4Q23 attributable NP of RMB263mn, up 35% yoy
Winall Hi-Tech Seed’s revenue was RMB4,103mn (+17.54% yoy), attributable NP was RMB274mn (+17.37% yoy), and recurring NP was RMB234mn (+32.72% yoy). For 4Q23, revenue was RMB2,549mn (+30.41% yoy, +437.79% qoq) and attributable NP was RMB263mn (+34.63% yoy, +1,014.51% qoq). We project 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP at RMB378/502/589mn and EPS at RMB0.40/0.53/0.62. As competition in the seed-end market is more decentralized than in the trait-end market, we value the stock at 25x 2024E PE, below its peers’ average of 34x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB10. BUY.
Seed sales volume grew, corn seed rose in both in volume and price
For 2023, revenue growth was mainly fueled by product sales growth. Seed sales volume exceeded 200mn kg, of which rice/corn/wheat seed sales volume rose 17/30/43% yoy. Notably, corn seed grew in both volume and price, driving revenue to increase by 14/45/35% yoy. Affected by increased seed processing costs and other factors, the rice/corn/seed GPMs fell 0.48/7.41/1.58pp yoy. However, driven by businesses other than seed, the company’s overall GPM was maintained at c 27%. For 4Q23, revenue and profit growth accelerated significantly. In view of the company’s continued high yoy increase in advance receipts in 3Q23, we expect its seed sales to remain high in 2023-2024.
Seed business expanding, benefits from GM crop commercialization
In September 2023, the Winall (Nancheng) seed processing center was formally put into operation. We expect the company’s seed production area to expand further. Notably, for corn seed, it has completed the acquisition of a controlling stake in Hebei New Era Seed, which has high market shares in corn seed markets in Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan, and we expect the company’s corn seed business to further expand. We see 2024 as the first year of GM corn commercialization and expect market-based prices of GM seeds to rally. Backed by Syngenta, Winall Hi-Tech Seed has considerable advantages, in our view. Up to now, Syngenta has obtained approval for 3/5 GM corn traits/variety. The company has a research-oriented strategy. Its GM insect-resistant corn project has been under development for several years, and we expect it to create synergies with Syngenta in the field of biological breeding.

　　事件：公司发布2023年年报，荃银高科实现营业收入41.03亿元，同比增长17.54%；归母净利润2.74亿元，同比增长17.37%。其中2023年Q4实现营业收入25.49亿元，同比增长30.41%。归母净利润2.63亿元，同比增长34.63%。拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1元。
　　1、种子收入规模增长快速，多品种布局显成效
　　公司2023年实现各类农作物种子销量2.02亿公斤，同比增长33%；种子收入达28.4亿元，同比增长22%。公司非种子业务（订单粮食、青贮饲料等）实现收入1.26亿元，同比增长9%。公司种子业务表现突出：
　　①水稻种子收入达17.58亿，同比增长14%，销量同比增加17%，毛利率42.80%。2019-2023年公司水稻品种国审品种达23、59、92、54、64个，2023年再次获批农业农村部杂交稻新品种创制重点实验室，稳步推进南方研究院晚稻品种试验工作，115份新杂交水稻组合通过考察进入下轮试验，不育系荃金8S、荃美S、振香A通过安徽省技术鉴定。
　　②玉米种子收入达4.89亿，同比增长45%，销量同比增长30%，毛利率25.29%。2019-2023年公司玉米品种国审品种达1、5、5、8、8个。公司建立了覆盖国内所有玉米生态类型区域及主产省的试验网络，是科技部“玉米等作物种质创新及分子育种全国重点实验室”核心参建单位，公司自主选育的玉米品种数量不断增加。公司在2023年完成了对河北新纪元种业有限公司的控股权收购工作，新纪元公司的玉米种子在京津唐具有较高的市场占有率，在西北、东北等地区也具有非常好的适应性和增产潜力。此外，为提高公司在爆裂玉米、鲜食玉米等特种玉米领域的市场占有率及影响力，公司成立辽宁分公司，建立荃银的特种玉米育种体系。毛利率方面，公司2023年玉米种子材料成本上涨明显（同比增加65.28%），导致玉米种子毛利率下滑7.41pct。
　　③小麦种子收入达4.37亿，同比增长35%，销量同比增加43%，毛利率13.79%。公司2022年收购新疆金丰源60%股权，2023年金丰源棉花、小麦等种子销量均实现了快速增长。
　　区域方面，公司从原先长江中下游（华东）为主向其他区域持续开拓，公司优势销售区域（华东、华中）销售收入占比持续保持领先，同时其他区域收入体量迅速增加，例如西北区域收入达5.7亿，同比增加59%；华北区域收入达1.86亿，同比增加50%。此外，公司加快海外市场布局2023年公司海外收入达2.86亿元，同比增长33%。
　　2、研发加码，转基因玉米品种获批！
　　公司对研发持续投入，2020-2023年，公司研发投入金额分别为5,617万元、8,328万元、1.14亿元、1.40亿元。在生物育种领域，荃银高科作为先正达种业板块的重要成员，积极开展生物育种技术方面研发与合作，储备相关资源。2024年3月，荃银高科与葫芦岛市农业新品种科技开发有限公司选育的荣玉8K等3个转基因玉米品种获得农业农村部初审通过公示。我们认为，转基因玉米品种的布局有望为公司玉米种业的发展增添助力。公司品种、区域拓展路径明确，注重研发，有望在实现目标的路上稳步前进！
　　我们原先预计2024-2025年公司实现归母净利润3.4/4.5亿元，考虑玉米等粮食价格处于相对较低位置或影响种子销售毛利率，公司在推广新品种方面短期销售和管理费用或增加，我们对公司24-25年公司利润进行调整。我们预计2024-2026年公司实现营业收入为48.00/58.75/67.60亿，实现归母净利润3.07/3.48/4.40亿元，同增12%/13%/27%。公司深耕种子行业，业务拓展迅速，转基因布局有望助力公司快速发展，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：价格波动；政策变动风险；转基因推广不及预期。