Sinoseal Holding has released its annual report, achieving revenue of RMB1.77bn for 2025 (up by 12.91% YoY), an attributable NP of RMB385mn (down by 1.80% YoY), and a recurring NP of RMB366mn (up by 0.09% YoY). For 4Q25, revenue was RMB485mn (up by 14.58% YoY, up by 13.98% QoQ), and the attributable NP was RMB107mn (down by 11.84% YoY, up by 18.01% QoQ). The profit decline was mainly due to share-based payment amortization—excluding this impact, the attributable NP would have been RMB415mn (up 5.40% YoY). For 2025, the attributable NP was slightly below our previous forecast (RMB427mn), primarily due to tepid downstream demand and the consolidation of KS GmbH, which has lower gross margins, leading to weaker profitability than we expected. However, we remain positive on the company’s active expansion into overseas growth markets and its competitive advantages in the domestic market, anticipating stable growth ahead. Maintain BUY.
GPM slightly constrained, with sound expense control
For 2025, the company’s GPM was 45.58% (down by 2.76pp YoY), mainly due to slight margin declines in incremental businesses within the mechanical seal segment and the consolidation of KS GmbH, which has relatively lower margins, in the rubber and plastic seal segment. For 4Q25, the GPM was 49.74% (-0.59pp YoY, +5.78pp QoQ). Regarding expense ratios, the 2025 sales/administrative/ financial/R&D expense ratios were 8.62/6.86/-0.45/5.08% (-0.44/+0.32/-0.27/ +0.24pp YoY). The overall expense ratio was 20.10% (-0.15pp YoY), reflecting effective cost control.
Domestic market share rising; actively expanding overseas market
1) In the domestic market, although large-scale integrated refining and chemical projects remained scarce in 2025, the company strengthened its industry leadership position and further increased market share. The coal chemical industry, especially new projects in Xinjiang, saw accelerated development, bringing new market opportunities. Additionally, in 2025, the company supported multiple CCUS projects, including those for PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield, Tarim Petrochemical, and Huadian Mulei, achieving sustained strides in the new energy sector. 2) In the international market, the company completed supplier qualification approvals for multiple clients in regions/countries such as the Middle East, Europe, and South Korea in 2025, with international revenue from the mechanical seal segment reaching nearly RMB240mn (up ~20% YoY). The company has decided to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on international markets to enhance global business expansion and project execution capabilities. Meanwhile, its Vietnam maintenance center commenced operations in 2025, with additional centers in the Middle East and Indonesia scheduled to launch in 2026, further improving international service capabilities. The company continues to pursue its internationalization strategy, with overseas revenue poised to grow further.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that downstream petrochemical capex has yet to recover, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts to RMB424/470mn (adjusted down by 13.65/16.28% from our prior estimates) and introduce our new 2028 attributable NP forecast of RMB521mn, with EPS of RMB2.04/2.26/2.51. Given the company’s active expansion into overseas incremental markets with potential for further breakthroughs, we value the stock at 24x 2026E PE, on par with its peers’ average on iFind consensus. We raise our target price to RMB48.21 (previous: RMB47.20 on 20x 2026E PE).
