放量，我们预计26年氘丁苯那嗪片增速~50%，拉动神经线收入30%左右增长。
　　研发加速推进，BD交易开始兑现
　　9月30日，公司公告将处于临床阶段的一款治疗睡眠障碍创新药大中华区以外全球权益授权Somnivera公司，首付款1050万美金+最高5.07亿美金里程碑+分成。此外，多项早期研发管线加速推进：1）富马酸奥赛利定（TRV130）：μ阿片激动剂，5M23获批上市并于23年底纳入国家医保，我们预期峰值20+亿元；2）安泰坦（氘丁苯那嗪片）：2M24自Teva引进，20年底纳入国家医保，我们预期峰值10+亿元；3）早期管线：NH600001乳状注射剂（麻醉镇静，依托咪酯改构，8M25中国NDA，我们预期26年获批上市）、NHL35700（抗精分，中国3期临床）、NH102（抑郁症，中国2期临床）、NH130（帕金森精神障碍，中国2期临床）、NH300231（精神分裂，中国1期临床）、NH140068（精神分裂，中国1期临床）、NH104（失眠，中国1b/2期临床）、NH160030（癌痛，中国1b期）、NH280105（FIC，阿尔茨海默，澳洲1期）等。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们基本维持26-28年业绩预测，预计公司归母利润12.11、13.71、15.78亿元（+15%、13%、15%yoy）。SOTP估值法下给予公司317.8亿元估值（传统业务193.8亿元，创新业务124.0亿元，前值163.7/124.2亿元），上调目标价至31.37元（前值28.34元，主因BD交易兑现上调估值）。
　　风险提示：带量采购核心产品销售下滑的风险，产品研发进度不达预期。

　　业绩摘要：2026年上半年公司实现营业收入32.2亿元（+6.9%），归母净利润7.4亿元（+5.7%），毛利率73.9%（-1.3pcts），净利率23.0%（-0.3pcts）；单Q2公司实现收入16.1亿元（+7.3%），归母净利润4.2亿元（同比+5.9%，环比+31.3%），毛利率76.8%（同比+1.0pcts，环比+5.8pcts），净利率26.3%（同比-0.3pcts，环比+6.6pcts），二季度盈利能力明显提升。2026年上半年在依托咪酯集采及医保控费背景下，公司主业收入利润整体实现稳健增长。
　　麻醉板块持续消化集采影响，神经板块持续高增长。分业务板块：1）麻醉类产品收入16.68亿元（+2.1%），依托咪酯集采影响持续消化，奥赛利定、羟考酮、芬太尼系列实现较快增长；2）精神类产品收入6.51亿元（+4.9%），神经类产品收入2.22亿元（+33.7%），合作产品瑞可妥、瑞百莱、美比瑞、奥沙西泮贡献增量；3）商业收入4.61亿元（+17.2%）。
　　研发管线矩阵持续扩充，创新布局即将迎来收获期。目前公司在研项目70余个，其中创新药20余个，其中NH600001乳状注射液已递交上市申请，NHL35700开展3期临床，YH1910-Z02注射液、NH102片、YH1910-Z01鼻喷剂均已完成2期临床，NH130片已开启2期临床，Protollin鼻喷剂、NH104片等8个项目开启1期临床，创新矩阵持续扩充。8月18日，公司收到NH302注射液、NH130片两项1类新药临床批件，其中NH130获批开展阿尔茨海默病精神病性障碍ADP。
　　盈利预测及评级：预计2026-2028年公司收入66.17/75.87/86.23亿元，同比增长11.9%/14.7%/13.7%；归母净利润12.09/14.19/17.09亿元，同比增长14.3%/17.4%/20.5%。基于公司精麻板块重点品种持续上量、在研新药陆续步入临床中后期，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：市场竞争加剧，产品销售不及预期；新药研发进度不及预期；产品医保或集采降价超预期。

