事件：公司发布2026年中期财务报告，2026年上半年实现营业收入14.04亿/-8.8%，归母净利润0.82亿/-39.4%，2026Q2单季度实现营业收入7.95亿/-5%，环比30.5%，归母净利润0.52亿/-43%，环比75.8%。
　　业绩短期承压，城改政策加码充分受益。公司业绩短期承压主要受部分订单交付节奏放缓、汇兑损失增加、理财公允价值变动收益缩水影响。2026年上半年公司实现销售毛利率35.7%/-0.2pct、销售净利率5.8%/-3pct、加权ROE1.8%/-1.2pct，2026Q2单季度实现销售毛利率35.8%/-0.7pct、销售净利率6.6%/-4.4pct、加权ROE1.2%/-0.9pct。2026年5月国务院印发《城市更新“十五五”规划》，要求系统推进供水、排水、污水、地下管网、防洪排涝、水环境综合治理、再生水规模化利用、污泥无害化处置、智慧水务建设等全链条升级，“十五五”时期全国将完成17.5万公里老旧供水管网改造，目标将城市供水管网平均漏损率降至10%以内，同时国家发改委联合住建部通过超长期特别国债积极支持城市燃气、排水、供水、供热等地下管网建设改造，2026年安排资金1,600亿元/18.5%，加快补齐相关城市地下管网建设短板，有望打开智慧城市建设市场，公司作为产业链上的表型设备龙头将尽享红利。
　　海外业务增长强劲，金卡哈萨克建成投产。公司持续深化全球化战略布局，在巩固既有优势市场的基础上，积极开拓东欧、西亚、南美等重点新兴区域，2026年上半年海外营业收入同比110.42%，金卡哈萨克生产基地建成投产，已与BTSDigital签订13.37亿元订单，有效缩短区域交付周期，标志着公司实现自“产品出口”向“产能出海、本地深耕”的关键跨越，随着渠道网络的不断完善，海外业务有望为整体业绩增长贡献更大增量。
　　绑定运营商与大型CSP，量子加密深度赋能。公司在智能控制器、计量传感、信号处理、结构设计、PaaS云平台、IoT云平台、SaaS服务等多个产业链环节掌握核心技术，与阿里云、华为、电信等企业形成战略合作，2026年上半年公司联合中电信量子集团、天翼物联，正式发布全国首个融合量子安全技术与RISC-V架构物联模组的燃气、水务综合解决方案，将量子安全能力下沉至终端侧，构建起“芯片-网络-平台”协同联动的立体安全防御体系。
　　投资建议：公司是智慧城市产业链表型设备龙头，产品成熟度与市场匹配性逐步提升，海外业务彰显潜力，我们调整公司2026/2027年盈利预测，新增2028年盈利预测，预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为2.15/2.64/3.19亿，EPS为0.51/0.63/0.76元，维持“推荐”评级。

　　根据公司2026年中报，1H26公司营收为14.04亿元，同比下滑8.75%；归母净利润为0.82亿元，同比下滑39.42%。其中2Q26单季公司营收为7.95亿元，同比下滑4.99%、环比增长30.50%；归母净利润为0.52亿元，同比下滑42.96%、环比增长75.77%，2Q26公司收入与净利呈现环比回暖。展望未来，公司作为国内智慧燃气表龙头，我们看好公司有望受益我国智慧燃气表渗透率的持续提升；此外，我们看好公司在流量计领域、海外市场的持续开拓，维持“增持”评级。
　　1H26燃气业务收入短期承压，外销收入同比高增长
　　分业务来看，其中1H26公司智能民用燃气终端及系统营收为9.27亿元，同比下滑7%，毛利率为31.78%，同比下滑0.19pct；智能工商业燃气终端及系统营收为2.87亿元，同比下滑10%，毛利率为47.44%，同比下滑0.30pct。我们判断公司燃气终端业务收入的短期承压主因部分订单交付节奏的影响。分地区来看，1H26公司内销营收为12.75亿元，同比下滑14%，毛利率为35.13%，同比下滑1.29pct；外销营收为1.29亿元，同比增长110%，毛利率为41.46%，同比提升18.07pct，公司紧抓高质量共建"一带一路"的战略机遇，且积极开拓东欧、西亚、南美等重点新兴区域。根据公司中报，金卡哈萨克已与BTSDigital签订约13.37亿人民币的销售合同。
　　1H26毛利率同比基本持平，研发端保持高度投入
　　1H26公司综合毛利率为35.71%，同比基本持平；2Q26单季毛利率为35.79%，同比下滑0.71pct、环比提升0.19pct。费用方面，1H26公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为15.96%/5.37%/8.27%，分别同比+0.23/+1.05/+0.88pct，研发端保持高度投入，公司持续研发扩充过程计量业务等产品品类，覆盖多元行业场景与特殊工况需求，以更齐全的高精度、多参数产品矩阵，筑牢市场竞争优势。
　　流量计、量子领域持续拓展，新产品有望打开成长天花板
