Near-Term Pressured; Customer Diversification Continues
发布时间:2026-09-09 来源:华泰证券
Huayu Automotive (Huayu) reported 1H26 revenue of RMB83.9bn (-1.43% YoY), attributable NP of RMB2.65bn (-8.67% YoY), and recurring NP of RMB2.31bn (-14.29% YoY), with the prior-year figures retrospectively adjusted for business combinations under common control. In 2Q26, revenue reached RMB43.8bn (-1.85% YoY, +8.89% QoQ), attributable NP came in at RMB1.40bn (-13.44% YoY, +12.76% QoQ), and recurring NP was RMB1.16bn (-24.29% YoY, +0.84% QoQ). Higher FX losses and weaker investment income from joint ventures were key earnings drags. Looking ahead, we expect the company’s performance to improve as higher-value-added products enter production and its intelligent-vehicle product portfolio ramps up. Maintain BUY.
Revenue: near-term pressured; client mix diversifies
1) By product, interior and exterior trim revenue reached RMB60.5bn in 1H26 (-1.65% YoY, based on restated 1H25 figure). Functional parts recorded the largest decline, with revenue falling to RMB12.4bn (-12.17% YoY). Growth was mainly driven by electronics and electrical components, where revenue reached RMB3.35bn (+36.12% YoY). 2) The customer diversification strategy continued to advance. Based on the company’s aggregated disclosure, non-SAIC automakers contributed 67.2% of core operating revenue, up by 3.5pp from 63.7% in 1H25. Meanwhile, sales to SAIC joint ventures declined by 26.94% YoY, while sales to SAIC Motor and its subsidiaries increased by 82.75% YoY. The customer mix is becoming more diversified, with a greater contribution from non-SAIC customers and SAIC’s proprietary brands.
Earnings: 2Q26 GPM broadly stable; FX losses weigh on NP
1) Gross margin was 11.71% in 2Q26 (-0.19pp YoY, -0.42pp QoQ), potentially reflecting lower capacity utilization amid weaker revenue. 2) Selling, administrative, R&D and financial expense ratios were 0.46%/4.71%/3.76%/0.36% (+0.00pp/+0.03pp/+0.26pp/+0.47pp YoY and +0.01pp/+0.18pp/-0.18pp/-0.31pp QoQ), respectively. The financial expense ratio recorded the largest YoY increase, mainly due to higher FX losses, which represented the single largest drag on net margin. 3) Investment income was broadly flat at RMB757mn (+0.21% YoY), although its composition changed. Investment income from associates and joint ventures declined to RMB557mn (-19.03% YoY), while the disposal of Shanghai Yanfeng Exterior Trim generated a one-off gain of RMB121mn. Excluding this gain, 2Q26 investment income declined by approximately 16% YoY. 4) As a result, attributable net margin reached 3.21% in 2Q26 (-0.43pp YoY, +0.11pp QoQ).
Earnings forecast and valuation
Factoring in industry production and sales pressure, lower supply volumes to joint-venture customers, FX losses and the company’s actual 1H26 performance, we modestly lower our earnings forecasts. We forecast revenue of RMB194.2bn/RMB212.9bn/RMB229.3bn for 2026-2028 (-4.34%/-4.09%/-4.05% versus our previous forecasts) and attributable NP of RMB7.24bn/RMB8.05bn/RMB8.72bn (-7.33%/-4.68%/-1.01% versus our previous forecasts). Comparable companies trade at an average of 11.9x 2026E PE based on iFind consensus. Given the company’s continued high exposure to traditional businesses and joint-venture customers, we apply 9.9x 2026E PE and derive a target price of RMB22.77 (previously RMB27.03, based on 10.9x 2026E PE). Maintain BUY.
Risks: weaker-than-we-expected vehicle production and sales at downstream customers, weaker-than-we-expected near-term profitability of new products, exchange rate volatility.