Hangzhou Sunrise Technology (Sunrise) has reported 2025 revenue of RMB1,687mn (-16.85% YoY) and an attributable NP of RMB567mn (-14.72% YoY). For 1Q26, revenue reached RMB296mn (-31.59% YoY) with an attributable NP of RMB95mn (-45.51% YoY). We attribute the declines mainly to reduced domestic meter tender volumes and prices in 2025. With new-standard meters entering the tender replacement cycle and the company’s continued overseas market expansion, we remain positive on its profit recovery potential. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Profit temporarily constrained
Sunrise Technology has reported 2025 revenue of RMB1,687mn (-16.85% YoY), an attributable NP of RMB567mn (-14.72% YoY), and a recurring attributable NP of RMB482mn (-25.24% YoY). For the year, the GPM and NPM were 43.10% (-4.45pp YoY) and 34.31% (+1.27pp YoY) respectively. For 2025, the expense ratio was 11.59% (+0.19pp YoY), with the sales/administrative/finance/R&D expense ratios at 3.53/4.35/-4.45/8.17% (+0.26/+0.83/-1.61/+0.71pp YoY). The significant drop in the finance expense ratio was mainly due to increased bank deposit interest income. For 1Q26, revenue reached RMB296mn (-31.59% YoY) with an attributable NP of RMB95mn (-45.51% YoY), while the GPM and NPM were 40.97% (-1.55pp YoY) and 32.26% (-8.41pp YoY) respectively. We attribute the temporary profit pressure primarily to reduced domestic meter tender volumes and price declines in 2025.
Revenue dip on domestic meter price cuts & standard iteration
Sunrise Technology’s 2025 segment performances diverged, with smart metering & data collection systems/smart power terminals & systems/smart flow meters & systems/IoT sensors & accessories/smart power distribution products & systems generating revenues of RMB1,457/70/64/40/37mn (-11.22/+8.07/+19.25/-76.09/ -56.89% YoY, while their GPMs were 44.62/39.29/24.71/21.18/28.53% (-6.53/ -2.32/+0.14/-11.94/+5.45pp YoY). As the primary revenue and profit driver, smart metering & data collection systems accounted for 86.39% of 2025 revenue but saw some decline due to domestic meter price reductions and the transition between old and new standards.
Overseas GPM up, R&D spending consolidated tech moat
For 2025, the company generated domestic revenue of RMB1,499mn (-17.87% YoY), accounting for 88.88% of total revenue and significantly impacted by grid tender timing, while overseas revenue reached RMB188mn (-7.68% YoY), representing 11.12% of total revenue. The domestic/overseas GPMs were 43.18/42.47% (-5.57/+5.63pp YoY), with domestic margin pressure mainly due to intense grid bidding competition and overseas margins showing notable improvement. Meanwhile, the company invested RMB138mn in R&D (8.17% of revenue) in 2025, continuing to develop high-end metering products, dual-mode communication cloud-edge concentrators, and other technologies for new power systems and smart energy scenarios.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the impact of meter price reductions, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 23.04/23.92% to RMB626/690mn (previous: RMB813/ 907mn) and introduce our 2028 forecast of RMB767mn, with 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB1.22/1.34/1.49. As of 27 April 2026, its peers’ average 2026E PE on Wind consensus was 13x, and we assign the company 13x 2026E PE, deriving our target price of RMB15.86 (previous: RMB18.15 based on 13x 2025E PE). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: fewer bid wins for smart meters than we expect; intensified competition denting profitability; disappointing expansion of charging station business.

　　炬华科技2025年实现营业收入16.87亿元（yoy-16.85%），归母净利5.67亿元（yoy-14.72%）；公司26Q1实现营业收入2.96亿元（yoy-31.59%），归母净利0.95亿元（yoy-45.51%）。我们认为主要系受到2025年国内电表招标数量及价格下滑影响，伴随新标表开启招标替换，同时公司海外市场持续开拓，我们看好公司盈利持续提升，维持“增持”评级。
　　公司盈利阶段性承压
　　公司2025年实现营业收入16.87亿元（yoy-16.85%），归母净利5.67亿元（yoy-14.72%），扣非归母净利4.82亿元（yoy-25.24%）；2025年分别实现毛、净利率43.10%、34.31%，yoy-4.45、+1.27pct。公司25年期间费用率11.59%，同比+0.19pct，其中销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别为3.53%、4.35%、-4.45%、8.17%，同比+0.26、+0.83、-1.61、+0.71pct，财务费用率显著下降主要系本报告期收到的银行存款利息增加所致。公司26Q1实现营业收入2.96亿元（yoy-31.59%），归母净利0.95亿元（yoy-45.51%）；26Q1分别实现毛、净利率40.97%、32.26%，yoy-1.55、-8.41pct。我们认为公司盈利阶段性承压主要系受到2025年国内电表招标数量及价格下滑影响。
　　主业受国内电表降价及新老标准交替阶段影响，收入有所下滑
　　公司2025年分板块经营表现分化，智慧计量与采集系统、智能电力终端及系统、智能流量仪表及系统、物联网传感器及配件、智能配用电产品及系统分别实现营业收入14.57、0.70、0.64、0.40、0.37亿元，同比-11.22%、+8.07%、+19.25%、-76.09%、-56.89%；毛利率分别为44.62%、39.29%、24.71%、21.18%、28.53%，同比-6.53、-2.32、+0.14、-11.94、+5.45pct。
　　智慧计量与采集系统为公司主要收入与利润来源，2025年营收占比达86.39%，但受国内电表降价及新老标准交替阶段影响，营收有一定下滑。
　　海外毛利率有所提升，研发投入夯实技术壁垒
　　公司2025年国内实现营收14.99亿元（yoy-17.87%），占比88.88%，受电网招标节奏影响明显；国外营收1.88亿元（yoy-7.68%），占比11.12%。公司2025年国内、外毛利率43.18%、42.47%，同比-5.57、+5.63pct，国内主要系国内电网竞价激烈所致，海外市场毛利率有明显提升。同时，公司25年研发投入1.38亿元，占营收8.17%，持续投入高端计量、双模通信云边集中器等产品，为新型电力系统与智慧能源场景储备技术。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到电表降价影响，我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润-23.04%/-23.92%至6.26/6.90亿元（前值8.13/9.07亿元），新增28年预测7.67亿元，对应26-28年EPS为1.22/1.34/1.49元。截至4月27日，可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为13倍，给予公司26年13倍PE，给予目标价15.86元（前值18.15元，对应25年13倍PE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：智能电表中标量不及预期：行业竞争加剧导致盈利能力下降；充电桩业务拓展不及预期。