TSP Wind Power Group has posted 1Q26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)of RMB570/10mn(-28.6/-69.8%YoY).We believe the YoY decline in attributable NP was mainly due to delays in the progress of certain domestic projects,resulting in lower shipments,combined with increased FX losses caused by USD exchange rate fluctuations.The company maintains asolid order backlog,with contract liabilities and inventories remaining at high levels,supporting agradual return to normal delivery schedules.At the same time,the company is advancing offshore wind base deployment to ensure sufficient capacity for future domestic and overseas offshore wind orders.It is also steadily developing rocket fuel tank and renewable energy power forecasting businesses,which we expect to become new growth drivers.Maintain BUY.
Short-term pressure in 1Q26,recovery expected
In 1Q26,the company shipped 68kt of steel towers,down 27%YoY,which we attribute mainly to delays in certain domestic projects,while overseas projects maintained normal deliveries with YoY shipment growth.Affected by lower shipments and FX losses,the overall expense ratio for 1Q26 reached 13.1%,up 5.0pp YoY.The company's order backlog remains strong.As of end-1Q26,orders under execution and pending execution totaled RMB4.83bn,including RMB3.26/1.55/0.02bn for onshore wind/offshore wind/other businesses.Inventories and contract assets stood at RMB2.17bn and RMB0.42bn,respectively,both remaining at elevated levels.As delivery schedules gradually normalize,we expect performance to improve progressively.The TSP Blue Island base has completed technical upgrades and now possesses production capabilities for large-scale offshore wind towers and 2,500-ton monopiles,providing sufficient support for future domestic and overseas offshore wind order fulfillment.
Rocket fuel tank production line transformation progresses steadily
The company is continuing with process research and technical preparation related to rocket fuel tank businesses.Production line upgrades at the former Dongtai plant are progressing steadily,with designed capacity of 60 fuel tank sets.The company expects operations to commence by mid-2026.The parent company,GET Investment Holdings,emphasizes commercial aerospace development,having strategically invested in companies such as Galactic Energy,CAS Space,and Yunyao Aerospace Technology.TSP Wind Power is poised to benefit from this strategic layout.The company has already initiated technical cooperation with several launch vehicle manufacturers,and may achieve order breakthroughs in the future.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that the company's renewable energy power forecasting business remains in the product commercialization stage,we maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB304/408/524mn,implying EPS of RMB0.27/0.37/0.47.We value the stock at 56.5x 2026E PE,at par with its peers'average on Wind consensus,for our target price of RMB15.26(unchanged).
Risks:Weaker downstream wind power demand than we expect;intensified competition;rocket business expansion missing our expectations;weaker progress in renewable energy power forecasting business development than we expect.

