TSP Wind Power Group has reported 1H26 revenue of RMB1.56bn (-32.3% YoY) and an attributable NP of RMB20mn (-82.8% YoY). For 2Q26, revenue reached RMB990mn (-34.3% YoY, +74.1% QoQ), while the attributable NP arrived at RMB10mn (-90.8% YoY, -49.8% QoQ). The 2Q26 earnings contraction was primarily dragged down by delayed wind-power project deliveries, coupled with FX losses, elevated depreciation costs at the Landao base, and credit impairment. Looking ahead, sequential expansions in order backlog and inventories should underpin upcoming deliveries. Meanwhile, the Dongtai propellant tank manufacturing base for commercial aerospace has commenced operations and secured initial orders, alongside steady progress in renewable power forecasting, which should incubate incremental growth drivers. Maintain BUY.
Renewable forecasting business expands; rollout in focus
Through wholly-owned subsidiary TSP Investment Holding, the company holds a 40% equity stake in Guangzhou Taiyun New Energy. Leveraging Yunyao Aerospace's meteorological data technology alongside TSP's market channels in renewable energy and power sectors, it is developing renewable power forecasting, auxiliary power trading systems, virtual power plants (VPPs), and next-generation smart grid services. Given strong operational synergies between power forecasting, self-owned wind farm operations, and existing renewable client networks, this initiative should support TSP’s strategic expansion into digital energy services. We recommend monitoring upcoming product deployments and customer acquisition progress.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Reflecting slower delivery due to domestic and overseas project delays, we revise down 2026, 2027, and 2028 attributable NP forecasts to RMB225mn, RMB315mn, and RMB419mn (-26.01%, -22.67%, and -20.00% vs our previous forecasts, for a three-year CAGR of 24.99%), with EPS of RMB0.20, RMB0.28, and RMB0.38, respectively. Benchmarking against its comparable peers’ 2026E average of 47.3x PE on Wind consensus, we lower our target price to RMB9.47 (previously RMB15.26 based on 56.5x 2026E PE, with the target multiple contraction primarily driven by lower peer valuations). Maintain BUY.
Risks: weaker-than-expected wind power demand, intensifying industry competition, slower-than-expected commercial aerospace expansion, slower-than-expected renewable power forecasting business development.

　　公司公布上半年业绩：收入15.6亿元，同比-32.3%；归母净利润0.2亿元，同比-82.8%。其中二季度公司实现收入9.9亿元，同/环比-34.3%/+74.1%；归母净利润0.1亿元，同/环比-90.8%/-49.8%。2Q26业绩承压，主要系风电项目交付不及预期，叠加汇兑损失、蓝岛基地折旧压力及信用减值拖累。展望后续，公司在手订单和存货环比增加，有望支撑后续交付；商业航天东台贮箱基地已投产并实现订单落地，新能源功率预测业务持续推进，有望培育新增长点，维持“买入”评级。
　　风电交付下滑拖累业绩，订单储备持续增加
　　1H26公司钢塔交付18.6万吨，同比-34%，主要系国内外部分项目进展延期，导致交付下滑。盈利能力方面，1H26外销毛利率13%，同比-6pct，主要原因包括美元贬值导致确收下滑，以及蓝岛基地技改后产能未充分释放导致折旧压力攀升；1H26内销毛利率13.2%，同比+3.8pct，主要得益于自持风场贡献利润增量。公司在手订单环比提升，截至26H1末在执行及待执行订单50.9亿元，环比提升5.3%，其中陆风/海风及海工订单分别为33.6/17.2亿元，环比提升3.3%/11.4%；存货21.7亿元，环比+22.4%，合同资产4.6亿元，环比+4.9%。展望后续，我们看好下半年项目逐步恢复正常交付节奏，公司有望陆续兑现业绩。
　　火箭贮箱基地投产，看好订单释放
　　26年6月下旬，泰胜航天东台基地正式建成投产，设计贮箱年产能60套，首件火箭贮箱鉴定件同步下线；基地已具备航天大型结构件加工、检测等全流程能力，可有效保障产品的规模化生产。截至26年8月，该业务已有近600万元在手订单正在执行，依托母公司战略布局，有望陆续实现订单落地。公司拟在广州建设泰胜航天广州基地，目前已完成前期论证及选址，后续根据市场情况及审批进展，有序推进项目落地。
　　拓展新能源功率预测业务，关注产品落地
　　公司通过全资子公司泰胜投控持有广州泰云新能源40%股权，依托云遥宇航在气象数据领域的技术实力和公司在新能源及电力行业的市场渠道，布局新能源功率预测、电力交易辅助系统、虚拟电厂及新型智能电网等服务。考虑到功率预测业务与公司风电场运营及新能源客户资源具备协同潜力，有望推动公司向能源数字化服务延伸，关注后续产品落地与客户拓展。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　由于国内外项目进展延误导致交付规模下滑，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润至2.25/3.15/4.19亿元（较前值分别调整-26.01%/-22.67%/-20.00%，三年复合增速为24.99%），对应EPS为0.20/0.28/0.38元。参考可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值47.3倍，下调目标价为9.47元（前值15.26元，对应2026年56.5xPE，公司目标估值倍数下滑主要原因为可比公司估值下降）。
