Caina Technology's 2025 revenue/attributable NP were RMB357/6mn (-8.0/-89.4% YoY), in line with its profit alert (forecast attributable NP of RMB4-6mn). The company's 2025 earnings declined, mainly due to the continued impact of the US FDA import alert and the international trade environment on related businesses, coupled with the company's strengthening of overseas capacity construction and the provision for asset impairment losses. The company's 1Q26 revenue/ attributable NP were RMB14/13mn (+94.4%/+70.7% YoY), mainly due to the positive recovery of the organic business combined with the consolidation of the newly acquired subsidiary Fenglin Medical during the period. Considering the company's promotion of overseas capacity construction and domestic and international market development, we are positive on the company's high profit growth in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
1Q26 GPM slid, stepped up promotional activities
The company's 1Q26 GPM was 26.8% (-4.4pp YoY), which we attribute mainly to the increased revenue share of the domestic business with relatively low gross margins, coupled with the fact that some new capacity has not yet achieved economies of scale. The company's 1Q26 sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios were 3.6/8.8/5.7% (+0.6/-7.0/-1.1pp YoY). The company is currently strengthening its sales and promotion capabilities to sharpen its industry edge.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the positive recovery of the company's organic business combined with the consolidation of the new subsidiary, we raise our revenue growth rate forecast. Considering the strengthening of domestic market sales and promotion, we raise our sales expense ratio forecast. We adjust our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts to RMB87/109/136mn (up 11/3% vs previous 2026/2027 forecasts). Given the company's status as a leader in the injection and puncture device field with a rich product portfolio and continuously expanding customer base, we assign a 2026E 51x PE (vs Wind consensus peers’ average of 47x). We revise our target price to RMB36.21 (previous: RMB28.10, based on 2026E 44x PE vs peers’ average of 41x PE).
Risks: Key product sales missing our expectations, intensified market competition, and forex fluctuations.

　　公司25年收入/归母净利3.57/0.06亿元（yoy-8.0%/-89.4%），符合业绩预告预期（预告归母净利0.04-0.06亿元）。公司25年业绩下滑主因相关业务受到美国FDA进口警示以及国际贸易环境等因素的持续影响，叠加公司强化海外产能建设并计提资产减值损失。公司1Q26收入/归母净利1.41/0.13亿元（yoy+94.4%/+70.7%），主因内生业务积极修复叠加新增控股子公司丰临医疗于期内并表。考虑公司积极推进海外产能建设及国内外市场开发，看好公司26年业绩实现高速增长。维持“增持”。
　　1Q26毛利率有所下滑，积极强化销售推广能力
　　公司1Q26毛利率为26.8%（yoy-4.4pct），我们推测主因毛利率相对较低的国内业务收入占比提升，叠加部分新产能尚未实现规模效应。公司1Q26销售/管理/研发费用率分别为3.6%/8.8%/5.7%，分别yoy+0.6/-7.0/-1.1pct，公司积极强化销售推广能力，持续提升行业竞争力。
　　看好公司核心主业26年收入实现高速增长
　　1）医疗器械：25年收入2.50亿元（yoy+25.6%），公司积极拓展医用产品品类并丰富客户来源，积极对冲美国FDA进口禁令影响。考虑公司海外转产进展顺利并通过外部并购强化国内市场布局，看好公司核心主业26年收入实现高速增长。2）动物器械：25年收入7856万元（yoy-48.1%），我们推测主因国际贸易环境变化影响部分客户需求释放节奏；考虑外部环境影响边际减弱，叠加公司产品竞争力行业领先，看好板块26年恢复较快发展。3）实验室耗材：25年收入2134万元（yoy-27.8%）；看好板块26年收入在自研产品矩阵持续拓展背景下实现恢复性增长。
　　国内外市场开发多措并举，经营稳定性持续提升
　　公司多措并举推进海内外业务开发并已取得积极成效，包括：1）海外市场：公司于25年持续推进海外产能建设及新兴市场开发，截至25年底，公司柬埔寨工厂已投产，公司在新加坡等地的海外业务平台已设立，有望持续降低部分业务遭受贸易摩擦的不确定风险。2）国内市场：公司于1M26新增控股丰临医疗；丰临医疗专注于国内注射穿刺类医疗器械领域，拥有丰富的产品矩阵和成熟的销售体系；看好公司通过本次收购快速拓展国内市场并有效增强经营稳定性和抗风险能力。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑公司内生业务积极修复叠加新增子公司并表，我们上调收入增速预测，考虑国内市场销售推广强化，我们上调销售费用率预测，我们调整26-28年归母净利预测至0.87/1.09/1.36亿元（相比26/27年前值上调11%/3%）。公司为注射穿刺器械领域领军者，产品品类丰富且客户持续拓展，给予公司26年51xPE（可比公司Wind一致预期均值47x），调整目标价至36.21元（前值28.10元，对应26年44xPEvs可比公司均值41xPE）。
　　风险提示：核心产品销售不达预期，市场竞争加剧，汇率波动风险。