Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our forecasts for Shuangliang’s 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP at RMB-1,996/+666/+1,703mn. Considering upcoming ramp-ups of its green hydrogen equipment and buoyant demand for traditional equipment, we value the stock at 25x 2025E PE (above its peers’ average of 24x on Wind consensus). Our target price is RMB9.00 (previous: RMB5.40). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

　　公司公布三季度业绩：24Q3营收33.67亿元，同比-49.44%，环比+23.26%；归母净利-0.82亿元，同比-110.46%，环比+91.47%；扣非净利-0.88亿元，同比-111.48%，环比+91.29%。24Q1-Q3营收103.47亿元，同比-44.93%；归母净利-13.39亿元，同比-195.47%；扣非净利-14.88亿元，同比-213.33%。我们认为公司硅片产能市占率领先，产品技术满足下游TOPCon/HJT等电池客户需求，设备业绩即将放量，Q3亏损大幅收窄显示公司经营状况明显改善，预计25-26年业绩有望迎来强劲复苏，维持“增持”评级。
　　单瓦亏损降低，毛利率转正，费率控制良好
　　24Q3毛利率为11.3%，环比+28.6pct；净利率-2.5%，环比+32.8pct。毛利率同比回正，净利率环比大幅修复，一方面由于硅片业务单瓦亏损环比改善，另一方面氢能设备放量，贡献可观利润。公司Q3期间费用率（不含研发）为7.4%，同比+4.2%，环比-2.7%；其中销售/管理/财务费用率分别为2.0%/2.5%/2.9%，同比+1.21/1.29/1.68pct，环比-0.27/-0.83/-1.62pct，费率环比控制良好。
　　经营性现金流回正，存货跌价收窄
　　24Q3公司经营性现金流2.05亿元（Q2为-15.14亿元），公司开始加快产业链下游收款，回笼资金储备，抵御下行周期。24Q3公司存货跌价损失环比减少，资产减值损失-0.68亿元，信用减值损失-0.79亿元，对比H1资产减值-4.38亿元实现大幅收窄。
　　海外市场持续开拓
　　24Q1-Q3公司氢能设备出海实现突破，发挥装备业务协同布局优势。前三季度双良集团与阿联酋MMEC公司正式签订战略合作协议，计划在清洁能源技术研发、项目实施和市场拓展等方面展开深度合作。中东作为光伏蓝海市场，多个光伏组件厂商布局中东产能，公司作为光伏设备提供商，有望受益于组件出海，打开利润空间。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司24-26年归母净利润预测-19.96/6.66/17.03亿元，参考可比公司25年Wind一致预期PE24倍，考虑到公司绿电制氢设备放量在即，传统设备业务需求高增，给予公司25年25倍PE估值，目标价9.0元（前值5.4元），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：硅片价格波动超预期；下游需求不及预期等。

