投资要点
　　事件：公司发布2026年一季度报告。2026年一季度公司实现营业收入104.13亿元，同比增长5.08%；实现归母净利润17.12亿元，同比下滑15.68%；实现扣除汇兑归母净利润21.5亿，同比+19.87%；实现毛利率37.38%，同比增长1.97个百分点。公司2026Q1营业收入与归母净利润符合我们的预期，扣除汇兑后归母净利润略好于我们预期。
　　公司2026Q1业绩符合预期，毛利率同比增长。营收端，公司2026Q1单季度实现营业收入104.13亿元，同比增长5.08%；其中汽车玻璃主营业务营业收入是96.51亿元，同比增长6.91%，主要系公司汽车玻璃产品升级推动ASP提升。ASP方面，公司2026年Q1汽车玻璃每平方米单价同比提升11.01%，主要系汽车玻璃产品持续升级，公司高附加值产品收入占比不断提升。毛利率方面，公司2026Q1单季度毛利率为37.38%，同比增长1.97个百分点，环比微增0.35个百分点。期间费用方面，公司2026Q1单季度期间费用率为18.19%，同比提升7.55个百分点；其中，2026Q1单季度公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为3.11%/7.74%/4.86%/2.49%，同比分别+0.10/+0.85/-0.59/+6.02个百分点；公司2026Q1财务费用率同比显著提升主要系汇兑亏损所致。归母净利润方面，公司2026Q1单季度实现归母净利润17.12亿元，同比下降15.68%；对应归母净利率16.44%，同比下降4.05个百分点。扣除汇兑归母净利润方面，公司2026Q1单季度实现扣除汇兑后归母净利润21.50亿元，同比增长19.87%。
　　全球汽车玻璃行业龙头，份额提升+单车ASP增长推动公司持续发展向上。1）份额方面，全球汽玻行业格局集中，福耀汽玻业务增速显著优于全球汽车产量增速，且公司正处于第三轮资本开支周期，随着后续美国扩产项目、福清出口基地和福耀合肥基地等产能陆续释放，公司全球份额有望实现进一步提升。2）单车ASP方面，随着汽车智能化的持续发展，汽车玻璃的功能也在持续升级，HUD前挡、全景天幕（集成镀膜、调光等功能）、双层边窗等高附加值产品渗透率的提升持续推动汽玻行业和公司单车配套价值量增长。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到因外汇波动导致公司汇兑亏损等情况，我们维持公司2026年归母净利润预测101.29亿元，将2027-2028年的归母净利润预测从111.10亿元/121.73亿元调整至110.70亿元/121.33亿元，对应的EPS分别为3.88元、4.24元、4.65元，市盈率分别为15.56倍、14.24倍、12.99倍，公司作为全球汽玻龙头仍处估值低位，看好公司长期稳健发展，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：原材料价格、能源价格以及海运费上涨超预期；汽车行业销量不及预期；新建产能爬坡不及预期。

Fuyao Glass(Fuyao)has reported 1Q26 revenue of RMB10.41bn(+5.08%YoY),attributable net profit(NP)of RMB1,712mn(-15.68%YoY),and recurring NP of RMB1,643mn(-17.32%YoY).Fuyao's earnings were temporarily dented by forex losses of RMB439mn in 1Q26,compared to forex gains of RMB236mn in 1Q25.Excluding forex losses,the company's 1Q26 profit growth of 9.63%YoY outpaced its revenue growth,demonstrating its main business's growth resilience and improving profitability.We believe arising proportion of high value-added products and Fuyao's global expansion could continue to support earnings growth.Meanwhile,Fuyao's stable and high dividend policy also highlights its investment value.Maintain BUY on A-/H-shares.