　　风险提示：风电需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、商业航天业务拓展不及预期、新能源功率预测业务开拓不及预期。

TSP Wind Power Group has posted 1Q26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)of RMB570/10mn(-28.6/-69.8%YoY).We believe the YoY decline in attributable NP was mainly due to delays in the progress of certain domestic projects,resulting in lower shipments,combined with increased FX losses caused by USD exchange rate fluctuations.The company maintains asolid order backlog,with contract liabilities and inventories remaining at high levels,supporting agradual return to normal delivery schedules.At the same time,the company is advancing offshore wind base deployment to ensure sufficient capacity for future domestic and overseas offshore wind orders.It is also steadily developing rocket fuel tank and renewable energy power forecasting businesses,which we expect to become new growth drivers.Maintain BUY.
Short-term pressure in 1Q26,recovery expected
In 1Q26,the company shipped 68kt of steel towers,down 27%YoY,which we attribute mainly to delays in certain domestic projects,while overseas projects maintained normal deliveries with YoY shipment growth.Affected by lower shipments and FX losses,the overall expense ratio for 1Q26 reached 13.1%,up 5.0pp YoY.The company's order backlog remains strong.As of end-1Q26,orders under execution and pending execution totaled RMB4.83bn,including RMB3.26/1.55/0.02bn for onshore wind/offshore wind/other businesses.Inventories and contract assets stood at RMB2.17bn and RMB0.42bn,respectively,both remaining at elevated levels.As delivery schedules gradually normalize,we expect performance to improve progressively.The TSP Blue Island base has completed technical upgrades and now possesses production capabilities for large-scale offshore wind towers and 2,500-ton monopiles,providing sufficient support for future domestic and overseas offshore wind order fulfillment.
Rocket fuel tank production line transformation progresses steadily
The company is continuing with process research and technical preparation related to rocket fuel tank businesses.Production line upgrades at the former Dongtai plant are progressing steadily,with designed capacity of 60 fuel tank sets.The company expects operations to commence by mid-2026.The parent company,GET Investment Holdings,emphasizes commercial aerospace development,having strategically invested in companies such as Galactic Energy,CAS Space,and Yunyao Aerospace Technology.TSP Wind Power is poised to benefit from this strategic layout.The company has already initiated technical cooperation with several launch vehicle manufacturers,and may achieve order breakthroughs in the future.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that the company's renewable energy power forecasting business remains in the product commercialization stage,we maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB304/408/524mn,implying EPS of RMB0.27/0.37/0.47.We value the stock at 56.5x 2026E PE,at par with its peers'average on Wind consensus,for our target price of RMB15.26(unchanged).
Risks:Weaker downstream wind power demand than we expect;intensified competition;rocket business expansion missing our expectations;weaker progress in renewable energy power forecasting business development than we expect.