　　展望未来，公司作为国内智慧燃气表龙头，我们看好公司有望受益我国智慧燃气表渗透率的持续提升；此外在流量计领域，根据公司2026年中报，公司积极拓展营销渠道，在巩固原有直销网络的同时，持续完善市场渠道体系，拓展化工、油气、特种气体、电力等多元行业，并借助行业展会与技术交流活动提升品牌影响力，有效扩大市场覆盖面。此外，公司紧跟国家十五五量子科技战略布局，聚焦公用事业领域数据安全刚需，创新性将量子加密技术深度融入公用事业场景，打造端到端、全链路、不可篡改、可溯源的量子安全防护网络，筑牢民生基础设施安全防线。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到部分订单交付节奏的影响，我们下调公司2026~2028年收入与归母净利润预测，预计2026~2028年归母净利润分别为2.90/3.38/3.81亿元（下调幅度：9%/10%/10%），可比公司2026年Wind一致预期PE均值为20x，给予公司2026年20xPE（前值：2026年21x，主因可比公司估值变化），对应目标价13.90元（前值：16.16元），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下燃气表更新需求不及预期；流量计业务开拓不及预期。

Goldcard Smart Group’s 1H26 revenue fell by 8.75% YoY to RMB1,404mn, with the attributable net profit down by 39.42% YoY to RMB82mn. For 2Q26, revenue reached RMB795mn, down by 4.99% YoY/up by 30.50% QoQ, while the attributable net profit came in at RMB52mn, down by 42.96% YoY/up by 75.77% QoQ, reflecting a sequential recovery in both the top and bottom lines. We expect the company to benefit from the continued increase in smart gas meter penetration in China, given its position as a domestic leader. We also see further earnings growth potential from its expansion into flowmeters and overseas markets. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Gas business revenue under short-term pressure in 1H26
By segment, smart residential gas terminals and systems generated revenue of RMB927mn in 1H26, down by 7% YoY, with a gross margin of 31.78%, down by 0.19pp YoY. Smart industrial and commercial gas terminals and systems posted revenue of RMB287mn, down by 10% YoY, with a gross margin of 47.44%, down by 0.30pp YoY. We attribute the near-term revenue softness in the gas terminal business primarily to the delivery pace of part of its orders. By region, domestic revenue came in at RMB1,275mn, down by 14% YoY, with a gross margin of 35.13%, down by 1.29pp YoY. Export revenue surged by 110% YoY to RMB129mn, with the gross margin up by 18.07pp YoY to 41.46%. The company is capitalizing on strategic opportunities tied to the Belt and Road Initiative while expanding into key emerging markets such as Eastern Europe, West Asia, and South America. According to the interim report, Goldcard Kazakhstan has signed a sales contract with BTS Digital worth c. RMB1,337mn.
