Maanshan Iron&Steel has posted 2025 revenue of RMB77.52bn(-5.25%YoY)and an attributable net loss of RMB209mn,narrowing by 95.51%YoY.The improved performance primarily reflects successful product-mix optimization and cost-control initiatives,although asset-impairment charges resulted in earnings missing our RMB84.54mn profit forecast.Looking ahead,we expect profitability to recover further amid apotential industry recovery and the company’s structural adjustments&cost-efficiency measures.Maintain HOLD.
Mix optimization&cost control offset by asset impairment
Full-year revenue declined by 5.25%YoY,primarily due to decreased average steel selling prices.However,with iron ore index and coking coal settlement prices changing by+1.8%and-13.9%YoY respectively in 2025(Mysteel),coupled with effective cost-cutting measures and operational improvements,operating costs fell by 11.12%YoY.This drove the gross margin to 5.31%(+6.26pp YoY).Operating expenses totaled RMB2.74bn for the year(-3.29%YoY).In terms of production,in 2025,pig iron output rose by 5.14%YoY to 19.01mn tonnes;crude steel decreased by 5.75%YoY to 18.69mn tonnes.Finished products grew by 11.33%YoY to 20.44mn tonnes.The company recorded RMB925mn in asset-impairment losses for 2025,mainly from scrapping some production lines and assets related to blast furnace&converter projects,which negatively impacted earnings.
Maintain HOLD
Considering the steel industry’s cyclical recovery and the company’s product-mix optimization,we raise our gross profit assumptions for long steel and plate products while lowering our crude steel production&sales volume estimates.We forecast attributable net profit of RMB1,299/1,991/2,228mn for 2026/2027/2028,representing 14.26/16.60%upward revisions vs our prior 2026-2027 estimates.We project BVPS at RMB3.23/3.44/3.65.The stock has historically traded at 0.90x PB(five-year average).We maintain a50%premium to reflect improving profitability trends,with potential further upside from dual carbon policies.Our 2026E PB target of 1.35x,combined with the RMB/HKD exchange rate of 0.88 and three-month A/H premium of 75%(as of 26 March),yields target prices of RMB4.36/HKD2.83(previous:RMB3.93/HKD2.61 based on 1.3x 2025E PB).Maintain HOLD.

　　公司发布25年年报：营业收入775.2亿元，同比减少5.25%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润-2.09亿元，亏损同比收窄95.51%。公司亏损收窄主因品种改善与控本增效进度良好，但因资产计提减值，净利润不及我们预期（8454万元）。展望未来，行业景气度有望复苏，叠加公司持续调整盈利结构，控本增效，盈利能力有望持续回升。我们维持“持有”评级。
　　品种改善+费用控制良好，资产减值影响业绩
　　公司全年营收同比减少5.25%，主因钢材平均销售价格下行，但受益于2025年铁矿石指数与焦炭结算价分别同比+1.8%和-13.9%（Mysteel），且公司积极降本增效，提升营运质量，营业成本同比-11.12%，营业毛利率5.31%（同比+6.26pct）；期间费用27.38亿元（同比-3.29%）。品种结构上，公司生产生铁1,901万吨，同比增加5.14%，粗钢1,869万吨，同比减少5.75%，成品坯材2,044万吨，同比增加11.33%。此外，公司2025年全年资产减值损失达9.25亿元，主要原因系对部分产线、高炉与转炉连铸项目所涉及资产进行报废处置，对业绩造成一定负面影响。
　　钢铁：供给约束预期升温，行业盈利弹性或逐步释放
　　据华泰金属《双碳减排先行，钢铁或迎业绩弹性》（26-02-26），近期两会期间部分钢企接到自主减排通知或标志着双碳政策进入实质执行阶段，供给约束常态化或成为行业盈利修复核心驱动，2026年钢铁行业盈利或具备向上修复空间。当前行业景气度处于历史低位，叠加粗钢产量长期下行，下游需求结构持续优化，钢铁正进入供给收缩、政策驱动、利润弹性放大的复苏周期。在此背景下，公司产品结构持续优化，加大钢铁出口力度，叠加控本增效，盈利能力有望回升。
　　维持“持有”评级
　　考虑到钢铁行业景气度回升，且公司产品结构持续优化，我们上调了公司长材、板材产品的毛利，下调了粗钢产销量。我们测算公司26-28年归母净利分别为12.99、19.91、22.28亿元，26-27年同比上调14.26%/16.60%；BVPS为3.23/3.44/3.65元，公司近五年PB均值0.90X，我们维持溢价50%反映公司盈利向好趋势确立，后续双碳政策若持续进行或进一步改善行业和公司利润，26年PB取1.35X；并基于3月26日人民币与港元汇率0.88、近三个月A/H溢价率75%（26-3-26），A/H目标价4.36元/2.83港元（前值3.93元/2.61港元，基于25年PB1.3X），维持“持有”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。