Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank's 1H26 attributable net profit/revenue/ PPOP changed by +2.71%/-5.21%/-3.73% YoY (+0.20pp/-0.78pp/-5.21pp vs 1Q26). Annualized ROA/ROE for January-June fell 0.02pp/0.22pp YoY to 0.88%/ 9.74%. Revenue remained pressured by lower non-interest income, but improved funding costs, expense reduction, and lower credit impairment losses supported positive profit growth. Maintain BUY.
Corporate lending drove balance sheet expansion
At end-June, total assets/loans/deposits grew 6.0%/7.5%/6.8% YoY, down 1.7pp/ 0.7pp/1.3pp vs 1Q26. Balance sheet expansion remained solid, though loan growth moderated at the margin. Loans increased RMB8.7bn in 1H26 from end-2025, with corporate/retail/bill financing contributing 83%/3%/14% of the increment. Corporate loans were the main driver. Agriculture-related and small/micro loans at the parent bank rose RMB7.7bn from the start of the year, and inclusive small & micro enterprise loans grew 9.4%, underscoring the bank's small & micro business focus. Net interest income fell 0.3% YoY in 1H26, with growth down 1.1pp vs 1Q26. NIM was 1.35% in 1H26, flat QoQ. Interest-earning asset yield/interest-bearing liability cost fell 26bp/26bp from end-2025 to 2.73%/1.53%. Deposit cost fell 27bp from end-2025 to 1.47%, largely offsetting asset yield pressure. Demand deposit ratio fell 1.5pp from end-2025 to 19.8% at end-June. Corporate/personal time deposits rose 22.4%/8.8% from end-2025.
Fee income recovered; cost control supported earnings
Non-interest income fell 12.5% YoY in 1H26 (1Q26: -11.8%), dragged by a high base in bond-related gains. Fee income grew 16.0% YoY in 1H26 (1Q26: +23.3%), with the improvement driven more by expense reduction: fee and commission expenses fell 30.7% YoY, while fee and commission income fell 7.5%. Agency/e-banking/settlement fee income fell 7.0%/8.4%/13.5% YoY, while other fee income rose 1.1%. Other non-interest income fell 14.2% YoY in 1H26 (1Q26: -14.7%). Investment gains/fair value changes/FX gains fell 7.8%/48.8%/94.9% YoY. The decline in investment gains reflected lower holding gains, while fair value changes fell largely due to a higher asset base. Operating expenses came down 9.4% YoY in 1H26, and the cost-to-income ratio declined 1.23pp YoY to 26.64%. Cost discipline effectively cushioned profit pressure.
We assign a 2026E target PB of 0.63x
Given net interest income disruptions, we forecast 2026/2027/2028 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB2.0/2.1/2.1bn, down 3.21%/6.33%/9.33% from our previous forecasts. Our 2026E BVPS forecast is RMB8.19 (previously RMB8.22), implying a PB of 0.54x. Comparable companies trade at a 2026E Wind consensus PB average of 0.52x (previously 0.52x). We believe the bank’s small & micro business transformation warrants a valuation premium, but the earnings improvement trend remains to be seen. We assign a 2026E PB of 0.63x (previously 0.65x) and a target price of RMB5.15 (previously RMB5.34). BUY.
Risks: policy implementation falling short of our expectations, and economic recovery falling short of our expectations.

