Off-Season Profit Resilient
发布时间:2026-04-27 来源:华泰证券
Zhidemai's 2025 revenue was RMB1,288mn (-15.15% YoY), attributable net profit (NP) was RMB86.52mn (+14.99% YoY), and recurring NP was RMB73.38mn (+2.17% YoY). For 1Q26, revenue was RMB272mn (+1.28% YoY), attributable NP was RMB3.58mn (+141.61% YoY), and recurring NP was RMB0.34mn (+103.30% YoY). In 2025, revenue came under pressure, mainly because the company downsized its low-margin inefficient businesses, while recurring NP growth was driven by GPM improvement and refined cost-efficiency measures. Despite an off-season in 1Q, the company turned profitable, demonstrating operating resilience. In the long run, we expect AI to continue consolidating the company's platform-based competitiveness. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Business mix optimization lifted GPM
The user base of "smzdm.com" remained solid throughout 2025. At end-2025, the number of registered users grew by 4.57% YoY to 31.74mn, mobile activations increased by 7.14% YoY to 83.12mn, and the share of ordering users on the mobile app rose by 0.9pp YoY to 14.97%, mainly because AI technology improved the accuracy of product matching and boosted payment conversion. The company continued to downsize low-margin businesses such as brand marketing to sharpen its focus on its main business of high-value consumer content, with an optimized revenue mix driving up GPM. For 2025/1Q26, GPM was 50.17/43.51% (+2.97/+3.19pp YoY).
Off-season expense savings improved profitability
For 2025, the combined sales, R&D, and administrative expense ratio rose by 1.54pp YoY to 41.87%, mainly due to further increased R&D investment in underlying AI technologies and product applications in 3Q25. For 1Q26, the combined sales, R&D, and administrative expense ratio was 41.69% (-3.30pp YoY), of which the sales expense ratio was 14.33% (-4.33pp YoY). Refined expense control delivered more visible results in an off-season, helping the company turn around YoY on a recurring NP basis.
Accelerated AI commercialization to support long-term growth
Zhidemai has been iterating its general AI platform to shape a full spectrum of solutions including AI Shopping Steward, Zhishu AI Insights, and Haina MCP Server. In 2025, the company accelerated AI application based on a hybrid model of private deployment and third-party model integration across its business lines. For 2025, AI-related revenue was RMB87.17mn. In 4Q25, the company consumed 1,173.64bn tokens by calling third-party model APIs (+734% vs 1Q25). For 1Q26, AI-related revenue was RMB24.36mn, the company consumed 512.64bn tokens by calling third-party model APIs (+264.35% YoY), and its Haina MCP Server delivered 1.07bn content outputs (+225.43% QoQ vs 4Q25). The number of model partners continued to expand. With AI empowering content production, consumer price comparison, and 2B data services, commercialization is accelerating, and the second growth driver is gradually taking shape.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 16/10% to RMB131/162mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB223mn. Given the company's accelerated AI commercialization, we base our valuation on 2027E to price in its medium-/long-term growth potential. That said, as its AI-related revenue is still in a
ramp-up phase, we value the stock at 70x 2027E PE, implying a discount to its peers' average of 98.66x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB56.92 (previous: RMB42.46, based on 65x 2025E PE). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: Slower GMV growth than we expect, weaker e-commerce consumption, and lower AI service conversion rate than we expect.