Jinlei Technology reported revenue/attributable net profit (NP) of RMB1.26/0.14bn for 1H26 (+8.9/-24.0% YoY), and RMB0.69/0.07bn for 2Q26 (-2.8/-43.5% YoY, +22.5/+9.1% QoQ). In our view, the YoY pressure on 2Q earnings was primarily driven by: 1) delayed domestic wind power deliveries alongside a high base from installation rushes in 1H25; 2) underutilized new free forging capacity driving up unit expenses, combined with insufficient machining capacity leaving certain products delivered without full-process completion; 3) increased financial expenses due to FX losses. Looking ahead, we expect HoH improvement in domestic wind power deliveries in 2H26 to support earnings recovery. The company is actively expanding category footprints and market reach to build diversified growth momentum. Maintain BUY.
Considering that domestic delivery delays may constrain capacity utilization and that early-stage investments for new capacity and businesses remain heavy, we cut our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 17.28/9.46/6.61% to RMB396/509/647mn (a 3-year CAGR of 27.20%), implying EPS of RMB1.24/1.59/ 2.02. Considering that the company continues deepening category and market expansion – providing solid support for medium-to-long-term earnings growth – we value the stock at 18x 2026E PE, above its peers' average of 13.3x on Wind consensus (previous: 13.8x), for our target price of RMB22.32 (previous: RMB27, based on 18x 2026E PE).

　　业绩简评
　　8月24日公司披露2026年中报，上半年实现营收12.6亿元，同比增长8.9%；实现归母净利润1.43亿元，同比下降24%；其中，二季度公司实现营收6.91亿元，同比下降2.8%，环比增长22.5%；实现归母净利润0.74亿元，同比下降43.5%，环比增长9.1%，同比承压主要受去年上半年政策影响抢装形成的高基数影响。
　　经营分析
　　受去年同期高基数及产能利用率不足影响，短期盈利有所承压。上半年公司风电轴类业务实现营业收入8.14亿元，同比下降6.4%，毛利率24.5%，同比下降1.0pct，预计主要受上半年出货下降及产品结构切换影响；其他精密轴类产品实现收入2.65亿元，同比提升45.6%，毛利率27.2%，同比下降7.0pct，主要受新投产的1.5万吨压机产能利用率较低单位固定费用增加及机加工能力不足委外成本上升影响，随着新领域新产品开发持续加强，看好后续其他精密轴类产品盈利实现修复。
　　新领域新产品持续拓展，中长期成长性可期。随着公司1.5万吨压机产能的持续释放，公司自由锻件产品应用进一步向船舶海工、能源电力装备以及大型水泥矿山设备等高端领域延伸，报告期内完成电网稳压核心设备转子轴等电网装备领域高端锻件的订单签订，并成功开发核废料处理领域客户，核乏料罐产品已签署订单并积极推进小批量交付，高附加值产品占比稳步提升。
　　海外收入略有放缓，客户合作持续突破。公司上半年实现海外收入3.68亿元，同比下降16.1%，预计主要受短期要货节奏影响。公司上半年海外市场持续取得突破，和主要欧美大客户的合作关系也实现了进一步的加强，截至半年报披露，公司已完成维斯塔斯铸造产品供应商认证，恩德铸造产品已完成样件交付，进入试装验证阶段，西门子歌美飒海上大兆瓦风机主轴等产品的合作规模持续扩大，中长期渗透率有望持续提升。
　　盈利预测、估值与评级
　　看好下半年行业迎来装机旺季并带动公司业绩逐步释放，新产品突破及海外渗透率持续下中长期成长性可期，我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润预测至4.1、5.3、6.4亿元，对应当前PE15、12、10倍，维持“买入”评级
　　风险提示
　　原材料价格波动风险；汇率波动风险。

　　公司公布上半年业绩：收入12.6亿元（yoy+8.9%），归母净利1.4亿元（yoy-24.0%）；其中Q2实现营收6.9亿元（yoy/qoq-2.8%/+22.5%），归母净利0.7亿元（yoy/qoq-43.5%/+9.1%）。公司二季度业绩同比承压，主要原因包括：1）国内风电交付延期，叠加去年同期国内抢装高基数；2）新增自由锻产能释放不充分导致单位费用增加，以及机加工能力不足导致部分产品未全流程交付；3）汇兑损失导致财务费用上升。展望后续，下半年国内风电交付环比改善有望支撑业绩修复，公司积极深化品类扩张与市场拓展，构筑多元化成长动能，维持“买入”评级。
