Shenghe Resources posted revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring attributable NP of RMB8,759/887/877mn(+41.76/+135.24/+141.23%YoY).For 2Q26,revenue/attributable NP/recurring attributable NP were RMB5,377/559/551mn(+68.70/+168.15/+178.55%YoY;+58.95/+70.86/+69.15%QoQ).Considering acontinued upcycle for the rare earth sector and the company's additional zirconium-titanium projects,we maintain BUY.
Higher rare earth prices lifted GPM
In 1H26,demand for key rare earth products stayed favorable,with prices rising materially YoY.The revenue growth was driven mainly by YoY prices hikes for core rare earth products.Operating costs rose by 35.23%YoY,trailing the revenue growth pace,and overall GPM reached 12.64%(+4.22pp YoY);for 2Q26,GPM was 12.53%(+3.69pp YoY,-0.29pp QoQ).The company lifted operating efficiency by optimizing its production sales mix and tightening cost/inventory discipline;net operating cash flow came in at RMB-638mn in 1H26,mainly as it stepped up procurement to capture the price upturn,lifting end-1H26 inventories and advance payments.
Overseas zirconium-titanium projects on track
The Fungoni project switched from diesel to grid power to trim unit opex and contain site risk,and began shipping heavy-mineral concentrate(HMC)back to China under commercial terms in July.At the Tajiri project,the roughing circuit has held steady-state output at nameplate capacity and secured in-country permitting and completed ancillary site works for the local upgrading plant.The company's 2026-2028 roadmap guides for rare earth concentrate capacity of no less than 30ktpa by 2028,proprietary zirconium-titanium mineral sands capacity of no less than 1.5mtpa,newly added overseas resource reserves of no less than 30mn tonnes,and zirconium-titanium revenue contribution of no less than 30%.We expect the expanded overseas footprint to firm up raw material self-sufficiency and widen its reach into specified downstream uses for both rare earth and zirconium-titanium product lines.
Downstream processing projects came on stream
Domestically,the Leshan Shenghe 15ktpa high-performance rare-earth polishing powder line is on track for completion inspection by end-September and an October commissioning trial.The Sanxi hazardous slag storage project is slated for inspection and trial operation by the end of 2026.The Shenghe Dechang 6,000tpa rare earth metal deep processing upgrade is advancing safety and energy assessments.The domestic zirconium-titanium dressing base has completed tailings handling equipment retrofits.On R&D,Chenguang Rare Earths New Material has optimized raw ore defluorination and ammonia stripping,while the Sichuan rare earth metal base lifted per-furnace output by about 10%through furnace-type adjustments and process controls.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
As the 4Q25 consolidation-scope expansion lifted the administrative expense ratio materially,the 1H26 ratio has normalized.Therefore,we lower our administrative expense ratio assumptions and raise our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts by 15.4/16.0/15.6%to RMB1,563/1,985/2,479mn,with EPS at RMB0.89/1.13/1.41.We value the stock at 41.7x 2026E PE,in line with its peers'average on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB37.11(previous:RMB39.66,based on 51.5x 2026E PE).Maintain BUY.
Risks:rare earth and zirconium-titanium price swings,delays in resource and project construction schedules,weaker-than-expected downstream demand,global economic and geopolitical uncertainties,forex rate volatility,changes in environmental,safety and industrial policies.

