Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries’ (Zhenhua) revenue/attributable net profit (NP) were RMB8,133/126mn (-10.65/+218.01% yoy, -7.41/-7.50% qoq). For 9M24, Zhenhua’s revenue/attributable NP were RMB25,363/433mn (+12.67/35.43% yoy). We attribute the revenue growth fluctuations in 3Q24 mainly to the timing of order confirmation. The 9M24 earnings were robust overall with stellar attributable NP yoy, and the offshore engineering market has been recovering rapidly. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GPM for 3Q24 up 0.63pp yoy, financial expense ratio picked up
The GPM for 9M24 was 12.38% (-0.11pp yoy), while 3Q24 GPM was 12.93% (+0.63pp yoy). In 9M24, the sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios were 0.61/2.31/3.89% (-0.07/-0.34/+0.63pp yoy); the financial expense ratio was 1.80%, up 0.15pp yoy, due to reduced forex gains resulting from the USD exchange rate fluctuations. Overall expense ratio for 9M24 was 8.61% (+0.38pp yoy).

　　投资要点
　　事件：振华重工披露2024年三季报。
　　前三季度业绩同比增速较为亮眼。2024年前三季度，公司实现营收253.63亿元，同比+12.67%；实现归母净利4.33亿元，同比+35.43%。前三季度业绩呈现亮眼增长态势。
　　单季度受确认节奏影响有所波动，盈利能力同比有提升。单季度来看，2024Q3，公司实现营收81.33亿元，同比-10.65%，环比-7.41%；实现归母净利1.26亿元，同比+218.01%，环比-7.50%。单季度业绩波动主要原因为订单确认节奏。2024Q3，公司毛利率12.93%，同比+0.63pcts；净利率2.30%，同比+1.42pcts。
　　公司为全球港机龙头，下游港口自动化采购需求增加。公司岸桥产品已连续20余年保持全球市场占有率第一的行业龙头地位，产品销往全球107个国家和地区。港机行业方面，高端化、绿色化、智能化成为港机行业发展趋势，港口自动化码头新建及改造需求加大，整机采购需求逐步释放。根据公司公告披露的信息，2024上半年，公司港口机械业务新签合同及中标项目金额总计为24.64亿美元，海工和钢结构相关业务新签合同及中标项目金额总计11.84亿美元。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计公司2024-2026年营业收入363.91/397.39/436.34亿元，同比增长10.50%/9.20%/9.80%；预计归母净利润8.29/10.77/14.03亿元，同比增长59.46%/29.89%/30.23%；对应PE分别为27.64/21.28/16.34倍，首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：
　　全球宏观经济波动风险；海外政策变化风险；汇率波动风险；下游需求不及预期风险。

　　公司公布三季度业绩：收入81.33亿元，同比-10.65%，环比-7.41%；归母净利润1.26亿元，同比+218.01%，环比-7.50%。前三季度公司实现收入253.63亿元，同比+12.67%；归母净利润4.33亿元，同比+35.43%。Q3收入增速有所波动，主要系订单确认节奏影响。整体看前三季度业绩稳中有增，归母净利增速亮眼，且海工市场加速回暖，维持“增持”评级。
　　24Q3毛利率同比+0.63pp，汇兑收益减少导致财务费用率有所增加
　　24年前三季度公司毛利率12.38%，同比-0.11pp。Q3单季度，公司毛利率12.93%，同比+0.63pp，环比-0.60pp。期间费用率方面，前三季度销售费用率0.61%，同比-0.07pp；管理费用率2.31%，同比-0.34pp；财务费用率1.80%，同比+0.15pp，主要系美元汇率波动使得汇兑收益减少所致；研发费用率3.89%，同比+0.63pp。合计期间费用率8.61%，同比+0.38pp。
　　港机行业全球龙头，国际业务持续稳健拓展
　　公司是全球知名的重型装备制造企业，是世界上最大的港口机械重型装备制造商，产品销售范围不断扩展，超全球107个国家和地区。据公司微信公众号，公司为乌兹别克斯坦用户建造的正面吊已成功发运，标志着ZPMC产品进入全球第108个国家和地区。公司正面吊产品已应用于上海、广州、青岛等国内大型港口，并且远销新加坡、泰国、澳大利亚、印度、巴拿马、巴西等国家和地区。作为全球港机行业龙头，公司国际业务持续稳健拓展。
　　创新升级紧跟行业风向，研发创新国际市场竞争力不断提升
　　公司紧跟高端化、绿色化、智能化行业发展趋势，推进产品持续创新和迭代升级，提升市场竞争力。据公司微信公众号：公司全球首创融合定位自主驾驶无人跨运车、无人导引车等产品及技术，进一步提高港口智能化水平，在智能感知无轨导航技术上取得国际领先成果；公司国内首创双燃料动力耙吸式挖泥船，LNG动力相关技术填补了我国疏浚船舶在清洁能源使用和绿色低碳方面的空白，是“天鲲号”之后交付的又一“疏浚利器”。公司自研产品持续突破技术壁垒，国际市场竞争力不断提升。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持预测公司24-26年归母净利润为8.3/13.0/15.3亿元，同比增速分别为60%/56%/17%，对应EPS为0.16/0.25/0.29元。可比公司25年Wind一致预期PE均值为16倍，公司是港机、海工行业制造龙头，国际竞争力凸显，我们给予公司25年21倍PE，对应目标价5.25（前值4.32）元，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：海工业务复苏速度不及预期，利率与汇率风险，原材料供应风险。

Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries is a global leader in port machinery. Its other businesses include marine heavy industry, large, heavy, and special steel structures, maritime transport, and offshore installation. The global market share of Zhenhua’s quayside container cranes is over 70%; the company has maintained the top market share in quayside container cranes for 25 consecutive years. We expect 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP of RMB0.83/1.30/1.53bn, corresponding to 21/14/12x PE. In view of the company’s leadership in the port machinery and offshore engineering sectors, with strong global competitiveness, we value the stock at 27x 2024E PE, above its peers’ average of 20x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB4.32. Initiate at OVERWEIGHT.

Attributable NP +9.5% yoy in 1H24, maintain OVERWIGHT
Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries’ revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring attributable NP were RMB17,229/306/116mn (+28.5/9.5/64.8% yoy) for 1H24 and RMB8,784/137/23mn (+18.9/-9.1/-46.0% yoy) for 2Q24. We maintain our 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP forecasts at RMB0.83/1.30/1.53bn, corresponding to 22/14/12x PE. In view of the company’s leadership in the port machinery and offshore engineering sectors with strong global competitiveness, we value the stock at 27x 2024E PE, above its peers’ average of 21x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB4.32. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.