　　公司公布2025年年报及2026年一季报，2025年公司实现营收51.94亿元，同比+7.36%，实现归母净利润2.15亿元，同比+17.93%；2026年一季度实现营收5.68亿元，同比-28.58%，归母净利润0.14亿元，同比-69.82%。我们认为公司作为国内老牌的塔筒厂商，凭借着技术优势及母公司协同优势，切入商业航天领域，打开第二成长曲线，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　支撑评级的要点
　　受到下游风电行业周期性影响，业绩短期承压。2025年全年公司实现营收51.94亿元，同比+7.36%，实现归母净利润2.15亿元，同比+17.93%。分产品来看，陆上风电装备类产品（含混凝土塔筒）实现收入45.65亿元，同比+13.37%，表现强劲；海上风电及海洋工程装备实现收入5.13亿元，同比-23.60%，主要是因为受到海风市场周期性调整的影响。2026年一季度实现营收5.68亿元，同比-28.58%，归母净利润0.14亿元，同比-69.82%，业绩继续承压，我们认为主要原因是风电项目延期及汇兑损益的影响。
　　在手订单充足，风电业务预期稳健。根据公司公告，截至2026年一季度末，公司在执行及待执行订单共计48.30亿元，分产品来看陆上风电类32.57亿元，海上风电及海洋工程装备类15.48亿元，其他类订单0.25亿元，充沛的在手订单对公司传统风电业务业绩提供支撑。
　　切入商业航天战略新兴赛道，积极布局第二成长曲线。公司通过子公司广东泰胜航天技术有限公司切入商业航天战略新兴行业赛道，持续开展火箭燃料贮箱业务相关的工艺研究和技术储备工作，并于2025年底完成生产基地项目的正式立项，启动对原东台工厂的产线改造建设工作，该产线设计产能为60套贮箱，目前相关产线建设与市场拓展等前期工作有序开展中，预计于2026年中投产。母公司广州凯得重视商业航天布局，自2021年起便前瞻布局商业航天赛道，投资中科宇航、星河动力、联适导航、立得空间等产业链上下游优质企业，公司已与国内整箭制造商签署了战略合作协议，后续有望凭借着母公司的提前布局，发挥协同优势打造第二成长曲线。
　　估值
　　综合考虑公司在手订单情况及国内外风电行业的情况，我们调整公司2026-2027年盈利预测，并且增加2028年盈利预测，预计分别实现营收58.97/66.18/72.59亿元，实现归母净利润3.14/3.81/4.83亿元，EPS为0.28/0.34/0.44元，当前股价对应PE为39.0/32.1/25.3倍。考虑到公司国内老牌的塔筒厂商的地位，凭借着技术优势及母公司协同优势，切入商业航天领域，打开第二成长曲线，维持买入评级。
　　评级面临的主要风险
　　风电装机不及预期；原材料价格波动的风险；竞争加剧的风险；国际贸易政策的风险；新业务拓展不及预期的风险。

　　公司公布一季度业绩：收入5.7亿元，同比-28.6%；归母净利润0.1亿元，同比-69.8%。公司一季度归母同比下滑，主要系国内部分项目进展延期，导致出货量下降，叠加受美元汇率波动导致汇兑损失增加。公司在手订单充分，合同负债与存货保持高位，有望逐步恢复正常交付，并积极开展海风基地布局，为后续承接国内外海风订单提供充足保障；有序开展火箭贮箱及新能源功率预测业务，有望打开第二成长曲线，维持“买入”评级。
　　1Q26短期经营承压，后续或逐步恢复
　　1Q26公司钢塔出货6.8万吨，同比-27%，主要系部分国内项目进展延期，而海外项目保持正常交付，出货同比提升。受整体出货下滑叠加汇兑损失影响，1Q26公司期间费用率为13.1%，同比+5.0pct。公司在手订单饱满，截至1Q26末，在执行及待执行订单为48.3亿元，其中陆风、海风、其他分别为32.6、15.5、0.2亿元，存货、合同资产分别为21.7、4.2亿元，整体均保持高位，随着后续恢复正常交付节奏，有望陆续兑现业绩。公司蓝岛基地已技改完成，具备大尺寸海塔、2500吨单桩的生产能力，为后续承接国内外海风订单提供充足保障。
　　火箭贮箱产线改造稳步推进，看好未来订单落地
　　公司持续开展火箭燃料贮箱业务相关的工艺研究和技术储备工作，原东台工厂产线改造稳步推进，设计产能为60套贮箱，公司预计2026年中投产。母公司广州凯德重视商业航天布局，已战略投资星河动力、中科宇航、云遥宇航等优质企业，公司有望受益于母公司战略布局，已与多家整箭制造商开展技术合作，后续有望实现订单突破。
　　与云遥宇航成立合资公司，拓展新能源功率预测业务
　　4月23日，公司与云遥宇航成立合资公司广州泰云新能源，布局新能源功率预测业务。云遥宇航于2019年创立，是国内领先的商业气象卫星运维、数据供应及应用服务商，其打造的“云遥气象星座”进展迅猛，已成功发射47颗卫星，其中31颗已获准进入中国气象局业务系统，成为首个进入国家级综合气象观测系统的民营星座，公司预计2026年底前将完成90颗卫星组网。我们看好依托云遥宇航在气象数据采集与应用领域的技术实力，结合公司在新能源及电力行业的市场渠道与产业经验，共同推动技术创新与产业协同，培育新的业务增长点。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司新能源功率预测业务尚处于产品落地阶段，我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测为3.04、4.08、5.24亿元，对应EPS为0.27、0.37、0.47元。参考可比公司26年Wind一致预期pe均值56.5，维持目标价为15.26元。
　　风险提示：下游风电需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、火箭业务拓展不及预期、新能源功率预测业务开拓不及预期。

TSP Wind Power Group has released its 2025 annual results:revenue reached RMB5.19bn(+7.4%YoY);the attributable net profit(NP)was RMB0.21bn(+17.9%YoY),missing our expectation of RMB858mn,mainly due to intensified competition in the wind power and offshore engineering equipment markets,in our view.The company is actively advancing technical upgrades to wind power production,providing sufficient capacity to undertake domestic and overseas offshore wind orders.Meanwhile,it is progressing with production line upgrades and market expansion for rocket propellant tanks,which we expect to become anew growth driver.Maintain BUY.
