China National Medicines Corp(CNMC)has reported 2025 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring attributable NP of RMB52,468/1,997/1,971mn(+3.7/-0.2/-1.3%YoY),broadly in line with our expectations(revenue RMB52.7bn/attributable NP RMB2.02bn).The 4Q25 figures were RMB13,087/504/500mn(+4.1/-2.8/-1.3%YoY).During 2025,the company's Beijing distribution business remained stable,while revenue from narcotic and psychotropic(N&P)drug distribution maintained rapid growth.However,due to factors such as volume-based procurement(VBP)and intensified competition,some subsidiaries faced earnings pressure.As aresult,the company achieved steady revenue growth in 2025,while profit growth was strained.We believe CNMC's core businesses remain solid with arobust long-term growth outlook.Maintain BUY.
Parent company stable,Guorui Pharmaceuticals dragged profit
CNMC's 2025 earnings growth was dragged by some subsidiaries,particularly Guorui Pharmaceuticals.Among its subsidiaries,Sinopharm Group Beijing/Sinopharm Group Beijing Huahong/Beijing Konruns/Tianxingpuxin/Guorui Pharmaceuticals/National Medicines Prospect Dentech's revenues were RMB14,945/6,045/3,603/5,270/415/158mn(+1.1/-3.8/+1.2/-3.6/-11.7/-2.6%YoY),with NPs of RMB359/82/102/76/(45)/76mn(+0.6/+1.6/+3.3/-17.8/-240/+1.7%YoY).The company's equity income from associates was RMB547mn for 2025,up 6.2%YoY.From the parent company's standalone financial statements,2025 NP reached RMB1,819mn(+17.2%YoY).Excluding equity income,parent company's NP was RMB1,272mn(+22.6%YoY),while attributable NP at the consolidated level was RMB1,450mn(-2.4%YoY).The net loss recorded by Guorui Pharmaceuticals in 2025 weighed on overall attributable NP.
Gross margin dropped,operating cash flow improved markedly
CNMC's 2025 sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 1.38/0.89/0.13/-0.04%(-0.21/-0.03/-0.01/-0.09pp YoY).The company maintained strict expense control,resulting in declines across all expense ratios.The 2025 gross margin was 6.59%,down 0.51pp YoY,which we attribute to alower contribution from the higher-margin industrial segment and the impact of VBP cost controls on wholesale operations.Meanwhile,net operating cash flow reached RMB2,006mn in 2025(+20.9%YoY),improving significantly.
Pharmaceutical distribution leader with robust operations;BUY
In view of the performance of merchandise sales and product sales segments in 2025,we lower our revenue growth forecasts for certain subsidiaries and reduce our gross margin assumptions for the product sales segment.We now project 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP at RMB2.02/2.08/2.14bn(+1.3/+2.6/+2.9%YoY;2026/2027 forecasts cut by 4.5/6.4%vs our previous estimates),implying EPS of RMB2.68/2.75/2.83.Considering CNMC's leading market share in N&P drug distribution and its strong position in common generics distribution in Beijing,along with steady growth in parent company earnings and equity income,we believe that short-term fluctuations in subsidiary performance do not alter the company's long-term growth trajectory.We value the stock at 13x 2026E PE(vs its peers'average of 12x on Wind consensus),for our target price of RMB34.86(previous:RMB36.49,based on 13x 2026E PE).
Risks:earnings from N&P drugs weaker than we expect;growth in pharmaceutical distribution revenue in Beijing trailing our expectations.