2Q24 attributable net loss escalated
In 1H24, Shuangliang logged revenue/attributable NP of RMB6,979/-1,257mn RMB2,732/-963mn (-59.02/-927.93% yoy, -35.69/-226.44% qoq). We attribute the intensified net loss in 2Q24 primarily to a significant drop in silicon wafer prices, leading to a sharp rise in inventory write-down. As falling silicon wafer prices weighed on profits, we cut our 2024/2025/2026 EPS estimates to RMB-1.07/0.36/0.91 (previous: RMB1.09/1.29/1.42). Considering upcoming volume expansion of its green hydrogen equipment and high demand for traditional equipment, we value the stock at 15x 2025E PE, above its peers’ average of 12x on Wind consensus. Our target price is RMB5.4 (previous: RMB8.72). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Silicon wafer prices strained, reduction furnace market share stable
As of 1H24, the company’s advanced monocrystalline silicon capacity was close to 100GW, utilizing type-1600 furnaces and large-size hot fields to meet the demands of TOPCon, HJT, and other cell customers. However, due to a supply-demand mismatch, silicon wafer prices continued to decline, putting pressure on the company’s profitability. The company's leadership in polysilicon reduction furnaces has been maintained, with a market share exceeding 65% for several years, driving high-quality development in the industry.
Green power hydrogen production emerged as a new growth driver
The company's alkaline water electrolyzers, featuring independent intellectual property rights, have achieved international advanced standards. It has established a presence in both domestic and overseas markets, making breakthroughs in China, the Middle East, and Europe. Phase I of its green power hydrogen production project has been completed and is now operational, with an annual capacity of 300 electrolyzers. Phase II, with a capacity for 700 green power hydrogen production systems, is advancing steadily.
Expanding overseas markets; business synergies prominent
On January 17, the company announced its successful bid for the SPC Middle East Oman 100,000-tonne monocrystalline silicon project, with a bid amount of USD58.32mn. This marks a significant breakthrough in the overseas hydrogen equipment market, showcasing the competitive advantage of its synergistic equipment business. On 28 June, Shuangliang signed a strategic cooperation agreement with MMEC of the United Arab Emirates, aiming for in-depth collaboration in clean energy technology R&D, project implementation, and market expansion.
Risks: volatile silicon prices and weaker downstream demand exceeding our expectations.

　　Q2归母净利亏损加剧
　　公司1H24实现营业收入69.79亿元，同降42.45%；归母净利润-12.57亿元，同降303.47%。2Q24实现营收27.32亿元，同降59.02%，环降35.69%；归母净利润-9.63亿元，同降927.93%，环比亏损扩大226.44%，Q2利润亏损加剧，主要系硅片价格大幅下降，存货跌价准备大幅上升。考虑到硅片价格下滑拖累利润，我们下调公司24/25/26年EPS为-1.07/0.36/0.91元（前值1.09/1.29/1.42元），参考Wind一致预期，可比公司25年12倍PE。考虑到公司绿电制氢设备放量在即，传统设备业务需求高增，给予公司25年15倍PE，对应目标价5.4元（前值8.72元），维持“增持”评级。
　　硅片价格持续承压，还原炉市占率稳定
　　截至1H24，公司单晶硅先进产能近100GW，均配备1600炉型并采用大尺寸热场，满足TOPCon、HJT等电池客户需求。由于供需错配，硅片环节价格持续下跌，公司盈利能力承压，近期隆基绿能、TCL中环均上调硅片报价，硅片价格有望阶段性企稳。公司多晶硅还原炉维持领军地位，市占率连续多年保持在65%以上，引领行业高质量发展。公司组件业务进展顺利，24Q2公司接连公告中标内蒙古能源达拉特旗100万千瓦矿区光伏+储能项目EPC、北京院商都150万千瓦光伏草业等项目的组件采购，有望发挥业务协同。
　　绿电制氢打造新增长极，产能稳步推进
　　公司拥有自主知识产权的碱性水电解槽性能达到国际先进水平，公司布局海内外渠道，在国内、中东与欧洲等地均有所突破。绿电制氢一期项目已建成投产，电解槽年产能300台，二期700套绿电制氢系统产能建设稳步推进。我们看好随着风光消纳需求逐步提升，制氢设备需求释放有望支撑公司业绩持续增长。
　　开拓海外市场，业务协同凸显
　　根据公司公告，1月17日公司中标SPC中东阿曼10万吨单晶硅项目，中标金额达到5832万美元，标志着公司氢能设备出海的首次突破，充分发挥公司装备业务协同布局带来的竞争力。6月28日，双良集团与阿联酋MMEC公司正式签订战略合作协议，将在清洁能源技术研发、项目实施和市场拓展等方面展开深度合作。中东作为光伏蓝海市场，晶科能源、TCL中环等多个光伏厂商布局中东产能，公司作为光伏设备提供商，有望通过锁定全套设备订单，实现业绩持续增长。
　　风险提示：硅片价格波动超预期；下游需求不及预期等。