Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials has reported 1H26 results: revenue of RMB1,611mn, up by 10.7% YoY but down by 4.3% QoQ; an attributable net profit of RMB156mn, down by 9.9% YoY but up by 2.4% QoQ. For 2Q26, revenue was RMB877mn, up by 26.7% YoY and 19.5% QoQ; the attributable net profit was RMB75mn, down by 17.6% YoY and 7.0% QoQ. For 2Q, profit missed our forecast of RMB110mn, mainly due to a QoQ decline in fiberglass yarn gross margin on weak downstream demand, market competition, and product mix, as well as higher FX losses. Changhai continues to expand in high-end fiberglass markets such as ultra-high-modulus products for wind power, while its chemical segment profitability is improving. We remain positive on its integrated fiberglass supply chain plus chemicals growth model. Maintain BUY.
Product-mix optimization to enhance M/LT profitability
1) Despite demand pressure from construction and automotive end-markets this year, we think that slower new capacity additions in direct roving should ease inventory build-up pressure and support product prices. Over the medium to long term, the scale of under-construction and planned direct roving capacity has declined significantly, and production line start-ups have been delayed. We expect industry S/D dynamics and fundamentals to continue recovering. 2) Changhai has an integrated supply chain spanning fiberglass yarn, fiberglass products, composites, and chemical support. Its products hold strong positions in niche markets. As direct roving prices stabilize and mid-range to high-end products such as wind power applications scale up, we see meaningful room for margin improvement.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given near-term direct roving price pressure and the early-stage ramp-up of wind power products, we cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB338/422/532mn (previous: RMB462/609/689mn). Its peers’ average valuation is 19.7x 2027E PE on Wind consensus. Considering that direct roving fundamentals may stabilize, and Changhai has room for medium-term margin improvement, we assign 19.7x 2027E PE, in line with its peers’ average on Wind consensus (previous: 18x 2026E PE), deriving our target price of RMB20.27 (previous: RMB20.34). Maintain BUY.
Risks: weaker fiberglass demand than we expect, intensifying industry competition, and significant increases in raw-material and fuel costs.

　　公司公布上半年业绩：26H1实现收入16.11亿元，同比+10.7%、环比-4.3%；归母净利润1.56亿元，同比-9.9%、环比+2.4%。其中26Q2实现收入8.77亿元，同比/环比+26.7%/+19.5%；归母净利润0.75亿元，同比/环比-17.6%/-7.0%。公司Q2盈利低于我们预期（1.1亿元），主要因玻纤纱毛利率受下游需求偏弱、市场竞争和产品结构等因素环比回落，以及阶段性汇兑损失增加。公司玻纤持续开拓风电用超高模产品等高端市场，化工板块盈利改善，我们看好公司“玻纤产业链一体化布局+化工”双轮驱动的增长格局，维持“买入”评级。
　　量增推动收入加速增长，Q2毛利率有所回落
　　1）26H1公司玻璃纤维及制品/化工制品收入分别为12.77/3.14亿元，同比+14.3%/-1.0%；毛利率分别为24.7%/23.1%，同比-1.0/+1.6pct，玻纤产品毛利率承压，主要受粗纱下游建筑、汽车需求偏弱，新增供给释放加剧市场竞争，以及公司产品结构变化的影响；化工产品毛利率同比提升，转嫁了上游成本压力。2）分季度看，26Q2公司收入同比+26.7%，增速较Q1提升30.5pct，环比+19.5%，但Q2综合毛利率为23.2%，同比/环比-3.6/-2.6pct，Q2收入提速预计得益于风电产品开拓放量，但规模化初期毛利率水平偏低，对整体有一定拖累。
　　汇兑损失拖累利润，经营现金流改善
　　1）26H1公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为2.3%/4.8%/4.5%/1.6%，同比+0.1/+0.3/-0.7/+1.8pct，期间费用率同比提升1.5pct，主要是财务费用由去年同期的-0.02亿元增至0.26亿元所致，其中汇兑损失0.22亿元，同比增加0.33亿元。2）26H1经营活动现金流净额为4.87亿元，同比增加4.22亿元，购建固定资产等支付现金0.75亿元，同比下降72.0%，反映产能建设较为审慎。3）中报存货周转天数约49.7天，环比一季报减少6.2天，反映随着销量增长，库存回落至中位水平；二季度末资产负债率较年初提升2.76pct至37.86%，整体负债水平保持稳健。
