Jingneng Power’s 3Q24 revenue/attributable net profit (NP) rose 1.1/9.0% yoy to RMB8,734/502mn. For 9M24, revenue/attributable NP/recurring NP were RMB25,004/1,415/1,414mn (+5.7/+70.8/+74.4% yoy). The 3Q24 attributable NP was in line with our prior estimate of RMB483-529mn, with growth mainly driven by a yoy decline in fuel costs. Given the company’s effective fuel cost control, and that the acquisition of group assets could accelerate installation growth, thereby driving up earnings, maintain OVERWEIGHT.
3Q24 GPM rose 2.28/0.39pp yoy/qoq on effective fuel cost control In 9M24, the company’s on-grid power output was 65,345mn kWh (+6.39% yoy). In 3Q24, on-grid thermal/new energy power output was 23,938mn/424mn kWh (-1.86/+404.76% yoy). Despite a slight drop in 3Q24 on-grid thermal power output, the company has sticked to prioritizing long-term contracts over market purchases for fuel procurement, enhancing its fuel cost control and bargaining power, thus effectively reducing fuel costs. As a result, the company’s 3Q24 GPM rose 2.28pp yoy and 0.39pp qoq to 11.52%, while the NPM rose 1.47pp yoy to 7.87%.
Acquisition of group assets could accelerate installation growth
In October 2024, the company announced that it planned to acquire a 51% stake in Jingneng Xilingol Energy (JXE) and a 100% stake in Jingneng Chagannaoer (Xilingol) New Energy (JCNE) from its controlling shareholder Beijing Energy Holding (BEH) in cash at a total price of RMB689mn, aiming at avoiding peer competition and lifting operational efficiency. JXE operates two 660MW coal-fired power units (both commissioned) at Jinneng Chagannaoer power plant, while JCNE is the investment entity for BEH’s 320MW wind power project and an 80MW PV power project, both part of the UHV power transmission initiative in Xilingol League. These two projects were approved in March 2024 and are scheduled to start construction in April 2025. We expect the consolidation of new power units to drive the company’s earnings growth.
Target price of RMB4.55, maintain OVERWEIGHT
We project its 2024/2025/2026 attributable NP at RMB1,648/1,909/2,347mn (previous: RMB1,320/1,638/1,870mn), with BVPS at RMB4.25/4.34/4.46. As we forecast the 2024-2026 attributable NP CAGR at 39%, above its peers’ average of 30%, we value the stock at 1.05x 2025E PB (above its peers’ average of 1.01x on Wind consensus). Our target price is RMB4.55 (previous: RMB4.20). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: higher coal prices, declines in utilization hours, and slower progress of projects under construction than we expect.

　　京能电力公布三季度业绩：Q3收入87.34亿元，同比+1.1%；归母净利润5.02亿元，同比+9.0%。前三季度公司实现收入250.04亿元，同比+5.7%；归母净利润14.15亿元，同比+70.8%；扣非净利润14.14亿元，同比+74.4%。公司三季度归母净利润符合我们预期（4.83~5.29亿元），增长主要源于燃料成本同比减少。考虑燃料成本管控成效显著，收购集团资产装机增长有望提速，驱动业绩成长，维持“增持”评级。
　　燃料成本管控成效显著，Q3毛利率同比/环比+2.28/+0.39pp
　　公司2024年前三季度累计完成上网电量653.45亿千瓦时，同比+6.39%；3Q24火电/新能源完成上网电量239.38/4.24亿千瓦时，同比-1.86/+404.76%。Q3火电上网电量同比略有下滑，但公司坚持“长协为主、市场为辅”的燃料采购策略，加强燃料成本管控，提高采购议价能力，有效降低燃料成本，3Q24公司毛利率同比+2.28pp、环比+0.39pp至11.52%；净利率同比+1.47pp至7.87%。
　　收购集团资产，装机增长有望提速
　　2024年10月，公司发布公告，为避免同业竞争，提升运营效率，拟现金收购控股股东京能集团持有的京能锡林郭勒能源有限公司51%股权与京能查干淖尔（锡林郭勒）新能源有限公司100%股权，交易价格合计6.89亿元。锡林能源运营京能查干淖尔电厂2x66万千瓦燃煤发电机组（均已投运）；查干新能源是京能锡林郭勒盟特高压外送新能源32万千瓦风电项目和三期项目阿巴嘎旗8万千瓦光伏项目的投资主体，项目于2024年3月核准，计划2025年4月开工。我们认为新机组并表或将驱动业绩成长。
　　目标价4.55元，维持“增持”评级
　　我们预计公司2024-2026年归母净利为16.48/19.09/23.47亿元（前值：13.20/16.38/18.70亿元），对应BPS为4.25/4.34/4.46元。可比公司2025年Wind一致预期PB均值为1.01倍，考虑公司2024-2026年归母净利CAGR（39%）高于可比均值（30%），给予公司2025年1.05x目标PB，目标价4.55元（前值4.20元），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：煤价涨幅超预期、利用小时数下滑、在建项目进度不及预期。