Nhwa Pharmaceutical has released 1H26 results,with 1H26 revenue reaching RMB3,218mn(+6.91%YoY).The attributable net profit grew by 5.74%YoY to RMB741mn,and the recurring net profit stood at RMB746mn(+6.65%YoY),maintaining astable growth trajectory.For 2Q26,revenue grew by 7.26%YoY to RMB1,608mn,with the attributable net profit up by 5.87%YoY to RMB423mn and the recurring net profit up by 7.03%YoY to RMB428mn.Maintain BUY,as we are positive on the rapid sales ramp of controlled anesthetic products and continued innovative drug pipeline delivery.
Anesthesia:controlled drugs grew rapidly;etomidate VBP weighed on growth
The anesthesia segment generated RMB1,668mn revenue in 1H26(+2.08%YoY),due to near-term pressure from etomidate’s inclusion in VBP programs in several provinces.We project high-single-digit growth for 2026.1)Controlled anesthetics:we estimate rapid revenue growth for oxycodone,remifentanil,sufentanil,and alfentanil in 1H26,with~20%growth anticipated for 2026.We also estimate rapid revenue growth for novel drug oliceridine fumarate in 1H26,with~80%growth anticipated for 2026.2)Non-controlled anesthetics:etomidate has been included in regional VBP programs(Hebei in early 2025,Sichuan/Chongqing in July 2025,Guangdong in early 2026).Considering base effects,we estimate 1H26 sales to remain under YoY pressure,with aslight decline for full-year 2026.
Psychiatry stabilized,neurology delivered strong growth
1)The psychiatry segment reported RMB651mn revenue in 1H26(+4.88%YoY).Following the company’s acquisition of domestic exclusive commercialization rights for oxazepam from Easton Bio in June 2025 and for risperidone microspheres/two paliperidone injections from Luye Pharma in December 2025,we project high-single-digit revenue growth for the psychiatry segment in 2026.2)The neurology segment achieved RMB222mn revenue in 1H26(+33.70%YoY).We estimate rapid revenue growth for deutetrabenazine tablets in 1H26 and anticipate~80%growth in 2026,driving over 40%expansion for the entire neurology segment.
R&D progress accelerated
1)TRV130:aμ-opioid receptor agonist approved in May 2023 and included in NRDL at end-2023.We expect the drug to achieve synergies with the fentanyl series,estimating apeak sales of RMB2bn+.2)Austedo(deutetrabenazine tablets):licensed from Teva in February 2024 and included in the NRDL at end-2020.We project peak sales of RMB1bn+.3)Early-stage pipeline:NH600001 injectable emulsion(a modified etomidate anesthetic and sedative,China NDA submitted in August 2025;the company expects approval at end-2026);NHL35700(anti-schizophrenia;China Phase III);NH102(depression;China Phase II completed,benchmarked against duloxetine);NH130(next-gen pimavanserin analog;Parkinson’s psychosis;China Phase II);NH104(targeting suvorexant;insomnia;China Phase 1b/2);NH160030(cancer pain;China Phase 1b);NH140068(schizophrenia;China Phase I);NH300231(targeting lumateperone equivalence for schizophrenia,China Phase I);and NH280105(first-in-class Alzheimer’s candidate,Australia Phase I).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We largely maintain our 2026-2028 earnings forecasts,projecting attributable net profit of RMB1,169/1,350/1,553mn(+11/15/15%YoY).Under our SOTP valuation method,we assign avaluation of RMB28.78bn(traditional business:RMB16.37bn;innovative business:RMB12.42bn;previous:RMB16.56/10.97bn)and raise our target price to RMB28.34(previous:RMB27.10,primarily due to an upward revision of our innovative drug business valuation).
Risks:downside risks from VBP-driven sales decline of core products;potential R&D delays.

　　投资要点
　　事件：公司近期发布2026年半年度报告，2026H1公司实现营业收入32.18亿元（+6.91%，括号内为同比，下同），实现归母净利润7.41亿元（+5.74%），实现扣非归母净利润7.46亿元（+6.65%）。2026Q2实现营业收入16.08亿元（+7.25%），实现归母净利润4.23亿元（+5.87%），实现扣非归母净利润4.28亿元（+7.03%），三项指标增速较2026Q1小幅上行，增长动能环比改善。
　　神经类增长强劲，麻醉板块保持平稳：分行业看，公司医药工业营收26.97亿元（+4.42%），商业医药营收4.61亿元（+17.20%）。分产品看，麻醉类营收16.68亿元（+2.08%），精神类营收6.51亿元（+4.88%），神经类收入2.22亿元（+33.70%）。麻醉板块产品结构持续优化，奥赛利定、羟考酮、阿芬太尼等镇痛新品加速推进医院准入，院端覆盖与销售规模稳步扩张。神经板块成为上半年增速最快的领域，公司加快安泰坦（氘丁苯那嗪片）院内及零售药房准入进度，驱动神经板块收入高速增长，打造公司全新增长引擎。报告期内，销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率分别为32.28%/4.26%/9.70%；麻醉板块毛利率同比提升0.87个百分点至91.67%，成本管控成效凸显。
　　后期创新药管线提速，增长梯队逐步完善：2026H1公司研发投入3.85亿元，约占总营业收入的12%，目前共有70余个在研项目。其中，麻醉镇静创新药NH600001乳状注射液已递交上市申请并顺利通过注册核查，预计2026年年底获批上市；精神分裂症药物NHL35700于2026年6月进入Ⅲ期临床，另有3个项目完成Ⅱ期临床研究，用于治疗阿尔茨海默病在研项目Protollin预计年内进入Ⅱa期。仿制药方面，右酮洛芬氨丁三醇注射液已获批，另有7个品种处于申报生产的审评阶段。短期由麻醉及BD新品贡献增量，中期由NH600001等后期管线接力赋能，公司增长动能有望进一步多元化。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：由于公司经营环境有所变化，且考虑到公司产品受集采的影响，我们将2026-2027年公司归母净利润预测值由15.23/17.60亿元调整至11.53/13.09亿元，预计2028年为14.85亿元，对应当前市值的PE分别为20/18/16倍，公司具备较强成长性且新品陆续获批放量，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：集采风险；新品研发进展与市场开拓不及预期；出海商业化不及预期；医药行业政策性风险等。