In 1Q26,revenue at Maanshan Iron&Steel declined 8.79%YoY to RMB17.72bn,with attributable net profit turning to apositive RMB42mn(vs RMB144mn loss in 1Q25).Recurring net profit was still negative at RMB-6mn,albeit narrowing by RMB149mn YoY.The earnings improvement was owing to the company’s cost-cutting and expense discipline,partially offsetting headwinds from weaker steel prices and elevated raw material costs.We expect optimization of the product mix and key projects to support an earnings recovery.Maintain HOLD.
1Q26:Return to profit with margin expansion and cost cutting
In 1Q26,gross margin improved 0.40pp YoY to 3.10%,driven by operating efficiency gains(cost reduction of~RMB72/tonne)that partially offset weak steel prices.The operating expense ratio fell 0.40pp YoY to 2.76%,with selling expenses down 6.48%YoY to RMB64mn,administrative expenses up 12.78%to RMB240mn,R&D spending down 37.57%to RMB130mn,and financial expenses decreasing 56.37%to RMB55mn on lower interest payments and higher interest income.Non-recurring items were RMB48mn(mainly asset disposal gains),while recurring attributable net profit stood at RMB-6mn,representing aRMB149mn YoY reduction in losses.This reflects core operations remain near breakeven.
Cost leadership offset weak steel prices
Revenue declined 8.79%YoY to RMB17.72bn in 1Q26,with attributable net profit turning to apositive RMB42mn(vs loss YoY)while recurring net loss narrowed to RMB-6mn.Per industry data,domestic steel prices in China remained depressed during the quarter as raw material costs fluctuated at high levels,creating operating headwinds for the industry.According to company data,it produced 4.75mt of hot metal(+3.94%YoY),5.21mt of crude steel(+1.17%),and 5.00mt of value-added products(+2.04%)in 1Q26.Notably,the company improved its hot metal cost ranking from 16th to 3rd industry-wide domestically,achieving aRMB72/tonne steel cost reduction.
Maintain HOLD
We maintain our earnings forecasts,projecting attributable net profit of RMB1,299/1,991/2,228mn for 2026/2027/2028,with BVPS at RMB3.23/3.44/3.65.The stock has historically traded at a5-year average PB of 0.91x.We apply a50%premium(2026E PB of 1.37x)to reflect its trajectory of improving earnings,with potential upside from the implementation of China’s dual-carbon policy.Based on the RMB/HKD exchange rate of 0.87(25 April 2026)and a3-month A/H premium of 70%,our target prices are RMB4.41/HKD2.98(previous:RMB4.36/HKD2.83 based on 2026E PB of 1.35x).Maintain HOLD.
Upside risks:Commodity prices exceeding our expectations.Downside risks:Commodity prices being lower than we expect,uncertainty over implementation of domestic steel policies,lower downstream demand than we expect.

　　2026年一季度，公司实现营业收入177.18亿元（yoy-8.79%），归母净利润0.42亿元（同比扭亏，上年同期-1.44亿元），扣非归母净利润-0.06亿元（同比减亏1.49亿元）。业绩改善主要受益于公司内部降本增效及费用管控，部分对冲了钢材价格下行和原燃料高位运行的负面影响。展望后市，随着产品结构持续优化及重点项目推进，公司业绩有望修复。维持“持有”评级。
　　26Q1同比扭亏，毛利率微增与费用下行共振
　　2026年一季度，公司毛利率为3.10%，同比提升0.40pct，主要得益于内部降本增效（吨钢成本下降约72元），部分对冲了钢材价格低位运行的负面影响。期间费用率为2.76%，同比下降0.40pct。其中，销售费用0.64亿元（yoy-6.48%），管理费用2.40亿元（yoy+12.78%），研发费用1.30亿元（yoy-37.57%），财务费用0.55亿元（yoy-56.37%），财务费用大幅下降主要因利息支出减少及利息收入增加。非经常性损益0.48亿元，主要为资产处置收益，对利润有一定贡献。剔除后扣非归母净利润为-0.06亿元，同比减亏1.49亿元，反映主营业务仍在盈亏平衡附近。
　　26Q1钢材价格低位运行，铁水成本行业排名大幅提升
　　2026年一季度，公司实现营业收入177.18亿元（yoy-8.79%），归母净利润0.42亿元（同比扭亏），扣非归母净利润-0.06亿元（同比减亏）。据公司披露及行业数据，2026年一季度国内钢材价格整体低位运行，原燃料价格高位波动，行业面临较大经营压力。公司生产铁水475万吨、粗钢521万吨、品种材500万吨，同比分别增长3.94%、1.17%、2.04%。公司铁水成本行业排名从16位提升至第3位，吨钢成本下降约72元，降本成效显著。
　　产品结构优化持续推进，重点项目产能释放有望带动业绩改善
　　面向2026年，公司持续推进产品结构优化和降本增效，致力于提升高端产品占比和运营效率。业务层面，公司推动"2+2+N"产品战略，高等级CSP产线、重型H型钢项目、车轮项目等重点工程按计划推进。国际化层面，板带出口占比持续提升，海外市场拓展取得进展。26Q1"2+2+N"产品占比47.4%（同比+6.4pct），板带产品终端占比59.2%（同比+19.3pct），板带出口占比11.8%（同比+2.9pct）。随着产品结构优化、重点产线投产及降本措施持续深化，公司业绩有望逐季修复。
　　维持“持有”评级
　　我们维持盈利预测，测算公司26-28年公司归母净利润分别为12.99/19.91/22.28亿元，BVPS为3.23/3.44/3.65元。公司近五年PB均值0.91X，我们维持溢价50%反映公司盈利向好趋势确立，后续双碳政策若持续进行或进一步改善行业和公司利润，26年PB取1.37X；并基于4月25日人民币与港元汇率0.87、近三个月A/H溢价率70%（26-4-25），A/H目标价4.41元/2.98港元（前值4.36元/2.83港元，基于26年PB1.35X），维持“持有”评级。
　　风险提示：钢材价格大幅下行风险；原燃料价格高位波动风险；下游需求不及预期风险；产能释放不及预期风险。

