Jiuyuan Yinhai has reported 2025 revenue of RMB1,232mn,down by 8.02%YoY,and an attributable net profit of RMB77mn,up by 4.92%YoY.Both the top line and bottom line missed our prior estimates(RMB1,494mn revenue/RMB104mn attributable net profit),primarily due to slower revenue recognition in the medical insurance business than we expected coupled with rigid cost spending.For 4Q25,revenue was RMB545mn(down by 18.82%YoY)and the attributable net profit was RMB34mn(down by 37.41%YoY),reflecting ahigh base in 4Q24 when revenue recognition was deferred for some projects.The medical insurance segment,as the company’s core pillar,continues to consolidate its domestic market leadership,maintaining stable operation&maintenance of national medical insurance information platforms across 23 provinces.In the DRG/DIP payment reform area,the company added 70 hospital customers and now serves 400+hospitals,including more than 100 tertiary hospitals.We expect the medical insurance business to return to growth in 2026,driving an earnings recovery.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Smart city segment posted strong growth
The full-year gross margin in 2025 was 47.78%,up by 6.41pp YoY,mainly due to scaling back low-margin system integration business.The selling,administrative,and R&D expense ratios were 10.74%,7.95%,and 17.03%respectively,changing by-0.02pp,-0.08pp,and+4.19pp YoY.The notable increase in the R&D ratio reflects increased AI investment.The medical insurance segment faced near-term pressure,with revenue of RMB595mn,down by 18.22%YoY,mainly due to slowing procurement by some customers.The digital government segment expanded steadily,with revenue of RMB543mn,up by 1.94%YoY.Its social security business covers 25 provinces and has undertaken 12 national-level livelihood informationization projects.In housing finance,it marched into core markets such as Qingdao and Tai’an,with the‘Anju Guangsha’platform reaching 1.82mn registered users.The smart city segment fared well,with revenue of RMB78mn,up by 45.54%YoY.Benchmark‘one-network unified management’projects in Chongqing and Guangyuan have improved urban governance.
Company enhances competitiveness in data elements
In 2025,several national authorities issued policies on the data element sector.The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission proposed measures such as‘supporting the use of medical insurance data for innovative drug R&D’.We think that the industry is poised for accelerated growth in China.According to its announcement,the company has expertise in the three major livelihood informationization fields–medical insurance,digital government,and smart city–and has built several major projects,establishing astrong position in data elements.Its data element business has secured patents for data synchronization,while data products achieved nationwide adoption.It has developed technical solutions for trusted industry data spaces and full-link data element support platforms,enabling secure data circulation and management.We expect these capabilities to unlock industry data value and pave the way for abusiness model upgrade.In 2026,the company is to continue to refine its data element business,adding new earnings-growth drivers.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit of RMB106/142/182mn(-25/-21%vs our prior 2026/2027 forecasts of RMB141/180mn,as we lower our revenue projections due to slower demand release from government customers than we expected).The company’s peers trade at an average 2026E PE of 83.2x on Wind consensus.Given the company’s strong position in the data element sector,we assign a2026E PE of 85x,for our target price of RMB21.65(previous:RMB25.90,based on a2026E PE of 75x vs its then peers’average of 64.8x).
Risks:medical business expansion below our expectations;insufficient government payment capacity;intensifying market competition.

　　公司发布2025年年度报告，实现营业收入12.32亿元，同比下降8.02%，实现归母净利润0.77亿元，同比增长4.92%，收入及利润低于我们此前的预期（收入14.94亿元，归母净利润1.04亿元），主要是由于医疗医保业务收入确认节奏放缓而成本支出偏刚性。其中，25Q4营业收入5.45亿元，同比下降18.82%，归母净利润0.34亿元，同比下降37.41%，主要是由于24年部分收入确认延后导致24Q4基数较高。医疗医保板块作为公司业务核心支柱，持续巩固行业龙头地位，支撑全国23个省份医保信息平台稳定运维，在DRG/DIP支付方式改革领域新增70家医疗机构客户，累计服务超400家医院，其中三甲医院逾百家。我们预计2026年公司医疗医保业务有望重回增长区间，带动盈利端改善，维持增持评级。
　　25年毛利率显著提升，智慧城市板块增长亮眼
　　2025年公司全年毛利率为47.78%，同比+6.41pct，主要由于收缩低毛利的系统集成业务，销售/管理/研发费率分别为10.74%/7.95%/17.03%，同比变动-0.02/-0.08/4.19pct，研发费用率提升较多系公司加大AI领域投入。医疗医保板块短期承压，实现收入5.95亿元，同比下降18.22%，主要是由于部分客户采购节奏放缓；数字政务板块稳步拓展，收入5.43亿元，同比增长1.94%，人社业务覆盖25个省份，承建12项国家级民生信息化工程，住房金融领域成功突破青岛、泰安等核心市场，“安居广厦”平台注册用户达181.51万人；智慧城市板块表现亮眼，营业收入7771万元，同比增长45.54%，在重庆、广元等地打造的“一网统管”标杆项目，有效提升城市治理精细化水平。
　　数据要素产业加速发展，公司竞争力不断提升
　　2025年国家多个部门印发数据要素领域相关政策，国家医保局、国家卫生健康委提出“支持医保数据用于创新药研发”等举措，产业发展有望进入加速发展期。公司深耕“医疗医保、数字政务、智慧城市”三大民生信息化领域，承建多个重大项目，构建数据要素领域卡位优势。公司数据要素业务多点突破，取得数据同步相关发明专利，多款数据产品在全国多地投入使用。公司研发行业数据可信空间技术方案、数据要素全链路技术支撑平台，形成数据安全流通与管理关键技术能力，赋能行业数据价值发掘，迎来商业模式升级。2026年公司将继续完善数据要素业务布局，带来新的业务增长。
　　AI产品力持续提升，“闻语”民生大模型加速落地
　　公司加速技术创新与业务场景融合，自研“闻语”民生大模型持续迭代，在医疗、政务等领域落地50余个智能应用场景。医疗健康领域，“久问”医疗智能体解决方案成功发布，新一代医院HIS-V8完成信创适配与智能化升级，中标阿克苏地区公立医院高质量发展信息化等重大项目；医保领域创新推出经办服务、基金监管等四大智能体，“津医保”“医保云”APP注册用户双双破千万；数字政务领域，人社AI员工、政务服务AI客服等产品在广东、四川等地落地。2026年公司将持续推动“闻语”大模型与行业场景深度适配，拓展具身智能等创新应用，在智慧民生实现更高质量发展。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计公司26-28年归母净利润为1.06/1.42/1.82亿元（前值26-27为1.41/1.80亿元，分别下调25%/21%，主要是考虑到政府客户需求释放节奏放缓下调收入所致）。可比公司Wind一致预期26PE均值为83.2倍，考虑公司数据要素领域卡位优势，给予公司26年85倍PE，目标价21.65元（前值25.9元，对应75倍26PE，可比均值64.8倍26PE）。
　　风险提示：医疗业务推广低于预期；政府支付能力不足；市场竞争加剧。