Main business:GPM rose both YoY and QoQ
For 1Q26,Fuyao's overall GPM rose by 1.98pp YoY/0.35pp QoQ to 37.38%,still benefiting from arising proportion of high value-added products and the company's firm focus on its main business–automotive glass.Benefiting from the"CASE"(Connected,Autonomous,Share&Service,Electric)wave in the automobile industry,Fuyao's automotive glass products are transitioning from traditional structural components to functional components.In 2024/2025,high value-added products accounted for 49/54%of automotive glass revenue,showing an upward trend.As high value-added products such as intelligent panoramic sunroofs,head-up display(HUD)glass,and dimmable glass penetrate arising share of application scenarios,we expect the company's ASP and GPM to continue expanding.
Global market share increased despite phased forex losses
For 1Q26,the company's overall expense ratio rose by 7.55pp YoY to 18.19%,mainly as its financial expense ratio increased by 6.01pp YoY to 2.48%on phased forex losses.In 1Q26,the company's interest expenses fell by 12.85%YoY,and interest income grew by 26.35%YoY.We believe the company is firmly advancing its globalization strategy.Although its global automotive glass market share exceeds 35%,as overseas production costs increase rapidly,the company is set to continue expanding its market share in North America and Europe through differentiated competition strategies.The capacity of the company's Phase-II plant in the US continues to ramp up,and the proportion of high value-added products such as sunroof glass is increasing.In Europe,capitalizing on the"1+N"model of"domestic production+localized value-added processing in Europe",the company's market share is set to increase further.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Although forex losses temporarily dampened the company's 1Q26 attributable NP,we believe it is actively taking measures to address this challenge,and its GPM continued to rise.Therefore,the full-year impact of forex factors remains to be observed.We temporarily maintain our 2026-2028 earnings forecasts and project 2026/2027/2028 EPS at RMB4.00/4.64/5.51.We maintain our valuation of 18.5x 2026E PE for A-/H-shares(5%/1 standard deviation above its average A-/H-share PE ratios since 2017).Our target prices are unchanged at RMB74.00/HKD84.09.
Risks:weaker automobile consumption than we expect;sharper cost hikes than we expect;significant forex rate fluctuations;geopolitical risks.