　　张家港行26H1归母净利润、营收、PPOP同比+2.71%、-5.21%、-3.73%，增速较26Q1分别+0.20pct、-0.78pct、-5.21pct。1-6月年化ROA、ROE分别同比-0.02pct、-0.22pct至0.88%、9.74%。虽然公司营收仍受非息收入回落拖累，但负债成本改善、费用压降及信用减值损失下降支撑利润保持正增长，维持“买入”评级。
　　对公驱动扩表，负债成本改善
　　6月末总资产、贷款、存款同比增速分别为+6.0%、+7.5%、+6.8%，增速较26Q1分别-1.7pct、-0.7pct、-1.3pct，规模保持较快增长，但信贷增速边际有所放缓。26H1贷款较25年末增加87亿元，对公/零售/票据增量占比分别为83%/3%/14%，信贷投放主要由对公贷款驱动；母行涉农及小微贷款较年初增加77亿元，普惠型小微企业贷款增速为9.4%，小微业务定位延续。26H1净利息收入同比-0.3%，增速较26Q1-1.1pct。26H1净息差1.35%，环比持平，生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率分别较25年末-26bp、-26bp至2.73%、1.53%；存款成本率较25年末-27bp至1.47%，负债端降本基本对冲资产收益率下行压力。6月末存款活期率较25年末-1.5pct至19.8%，公司、个人定期存款分别较25年末+22.4%、+8.8%。
　　中收有所修复，成本压降支撑盈利
　　26H1非息收入同比-12.5%（26Q1：-11.8%），债市相关收益高基数回落是主要拖累。26H1中间业务收入同比+16.0%（26Q1：+23.3%），同比改善更多来自支出压降：手续费及佣金支出同比-30.7%，手续费及佣金收入同比-7.5%。代理业务、电子银行、结算手续费收入分别同比-7.0%、-8.4%、-13.5%，其他手续费收入同比+1.1%。26H1其他非息收入同比-14.2%（26Q1：-14.7%）。投资收益、公允价值变动收益、汇兑收益分别同比-7.8%、-48.8%、-94.9%，其中投资收益下降主要源于持有收益回落，公允价值变动收益下降主要因为资产基数较高。26H1业务及管理费同比-9.4%，成本收入比同比-1.23pct至26.64%，费用管控有效缓释利润压力。
　　资产质量整体稳健，信用成本压降支撑盈利
　　6月末不良贷款率、拨备覆盖率分别为0.94%、325%，环比持平、+4.4pct，资产质量保持稳定，风险抵补能力仍较充足。关注率较25年末-15bp至1.15%；逾期90天以上贷款/不良贷款较25年末+2pct至90%。26H1信用减值损失同比-18.7%，减值计提下降仍是利润增长的重要支撑。零售信用减值损失同比+52.3%至4.67亿元，而对公信用减值损失同比-75.8%至1.33亿元，分部间减值表现明显分化，零售端风险压力有所上升。26H1不良生成率同比降低17bp至0.94%，年化信用成本同比降低28bp至0.84%。6月末资本充足率、一级资本充足率、核心一级资本充足率分别为11.79%、10.64%、10.63%，较26Q1分别-1.29pct、-1.28pct、-0.10pct；总资本和一级资本下降主要受永续债赎回影响，核心一级资本保持相对稳定。
　　给予26年目标PB0.63倍
　　鉴于净利息收入扰动，我们预测26-28年归母净利润为20/21/21亿元（较前值-3.21%/-6.33%/-9.33%）。26年BVPS预测值8.19元（前值8.22元），对应PB0.54倍。可比公司26年Wind一致预测PB均值为0.52倍（前值0.52倍），公司推动小微转型，应享受一定估值溢价，但后续业绩改善趋势有待观察，给予26年目标PB0.63倍（前值0.65倍），给予26年目标价5.15元（前值5.34元），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：政策推进力度不及预期；经济修复力度不及预期。

　　事件：张家港行披露2025年年报及2026年一季报。25A营业收入、核心营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速分别为0.75%、-8.03%、1.64%、5.35%；26Q1营业收入、核心营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速分别为-4.43%、1.93%、1.03%、2.50%，增速分别较25A变动-5.18pct、+9.96pct、-0.60pct、-2.84pct。一季度核心营收增速明显提高并回正。
　　具体来看：
　　（1）26Q1净利息收入增速提高，单季测算息差回升。26Q1公司净利息收入同比增长0.79%，增速环比去年末大幅提高10.95pct。一方面公司资产规模平稳增长，26Q1末信贷增速提高至8.20%，主要是对公贷款贡献；另一方面，26Q1公司测算单季净息差1.42%，单季度环比提升2bp，张家港行个人定期占总存款比重超过50%，高息定存到期后重定价贡献较大，单季负债成本环比压降16bp，对息差形成支撑。张家港行一季度存款同比增长8.12%，开门红揽储成效较好。