Maanshan Iron&Steel has posted 2025 revenue of RMB77.52bn(-5.25%YoY)and an attributable net loss of RMB209mn,narrowing by 95.51%YoY.The improved performance primarily reflects successful product-mix optimization and cost-control initiatives,although asset-impairment charges resulted in earnings missing our RMB84.54mn profit forecast.Looking ahead,we expect profitability to recover further amid apotential industry recovery and the company’s structural adjustments&cost-efficiency measures.Maintain HOLD.
Mix optimization&cost control offset by asset impairment
Full-year revenue declined by 5.25%YoY,primarily due to decreased average steel selling prices.However,with iron ore index and coking coal settlement prices changing by+1.8%and-13.9%YoY respectively in 2025(Mysteel),coupled with effective cost-cutting measures and operational improvements,operating costs fell by 11.12%YoY.This drove the gross margin to 5.31%(+6.26pp YoY).Operating expenses totaled RMB2.74bn for the year(-3.29%YoY).In terms of production,in 2025,pig iron output rose by 5.14%YoY to 19.01mn tonnes;crude steel decreased by 5.75%YoY to 18.69mn tonnes.Finished products grew by 11.33%YoY to 20.44mn tonnes.The company recorded RMB925mn in asset-impairment losses for 2025,mainly from scrapping some production lines and assets related to blast furnace&converter projects,which negatively impacted earnings.
Maintain HOLD
Considering the steel industry’s cyclical recovery and the company’s product-mix optimization,we raise our gross profit assumptions for long steel and plate products while lowering our crude steel production&sales volume estimates.We forecast attributable net profit of RMB1,299/1,991/2,228mn for 2026/2027/2028,representing 14.26/16.60%upward revisions vs our prior 2026-2027 estimates.We project BVPS at RMB3.23/3.44/3.65.The stock has historically traded at 0.90x PB(five-year average).We maintain a50%premium to reflect improving profitability trends,with potential further upside from dual carbon policies.Our 2026E PB target of 1.35x,combined with the RMB/HKD exchange rate of 0.88 and three-month A/H premium of 75%(as of 26 March),yields target prices of RMB4.36/HKD2.83(previous:RMB3.93/HKD2.61 based on 1.3x 2025E PB).Maintain HOLD.

　　公司发布25年年报：营业收入775.2亿元，同比减少5.25%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润-2.09亿元，亏损同比收窄95.51%。公司亏损收窄主因品种改善与控本增效进度良好，但因资产计提减值，净利润不及我们预期（8454万元）。展望未来，行业景气度有望复苏，叠加公司持续调整盈利结构，控本增效，盈利能力有望持续回升。我们维持“持有”评级。
　　品种改善+费用控制良好，资产减值影响业绩
　　公司全年营收同比减少5.25%，主因钢材平均销售价格下行，但受益于2025年铁矿石指数与焦炭结算价分别同比+1.8%和-13.9%（Mysteel），且公司积极降本增效，提升营运质量，营业成本同比-11.12%，营业毛利率5.31%（同比+6.26pct）；期间费用27.38亿元（同比-3.29%）。品种结构上，公司生产生铁1,901万吨，同比增加5.14%，粗钢1,869万吨，同比减少5.75%，成品坯材2,044万吨，同比增加11.33%。此外，公司2025年全年资产减值损失达9.25亿元，主要原因系对部分产线、高炉与转炉连铸项目所涉及资产进行报废处置，对业绩造成一定负面影响。
　　钢铁：供给约束预期升温，行业盈利弹性或逐步释放
　　据华泰金属《双碳减排先行，钢铁或迎业绩弹性》（26-02-26），近期两会期间部分钢企接到自主减排通知或标志着双碳政策进入实质执行阶段，供给约束常态化或成为行业盈利修复核心驱动，2026年钢铁行业盈利或具备向上修复空间。当前行业景气度处于历史低位，叠加粗钢产量长期下行，下游需求结构持续优化，钢铁正进入供给收缩、政策驱动、利润弹性放大的复苏周期。在此背景下，公司产品结构持续优化，加大钢铁出口力度，叠加控本增效，盈利能力有望回升。
　　维持“持有”评级
　　考虑到钢铁行业景气度回升，且公司产品结构持续优化，我们上调了公司长材、板材产品的毛利，下调了粗钢产销量。我们测算公司26-28年归母净利分别为12.99、19.91、22.28亿元，26-27年同比上调14.26%/16.60%；BVPS为3.23/3.44/3.65元，公司近五年PB均值0.90X，我们维持溢价50%反映公司盈利向好趋势确立，后续双碳政策若持续进行或进一步改善行业和公司利润，26年PB取1.35X；并基于3月26日人民币与港元汇率0.88、近三个月A/H溢价率75%（26-3-26），A/H目标价4.36元/2.83港元（前值3.93元/2.61港元，基于25年PB1.3X），维持“持有”评级。
　　风险提示：大宗商品价格波动、政策执行不如预期、下游需求不及预期。