　　公司公布2025年年报及2026年一季报，2025年公司实现营收51.94亿元，同比+7.36%，实现归母净利润2.15亿元，同比+17.93%；2026年一季度实现营收5.68亿元，同比-28.58%，归母净利润0.14亿元，同比-69.82%。我们认为公司作为国内老牌的塔筒厂商，凭借着技术优势及母公司协同优势，切入商业航天领域，打开第二成长曲线，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　支撑评级的要点
　　受到下游风电行业周期性影响，业绩短期承压。2025年全年公司实现营收51.94亿元，同比+7.36%，实现归母净利润2.15亿元，同比+17.93%。分产品来看，陆上风电装备类产品（含混凝土塔筒）实现收入45.65亿元，同比+13.37%，表现强劲；海上风电及海洋工程装备实现收入5.13亿元，同比-23.60%，主要是因为受到海风市场周期性调整的影响。2026年一季度实现营收5.68亿元，同比-28.58%，归母净利润0.14亿元，同比-69.82%，业绩继续承压，我们认为主要原因是风电项目延期及汇兑损益的影响。
　　在手订单充足，风电业务预期稳健。根据公司公告，截至2026年一季度末，公司在执行及待执行订单共计48.30亿元，分产品来看陆上风电类32.57亿元，海上风电及海洋工程装备类15.48亿元，其他类订单0.25亿元，充沛的在手订单对公司传统风电业务业绩提供支撑。
　　切入商业航天战略新兴赛道，积极布局第二成长曲线。公司通过子公司广东泰胜航天技术有限公司切入商业航天战略新兴行业赛道，持续开展火箭燃料贮箱业务相关的工艺研究和技术储备工作，并于2025年底完成生产基地项目的正式立项，启动对原东台工厂的产线改造建设工作，该产线设计产能为60套贮箱，目前相关产线建设与市场拓展等前期工作有序开展中，预计于2026年中投产。母公司广州凯得重视商业航天布局，自2021年起便前瞻布局商业航天赛道，投资中科宇航、星河动力、联适导航、立得空间等产业链上下游优质企业，公司已与国内整箭制造商签署了战略合作协议，后续有望凭借着母公司的提前布局，发挥协同优势打造第二成长曲线。
　　估值
　　综合考虑公司在手订单情况及国内外风电行业的情况，我们调整公司2026-2027年盈利预测，并且增加2028年盈利预测，预计分别实现营收58.97/66.18/72.59亿元，实现归母净利润3.14/3.81/4.83亿元，EPS为0.28/0.34/0.44元，当前股价对应PE为39.0/32.1/25.3倍。考虑到公司国内老牌的塔筒厂商的地位，凭借着技术优势及母公司协同优势，切入商业航天领域，打开第二成长曲线，维持买入评级。
　　评级面临的主要风险
　　风电装机不及预期；原材料价格波动的风险；竞争加剧的风险；国际贸易政策的风险；新业务拓展不及预期的风险。

　　公司公布一季度业绩：收入5.7亿元，同比-28.6%；归母净利润0.1亿元，同比-69.8%。公司一季度归母同比下滑，主要系国内部分项目进展延期，导致出货量下降，叠加受美元汇率波动导致汇兑损失增加。公司在手订单充分，合同负债与存货保持高位，有望逐步恢复正常交付，并积极开展海风基地布局，为后续承接国内外海风订单提供充足保障；有序开展火箭贮箱及新能源功率预测业务，有望打开第二成长曲线，维持“买入”评级。
　　1Q26短期经营承压，后续或逐步恢复
　　1Q26公司钢塔出货6.8万吨，同比-27%，主要系部分国内项目进展延期，而海外项目保持正常交付，出货同比提升。受整体出货下滑叠加汇兑损失影响，1Q26公司期间费用率为13.1%，同比+5.0pct。公司在手订单饱满，截至1Q26末，在执行及待执行订单为48.3亿元，其中陆风、海风、其他分别为32.6、15.5、0.2亿元，存货、合同资产分别为21.7、4.2亿元，整体均保持高位，随着后续恢复正常交付节奏，有望陆续兑现业绩。公司蓝岛基地已技改完成，具备大尺寸海塔、2500吨单桩的生产能力，为后续承接国内外海风订单提供充足保障。
　　火箭贮箱产线改造稳步推进，看好未来订单落地
　　公司持续开展火箭燃料贮箱业务相关的工艺研究和技术储备工作，原东台工厂产线改造稳步推进，设计产能为60套贮箱，公司预计2026年中投产。母公司广州凯德重视商业航天布局，已战略投资星河动力、中科宇航、云遥宇航等优质企业，公司有望受益于母公司战略布局，已与多家整箭制造商开展技术合作，后续有望实现订单突破。
　　与云遥宇航成立合资公司，拓展新能源功率预测业务
　　4月23日，公司与云遥宇航成立合资公司广州泰云新能源，布局新能源功率预测业务。云遥宇航于2019年创立，是国内领先的商业气象卫星运维、数据供应及应用服务商，其打造的“云遥气象星座”进展迅猛，已成功发射47颗卫星，其中31颗已获准进入中国气象局业务系统，成为首个进入国家级综合气象观测系统的民营星座，公司预计2026年底前将完成90颗卫星组网。我们看好依托云遥宇航在气象数据采集与应用领域的技术实力，结合公司在新能源及电力行业的市场渠道与产业经验，共同推动技术创新与产业协同，培育新的业务增长点。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到公司新能源功率预测业务尚处于产品落地阶段，我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测为3.04、4.08、5.24亿元，对应EPS为0.27、0.37、0.47元。参考可比公司26年Wind一致预期pe均值56.5，维持目标价为15.26元。
　　风险提示：下游风电需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、火箭业务拓展不及预期、新能源功率预测业务开拓不及预期。