　　公司发布2026年一季报，实现营收104.13亿元，yoy+5.08%，实现归母净利17.12亿元，yoy-15.68%，扣非归母净利16.43亿元，yoy-17.32%。公司业绩短期承压，主要受26Q1发生汇兑损失4.39亿元影响，而25年同期为汇兑收益2.36亿元。若剔除汇兑损益的扰动，公司26Q1利润总额同比增长9.63%，高于收入增速，显示主营业务增长韧性和盈利能力持续提升。我们认为，公司高附加值产品占比提升与全球化布局将持续驱动业绩增长，而稳定的高分红政策也彰显了其投资价值，维持公司A/H“买入”。
　　主业毛利率同比环比均实现提升
　　公司26Q1综合毛利率为37.38%，同比/环比分别提升1.98/0.35pct，我们认为仍主要得益于高附加值产品占比提升和公司坚持聚焦汽车玻璃主业。受益于汽车“新四化”浪潮，公司供应的汽车玻璃产品正从传统结构件向功能件跃迁，2024/2025年公司高附加值产品收入占汽车玻璃收入比重分别达到49%/54%，呈现上升趋势。随着智能全景天幕、抬头显示（HUD）玻璃、调光玻璃等高附加值产品应用比例的进一步提升，我们预计公司ASP和毛利率有望持续受益。
　　阶段性汇兑损失不改公司全球化份额提升
　　公司26Q1期间费用率18.19%，同比+7.55pct，其中主要是财务费用率同比+6.01pct至2.48%。公司26Q1利息费用同比-12.85%，且利息收入同比+26.35%，财务费用率同比上升主要受汇兑损失的阶段性影响。我们认为公司坚定推进全球化战略，虽然全球汽车玻璃份额超过35%，但随着海外生产成本的快速上升，公司有望通过差异化竞争策略继续提升北美和欧洲的市场份额。公司美国二期工厂产能持续爬坡，且天幕玻璃等高附加值产品比例提升，而在欧洲市场，公司凭借“国内生产+欧洲本地化增值加工”的“1+N”模式，市场份额有望进一步扩大。
　　汇票结算短期扰动经营现金流
　　公司26Q1经营活动现金流量净额为3.57亿元，同比-82.22%，主要是客户以汇票结算金额增加及到期应付票据支付增加所致，我们认为短期阶段性影响经营现金流。公司前期持续进行高强度的资本开支，但安徽合肥、福建福清及美国等生产基地已于25年陆续建成投产，未来资本开支减少有望驱动自由现金流改善。公司长期以来坚持高比例分红回馈股东，2023-2025年分红比例分别为60%/63%/59%，彰显公司较强的分红意愿和能力。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　虽然汇兑损失阶段性影响了公司26Q1归母净利，但我们认为公司正积极采取措施应对，且公司毛利率保持提升趋势，因此外汇的全年影响还有待观察，暂维持26-28年盈利预测。我们预计公司26-28年EPS为4.00/4.64/5.51元，维持给予公司A/H股18.5x26年PE（较2017年以来A/H股平均PE分别高5%/1个标准差），维持目标价74.00元/84.09港元。
　　风险提示：汽车消费力度弱于预期，成本上升强于预期，汇率大幅波动及地缘政治风险。

　　事件：公司发布2025年年报，2025年实现营业收入457.87亿元，同比16.65%；实现归母净利润93.12亿元，同比24.20%；实现扣非归母净利润91.65亿元，同比23.08%。全年每股派息1.2元，叠加中期分红后全年现金分红达54.8亿元，股息率约4%，延续高比例分红传统。2025Q4，公司实现营业收入124.86亿元，同比14.15%，环比5.32%；实现归母净利润22.48亿元，同比11.35%，环比-0.47%。
　　业绩增长强劲，Q4毛利率显著提升，受汇率波动影响财务费用率持续上行。2025年公司收入与利润均实现双位数增长，其中利润增速显著快于收入增速，彰显了较强的盈利弹性。分产品看，汽车玻璃作为基本盘，实现收入418.89亿元，同比17.30%；浮法玻璃实现收入64.80亿元，同比8.71%。盈利能力方面，2025年毛利率37.27%，同比1.04pct，净利率20.35%，同比1.23pct；2025Q4毛利率为37.03%，同比4.91pct，环比-0.87pct，Q4净利率为18.01%，同比-0.37pct，环比-1.05pct。分产品看，2025年汽车玻璃毛利率31.32%，同比提升1.17pct，浮法玻璃毛利率39.64%，同比提升3.60pct。盈利能力的提升主要得益于高附加值产品占比增加、全价值链协同降本以及海运费、天然气等成本优化。费用端，25Q4期间费用率15.77%，同比6.36pct/环比1.60pct，其中25Q4销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为3.06%/7.81%/4.16%/0.74%，分别同比3.39/0.45/-0.07/2.60pct，分别环比0.35/0.25/-0.14/1.14pct。费用率上升主要受汇率波动影响，导致财务费用率上行，同时公司处于新产线爬坡期，人力投入等管理端刚性成本小幅抬升。研发支出维持高位，重点布局智能玻璃集成、光伏玻璃镀膜（钙钛矿技术透光率达93%）、0.7mm超薄玻璃（已获特斯拉Cybertruck订单）及氢能储运复合玻璃材料等前沿方向。
　　智能全景天幕玻璃、可调光玻璃、抬头显示玻璃等高附加值产品占比提升，驱动ASP结构性增长。2025年公司收入和业绩增速较快，主要受益于1）国内以旧换新、新能源汽车车辆购置税减免、新能源汽车下乡等一系列刺激汽车消费政策，带动公司汽车玻璃销量向上；2）智能全景天幕玻璃、可调光玻璃、抬头显示玻璃、超隔绝玻璃等高附加值产品占比有所提升。2025年，公司高附加值产品销售占比同比提升5.44pct，成为驱动公司ASP和毛利率提升的核心引擎。高附加值产品不仅单价远高于传统产品，且技术壁垒更高，进一步巩固了公司的竞争优势和盈利空间。随着高价值产品在客户端的加速渗透，公司有望进入量价齐升的长期增长通道。