　　风电：国内交付延期拖累短期业绩释放，积极拓展海外及滑轴业务
　　1H26公司风电轴类收入8.1亿元，同比-6.4%，毛利率24.5%，同比-1.0pct，主要受制于国内部分项目交付延期，叠加去年同期全国抢装高基数。海外市场交付保持稳健增长，公司外销收入3.7亿元，同比下滑主要系装配业务调整为净额法确认收入，毛利率28.6%，同比+6.0pct。公司积极推进铸造业务海外海风拓展，已完成维斯塔斯铸造产品供应商认证；恩德铸造产品已完成样件交付，处于客户试装验证阶段；西门子歌美飒海上大兆瓦风机主轴等产品的合作规模持续扩大。新业务方面，公司主轴滑动轴承已完成与战略客户的样机合同签署并进入验证阶段；齿轮箱滑动轴承已实现样件交付并推进批量供货准备。
　　其他铸锻件：产能释放不充分拖累毛利率，积极开拓产品应用领域
　　1H26公司其他精密轴类收入2.6亿元，同比+45.6%，多元化下游场景推动收入大幅增长；毛利率27.2%，同比-7.0pct，主要受制于新投产1.5万吨压机产能未完全释放，产能利用率不足导致单位固定费用增加，叠加机加工能力不足导致部分委外加工或交付半成品拖累盈利能力。公司积极开拓产品应用领域，有望打造成长新动能，锻件领域已实现射电望远镜俯仰轴、电网稳压核心设备转子轴等订单签订，铸件领域已签署核乏料罐订单并推动小批量交付，实现高附加值产品占比稳步提升。
　　关注欧洲海风招标释放提振需求预期
　　自2H26至27年初，欧洲或迎来密集拍卖活动，包括英国AR8（项目池超17GW）、法国AO10（总规模10GW）、荷兰2GW，叠加德国或将引入双向CfD以重启海风拍卖，我们看好项目招标释放有望强化产业链订单预期。公司已完成维斯塔斯及西门子歌美飒主力海风机型供应商认证，有望受益于下游需求释放实现订单落地。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到国内部分项目交付延期或导致产能释放受限，叠加新产能、新业务前期投入较大，我们下调公司26-28年归母净利润（-17.28%/-9.46%/-6.61%）至3.96/5.09/6.47亿元（三年复合增速为27.20%），对应EPS为1.24/1.59/2.02元。参考可比公司2026年PE均值为13.3x（前值2026年13.8xPE），考虑到公司持续深化品类扩张与市场拓展，为中长期业绩增长提供较强支撑，给予2026年18xPE，对应目标价为22.32元（前值27元，对应2026年18xPE）。
　　风险提示：风电行业装机不及预期、市场竞争加剧、新业务拓展不及预期、原材料价格波动、地缘政治不确定性、产能爬坡不及预期。

　　事件：近日，公司发布2026年半年报，公司上半年实现营收12.55亿元，同比增长8.92%，实现归母净利润1.43亿元，同比下降24.00%，实现扣非归母净利润1.33亿元，同比下降25.42%。其中，2026Q2，公司实现营收6.91亿元，同比下降2.76%，环比增长22.46%，实现归母净利润0.74亿元，同比下降43.51%，环比增长9.10%，实现扣非归母净利润0.69亿元，同比下降45.50%，环比增长5.60%，业绩不及市场预期。
　　风电主轴业务短期承压，Q3有望迎来修复。2026H1公司风电主轴实现营收8.14亿元，同比下滑6.40%，风电收入下滑主要因为25H1风电抢装基数高、以及26H1海风开工率较低，2026H1国内风电新增装机38.62GW，同比下滑24.8%，因此公司Q2出货量阶段承压，但Q3风电开始进入装机旺季，7月份风电新增装机8.45GW，同比增长270.61%，同时公司已完成维斯塔斯铸造产品供应商认证，预计Q3开始小批量供货，随着下半年装机旺季到来，叠加海外客户订单逐步落地，风电主轴业务有望迎来修复。
　　其他精密轴类高速增长，非风电业务持续拓展。26H1公司其他精密轴业务实现营收2.65亿元，同比增长45.60%，有效对冲风电轴类收入6.4%的下滑；受新投产1.5万吨压机产能利用率不足及机加工能力受限拖累，板块实现毛利率27.16%，同比下滑7.03pct，短期盈利承压但为长期产能释放奠定基础；同时，公司持续拓展高附加值产品线，新开发核乏料罐产品、电网稳压核心设备转子轴等高毛利产品，非风电业务高速拓展。
　　下调盈利预测，维持“买入”评级：考虑到上半年风电建设以及当前海风建设进度弱于预期，我们下调26-28年归母净利润至4.58、6.29、7.72亿元（原值为6.00、7.24、8.30亿元），对应EPS分别为1.43、1.96、2.41元/股，对应26-28年PE分别为13、9、8倍，公司是全球风电锻造主轴的龙头企业，通过扩产大兆瓦铸件，抓住海上风电发展机遇，综合实力不断提升，同时参考26年行业可比公司平均PE估值水平，我们维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：风电装机需求不及预期、原材料价格上涨、产能利用不及预期、海外业务拓展不及预期等。

We initiate Jinlei Technology at BUY with a 12-month A-share target price of RMB27, implying 18x 2026E PE. As a global leader in wind turbine main shafts, the company is executing a dual-engine strategy spanning forging and casting, while accelerating overseas expansion and maintaining an industry-leading market share. It is broadening its wind product portfolio into bearing housings, hub bases, and sliding bearings. Leveraging its integrated casting and forging production capabilities, Jinlei is also diversifying into precision shafts and spent nuclear fuel canisters, building multiple growth drivers.