　　（2）其他非息负增，OCI资产浮盈兑现力度预计下降。26Q1公司中收在去年的高基数下增速放缓至23.3%，仍保持正增。26Q1其他非息收入同比增长-14.7%，较25A下降38.4pct。在25Q1公允价值变动损益高基数下，26Q1公允价值变动损益负增，同比下降124.8%，投资收益同比增速也转负，AC兑现收益力度不低，26Q1AC资产余额也有所下降，可能是OCI类资产收益兑现下降拖累投资收益。
　　（3）资产质量保持平稳。公司26Q1末贷款不良率为0.94%，环比持平；公司26Q1关注率1.15%，环比下降15bp；25年下半年逾期率上升16bp至1.80%，各项指标总体平稳。拨备方面，26Q1末拨备覆盖率320.69%，环比下降8.18pct，不过由于关注率下降较多，超额拨备/归母净利润（TTM）环比回升，整体拨备安全垫仍夯实。
　　（4）分红率提升。公司25年实施了中期分红，同时全年用归母普通股净利润计算的分红率从24年的27.43%提升了1.13pct至28.56%。
　　投资建议：公司在张家港市客户基础广泛而扎实，同时在苏州、无锡、南通及青岛等经济活跃地区设有异地机构网点，市场空间潜力广阔。公司资产质量稳定，分红稳步提升，股息率排名靠前。预计2026-2028年营业收入分别为48.66/51.18/54.71亿元，同比增长2.5%/5.2%/6.9%；归母净利润为20.81/21.90/23.08亿元，同比增长5.1%/5.3%/5.4%。对应EPS分别为0.81/0.86/0.90元，对应2026年5月12日股价的PE分别为5.5/5.2/4.9倍。首次覆盖，给予“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：经济基本面改善偏慢；政策力度低于预期；资产质量出现波动。

Zhangjiagang RCB has reported 2025 attributable net profit/revenue/PPOP growth of 5.3/0.8/1.5%YoY,with sequential changes of-0.5/-0.4/+1.0pp versus the 9M25 figures.The profit and revenue growth largely matched our previous forecasts of 5.7/1.2%.While balance sheet expansion accelerated with strong non-interest income performance,NIM pressure persisted.ROE/ROA were 10.36/0.89%(-0.69pp YoY/+0.01pp YoY).The bank has proposed a2025 dividend of RMB0.22 per share,implying a27.2%payout ratio and a4.87%yield(based on the 1April 2026 closing price).Maintain BUY,given that business transformation continues yielding results with stable operational efficiency.
Corporate lending drove growth,NIM underwent marginal decline
Total assets/loans/deposits grew by 3.8/8.0/6.4%YoY at 2025 year-end,accelerating by 1.3/0.6/0.1pp vs the end-September levels.New loan distribution showed 2/86/12%shares from retail/corporate/bill financing,with wholesale&retail sector loans up by 27%YoY to RMB21.5bn as the key corporate credit driver.Net interest income declined by 10.2%YoY in 2025(-1.8pp versus 9M25).The NIM was compressed by 3bp vs 3Q25 to 1.39%.The yield on interest-earning assets/cost of interest-bearing liabilities were 2.99/1.79%in 2025,down by 11/7bp versus 1H25.Continued liability cost improvement partially offset NIM pressure,with the CASA ratio rising by 0.7pp to 21.2%since 1H25.We expect further relief in 2026 from the repricing of maturing time deposits.