　　全球化战略成效显著，产能有望实现跨越式提升。公司海外业务表现亮眼，2025年实现收入208.57亿元，同比18.81%，增速超越国内市场，收入占比提升至45.5%。美国工厂经营持续改善，产能利用率达95%，全年实现营收79.17亿元，净利润8.84亿元，盈利能力稳步提升。2025年公司在全球汽车玻璃保持超过30%的市场份额，稳居全球第一。为支撑全球扩张，公司逆势扩产，安徽合肥、福清阳下、本溪浮法、匈牙利等重点项目已于2025年相继投产，2026年将继续加速推进上海铝件、重庆铝件、安徽饰件、安徽模具等新项目建设，进一步巩固全球供应能力和成本护城河。
　　管理层顺利交接注入活力，高分红彰显发展信心。2025年曹晖先生接任董事长，在产品边界拓展和公司治理方面带来积极影响，为公司注入新的活力，为公司的长期可持续发展奠定坚实基础。近年来公司维持高比例分红政策，2025年度现金分红合计54.8亿元，分红率达58.85%，充分体现了公司强劲的增长能力和对投资者的回报承诺，彰显了其作为核心资产的长期配置价值。
　　投资建议：公司2026年增长主要受益于：1）国内以旧换新等刺激汽车消费政策延续，带动公司汽车玻璃销量向上；2）国内外产能加速释放，区域配套能力和全球化交付能力增强；全球化产能落地：合肥基地（投资57.5亿元）、美国浮法玻璃新产线（增资4亿美元）加速建设，支撑未来订单需求。3）智能全景天幕玻璃、可调光玻璃、抬头显示玻璃、超隔绝玻璃等高附加值产品占比提升，带动公司ASP增速上行。预计公司2026-2028年营收分别为526.54/608.20/696.16亿元；归母净利润分别为102.13/124.26/140.96亿元，EPS分别为3.91/4.76/5.40元，对应PE分别为14.55/11.96/10.55倍，维持“推荐”评级。

　　投资要点
　　事件：公司发布2025年年度报告。2025年公司实现营业收入457.87亿元，同比增长16.65%；实现归母净利润93.12亿元，同比增长24.20%。其中，2025Q4单季度公司实现营业收入124.86亿元，同比增长14.15%，环比增长5.32%；实现归母净利润22.48亿元，同比增长11.35%，环比下降0.47%。公司2025Q4业绩整体符合我们的预期。
　　公司2025Q4业绩基本符合预期，毛利率环比稍有下滑。营收端，公司2025Q4单季度实现营业收入124.86亿元，同比增长14.15%，环比增长5.32%，主要系公司全球份额持续增长+汽车玻璃升级推动ASP提升。此外，公司营收同比增速持续跑赢全球汽车行业，体现出公司作为全球汽车玻璃龙头企业的强大竞争优势和虹吸效应。ASP方面，公司2025年汽车玻璃每平方米单价为247.60元，同比提升8.07%，主要系汽车玻璃产品持续升级，公司高附加值产品收入占比不断提升。毛利率方面，公司2025Q4单季度毛利率为37.03%，环比微降0.87个百分点。期间费用方面，公司2025Q4单季度期间费用率为15.77%，环比提升1.60个百分点；其中，2025Q4单季度公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为3.06%/7.81%/4.16%/0.74%，环比分别+0.35/+0.25/-0.14/+1.14个百分点；公司2025Q4财务费用率环比提升主要系汇兑亏损所致。归母净利润方面，公司2025Q4单季度实现归母净利润22.48亿元，环比下降0.47%；对应归母净利率18.01%，环比下降1.05个百分点。
　　全球汽车玻璃行业龙头，份额提升+单车ASP增长推动公司持续发展向上。1）份额方面，全球汽玻行业格局集中，三家主要竞争对手汽玻业务盈利水平均处在较低水平，资本开支和业务扩张的意愿较低。而福耀汽玻业务盈利能力远超对手，且正处于第三轮资本开支周期，随着后续美国扩产项目、福清出口基地和福耀合肥基地等产能陆续释放，公司全球份额有望实现进一步提升。2）单车ASP方面，随着汽车智能化的持续发展，汽车玻璃的功能也在持续升级，HUD前挡、全景天幕（集成镀膜、调光等功能）、双层边窗等高附加值产品渗透率的提升持续推动汽玻行业和公司单车配套价值量增长。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到因外汇波动导致公司汇兑亏损等情况，我们将公司2026-2027年的归母净利润预测从111.11亿元/131.74亿元调整至101.29亿元/111.10亿元，新增2028年归母净利润预测值121.73亿元，对应的EPS分别为3.88元、4.26元、4.66元，市盈率分别为14.55倍、13.27倍、12.11倍，公司作为全球汽玻龙头仍处估值低位，看好公司长期稳健发展，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：原材料价格、能源价格以及海运费上涨超预期；汽车行业销量不及预期；新建产能爬坡不及预期。