　　粗纱景气有望企稳修复，公司产品结构优化有望提升中长期盈利能力
　　1）尽管今年下游建筑、汽车等领域需求承压，但随着粗纱新增产能进一步放缓，行业库存上行压力有望趋缓，有望支撑产品价格。中长期来看，粗纱在建和拟建产能规模显著下降，点火节奏也明显延迟，行业供需平衡和景气水平有望继续修复。2）公司具备“玻纤纱—玻纤制品—复合材料—化工配套”的一体化产业链，制品在细分市场优势突出，随着粗纱价格企稳，风电等中高端产品进一步拓展形成规模，公司利润率具备明显改善空间。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑短期粗纱价格承压，公司风电产品仍处放量初期，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润预测至3.38/4.22/5.32亿元（前值为4.62/6.09/6.89亿元），可比公司Wind一致预期均值对应27年19.7xPE，考虑粗纱景气有望企稳修复，公司中期利润率具有改善空间，给予公司27年19.7xPE（与可比公司均值一致，前值为26年18xPE），给予目标价20.27元（前值20.34元），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：玻纤需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原燃料成本显著上升。

Changhai's 1Q26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring NP was RMB734/81/81mn(-3.8/-1.4/-7.4%YoY).Changhai continues to expand its fiberglass products towards high-end offerings such as ultra-high modulus products designed for wind turbines,and the chemical segment's profitability has improved.We remain positive on the company's two drivers of growth–fiberglass and chemicals.Maintain BUY.
1Q26:GPM rallied QoQ and YoY
1)Changhai's 1Q26 revenue stayed largely flat,reflecting that the production and sales of fiberglass and related processed products remained basically stable on ahigh base in 1Q25.2)For 1Q26,GPM rose by 3.19pp YoY and 3.37pp QoQ to 25.78%,mainly benefiting from price hikes for thermoplastic and thermosetting assembled roving fiberglass products since end-2025,as well as the pass-through of rising costs via price hikes for chemical products.3)In April MTD,the company raised prices for mainstream fiberglass roving products,which we expect to mitigate energy and precious metals price hikes.This,alongside rallying exports,ramping-up sales,and production of ultra-high modulus products designed for wind turbines,will shore up GPM in the medium term,in our view.
Increased forex losses weighed on profit,capex slowed
For 1Q26,Changhai's overall expense ratio was 13.67%(+3.20pp YoY).Specifically,the sales/administrative/R&D expense ratio was 2.50/5.22/4.54%(+0.55/+0.87/-0.36pp YoY),and the financial expense ratio rose by 2.12pp YoY to 1.40%on increased forex losses.An increased overall expense ratio eroded profitability,with the 1Q26 NPM rising by only 0.28pp YoY to 11.03%.2)The 1Q26 net operating cash flow was-RMB67mn(vs-RMB54mn in 1Q25),with an additional outflow of RMB13mn YoY mainly owing to increased raw material purchases and bank deposit payments.3)In 1Q26,cash paid for acquiring fixed assets,intangible assets,and other long-term assets was RMB31mn(-64.0%YoY),indicating slowed capex.4)At end-1Q26,the company's asset-liability ratio was 35.72%(+0.64pp from end-2025),with the overall debt level remaining stable.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecast at RMB460/610/690mn.We maintain our valuation multiple at 18x 2026E PE,implying a31%discount to its peers'average of 26x on Wind consensus to factor in its weak presence in E-glass yarn/fabric markets.Our target price is unchanged at RMB20.34.Maintain BUY.
Risks:Glass fiber demand falling short of our expectations,sharper drops in fiberglass prices than we expect,and significant energy cost hikes.