Fee income rallied;unrealized gains lifted non-interest income
Non-interest income rose by 28.4%YoY in 2025(+6.0pp versus 9M25),lifting its revenue contribution by 7.8pp YoY to 35.5%.Fee income jumped by 235.3%YoY(+158.6pp versus 9M25),driven by both alow base effect and a41.0%YoY reduction in agency business commissions.Other non-interest income grew by 23.7%YoY(+3.6pp versus 9M25),primarily reflecting realized gains from financial asset disposals amid bond market volatility,with combined investment income and fair-value changes up by 30.2%YoY.The cost-to-income ratio improved by 0.4pp YoY to 35.4%,demonstrating operational efficiency gains.
NPL ratio stable QoQ;ample capital buffers
The NPL ratio and provision coverage ratio were 0.94%(flat QoQ)and 329%(-26pp QoQ)at 2025 year-end,maintaining robust risk absorption capacity.Leading indicators showed divergence–the special mention loan ratio edged down by 1bp to 1.30%versus end-June,while the NPL formation rate rose by 8bp to 1.20%versus 1H25.Credit cost declined by 8bp YoY to 0.58%for 2025,supporting profit growth.At end-2025,the CAR and core Tier 1CAR reached 13.35/10.93%(-0.14/-0.13pp QoQ),reflecting accelerated capital consumption from loan expansion,although remaining at comfortable levels to support business development,in our view.
Targeting 0.65x 2026E PB
We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB2.1/2.2/2.3bn(largely unchanged from prior 2026/2027 estimates),with 5.5/5.8/5.8%YoY growth.We project 2026E BVPS at RMB8.22,implying 0.55x PB.With its peers trading at an average of 0.52x(previous:0.55x)on Wind consensus,given the bank’s SME transformation progress and steady balance sheet expansion,we assign a0.65x 2026E target PB(previous:0.63x),for our target price of RMB5.34(previous:RMB5.36).Maintain BUY.
Risks:slower policy implementation than we expect;weaker economic recovery than we expect.

　　事件:
　　4月30日，张家港行发布2026年一季度报告。
　　投资要点:
　　2026Q1公司营业收入同比-4.43%，归母净利润同比+2.50%。公司净利息收入与中间业务收入回暖修复，存贷规模稳步扩张、对公信贷发力，资产质量保持优秀，我们维持“增持”评级。
　　中收高增结构优化，利息收入企稳回升。2026Q1，张家港行实现营业收入12.66亿元，同比-4.43%；实现归母净利润5.76亿元，同比增长2.50%。手续费及佣金净收入同比增长23.26%至5097万元，增速较2025年全年大幅提升27.92个百分点。非息收入结构优化。利息净收入同比增长0.79%至7.81亿元，扭转2025年下降趋势。
　　一季度资产扩容提速，存款对公贷款双增长。截至2026Q1末，张家港行资产总额达2404亿元，较2025年末增长5.78%，增速较2025年末同比增速提升1.98个百分点。客户存款总额为1895亿元，较2025年末增长6.55%。贷款总额1562亿元，较上年末增长5.29%，其中对公贷款902亿元，较2025年末增9.27%。
　　资产质量保持稳健，风控与经营效率持续向好。2026Q1末，公司不良贷款率为0.94%，较2025年末持平；拨备覆盖率320.69%，保持较高水平，风险抵补能力依然充足。成本收入比25.02%，较上年同期下降4.50个百分点。
　　盈利预测和投资评级：张家港行风控体系稳健，维持“增持”评级。们预测2026-2028年营收为48.56亿元、50.57亿元、52.97亿元，同比增速为2.30%、4.13%、4.76%；归母净利润为20.42亿元、21.36亿元、22.63亿元，同比增速为3.17%、4.61%、5.95%，EPS为0.84、0.87、0.93元；P/E为5.54、5.30、5.00倍，P/B为0.56、0.51、0.47倍。
　　风险提示：金融监管政策发生重大变化；房地产领域风险集中暴露；经济回暖过程中发生黑天鹅事件；债券市场发生异常波动。企业偿债能力下降，资产质量大幅恶化。