投资要点
　　事件：公司24Q1-3营收8.2亿元，同比-6.8%，归母净利润1.6亿元，同比-8.9%，毛利率46.2%，同比-1.6pct，归母净利率19.4%，同比-0.4pct；其中24Q3营收2.9亿元，同环比-15.5％/-1.2％，归母净利润0.6亿元，同环比-21.2%/+4.5％，毛利率44.7%，同环比-2.3/-2.4pct，归母净利率20.3%，同环比-1.5/+1.1pct。下游需求持续疲弱，业绩不及市场预期。
　　国内经济弱复苏，需求疲弱业绩承压。24年7-9月我国制造业PMI指数分别为49.4%/49.1%/49.8%，均处在荣枯线以下，整体下游需求偏弱。公司下游主要面向一般工商业、园区、市政等客户，受宏观环境影响较大，导致业绩略承压。公司持续加强销售渠道布局和产品迭代研发，EMS系列产品线逐步成熟完善，充电桩、储能等硬件产品形成竞争力，展望25-26年，随着经济复苏+电改市场化的推进完善，公司业务有望以能源系统解决方案的形式提高市场渗透率，营收有望实现稳健增长。
　　积极出海应对内需影响，加强渠道建设打好发展基础。公司在全球超120个国家成功拓展客户群，并且在东南亚与欧洲市场进展显著，同时公司不断加强海外渠道建设，借鉴国内经销商模式，建立海外经销网络，有助于公司针对客户和市场推出了涵盖软件+硬件全系列产品及解决方案，展望全年，公司海外订单有望实现高速增长，考虑到海外项目执行周期普遍较长，我们预计公司海外收入25年将有所体现。
　　费用持续压降，现金流显著改善。公司24Q1-3期间费用2.3亿元，同-9.3%，费用率28.8%，同-0.8pct，其中Q3期间费用0.8亿元，同环比-15.7%/-13%，费用率26.9%，同环比-0.1/-3.6pct；24Q1-3经营性净现金流1.7亿元，同+33.2%，其中Q3经营性现金流1亿元，同环比+59.9%/+515.8%，现金流显著改善。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到下游需求短期内可能无法显著改善，我们下调公司24-26年归母净利润为2.0/2.3/2.8亿元（原值为2.3/2.9/3.5亿元），同比+2%/15%/18%，现价对应估值分别为21x、18x、15x，考虑到用电侧微电网解决方案长期空间仍旧广阔，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期，海外拓展不及预期，竞争加剧等。

Shanghai Acrel logged revenue/attributable net profit (NP) of RMB816/158mn (-6.81/-8.86% yoy) for 9M24. We attribute its yoy revenue decline to delays in the initiation of downstream customers' projects. However, we anticipate that as the construction of new power systems accelerates, the company's downstream demand should improve, driving full-year revenue back to a positive growth trajectory. Additionally, the company's overseas expansion and EMS 3.0 business layout are now essentially complete, with the revenue contribution from these areas likely to become more evident in 2025. Maintain BUY.
Business outlook 1: EMS 3.0 earnings growth likely to accelerate
In 2023, the company initiated the layout for EMS 3.0 products. In August 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Action Plan to Accelerate the Construction of Novel Power Systems (2024-2027)”, which outlined the development of smart micro-grid projects integrating wind, PV, and energy storage in grid terminals and off-grid areas. These projects highlight the importance of integrated management capabilities for PV-storage-charging. We believe that with rising downstream demand, the company's EMS 3.0 business could experience accelerated earnings growth in 2025.
Business outlook 2: overseas presence expanding
The company has expanded into Southeast Asia, Europe, and other international markets by participating in power industry exhibitions in Malaysia, Germany, and other regions during 9M24, boosting brand awareness overseas. We believe the company has strong advantages, including established international sales channels, compliance with international certifications, and superior cost-effectiveness compared to overseas competitors. Consequently, we expect the company's 2024 overseas revenue growth rate to surpass that of 1H24 (1H24: +72.46% yoy), with further acceleration likely in 2025.