　　公司公布一季度业绩：26Q1实现营收/归母净利/扣非归母净利7.34/0.81/0.81亿元，同比-3.8%/-1.4%/-7.4%。公司玻纤持续开拓风电用超高模产品等高端市场，化工板块盈利改善，我们看好公司“玻纤+化工”双轮驱动的增长格局，维持“买入”评级。
　　Q1毛利率同环比均有改善
　　1）26Q1公司收入基本持平，反映玻纤及制品产销在去年高基数上基本保持稳定。2）26Q1公司销售毛利率25.78%，同比+3.19pct，环比+3.37pct，预计主要得益于25年底以来热塑、热固合股类等玻纤产品提价落地，以及化工类产品提价成功转嫁成本上涨压力。3）4月以来玻纤主流粗纱产品复价落地，有望充分消化成本端能源、贵金属等价格的上涨压力，叠加公司外销回暖，风电用超高模产品产销进一步爬坡，中期毛利率有望继续回升。
　　汇兑损失增加侵蚀利润，资本开支节奏放缓
　　1）26Q1公司期间费用率13.67%，同比+3.20pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为2.50%、5.22%、4.54%、1.40%，同比+0.55、+0.87、-0.36、+2.12pct，财务费用率显著上升主要因汇兑损失增加。期间费用率提升侵蚀盈利，26Q1公司净利率同比仅+0.28pct至11.03%。2）26Q1经营性净现金流-0.67亿元，去年同期为-0.54亿元，同比多流出0.13亿元，主要是购买原材料以及银行存款支付的增加所致。3）26Q1公司购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付现金0.31亿元，同比-64.0%，资本开支节奏有所放缓。4）26Q1末公司资产负债率35.72%，较25年末+0.64pct，整体负债水平保持稳健。
　　粗纱景气有望稳步改善，公司产品结构优化有望提升中长期盈利能力
　　1）随着粗纱新增产能投放节奏的进一步推迟，行业供需平衡有望继续修复，卓创统计的3月末行业样本库存降至85.85万吨，消化了此前淡季累库幅度，反映行业库存压力得到一定的缓解。我们认为新产能冲击趋缓+成本上升压力有助于粗纱价格竞争缓和，中期粗纱及制品整体景气有望延续稳步改善的趋势。2）公司加强风电、新能源汽车等高端应用市场开拓，深化与国内外优质客户的战略合作，强化产品结构差异化优势，有望提升中长期盈利能力。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持盈利预测，预测公司26-28年归母净利润预测为4.6/6.1/6.9亿元，可比公司Wind一致预期均值对应26年26xPE，考虑公司在电子纱/布等领域相对较弱，继续给予公司26年18xPE（较可比公司均值折价31%），维持目标价20.34元，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：玻纤需求不及预期，玻纤价格超预期下行，能源成本显著上升。

　　事件：2026年4月23日，长海股份发布2026一季报，1Q2026公司营收7.34亿元同降3.80%；归母净利润0.81亿元同降1.37%，扣非后归母净利润0.81亿元同降7.38%。
　　汇兑损失提高财务费用，1Q2026业绩同比略有下滑：在价格方面，根据卓创数据显示，1Q2026无碱玻纤粗纱均价同比下降2%。需求方面，国内1Q2026月均产量为71万吨，同增11.81%。一季度粗纱价格在弱需求下价格有所承压，加之公司财务费用因汇兑损失同比增加1581万元，因而公司归母净利润同比略有下滑1.37%。
　　产品结构影响毛利率，规模摊薄净利率：1Q2026公司毛利率25.78%同增3.19pct；净利率11.03%同增0.28pct，主要系高毛利风电纱逐步放量，加之化工业务盈利向好。公司期间费用率同增3.18pct，销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率/财务费用率，分别同比+0.55/+0.87/-0.36/+2.12pct。
　　成本支撑粗纱价格，AI需求拉动局部需求：中东冲突背景下，能源价格显著提升，玻纤所用天然气价格上涨明显，加之油价上涨带来运输费用的提升，以及贵金属在日常生产中的消耗成本也在增加，因而行业在整体成本提升下，也开始向下游传导，进一步推升玻纤的价格。同时，粗纱中的部分产品如电子毡也受到AI旺盛需求的影响，出现量价提升，提升企业相关产品的盈利水平。
　　投资建议：我们预计2026-2028年公司分别实现归母净利润3.81/4.38/4.90亿元，同增17%/15%/12%，最新收盘价对应PE为21x/19x/17x，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：宏观经济下行风险、新领域拓展不及预期、能源价格上涨风险。