In 1Q26, Fuyao’s revenue grew 5.1% to RMB10.4bn, broadly in line. Domestic revenue beat driven by impressive ASP surge of 11% YoY and market share gains post-4Q capacity release, whereas overseas revenue continued to slow. 1Q26 gross margin of 37.4% beat expectations, delivering a counter-trend expansion. If stripping out RMB439m in FX losses and non-recurring items, core profit jumped 18.9% YoY to RMB 2.08bn, slightly topping our projections of RMB1.9-2.0bn. As market focus within the auto parts sector shifts toward earnings visibility and margin stability, we expect Fuyao to stand out, underpinned by its dominant market position and visible ASP expansion that stands in stark contrast to the deflationary pressures seen in tech-heavy components like LiDAR. Thus, even in face of raw material price volatility and pricing pressure from OEMs, we believe Fuyao’s profit resilience remains superior across the sector. Maintain BUY with TP of HK$83, based on 20x 2026E P/E.
Key Factors for Rating
1Q26 revenue broadly aligns expectation though regionally mixed. The company logged 1Q26 revenue of RMB10.4bn, up 5.1% YoY, in line with our forecasts, yet regional performance varied. Domestically, automotive glass revenue climbed 3.2% YoY to RMB5.0bn, significantly outpacing the 9.3% YoY decline in domestic passenger vehicle production, exceeding our expectations, fueled by an impressive 11% YoY ASP surge (vs. a 2025 full-year jump of 8.1% and 4Q25’s 10.5% YoY rise) and steady market share gains post-4Q capacity additions. We reckon the rapid ramp-up of smart dimmable glass has become a key driver behind Fuyao's better-than-expected ASP uptrend. On the flip side, overseas automotive glass revenue growth slowed to 11.2% YoY, which marks the second consecutive quarter of growth slowdown, underscoring weakening momentum amid the global automotive market softness.
Gross margin beat with counter-trend improvement with manageable cost headwinds in sight. The company reported a 1Q26 gross margin of 37.4%, up 2ppts/0.4ppt YoY/QoQ, reflecting a notable counter-trend uptick that exceeded our projections. The improvement was primarily fueled by an improved product structure with stronger ASP, strong order pipeline sustaining elevated domestic capacity utilisation, a QoQ profitability boost in overseas units (primarily FGA), and favourable raw material costs dynamics. While market concerns linger over rising natural gas prices and shipping cost volatility potentially disrupting future margin trajectories, we expect the adverse impact to remain modest aided by the company’s rigorous cost oversight and positive product upgrade dynamics.