　　盛和资源发布2026年半年报，2026H1实现营收87.59亿元（yoy+41.76%），归母净利润8.87亿元（yoy+135.24%），扣非归母净利润8.77亿元（yoy+141.23%）。Q2实现营收53.77亿元（yoy+68.70%、qoq+58.95%），归母净利润5.59亿元（yoy+168.15%、qoq+70.86%），扣非归母净利润5.51亿元（yoy+178.55%、qoq+69.15%）。考虑稀土行业高景气度延续以及公司布局额外锆钛业务，维持“买入”评级。
　　稀土产品价格上涨，毛利率同比提升
　　26H1稀土主要产品市场需求整体向好、价格较上一年度涨幅较大；收入增长主要受主要稀土产品价格同比上涨带动。26H1营业成本同比+35.23%，低于收入增速，综合毛利率12.64%，同比+4.22pct；Q2毛利率12.53%，同比+3.69pct、环比-0.29pct。公司通过优化产销结构、强化成本与库存管理提升经营质效；26H1经营性现金流净额-6.38亿元，主要系把握价格上行机遇加大采购，期末存货及预付款增加。
　　海外锆钛项目持续推进，中期规划强化资源掌控
　　海外项目方面，Fungoni项目通过市电替代柴油发电降本控险，7月正式实现重矿物精矿回运；Tajiri项目粗选厂已连续稳产，并完成当地精选厂建设手续及配套基建。公司2026-2028年发展规划提出，到2028年稀土精矿（REO）产能不低于3万吨/年、自有矿山锆钛重砂矿产品产能不低于150万吨/年，新增海外各类资源储备不低于3000万吨，锆钛业务营收占比不低于30%；项目推进有望增强资源保障，加强稀土、锆钛下游应用领域探索。
　　深加工项目有序落地，降本增效持续推进
　　国内项目方面，乐山盛和1.5万吨/年高性能稀土抛光粉项目预计9月底竣工验收、10月投产试车；三稀环保渣库项目预计年底前验收及试运行，盛和德昌6000吨/年稀土金属深加工技改项目推进安评、能评，国内锆钛选矿基地完成尾矿处理设备改造。研发方面，晨光稀土原矿除氟、蒸氨优化等项目取得进展，四川稀土金属基地通过炉型调整和工艺管控，金属炉台单台生产量提升约10%。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　由于25年Q4公司合并报表范围增加使管理费用率显著提升，26H1公司管理费用率回到较为正常水平，我们下调管理费用率预测，对应我们上调公司26-28年归母净利润至15.63/19.85/24.79亿元（较前值分别上调15.4%/16.0%/15.6%），对应26-28年EPS为0.89/1.13/1.41元。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为41.7，我们给予公司26年41.7倍PE，对应目标价37.11元（前值39.66元，对应26年51.5倍PE）。
　　风险提示：稀土及锆钛产品价格波动，资源与项目建设进度不及预期，下游需求不及预期，全球经济及地缘政治、汇率波动，环保安全及产业政策变化等风险。

Shenghe Resources has released its annual report, with revenue of RMB14.99bn in 2025 (up 31.83% YoY), attributable net profit (NP) of RMB839mn (up 304.94% YoY), and recurring NP of RMB813mn (up 310.31% YoY). In 4Q25, revenue was RMB4,545mn (up 44.90% YoY, up 6.02% QoQ), and attributable NP was RMB51.41mn (down 55.03% YoY, down 87.48% QoQ). Attributable NP in 2025 was lower than our previous forecast of RMB1,024mn, mainly due to the expanded scope of consolidated statements, leading to a YoY increase of RMB209mn in employee compensation for 2025. In 1Q26, the company achieved revenue of RMB3,383mn (up 13.07% YoY) and an attributable NP of RMB327mn (up 94.46% YoY). Benefiting from future demand growth in areas like new energy vehicles and the strategic value of rare earths, we think the average price for praseodymium-neodymium oxide could rise, and the ramp-up of the company's future rare earth and zirconium-titanium ore projects could enhance profitability. Maintain BUY.
Praseodymium-neodymium oxide upcycle boosted 1Q26 profit
Per Wind, ASP of praseodymium-neodymium oxide in 1Q25/2Q25/3Q25/4Q25/1Q26 was RMB440,000/442,000/550,000/566,000/757,000 per tonne, maintaining an upward trend, while sales volume of the company's main products achieved YoY growth. Looking at gross margin by product in 2025, we find mixed changes: gross margin for rare earth products increased by 6.57pp YoY, while that for zirconium-titanium and other products fell by 12.09pp YoY. Attributable NP in 1Q26 increased significantly QoQ, mainly due to the rising price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, a decline in administrative expenses, and a reduction in asset impairment losses.