Risks: lower downstream demand than we expect; slow post-acquisition integration.

　　中密控股发布年报，2025年实现营收17.69亿元（yoy+12.91%），归母净利3.85亿元（yoy-1.80%），扣非净利3.66亿元（yoy+0.09%）。其中Q4实现营收4.85亿元（yoy+14.58%，qoq+13.98%），归母净利1.07亿元（yoy-11.84%，qoq+18.01%）。利润下降主要受股份支付摊销影响，扣除股份支付影响后公司归母净利4.15亿元，同比增加5.40%。25年归母净利润略低于我们此前预期（4.27亿元），主要是公司下游需求偏弱，加之毛利率偏低的KSGmbH并表，导致毛利率不及此前预期。但我们看好公司积极开拓海外增量市场，且在国内市场具备优势，未来有望实现稳健增长，维持“买入”评级。
　　公司毛利率略有承压，期间费用整体管控良好
　　2025年公司综合毛利率45.58%，同比-2.76pct，主要系公司机械密封板块增量业务毛利率小幅下滑，叠加橡塑密封板块合并了毛利率相对较低的KSGmbH所致；25Q4单季度毛利率49.74%，同比-0.59pct，环比+5.78pct。期间费用率方面，2025年销售费用率8.62%，同比-0.44pct；管理费用率6.86%，同比+0.32pct；财务费用率-0.45%，同比-0.27pct；研发费用率5.08%，同比+0.24pct。合计期间费用率达20.10%，同比-0.15pct，期间费用整体管控良好。
　　国内市场占有率持续提升，积极开拓海外增量市场
　　1）国内市场：25年虽国内新上大型炼化一体化项目依然较少，但公司筑牢行业龙头地位，市占率进一步提升；煤化工行业尤其是新疆煤化工新上项目节奏明显加快，为公司带来新的市场增量；此外公司25年配套中石油新疆油田、塔里木石化、华电木垒等多个CCUS项目，新能源领域实现持续突破。2）国际市场：25年公司完成中东、欧洲、韩国等地区/国家的多家国际客户供应商资质入网，机械密封板块国际业务营收近2.4亿元，同比增长约20%。公司已决定成立全资子公司专注国际市场，全方面提升国际业务市场拓展力度与项目执行水平；同时25年公司越南维修中心已投运，预计26年还将投运中东、印尼的维修/服务中心，进一步提升国际业务服务能力。公司持续践行国际化发展战略，海外业务营收有望进一步增长。
　　海外公司收购完成，业务协同逐步深入
　　公司25年2月公告完成对德国KSGmbH公司的全资收购，提升公司上游核心原材料自主可控能力。25年公司实现收购后的平稳过渡，KSGmbH业绩实现历史新高，营收达0.93亿元、净利润0.04亿元，同比增长显著。主要为KSGmbH产品技术优势领先、品牌口碑佳，且电气行业的需求大幅增加带来层压材料的订单明显增长。此外子公司优泰科还帮助KSGmbH的导向环产品提升在国内煤矿特别是大型井工煤矿设备配套中的市场占有率，业务协同逐步深入。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到下游石化资本开支等待复苏，我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润至4.24/4.70亿元（较前值调整-13.65%/-16.28%），新增预测28年归母净利润5.21亿元，对应EPS为2.04、2.26、2.51元。可比公司2026年iFind一致预期PE为24倍，由于公司积极开拓海外增量市场、有望实现进一步市场突破，给予公司行业平均估值水平26年24倍PE，略微上调对应目标价为48.21元（前值47.20元，对应26年PE20倍）。
　　风险提示：下游行业需求不及预期，对收购公司整合效果不及预期。

　　公司公布三季度业绩：收入4.26亿元，同比+1.66%，环比-4.73%；归母净利润0.91亿元，同比-6.89%，环比-2.52%；扣非归母净利润0.85亿元，同比-8.01%，环比-3.06%。前三季度公司实现收入12.83亿元，同比+12.30%；归母净利润2.78亿元，同比+2.71%；扣非归母净利润2.59亿元，同比+2.43%。Q3营收环比下降主要系机械密封板块国际项目及特种阀门板块项目交付节奏放缓，部分业务集中于四季度落地所致；利润下降主要系公司股份支付摊销影响，扣除股份支付影响后Q3归母净利润为0.98亿元（yoy+0.81%/qoq+5.54%），扣非归母净利润为0.93亿元（yoy+0.07%/qoq+5.46%）。考虑到公司产品的全面布局及产能扩张持续推进，整体经营有望持续向上，维持“买入”评级。
　　毛利率承压，期间费用率持续优化
　　前三季度公司综合毛利率44.01%，同比-3.60pct，Q3单季度毛利率43.96%，同比-4.46pct，毛利率下降主要系下游需求未明显回暖，增量业务毛利率偏低且Q3占比同比提升所致。期间费用率方面，前三季度销售费率7.88%，同比-0.88pct；管理费用率7.41%，同比+0.61pct；财务费用率-0.59%，同比-0.49pct；研发费用率4.65%，同比-0.04pct。合计期间费用率达19.34%，同比-0.80pct，期间费用管控良好。
　　逆势拓局，并购分红双驱动发展
　　2025年以来公司下游石化行业新上大型项目稀缺，但公司凭借多年来的市场积累和综合竞争力优势，依然在国内市场不断突破，同时紧跟国家“一带一路”倡议，积极推进国际市场业务持续成长。公司2025年2月发布公告，完成对德国KSGmbH公司的全资收购，提升公司上游核心原材料自主可控能力；公司实施了2024年年度权益分派，2025年预计持续实施分红，提升投资者回报。
　　聚焦产能扩展与研发突破，数字化建设全面延伸
　　公司前期扩产计划已完成，日机密封厂区及总部新办公大楼在建且投用后将完成现有土地规划，FMS产线启动试生产，优泰科完成全系列无模具密封加工设备及配套软件升级。经过近五年数字化建设，公司主要信息系统已基本覆盖各业务板块，期间新地佩尔上线仓储管理软件系统（WMS）、三家控股子公司上线费控系统。此外，公司加大研发投入，成功推出SIMS2.0并斩获商业订单，新地佩尔研制出截止式防喘振阀，优泰科推进全氟醚橡胶产品新尺寸和新材料开发，公司及子公司合计获得18项授权专利（含8项发明专利）。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到下游客户面对的市场需求尚未明显回暖，我们下调公司25-27年归母净利润（-2.47%/-3.61%/-4.30%）至4.27/4.91/5.61亿元，对应EPS为2.06/2.36/2.70元。可比公司2026年PE为26倍，考虑到下游市场需求尚未明显复苏，给予公司26年20倍PE估值，对应目标价为47.20元（前值46.42元，对应25年PE22倍）。
　　风险提示：下游行业需求不及预期，对收购公司整合效果不及预期。