Narrowed Decline in Non-Interest Income Drives Earnings Recovery
发布时间:2026-09-14 来源:华泰证券
SPDB released its 1H26 results on 27 August, with attributable net profit (NP) /revenue growth of +4.1/+3.6% YoY (+2.6/+2.1pp vs. 1Q26), showing accelerated earnings growth quarter by quarter. The annualized ROE/ROA for 1H26 was 7.92/0.61% (-0.74/-0.01pp YoY). Stabilizing and recovering NIM drove net interest income to maintain double-digit growth, while the decline in non-interest income narrowed. Disposal efforts for existing risks increased. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Solid interest income; marginal NIM improvement
For 1H26, net interest income was RMB64,631mn (+10.9% YoY), maintaining double-digit growth. NIM was 1.43%, up by 1bp vs. 2025A, indicating NIM stabilization and recovery. The yield on interest-earning assets was 2.89% (-22bp vs. 2025A); the cost of interest-bearing liabilities was 1.48% (-26bp vs. 2025A), as liability cost repricing effects continued releasing. Scale grew steadily: at the end of June, total assets/loans/deposits grew by +7.9/+4.1/+4.7% YoY, with demand deposits accounting for 37.8%, up by 0.6pp from the beginning of the year. Incremental loans amounted to RMB164.3bn for 1H26, with corporate/retail/bills accounting for 147/-16/-31%, showing concentrated credit resources in key areas. Deepening its focus on "five major tracks" such as tech finance, the company's tech loan balance reached RMB1.13tn (+7.9% from the beginning of the year), with Yangtze River Delta loans accounting for 60.2% of total bank loan growth, forming differentiated growth drivers.
Narrowed non-interest decline; optimized operating costs
Non-interest income fell by 9.6% YoY to RMB29,146mn for 1H26, with the decline narrowing by 7.1pp vs. 1Q26. Net fee and commission income was RMB11,924mn (-1.9% YoY), among which agency/custody business income rose by 19.0/7.9% YoY, maintaining rapid growth; bank card and investment banking business income remained under pressure. Wealth management progressed steadily: at the end of June, retail AUM reached RMB5.01tn (+7.3% from the beginning of the year); custody business scale reached RMB21.75tn (+7.6% from the beginning of the year). Other non-interest income was RMB17,222mn (-14.3% YoY), of which investment gains were RMB20,144mn (+34.3% YoY); fair value changes posted a loss of RMB5,206mn, mainly dragged down by valuation changes under bond market fluctuations. At the end of June, financial investments rose by 14.1% YoY, with TPL/OCI up by 21.4/20.1% YoY. For 1H26, the cost-to-income ratio was 22.52% (-2.55pp YoY), as cost reduction and efficiency gains continuously released profit potential.
Maintain 2026E target PB of 0.55x
Given increased provisioning intensity, we lower our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 0.71/2.07/3.51% to RMB52.2/54.5/57.2bn (+4.4/+4.5/+4.8% YoY), with 2026E BVPS at RMB23.28 (previous: RMB23.29), corresponding to 0.39x PB. The company adheres to controlling new risks and reducing old risks, NIM has stabilized and recovered, and performance ranks among the top joint-stock banks. We thus value the stock at 0.55x 2026E PB (unchanged), above its peers' average of 0.46x on Wind consensus (unchanged), for our target price of RMB12.80 (previous: RMB12.81). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: weaker policy implementation/economic recovery than we expect.