Boasting ample strategic reserves for resources
The company acquired Peak Rare Earths and signed a long-term supply agreement for rare earth concentrates with Sichuan Hedi Mining, establishing a diversified supply channel for rare earth concentrates, which offers raw material security for its downstream businesses such as rare earth smelting and separation. In 2026, the company plans to continue advancing its projects in an orderly fashion, notably the Ngula Rare Earth Mine project in Tanzania, the Nia Tity Zirconium-Titanium Mine project, the Madagascar Jiacheng Zirconium-Titanium Mine project, and the Leshan 15,000tpa polishing powder project. The Tanzania Nia Tity Heavy Mineral Sands project will expand production to an annual capacity of 300,000 tonnes of heavy mineral concentrate, and the Madagascar Heavy Mineral Sands project will complete preparations for the construction of its first mining area, creating the conditions necessary to achieve the first batch of heavy mineral concentrate output in 2027.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the potential rise in the ASP of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, we raise our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecast for Shenghe to RMB1,354/1,711mn (up 1.7/15.5% from our previous forecast), and introduce our 2028 attributable NP forecast of RMB2,144mn, which translates to EPS of RMB0.77/0.98/1.22 for 2026/2027/2028. The average 2026 PE on Wind consensus for comparable companies is 51.5x, and we assign the company a 2026 PE of 51.5x, corresponding to a target price of RMB39.66 (previous: RMB31.23, on 41.1x 2026E PE).
Risks: Domestic rare earth supply rises above our expectation, demand in key sectors turns out to be weaker than we expect, cost pass-through at downstream customers turns out to be less effective than we expected after the rise in rare earth prices.

　　盛和资源发布年报，2025年实现营收149.91亿元（yoy+31.83%），归母净利8.39亿元（yoy+304.94%），扣非净利8.13亿元（yoy+310.31%）。其中Q4实现营收45.35亿元（yoy+44.90%，qoq+6.02%），归母净利5141.27万元（yoy-55.03%，qoq-87.48%）。2025年归母净利润低于我们原先预期的10.24亿元，主要因为合并报表范围增加，2025年职工薪酬同比提升2.09亿元。2026年Q1公司实现营业收入33.83亿元，同比提升13.07%，实现归母净利润3.27亿元，同比提升94.46%。受益于未来新能源汽车等需求增长以及稀土战略价值，氧化镨钕价格中枢有望上行，公司未来稀土矿和锆钛矿项目放量有望进一步增厚盈利，维持公司“买入”评级。
　　氧化镨钕价格保持上行趋势，26Q1业绩环比大增
　　根据Wind数据，2025Q1/2025Q2/2025Q3/2025Q4/2026Q1氧化镨钕均价分别为44.0/44.2/55.0/56.6/75.7万元/吨，保持上行趋势，同时公司主要产品销量实现同比增长。2025年分产品看毛利率涨跌互现，稀土产品毛利率增加6.57个百分点，锆钛及其他减少12.09个百分点。2026年Q1归母净利润环比大增，主要系氧化镨钕价格上行、管理费用下滑以及资产减值损失减少。
　　公司战略布局资源储备丰富，稀土和锆钛多元布局
　　公司收购了Peak稀土公司、与四川和地矿业签署了稀土精矿长期供应协议，构建了多元化的稀土精矿供应渠道，为公司的稀土冶炼分离等下游业务提供了充分的原料保障。2026年，公司将有序推进坦桑尼亚恩古拉稀土矿项目、尼亚提锆钛矿项目、马达加斯加嘉成锆钛矿项目、乐山15000吨/年抛光粉项目，以及公司的其他投资等项目，坦桑尼亚尼亚提重砂矿项目扩产至30万吨/年重矿物精矿产能，马达加斯加重砂矿完成首采区建设准备，为2027年实现首批重矿物精矿产出创造条件。
　　供需改善叠加战略地位强化，稀土行业高景气度有望延续
　　25年7月10日，美国国防部以4亿美元收购MPMaterials15%的股权，同时承诺以不低于110美元/kg的价格采购氧化镨钕，显著高于国内价格（以7月10日国内镨钕价格测算，溢价约74%）。根据我们2025年8月18日外发的《重视稀土战略地位，看好价格上行》，我们测算25-26年全球氧化镨钕供需平衡/需求分别为-5.8%/-4.6%，供需格局转为短缺。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到氧化镨钕中枢价格有望抬升，我们上调公司26-27年归母净利润至13.54/17.11亿元（较前值分别上调1.7%/15.5%），新增28年归母净利润预测为21.44亿元，对应26-28年EPS为0.77/0.98/1.22元。可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为51.5倍，我们给予公司26年51.5倍PE，对应目标价39.66元（前值31.23元，对应26年41.1倍PE）。
　　风险提示：国内稀土供给增加；重点领域需求减弱；价格上行之后下游成本无法有效传导等。