Promising cast main shafts amid global wind power upcycle
Energy security and the clean energy transition are driving the global wind industry into a strong upcycle. In China, the Beijing Declaration on Wind Energy 2.0 sets out installation targets for the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030). In Europe, the Joint Offshore Wind Investment Pact for the North Sea targets 300GW of offshore wind capacity in the North Sea by 2050. GWEC forecasts 969.5GW of global new wind installations over 2026-2030, up 70% from 2021-2025, with onshore/offshore at 840/129.5GW. To meet the demand for larger, lower-cost, and lighter turbines, cast main shaft penetration is rising. We estimate penetration at 46/57/62% in 2025/2026/2027, implying market demand of 353/467/524kt.
Focus on forging & casting; leading peers in overseas expansion
Jinlei is reinforcing its wind power foundation by deepening its dual-engine strategy and expanding overseas. 1) Forging: Jinlei’s profitability outpaces peers, supported by advanced production processes, self-supplied raw materials, and a high-quality customer base. 2) Casting: Its products include main shafts, bearing housings, hubs, and bases. Casting capacity reached 100ktpa in 2025. As cast main shaft penetration rises, capacity utilization climbed to 102%. The company plans to add 80ktpa capacity in 2026 to meet customer demand. 3) New businesses: Jinlei is developing sliding bearings. It has delivered gearbox bearing samples and signed a prototype contract for main shaft bearings. 4) Overseas expansion: The company has built out its global customer base. It is a core forging main shaft supplier to Siemens Gamesa, Vestas, and Nordex, with overseas revenue contributing over 25% in recent years — among the highest in the industry. It is also pushing its casting business into global markets, having begun scaling offshore cast main shaft orders from Siemens Gamesa and completed casting product supplier certification with Vestas.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We forecast net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB479/562/693mn in 2026/27/28E, implying EPS of RMB1.50/1.75/2.16. Peer comps trade at an average 2026E PE of 13.8x on Wind consensus. Given Jinlei's category expansion and market development, which provide strong support for medium-to-long-term earnings growth, we assign an 18x 2026E PE, yielding a target price of RMB27. We initiate Jinlei at BUY.
Risks: lower-than-we-expected wind power installations, intensifying competition, slower-than-we-expected new business expansion, raw material price volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and slower-than-we-expected capacity ramp-up.