Zhenghai’s revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit came in at RMB160/33/27mn in 1H26,down 14.9/28.4/32.6%YoY.In 2Q26,revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit were RMB79/19/15mn,down 12.9/6.6/7.9%YoY.Given the expanding coverage of volume-based procurement(VBP)for the company's core dural repair products and the likely ongoing impact,as well as continued pressure on dental restoration products from demand fluctuations and competition,we downgrade to OVERWEIGHT from Buy.
Dental restoration membrane revenue/gross margin fell YoY
In 1H26,dental restoration membrane revenue was RMB58mn,down 25.1%YoY,with gross margin of 78.93%,down 7.05pp YoY.This mainly reflected weaker demand from private dental implant procedures,slower surgical volume growth,and intensifying competition.Dural membrane revenue was RMB69mn in 1H26,down 13.5%YoY,with gross margin of 88.88%,up 0.04pp YoY.The company won bids for dural membrane products in VBP across provinces.As VBP expands,we expect the company to keep participating actively to defend market share,and the related impact may persist.
Selling expense ratio declined YoY,gross margin fell
In 1H26,the selling/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 37.28/9.13/15.02/-0.06%,changing-0.61/+0.63/+1.64/+0.03pp YoY.The company controlled selling expenses,lowering the selling expense ratio YoY.Gross margin was 82.37%in 1H26,down 1.54pp YoY.We attribute the decline mainly to intensifying competition and VBP pressure on product margins.
Earnings under pressure;downgrade to OVERWEIGHT
Given the rollout of VBP for high-value consumables,the likely continued impact on dural repair products,and pressure on dental restoration products from demand fluctuations and intensifying competition,we expect revenue and gross margin to remain under pressure.We lower our revenue growth forecasts for dental restoration membranes and dural repair products,and cut our gross margin forecast for dental restoration membranes.We forecast 2026/27/28 attributable net profit of RMB70/74/79mn,down 25/28/31%from prior estimates,representing-15.2/+5.7/+6.5%YoY,with EPS of RMB0.39/0.41/0.44.We apply a2026E PE of 46x,in line with the average of 46x for peers on Wind consensus,and derive atarget price of RMB17.87(previous:RMB22.14 based on 43x 2026E PE).
Risks:slower progress on new products than we expect,and weaker volume ramp for VBP-related products than we expect.

　　公司1H26收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润1.60/0.33/0.27亿元，同比-14.9%/-28.4%/-32.6%。2Q26收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润0.79/0.19/0.15亿元，同比-12.9%/-6.6%/-7.9%。鉴于公司主力产品脑膜补片产品集采地区不断扩大、受集采影响或持续，口腔修复产品因市场需求波动及行业竞争影响而持续承压，可能将进一步对公司业绩产生影响，我们下调至“增持”评级。
　　口腔修复膜收入及毛利率均同比下滑，脑膜收入因集采同比下滑
　　1H26公司口腔修复膜收入0.58亿元（同比-25.1%），毛利率78.93%（同比-7.05pct），主要由于民营种植牙需求回落，手术量增长放缓，叠加市场竞争加剧，口腔修复膜收入增速承压。1H26脑膜收入0.69亿元（同比-13.5%），脑膜毛利率88.88%（同比+0.04pct），公司脑膜产品在各省集采均中标，我们认为随着集采进一步推行，公司为保持市场份额积极参与集采，集采相关影响或持续。
　　1H26公司销售费用率同比下降，毛利率同比下滑
　　1H26销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为37.28%/9.13%/15.02%/-0.06%，同比-0.61/+0.63/+1.64/+0.03pct。公司控制销售费用投入，1H26销售费用率同比下降。1H26毛利率82.37%，同比-1.54pct，我们认为主因市场竞争加剧及集采等影响下公司产品毛利率下降。
　　业绩持续承压，下调至“增持”评级
　　考虑到国家高值耗材集采持续推行、公司脑膜补片产品受集采影响或持续，且口腔修复产品因市场需求波动和行业竞争加剧等影响，收入、毛利率持续承压，我们下调口腔修复膜及脑膜补片等收入增速预期，下调口腔修复膜毛利率预期，预测26-28年归母净利润分别为0.70/0.74/0.79亿元（相比前值-25%/-28%/-31%），同比-15.2%/+5.7%/+6.5%，对应EPS0.39/0.41/0.44元。我们给予26年46x的PE估值（可比公司26年Wind一致预期均值46x），目标价17.87元（前值22.14元，对应26年43xPE）。
　　风险提示：新产品进度不如预期；集采产品放量低于预期。