Gross margin broadly flat YoY, R&D investment elevated
The blended gross margin in 1H26 was 35.71%, largely flat YoY. For 2Q26, the gross margin reached 35.79%, down by 0.71pp YoY but up by 0.19pp QoQ. On the cost side, the selling/administrative/R&D expense ratios in 1H26 were 15.96%/5.37%/8.27%, up by 0.23/1.05/0.88pp YoY. R&D spending remains elevated as the company continues to expand its process measurement product portfolio, covering a broader range of industry scenarios and specialized operating conditions. We think that a more comprehensive lineup of high-precision, multi-parameter products should strengthen its competitive moat.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We lower our 2026-2028 revenue and attributable net profit forecasts to reflect the delivery pace of some orders. We now forecast attributable net profit of RMB290/338/381mn for 2026/2027/2028 (-9/-10/-10% vs previously). Our 2026 target PE is 20x (previous: 21x, reflecting changes in peer valuations), based on the mean 2026E PE of 20x for comparable companies on Wind consensus. This yields our target price of RMB13.90 (previous: RMB16.16). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: slower replacement demand for gas meters than we expect, and slower ramp-up in the flowmeter business than we expect.

Goldcard Smart Group reported 2025 revenue of RMB3.2bn,up by 5.26%YoY.Attributable NP came in at RMB266mn,down by 26.16%YoY,below our expectation of RMB300mn.We believe this mainly reflected the delivery timing of some orders.In 1Q26,the company reported revenue of RMB609mn,down by 13.23%YoY,and attributable NP of RMB30mn,down by 32.00%YoY.Net profit was under short-term pressure in 1Q26,mainly due to the revenue decline.We believe this mainly reflected the delivery timing of some orders,as well as FX losses and changes in tax rebates.Looking ahead,as adomestic leader in smart gas meters,we expect the company to benefit from the continued increase in smart gas meter penetration in China.We also remain positive on its expansion in flow meters and overseas markets.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Steady smart civilian meter growth,faster overseas expansion
By product,in 2025 the company's smart civilian gas terminal and system business generated revenue of RMB2.0bn,up by 16.28%YoY.We believe this mainly benefited from the renovation of old residential communities in China and cyclical mandatory gas meter replacement.Smart industrial and commercial gas business revenue was RMB704mn,up by 0.33%YoY.Smart utility management system revenue was RMB288mn,down by 24.30%YoY.Smart water terminals and systems revenue was RMB221mn,down by 12.24%YoY.By region,domestic revenue reached RMB3.1bn in 2025,up by 3.17%YoY.Overseas revenue reached RMB176mn,up by 62.12%YoY.According to the company's 1Q26 report,the company made amajor breakthrough in overseas expansion by signing alarge gas business contract in Kazakhstan and receiving advance payments.
1Q26 GPM remains high,period expense ratio largely stable
The company's blended gross margin(GPM)was 37.12%in 2025,down by 2.62pp YoY.We believe this mainly reflected changes in revenue mix.In 1Q26,blended GPM was 35.60%,up 0.43 pp YoY,sustaining ahigh level.Expense control remained broadly stable.In 2025,selling,administrative,and R&D expense ratios were 17.19%,4.62%,and 7.40%,respectively,changing by+0.38pp,-0.07pp,and+0.10pp YoY.In 1Q26,selling,administrative,and R&D expense ratios were 16.07%,5.95%,and 9.21%,respectively,changing by-0.64pp,+1.55pp,and+1.35pp YoY.The company maintained orderly expense control,and operating efficiency remained stable.