　　事件:
　　福耀玻璃2026年3月18日发布2025年年报：2025年全年，公司实现营业收入457.87亿元，同比增长16.65%；实现归母净利润93.12亿元，同比增长24.20%；实现扣非归母净利润91.65亿元，同比增长23.08%。其中2025Q4，公司实现营业收入124.86亿元，同比增长14.15%；实现归母净利润22.48亿元，同比增长11.35%；实现扣非归母净利润22.43亿元，同比增长18.34%。
　　投资要点:
　　2025年收入同比增速跑赢国内/美国汽车行业销量表现，高附加值产品占比持续提升。公司2025年实现营收457.87亿元，同比增长16.65%。根据中国汽车工业协会和市场研究机构Omdia的数据，中国、美国汽车销量2025年同比分别增长9.4%/2.4%，公司营收同比增速跑赢国内、美国汽车行业销量同比增速。公司收入同比增长，主要得益于各类产品收入以及海内外收入的同步增长。分产品来看，2025年公司汽车玻璃、浮法玻璃分别实现收入418.9亿元/64.8亿元，同比分别增长17.3%/8.7%；分地区来看，国内和国外分别实现收入242.4亿元/208.6亿元，同比分别增长14.6%/18.8%，2025年年内安徽合肥、福清阳下、本溪浮法、匈牙利等重点项目已相继投产，后续有望进一步扩大公司收入规模。此外，从价格端来看，根据2025年年报，智能全景天幕玻璃、可调光玻璃、抬头显示玻璃、超隔绝玻璃、轻量化超薄玻璃、镀膜可加热玻璃、平齐式钢化夹层玻璃等高附加值产品占比持续提升，占比较上年同期上升5.44个百分点，单车价值量提升助力公司业绩提升。
　　产品毛利率提升和费用率优化带动公司盈利能力提升。公司2025年实现归母净利润93.12亿元，同比增长24.20%。利润率方面，公司2025年分别实现销售毛利率/销售净利率37.27%/20.35%，同比分别提升1.04pct/1.23pct。公司各类产品毛利率均有提升，汽车玻璃和浮法玻璃的毛利率分别同比提升1.17pct/3.60pct。费用率方面，2025年期间费用率为12.70%，同比优化0.27pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别变化-0.11pct/+0.07pct/-0.09pct/-0.14pct。
　　盈利预测和投资评级我们认为，公司收入端持续增长确定性强（主要由全球市占率+ASP+单车面积提升驱动），利润端表现趋势向上，但会受到汇兑损益波动、SAM亏损波动、纯碱和天然气等原材料成本影响。后续随着国内外新建成产能逐步爬坡放量，公司市占率提升速度有望超预期。我们预计公司2026-2028年实现营业收入524.48/605.96/689.61亿元，同比增速为15%/16%/14%；实现归母净利润102.74/122.89/145.33亿元，同比增速10%/20%/18%；EPS为3.94/4.71/5.57元，对应当前股价的PE估值分别为14/12/10倍，我们看好公司持续向上趋势，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示原材料价格上涨；能源价格上涨；海运费上涨；市场竞争加剧；客户拓展不及预期；SAM整合进度不及预期；全球贸易环境的不确定性；汇率波动风险；现金分红不及预期；高层更迭带来的不确定性。

In 4Q25, Fuyao reported in-line revenue growth of 14.1% YoY but with mixed regional dynamics. Gross margin slipped 0.9ppt QoQ to 37%, slightly below our projections, affected by extra rebates domestically and a retreat in overseas profitability. Neutralised by lower FX losses and tax expense, 4Q25 attributable net income stayed flat QoQ at RMB2.2bn, align with our forecasts. For overseas facilities (mainly SAM and US bases), both operations showed volatility in revenue or margin in 4Q25. To reflect domestic market headwinds to both revenue and margins, we tweak our net profit forecasts for 2026/27 by 3-5% to RMB9.5bn and RMB11.1bn, respectively. While capacity mismatches in the domestic market led to a temporary pullback in utilisation this year, we deem Fuyao’s long-term growth narrative stays robust, underpinned by its competitive cost disciplines, global diversification, and innovative strengths that secure its leadership in the worldwide automotive glass industry. Maintain BUY.