Wind power:expecting offshore wind demand recovery
In 2025,wind power products generated RMB5,078mn in revenue(+8.1%YoY),mainly driven by strong demand for onshore wind in China.The gross margin decreased by 1.6pp YoY to 11.3%,primarily due to intensified competition.Specifically,onshore/offshore wind power products contributed revenues of RMB4.56/0.51bn(+13.4/-23.6%YoY),with the gross margins at 11.8/6.7%(-1.9/-1.4pp YoY).The company strengthened its accounts receivable collection management,enabling operating cash flow to turn positive in 2025,while credit impairment losses declined significantly.Looking to 2026,benefiting from the improving offshore wind market both at home and abroad,the company holds ample orders in hand.Following the completion of the technical upgrade at TSP Blue Island,the company now has the capability to produce Vestas V236 offshore wind towers and 2,500-tonne monopiles,which we expect to support shipment growth.
Rockets:production line upgrade initiated
The company continued process research and technical preparation related to rocket fuel storage tank manufacturing.By end-2025,the project for the production base was officially approved.The company has started upgrading the production lines at the former Dongtai plant,with designed capacity of 60 sets of storage tanks,scheduled for commissioning in mid-2026.The parent company GET Investment Holdings emphasizes commercial aerospace development,having strategically invested in companies such as Galactic Energy and CAS Space.TSP Wind Power is poised to benefit from this strategic layout.The company has already initiated technical cooperation with several launch vehicle manufacturers,and may achieve order breakthroughs in the future.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given intensifying competition in the wind power and offshore engineering equipment markets,we lower our 2026 attributable NP forecast by 69.68%to RMB304mn and project 2027/2028 attributable NP at RMB408/524mn(three-year CAGR:34.68%),with EPS of RMB0.27/0.37/0.47.We value the stock at 56.51x 2026E PE,at par with its peers’average on Wind consensus,for our target price of RMB15.26(previous:RMB9.66 based on 14x 2024E PE).The valuation increase mainly reflects higher peer valuations and incremental growth potential from the rocket business.
Risks:weaker downstream wind power demand than we expect;intensified competition;rocket business expansion missing our expectations.

　　公司公布2025年报业绩：收入51.9亿元，同比+7.4%；归母净利润2.1亿元，同比+17.9%。公司年报业绩低于我们预期的8.58亿元，低于原因主要是风电及海工装备市场竞争加剧导致盈利承压。公司积极推进风电产能技改，为承接国内外海风订单提供充足保障；有序开展火箭贮箱产线改造与市场拓展，有望打造新增长极，维持“买入”评级。
　　风电：短期盈利承压，看好海风需求释放
　　2025年公司风电类产品实现营收50.78亿元，同比+8.1%，主要系国内陆风需求高景气，毛利率11.3%，同比-1.6pct，主要系行业竞争加剧；其中陆上风电类产品营收45.6亿元，同比+13.4%，毛利率11.8%，同比-1.9pct，海上风电类产品营收5.1亿元，同比-23.6%，毛利率6.7%，同比-1.4pct。公司加强应收账款回款管理，2025年实现经营活动现金流回正，计提信用减值损失大幅收窄。展望2026年，受益于国内外海风景气度向上，公司在手订单饱满，叠加蓝岛技改完成，具备维斯塔斯V236海塔、2500吨单桩的生产能力，有望实现出货释放。
　　火箭：启动产线改造，受益于母公司战略布局
　　公司持续开展火箭燃料贮箱业务相关的工艺研究和技术储备工作，2025年底完成生产基地正式立项，并启动对原东台工厂的产线改造，设计产能为60套贮箱，预计2026年中投产。母公司广州凯德重视商业航天布局，已战略投资星河动力、中科宇航等优质企业，公司有望受益于母公司战略布局，已与多家整箭制造商开展技术合作，后续有望实现订单突破。
　　电站：推进电站建设，贡献稳定现金流
　　2025年公司自持电站贡献营收0.24亿元，同比-17.2%，毛利率24.9%，同比-13.9pct，主要系新能源入市导致盈利承压。公司已完成收购舞阳100MW、永城100MW风电场，并在新疆、广西、黑龙江、陕西等地同步开展风电场开发前期工作，其中250MW已具备开工条件。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到风电及海工装备市场竞争加剧，我们下调公司26年归母净利润（下调69.68%）至3.04亿元，并预计27、28年归母净利润为4.08、5.24亿元（三年预测期CAGR为34.68%），对应EPS为0.27、0.37、0.47元。参考可比公司估值法，给予公司26年56.51倍PE，对应目标价为15.26元（前值9.66元，对应24年14倍PE，估值上升主要系可比公司估值提升，以及公司拓展火箭业务贡献增量）。
　　风险提示：下游风电需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、火箭业务拓展不及预期。