Flow meter business and global expansion continue
Looking ahead,as adomestic leader in smart gas meters,we expect the company to benefit from the continued increase in smart gas meter penetration in China.In flow meters,according to the company's 2025 annual report,the digital process business completed explosion-proof certification and type evaluation certification for coriolis mass flow meters(CMF),electromagnetic flow meters(EMF),and vortex flow meters(VMF).Product maturity and market fit improved significantly.The company has already achieved trial installations and sales breakthroughs with more than 100 customers,laying asolid foundation for further market expansion.In addition,the company increased investment in overseas resources and completed international certifications for several key products,laying asolid foundation for broader overseas expansion.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
Given fluctuations in downstream demand and the delivery timing of some orders,we revise down our revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027,and introduce 2028 estimates.We now expect attributable NP of RMB320mn,RMB375mn,and RMB426mn for 2026-2028,representing cuts of 7%and 7%for our 2026 and 2027 estimates,respectively.We roll over our valuation to 2026 and raise the target price to RMB16.16(previously RMB15.75),on 21x 2026E PE,which is in line with the Wind consensus average for comparable companies.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Gas meter replacement demand falls short of our expectations,and flow meter business expansion falls short of our expectations.

　　根据公司2025年年报与2026年一季报，2025年公司营收为32.27亿元，同比增长5.26%；归母净利润为2.66亿元，同比下降26.16%，低于我们的预期（3.0亿），我们判断主因公司部分订单交付节奏影响。1Q26公司营收为6.09亿元，同比下降13.23%，归母净利润为0.30亿元，同比下降32.00%，1Q26公司净利短期承压，主要系收入下降，我们判断主因部分订单交付节奏影响，以及汇兑损失和退税变动影响。展望未来，公司作为国内智慧燃气表龙头，我们看好公司有望受益我国智慧燃气表渗透率的持续提升；此外，我们看好公司在流量计领域、海外市场的持续开拓，维持“增持”评级。
　　智能民用燃气表稳健增长，海外市场加速开拓
　　分产品来看，2025年公司智能民用燃气终端及系统营收为20.14亿元，同比增长16.28%，我们判断主要受益于国内老旧小区改造与周期性燃气表强制更新替换；智能工商业燃气业务营收为7.04亿元，同比增长0.33%；智慧公用事业业务营收为2.88亿元，同比下降24.30%；智能水务业务营收为2.21亿元，同比下降12.24%。分地区来看，2025年公司国内业务实现营收30.51亿元，同比增长3.17%；海外业务实现收入1.76亿元，同比增长62.12%，根据公司一季报，公司在海外业务拓展取得重大突破，成功签署哈萨克斯坦燃气业务大额合同并收到预收款。
　　1Q26综合毛利率保持高位，期间费用率整体平稳
　　2025年公司综合毛利率为37.12%，同比下降2.62pct，我们判断主因收入结构的变化；1Q26综合毛利率为35.60%，同比+0.43pcts，保持高位。费用管控方面整体平稳，2025年公司销售、管理、研发费用率分别为17.19%、4.62%、7.40%，分别同比+0.38pct、-0.07pct、+0.10pct。1Q26公司销售、管理、研发费用率分别为16.07%、5.95%、9.21%，分别同比-0.64pct、+1.55pct、+1.35pct。公司费用端管控有序，运营效率保持稳定。
　　流量计领域持续拓展，有望持续受益于全球布局
　　展望未来，公司作为国内智慧燃气表龙头，我们看好公司有望受益我国智慧燃气表渗透率的持续提升；此外在流量计领域，根据公司2025年报，数字过程领域，公司顺利完成质量流量计、电磁流量计、涡街流量计的防爆认证与型式评价取证，产品成熟度与市场适配性显著提升，已实现百余家客户的试挂与销售突破，为后续市场拓展奠定坚实基础；此外，公司加大海外资源投入力度，成功完成多款重点产品的国际认证，为海外市场的全面开拓奠定了坚实基础。
　　维持“增持”评级
　　考虑到公司下游市场需求的波动，以及公司部分订单交付节奏影响，我们下调公司2026~2027年收入与净利润预测，并引入2028年预期，预计公司2026~2028年归母净利润分别为3.20/3.75/4.26亿元（下调幅度：7%/7%/-），可比公司2026年Wind一致预期PE均值为21x，给予公司2026年21xPE（前值：2025年22xPE），对应目标价16.16元（前值：15.75元，目标价提升主因估值切换至2026年），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：燃气表更新需求不及预期；流量计业务开拓不及预期。