Key Factors for Rating
Topline largely in line whereas regional dynamics mixed. Fuyao Glass reported 4Q25 revenue of RMB12.5bn, up 14.1% YoY and 5.3% QoQ, broadly in line but with mixed regional performance. By region, fueled by the ramp-up of additional capacity, domestic automotive glass revenue grew 13.4% YoY to RMB6.9bn, significantly outstripping the modest 2.2% YoY increase in domestic passenger vehicle output and exceeding our prior forecasts. Overseas automotive glass revenue YoY growth tapered to c.18% from 3Q25’s 29%, alongside a QoQ contraction, missing our estimates on the back of subdued overseas shipments amid seasonality softness. For the full year, ASP of automotive glass continued upward trajectory, rising 8.1% YoY to RMB247 per sqm, smashing the company’s original guidance and reflecting a favourable product mix shift toward higher-value-added offerings.
4Q25 gross margin slightly missed on domestic rebates and FGA margin dip. 4Q25 GPM declined 0.9ppt QoQ to 37.0% in 4Q25, slightly below our estimates. This is mainly stemmed from: (1) greater extra year-end rebates on domestic automotive glass sales, impacting margins by approximately 0.6ppt; and (2) a modest softening in FGA’s profitability. Even with these factors, the company’s tight cost controls and effective capacity leverage fostered underlying resilience. Moving into 2026, margin dynamics may encounter challenges from mismatched domestic supply and demand, caused by the full commissioning of Hefei and Fuqing bases, potentially causing short-term utilisation moderation in a tepid PV market. Nonetheless, favourable raw material stability (i.e. sodium carbonate) should offer a counterbalance.

Bolstered by seasonal domestic sales growth and steady overseas demand, we project 4Q25 revenue to rise mid-teens YoY to RMB12.5bn, with gross margin holding stable at 38%. Yet, FX losses derived from USD/EUR depreciation will likely keep net profit flat at RMB2.2-2.3bn sequentially. For German SAM, we anticipate deepened QoQ losses stemming from layoff-related restructuring costs, whereas cost-cut initiatives and aluminum trim capacity relocation to domestic plants should drive a turnaround for SAM this year. For 2026, we anticipate milder cost inflation for Fuyao relative to peers, but the primary operation headwinds will stem from supply-demand misalignment. In addition, the expected appreciation of RMB against USD/EURO may lead to FX loss and temper export ASP/margin to some extent. We leave our 2025-26E net profit forecasts at RMB9.3bn/RMB10bn intact. Despite temporary headwinds from sector slowdown versus capacity ramp-up, we believe Fuyao’s long-term growth outlook remains credible. Maintain BUY with H/A-share TP of HK$83/RMB84.
Key Factors for Rating
4Q25 results preview. Driven by sequential growth in domestic auto production output, we expect Fuyao Glass to post mid-single digit revenue growth QoQ to RMB12.5bn in 4Q25, though YoY growth may modestly slow to mid-teens from 3Q25. By regions, we forecast 4Q25 domestic auto glass revenue at RMB6.5bn, with a slight seasonal QoQ uptick despite slimmer YoY growth. Overseas auto glass revenue is projected at RMB5.0bn, stable QoQ but up nearly 30% YoY. 4Q25 reported gross margin is expected to hold steady at ~38%. Due to slight depreciation of the Euro and USD against RMB, we estimate FX losses of RMB200-300m in 4Q25. Paired with expanded revenue scale and stable margins, attributable net income is likely to remain flat QoQ at RMB2.2-2.3bn.