Investment suggestion: target price of RMB37, maintain BUY
Considering that the commencement of downstream customer projects lags behind our expectations, we lower our revenue forecasts and estimate Acrel’s revenue for 2024/2025/2026 at RMB1,178/1,473/1,860mn (previous: RMB1,297/1,587/1,973mn). We maintain our expectation for GPM uplift and expense ratio reduction, and project its EPS at RMB1.10/1.48/1.92 (previous: RMB1.20/1.53/2.02). We value the stock at 25x 2025E PE, a premium over its peers’ average of 19.2x on Wind consensus, to factor in the company’s software product advantages, for our target price of RMB37.00 (previous: RMB30.00). Maintain BUY.
Risks: delayed construction of new power systems; slower progress in platform product deployment than we expect.

　　公司24年前三季度实现营收8.16亿元，同比减少6.81%，归母净利润1.58亿元，同比减少8.86%，其中24Q3营收2.85亿元，同比减少15.48%，归母净利5,787万元，同比减少21.18%。公司营收同比下滑，预计主要因下游客户项目开工进度延后所致。我们认为，伴随新型电力系统建设提速，公司下游需求有望改善，全年营收有望重回正增长。同时，公司海外业务、EMS3.0业务布局基本完善，预计25年在收入端逐步体现。维持“买入”。
　　毛利率同比下滑1.55pct，全年有望修复
　　前三季度整体毛利率为46.24%，同比-1.55pct，销售/管理/研发费用率为12.39%/5.72%/10.76%，同比-0.29pct/+0.06pct/-0.48pct。去年同期毛利率水平较高，主要受产品销售结构影响。考虑到全年业务结构基本稳定，且EMS2.0、3.0等高毛利业务占比有望提升，我们预计全年毛利率有望修复。
　　业务展望1：光储充管理需求旺盛，EMS3.0有望提速
　　公司23年开始布局EMS3.0产品，EMS3.0在2.0的基础上加入光储充平台，实现源网荷储充一体化柔性控制，并完成多个项目试点，目前产品技术已基本成熟。24年8月，国家发改委印发《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024—2027年）》，明确提出“在电网末端和大电网未覆盖地区，建设一批风光储互补的智能微电网项目”，此类项目高度强调光储充一体化管理能力，我们认为，伴随下游需求释放，公司EMS3.0业务25年有望提速。
　　业务展望2：海外布局逐步完善，静待业绩释放
　　公司目前已完成东南亚、欧洲等海外业务开拓，前三季度通过参与马来西亚、德国等地的电力工业国际展会，快速扩大品牌的海外知名度。我们认为，公司目前已具备海外销售渠道打通、产品通过国际认证、产品性价比优于海外产品等三重优势，预计24年海外营收增速有望优于24H1水平（24H1yoy+72.46%），25年有望进一步提速，建议重视公司海外业务的成长潜力。
　　投资建议：目标价37.00元，维持“买入”评级
　　考虑下游客户项目开工滞后于预期，下调收入预测，预计24-26年收入为11.78亿元、14.73亿元、18.60亿元（前值12.97亿元、15.87亿元、19.73亿元），维持毛利率提升、费用率下降预期，预计24-26年EPS分别为1.10、1.48、1.92元（前值2024-2026年1.20、1.53、2.02元）。参考可比公司25年19.2xPE（Wind一致预期），考虑公司软件产品优势，给予公司25年25xPE，对应目标价37.00元（前值30.00元），维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：新型电力系统建设不及预期；平台产品推进不及预期。

Optimistic about domestic downstream demand recovery in 2H24
Shanghai Acrel’ (Acrel) revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NP for 1H24 were RMB531/101/89.22mn (-1.36/+0.14/+1.52% yoy). The domestic customer demand diverged significantly in 1H24, with increased revenue contributions from fields of public utilities, new energy, and industrial park. We are optimistic about domestic demand recovery in 2H24. In view of the slow business progress in 1H24, we trim our earnings forecast, estimating 2024/2025/2026 EPS at RMB1.20/1.53/2.02. We value the stock at 25x 2024E PE, a premium over its peers’ average of 19.6x on Wind consensus, to factor in its software product advantages, for our target price of RMB30.00 (previous: RMB31.00). Maintain BUY.
Robust growth in overseas business continued
By region, domestic/overseas revenue for 1H24 were RMB506/24.68mn (-3.38/+72.46% yoy). The rapid growth in overseas business was primarily driven by the company’s expansion in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South America, with Southeast Asia and Europe making particularly significant contributions, together accounting for over 50% of overseas revenue. The slight decline in domestic revenue was mainly due to divergent demand across industries, with public utilities, new energy, and industrial parks showing robust demand.
