Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the still-slow progress in property new construction starts and infrastructure projects since 2026, we slightly lower our 2026 revenue and net profit forecasts while broadly maintaining 2027-2028 earnings. We now project attributable net profit of RMB93/114/130mn for 2026/2027/2028 (down 11.8/0.2/0.4% from our prior forecasts of RMB106/114/130mn). Comparable companies currently trade at a 2026E PE of 24.6x on Wind consensus. CAPOL's position as a design leader with extensive project experience and rich data assets positions it to benefit from AI adoption. With this in mind, we apply a 28x 2026E PE (vs 35x previously and 31x peers average). Our target price is RMB13.55 (previous: RMB18.90). Maintain BUY.

　　公司公布上半年业绩：26H1实现营收4.14亿元，同比-31.0%，归母净利0.35亿元，同比+0.1%，扣非归母净利0.25亿元，同比-18.7%，营收下滑主要系公司25年8月剥离低毛利的数字文化业务。公司26Q2实现营收/归母净利2.16/0.31亿元，同比-35.9%/-6.0%，归母净利符合我们预期的0.31亿元。我们认为，公司剥离数字文化业务后盈利结构优化，主业在行业下行期展现韧性，今年7月末已完成转债兑付，后续财务压力减轻。公司坚定推进"设计+科技"战略，在AI与BIM领域持续取得进展，维持"买入"评级。
　　剥离数字文化业务后盈利能力明显回升
　　分业务看，1）公司26H1建筑设计业务实现营收3.41亿元，同比-16.7%，毛利率37.11%，同比-1.4pct；其中装配式建筑设计收入1.17亿元，同比-30.3%，对设计收入下降影响较大；但商业综合体设计业务表现亮眼，实现收入0.49亿元，同比+29.1%，毛利率38.6%，同比+27.1pct，恢复显著。2）造价咨询业务实现收入0.45亿元，同比-4.5%，毛利率为19.8%，同比+3.2pct，盈利质量提升明显。公司26H1综合毛利率为33.5%，较上年同期的24.6%大幅提升8.9pct，主要系上年同期毛利率为负的数字文化业务已于26年8月进行了剥离，该业务26H1实现收入1.08亿元。
　　持续推进降本增效和夯实资产质量
　　公司26H1期间费用率20.01%，同比+4.2pct，主要系营收规模下降所致。其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为3.0%/8.7%/4.4%/3.9%，其中财务费用同比+27.2%，主要系计提可转债利息；公司4.5亿元可转债已于26年7月到期兑付，我们预计未来财务费用有望下降。公司26H1管理费用金额同比-30.7%，主要系期末员工较年初减少122人，同时体现了公司良好的成本控制能力。公司继续夯实资产质量和现金流，26H1计提信用及资产减值损失合计0.25亿元，较去年同期的0.13亿元大幅增加；经营性现金净流出0.68亿元，但较去年同期净流出的1.83亿元大幅收窄，主因文化业务收缩。
　　积极推动公司数字化向智能化转型
　　公司持续推进数字化转型，在BIM技术和人工智能技术研发上积累了丰硕的成果，如持续研发华阳速建平台，自2008年启动BIM研究，已参与32项国家及市级标准制定，自主研发的建筑全产业链在线管理平台—CAPOLiBIM平台已更新至V7.0版，并获工信部中国信通院自主研创优秀级及国产兼容认证。我们认为建筑行业数字化转型大势所趋，而公司坚定推进"设计+科技"战略，且具有数字化BIM及智能化AI技术优势和装配式建筑研发和设计优势，有望受益于行业政策和技术发展趋势，拓展市场份额。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑26年以来房地产新开工和基建项目进展仍然偏缓，我们小幅下调公司26年收入和净利润预测，并基本保持27-28年盈利，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为0.93/1.14/1.30亿元（较前值1.06/1.14/1.30亿元分别下调11.8%/0.2%/0.4%）。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为24.6倍，考虑公司作为项目设计经验丰富、数据资产积累充分的建筑设计龙头，有望率先受益AI赋能，给予公司26年28倍PE，目标价13.55元（前值18.90元，对应26年35xPE，可比均值31xPE），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：市政基建或地产投资恢复低于预期，公司毛利率提升低于预期。

CAPOL has reported 2025 revenue of RMB1.20bn(+3.10%YoY)and an attributable net profit of RMB91mn(-27.70%YoY),which missed our prior estimate of RMB108mn due to losses from the digital culture segment.Following the divestment of its cultural subsidiary in August 2025,revenue for 4Q25 reached RMB309mn(-13%YoY)with an attributable net profit of RMB20mn(+49%YoY).We view positively CAPOL’s steadfast execution of its“design&technology”strategy,evidenced by continued R&D investments in AI and BIM to enhance core competitiveness.Meanwhile,it has maintained stable cash flows and dividend payouts.Post disposal of its digital culture business,CAPOL is pursuing industrial upgrading aligned with China’s“new quality productive forces”initiative to cultivate new earnings growth drivers.Maintain BUY.
Digital culture:rapid revenue contribution but dragged margin
CAPOL’s gross margin declined 7.46pp YoY to 27.64%in 2025,primarily dragged down by the digital culture segment.While this business generated RMB176mn in revenue(+1,984.37%YoY),accounting for 14.65%of total sales,it recorded anegative gross margin of-14.45%.Following divestment of the related subsidiary in August 2025,we expect the segment’s impact on company profitability to be eliminated going forward.In traditional businesses,architectural design revenue fell 14.49%YoY to RMB812mn in 2025 with the gross margin down 0.5pp YoY to 35.95%.Within this segment,prefabricated building design revenue fell 26.70%YoY to RMB325mn;cost consulting services delivered RMB148mn in revenue(-3.54%YoY)with a41.55%gross margin.Full-process consulting&construction agency management services revenue grew 4.91%YoY to RMB44mn in 2025.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As we expect property sales and new construction starts to stabilize further,coupled with the divestment of low-margin cultural operations,we modestly raise our revenue and gross margin forecasts.We now project attributable net profit of RMB106/114/130mn for 2026/2027/2028(+9/+23%upward revisions from our prior estimates of RMB97/93mn for 2026/2027).Comparable companies currently trade at a2026E PE of 31x on Wind consensus.Given CAPOL’s position as adesign leader with extensive project experience,BIM expertise,and rich data assets,making it well-positioned to benefit from AI adoption,we apply a35x 2026E PE(vs 40x for 2025 previously and 35x peer average).Our target price is RMB18.90(previous:RMB21.97).Maintain BUY.