Attributable NP up 148% yoy in 1H24, profit and target price lifted
Jingneng Power’s (Jingneng) revenue/attributable net profit (NP)/recurring NP were RMB16,270/913/900mn (+8/148/155% yoy) for 1H24; revenue/attributable NP were RMB7,156/445mn (+11%/turned positive yoy, -21/-5% qoq) for 2Q24. Given progress in projects commissioned/under construction as well as increased revenue from peak shaving, we lift our earnings forecasts, and project 2024/2025/ 2026 attributable NP at RMB1.32/1.64/1.87bn (previous: RMB1.19/1.46/1.70bn), with BVPS of RMB4.20/4.29/4.37. As we forecast the 2024-2026 attributable NP CAGR at 29%, below its peers’ average of 30%, we value the stock at 1.0x 2024E PB, vs its peers’ average of 1.1x (averages on Wind consensus). Our target price is RMB4.20 (previous: RMB4.18). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

　　1H24归母净利同比+148%，上调盈利预测与目标价
　　京能电力发布半年报：1H24实现营收162.70亿元（yoy+8%），归母净利9.13亿元（yoy+148%），扣非净利9.00亿元（yoy+155%）。其中2Q24实现营收71.56亿元（yoy+11%，qoq-21%），归母净利4.45亿元（同比扭亏，qoq-5%）。考虑投产/在建项目情况及调峰收入增长，上调盈利预测，我们预计公司24-26年归母净利润13.2/16.4/18.7亿元（前值11.9/14.6/17.0亿元），BPS4.20/4.29/4.37元。可比公司2024年Wind一致预期PB均值为1.1倍，考虑公司2024-2026年归母净利CAGR（29%）略低于可比均值（30%），给予公司2024年1.0x目标PB，目标价4.20元（前值4.18元），维持“增持”评级。
　　深度调峰提升火电收入，煤电项目储备充足
　　1H24/2Q24年公司发电量同比+11%/+13%至443/210亿千瓦时，公司发电机组送电区域需求持续回升；其中火电发电量同比+10%/+12%，主要得益于装机容量上升，其中京泰二期#3#4机组（2x66万千瓦）于2H23投产，十堰热电#3机组（35万千瓦）于1H24并网，贡献装机增量。1H24公司火电机组平均利用小时2185小时，同比基本持平；全口径结算电价同比-3%至405元/兆瓦时（含税），双细则及调峰收入同比增长40%，售电收入同比+8%。截至1H24，煤电项目储备充足，包括涿州热电200万千瓦扩建项目（已开展土地征收工作、计划于2026年投产）和秦皇岛热电二期2x66万千瓦（已获得核准）。
　　新能源项目陆续投产，有望贡献发电增量
　　公司1H24/2Q24新能源发电量5.43/3.77亿千瓦时，同比+235%/+289%，主要得益于装机容量上升，1H24乌兰察布150万千瓦大型风光项目并网66.66万千瓦，公司新能源并网容量增至109.21万千瓦。且公司仍大力推进新能源项目开发建设进度，1H24取得项目指标49万千瓦，核准备案81.8万千瓦，在建项目约113万千瓦。虽公司当前新能源电量占比不高，但随在建项目陆续投产，新能源电量规模有望持续大幅增长。
　　风险提示：煤价涨幅超预期、利用小时数下滑、在建项目进度不及预期。