　　公司2025年收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润524.68/19.97/19.71亿元，同比+3.7%/-0.2%/-1.3%，业绩基本符合我们预期（收入527亿元/归母净利润20.2亿元）；4Q25收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润130.87/5.04/5.00亿元，同比+4.1%/-2.8%/-1.3%。公司2025年北京分销业务保持稳健、麻精药业务收入保持快速增长，由于集采及市场竞争加剧等因素部分子公司业绩承压，2025年公司收入稳定增长、利润增速相对承压。我们认为公司基本业务稳固，长期增长逻辑稳健，维持买入评级。
　　母公司业绩稳健增长，投资收益平稳增长，国瑞药业拖累利润
　　25年业绩增速受国瑞药业等部分子公司拖累：1）国控北京：收入149.45亿元，同比+1.1%，净利润3.59亿元，同比+0.6%；2）北京华鸿：收入60.45亿元，同比-3.8%，净利润0.82亿元，同比+1.6%；3）北京康辰：收入36.03亿元，同比+1.2%，净利润1.02亿元，同比+3.3%；4）天星普信：收入52.70亿元，同比-3.6%，净利润0.76亿元，同比-17.8%；5）国瑞药业：收入4.15亿元，同比-11.7%，净利润-0.45亿元，同比-240%；6）国药前景：收入1.58亿元，同比-2.6%，净利润0.76亿元，同比+1.7%。2025年公司对联营企业投资收益5.47亿元，同比增长6.2%。按母公司报表来看，25年母公司净利润18.19亿元，同比+17.2%。若剔除投资收益影响，母公司净利润为12.72亿元（同比+22.6%）、公司归母净利润为14.50亿元（同比-2.4%），25年国瑞药业净亏损，拖累整体归母净利润表现。
　　2025年公司毛利率同比下降，经营性现金流明显改善
　　2025年销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为1.38%/0.89%/0.13%/-0.04%，同比-0.21/-0.03/-0.01/-0.09pct。公司持续控制费用，2025年各项费用率同比降低。2025年毛利率为6.59%，同比-0.51pct，毛利率同比下降我们认为或由于毛利率较高的工业业务收入占比降低，以及批发业务受集采控费影响。2025年公司经营性现金流净额达20.06亿元，同比增长20.9%，经营性现金流大幅改善。
　　经营稳健的医药流通龙头，维持“买入”评级
　　根据2025年商品销售、产品销售业务业绩情况，我们下调部分子公司业务收入增速，下调产品销售业务毛利率预期，预测公司26-28年归母净利润分别为20.2/20.8/21.4亿元（相比26-27年前值下调4.5%/6.4%），同比+1.3%/+2.6%/+2.9%，对应EPS2.68/2.75/2.83元。考虑到公司精麻分销市占率领先，北京普药配送业务稳固，母公司业绩及投资收益均稳定增长，短期子公司业绩波动不改长期增长逻辑，我们给予公司26年13xPE估值（可比公司26年Wind一致预期均值12x），对应目标价34.86元（前值36.49元，26年估值13x）。
　　风险提示：精麻产品业绩不及预期；北京地区医药配送收入增长不如预期。

Based on its 3Q25 earnings,we maintain our earnings forecasts,projecting 2025/2026/2027 attributable NP at RMB2.02/2.12/2.22bn,up 1/4.8/4.8%yoy,with EPS of RMB2.68/2.81/2.94.We value the stock at 13x 2026E PE,on par with its peers’average on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB36.49(previous:RMB37.49,on 14x 2025E PE).

　　公司9M25收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为393.81/14.92/14.70亿元，同比+3.56%/+0.74%/-1.27%；3Q25收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润137.47/5.44/5.39亿元，同比+3.58%/+13.10%/+10.84%。我们认为3Q25归母净利润受益于对联营企业投资收益同比快速增长，表现亮眼。我们认为公司基本面稳固、财务指标优秀，发展态势较好，维持买入评级。
　　9M25投资收益快速增长，母公司业绩平稳增长
　　3Q25/9M25公司对联营企业投资收益1.39/4.11亿元，同比+80.2%/+28.4%，3Q25投资收益增速较快主因上年同期基数较低。按9M25母公司报表来看，母公司收入182.46亿元，同比+11.4%，净利润12.60亿元，同比+8.2%。若剔除投资收益影响，9M25母公司净利润为8.49亿元，同比+0.6%。若剔除投资收益影响，9M25公司归母净利润为10.81亿元，同比-6.9%，因此我们认为9M25仍有部分子公司拖累整体归母净利润表现。
　　9M25公司销售、管理及研发费用率同比降低，毛利率同比下降
　　9M25销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为1.25%/0.77%/0.11%/-0.04%，同比-0.28/-0.04/-0.01/+0.15pct。公司持续控制费用，3Q25销售、管理及研发费用率均同比降低。9M25毛利率为6.35%，同比-0.67pct，我们认为或由于毛利率较高的工业业务收入占比降低，以及批发业务受集采控费影响。
　　经营稳健的医药流通龙头，维持“买入”评级
　　根据3Q25业绩，我们维持盈利预测，预测25-27年归母净利润20.2/21.2/22.2亿元，同比+1.0%/+4.8%/+4.8%，对应EPS2.68/2.81/2.94元。我们给予公司26年13xPE估值（可比公司26年Wind一致预期均值13x），对应目标价36.49元（前值37.49元，25年估值14x）。
　　风险提示：精麻产品业绩不及预期；北京地区医药配送收入增长不如预期。