Layoff-related restructuring costs may sequentially deepen SAM’s 4Q25 losses, but pave the way for a turnaround in 2026. We learnt that Germany SAM has achieved single-month profitability in October 2025, but headcount reductions in 4Q25 to improve efficiency resulted in one-off operational costs, potentially widening the quarterly loss from EUR0.6m in 3Q25 and missing the original break-even target. Strategically, the company aims for aluminum trim segment revenue of RMB5.5-6.0bn by 2028 (more than double from est. revenue of RMB2.0-2.5bn in 2025). In Germany unit, the company will continue downsizing and cost-cut measures to realise profitability in 2026. In China, new aluminum trim capacity in Shanghai Jiading (mid-2026) and Chongqing Wansheng (end-2026) will consecutively launch, seamlessly absorbing order takes from SAM Germany and enhancing the global-domestic business synergies.
We retain our revenue forecasts for 2026E and 2027E at RMB52.4bn and RMB59.3bn, respectively, and net profit forecasts at RMB10.0bn and RMB11.4bn. Given softened domestic demand dynamics, specific operational cycle with expanded capacities, and FX volatilities, we anticipate Fuyao’s earnings flexibility to be constrained in 2026. Still, net income should remain strong, with elevated progress projected starting from 2027.
At present, Fuyao’s H-shares and A-shares are currently trading at 15.1x and 15.8x 2026E P/E, respectively, both undemanding in our view. Regardless temporary headwinds from decelerating industry demand versus capacity ramp-up and FX fluctuations, Fuyao’s long-term structural growth outlook remains strong and credible. Maintain BUY with H-share TP of HK$83.00 and A-share TP of RMB 84.00. We reckon Fuyao’s unrivaled global leadership in auto glass and its superior outbound growth potential could support its valuation.

　　2026车市全球需求支撑、ASP稳健上行。1）销量层面，2026年，伴随新能源购置税上涨5%以及以旧换新政策退坡，汽车内需表现承压但出海端仍有稳健提升预期，预计国内批发需求整体在出口需求支撑下仍然具备韧性。其中，①欧洲：伴随福清产能竣工与本土重要竞争对手巨头圣戈班新增份额的退出，欧洲出货量预计呈现持续上行趋势；②北美：终端需求稳健，伴随福耀美国工厂一期、二期投产，本土销售能力持续上行。（2）ASP层面：全景天幕玻璃、抬头显示玻璃等高附加值产品占比提升带动单价上行，2025年1-9月高附加值产品占比同比提升4.92pct，平方米单价同比增长6.90%。伴随电动智能化趋势下汽玻产品持续升级、美关税政策下产品通胀，我们预计公司2026年产品单价仍有望维持6-7%增长，具备超预期能力。
　　盈利能力有望延续韧性，成本下行充分对冲折旧影响。2026年虽受下游需求扰动，但我们预计公司盈利能力有望维持稳健表现。成本端，原材料纯碱价格持续下探，3月以来由高点1600元/吨下探至最新1250元/吨，海运费用稳中有降，有望充分对冲公司扩产转固带来的折旧。出口端海运费用震荡下行，海外层面，本土产能方面美国工厂二期进入高效爬产，综合盈利能力有望继续提升，并充分对冲市场担忧的电力等成本项的微弱上行，带来较好的海内外成本对冲表现。
　　全球成长逻辑延续、估值回调充分，关注出海龙头稳健投资价值。2026年出海尤其海外具备产能的低估值龙头具备较强的投资价值，我们认为前期调整已充分消化市场对明年汽车行业增长放缓与公司折旧上行等因素可能带来的担忧，展望后续，欧美出海价量齐升趋势持续，国内车市政策或有延续空间，智能玻璃与后市场第二增长曲线全球有望持续兑现。按公司2025/2026年实现分别97/108亿元归母净利润，当前市值对应PE接近17/15倍。考虑到公司具备高分红的防御属性，按自上市以来稳定兑现水平（平均分红率近60%），当前PE对应近12个月股息率4.35%，建议重点关注出海龙头稳健投资价值。
　　投资建议：我们预计公司2025-2027年实现营收464.8/527.5/605.5亿元，归母净利润分别为96.64/108.25/124.45亿元，EPS分别为3.70/4.15/4.77元，给予“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：原材料价格波动风险；行业竞争加剧风险；地缘政治风险。