Strengthening cost control, positive on profitability enhancement
Acrel’s overall GPM in 1H24 was 47.07% (-1.22pp yoy), with GPMs of power monitoring and comprehensive substation monitoring/energy efficiency management/fire and electric safety/power sensors dipping 1.18/1.08/1.10/1.84pp yoy. Acrel continued to strengthen cost control, with sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios in 1H24 at 12.83/5.82/11.25% (-0.09/-0.28/-0.95pp yoy), reflecting enhancement in cost control capability. Backed by the ongoing progression of software-based product upgrades and higher administrative efficiency, we expect the company’s profitability to continue improving.
Accelerating construction of novel power systems
In July 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Action Plan to Accelerate the Construction of Novel Power Systems (2024-2027). The smart microgrid is likely fully benefiting from the accelerated construction of novel power systems. As a dedicated player in microgrid management systems, Acrel has achieved platform-based integration of microgrid management system modules (EMS 2.0) and has added a PV-storage-charging integrated platform based on EMS 2.0 to create EMS 3.0. As of 1H24, the company’s EMS 3.0 trial project has been in operation. We believe that the accelerated construction of novel power systems should drive rapid growth in Acrel’s related businesses.
Risks: delayed construction of new power systems; slower progress in platform product deployment.

　　事件：公司发布2024年半年报，2024年上半年实现营业收入5.31亿元，同比减少1.36%，实现归母净利润1.01亿元，同比增长0.14%，扣非归母净利润0.89亿元，同比增长1.52%，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1元（含税）。其中2024Q2公司实现营业收入2.89亿元，同比减少6.18%；实现归母净利润0.55亿元，同比减少5.6%，环比增长22.36%。
　　各项业务基本保持稳定，盈利能力略微承压。24H1公司电力监控及变电站综合监控产品及系统营收同比减少2.42%至2.26亿元，毛利率同比下降1.18pct至47.31%；能效管理产品及系统营收同比增长3.75%至1.75亿元，毛利率同比下降1.08pct至47.66%；消防及用电安全产品及系统营收同比减少19.30%至0.41亿元，毛利率同比下降1.10pct至47.29%；企业微电网-其他营收同比增长1.87%至0.26亿元，毛利率同比下降1.78pct至45.10%；电量传感器营收同比增长7.06%至0.59亿元，毛利率同比下降1.84pct至45.28%。24H1公司整体毛利率同比下降1.22pct至47.07%，归母净利率同比上升0.28pct至18.96%。
　　国内需求波动较大，重点加大海外开拓。1）国内市场：2024年上半年，国内市场下游各行业需求分化明显，公司积极推广EMS2.0和EMS3.0，在公共事业、新能源及产业园区领域取得较好成效。2）海外市场：24H1公司海外营收同比增长72.46%至0.25亿元，公司已成功在超过120个国家拓展客户群，其中东南亚和欧洲市场的业务贡献占比合计超50%。公司加速布局海外渠道，已在亚洲、欧洲、中东、非洲、南美洲及北美洲等多个区域建立了广泛的代理商与经销商网络，并针对不同区域市场定制相应解决方案，未来有望快速推广。
　　EMS3.0推广取得成效，研发下沉助力销售。公司在EMS2.0基础上并入光储充平台，实现源网荷储充一体化柔性控制，发展升级为微电网智慧能源平台EMS3.0。公司的EMS3.0已完成产品研发架构，自2023年推出以来，已有数十个项目在运行中，未来有望持续改善公司盈利能力。此外，公司形成研发与销售联动，部分研发人员下沉市场，对销售团队进行提供技术指导，助力产品推广。
　　维持“买入”评级：24H1在国内需求波动较大的背景下公司积极推广迭代产品并加速拓展海外市场，业绩基本保持稳定，我们维持原盈利预测，预计公司24-26年归母净利润分别为2.42/3.03/3.80亿元，对应EPS分别为1.13/1.41/1.77元，当前股价对应24-26年PE分别为14/11/9倍。公司产品不断升级、销售渠道不断完善，加速布局海外市场助力未来成长，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：电改进度不及预期风险、微电网市场释放不及预期风险、公司渠道扩展不及预期风险、市场竞争加剧风险。