事件：公司发布2026年中报，2026H1实现营收22.49亿元（同比+3.28%），归母净利润达4.88亿元（同比+3.28%），扣非归母净利润达4.51亿元（同比+13.83%）。其中Q2单季营收11.00亿元（同比+2.32%），归母净利润2.12亿元（同比-2.80%）。公司整体业绩表现符合我们的预期。
　　污水处理主营业务量利齐升，权益类污水处理规模增加2.7万吨/日。截至26H1水务业务总规模为640.4万吨/日。权益类水务业务总规模615.2万吨/日，其中污水处理规模达530.7万吨/日，营收达16.46亿元（同比+5.50%），占总营收的7成左右，毛利率达42.37%（同比+1.52pct），主要系天津四厂来水量增加提升产能利用率、静海水厂完成水价上调增厚收益、以及随着德清扩建项目落地，权益类污水处理业务规模增加2.7万吨/日。
　　新能源供冷供热业务稳中有进，危废业务亏损收窄。截至26H1新能源供冷供热业务营收达1.05亿元（同比+1.14%），总服务面积696万平方米，供冷供热达20.8万GJ，主要分布在天津。危废业务营收达4327.8万元（同比-8.29%），毛利率为-30.48%（25H1为-51%），亏损显著收窄20.52pp，截至26H1，公司拥有包括处置能力共18.13万吨/年的4个项目，废物综合利用PAC产品量7.5万吨/年。
　　经营现金流显著改善，派息率有望逐步提升。26H1公司经营性现金流净额大幅改善至9.16亿元（同比+76.90%），主因回款显著提升，公司自25年底一次性收到天津市水务局的19.9亿元欠款后，26上半年又收到天津市水务局支付的部分历史欠款。26H1的Capex为3198.53万元，较25年同期5990.52万元下降46.61%。根据已发布的25年度利润分配公告，派息率为38.06%，较24年度派息率约33.07%提升4.99pct。随着公司当期在建项目陆续建成投运并释放产能，公司自由现金流或将更为充裕，未来有望逐步提升分红水平。
　　盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为9.2/9.8/10.3亿元，同比增速7.2%/6.5%/4.7%，当前股价对应的PE为10/9/9倍，按照38.06%分红比例计算，对应A股的股息率为4.0%/4.3%/4.4%，H股的股息率为7.0%/7.5%/7.8%，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：回款低于预期；污水处理量不及预期；新业务拓展进度不及预期。

Tianjin Capital Environmental Protection Group Company Limited (TCEPC) released its 2025 annual results: revenue was RMB4,760mn (-1.40% YoY) and attributable net profit (NP) was RMB862mn (+6.83% YoY), broadly in line with our estimate (RMB905mn). 4Q25 revenue/attributable NP were RMB1,313/160mn (-8.70/+23.78% YoY, +3.45/-29.90% QoQ). Affected by lower settled sewage volumes, the company's sewage treatment revenue declined (-3% YoY), but gross margin improved (+0.4pp YoY). As projects come on stream, we remain optimistic about the potential for both volume and tariff increases in sewage treatment. In 2025, the company received a one-off payment of RMB1,989mn from the Tianjin Municipal Water Authority to settle historical receivables, significantly boosting operating cash flow and supporting higher dividends. The dividend yield of H-shares is increasingly attractive; we estimate the 2026 H-share dividend yield could reach 6.4%. Maintain BUY for both A-/H-shares.
2025 sewage revenue -3% YoY; new business dragged GPM
Based in Tianjin and expanding nationwide, TCEPC's sewage treatment business generated RMB3.59bn in revenue in 2025 (-3.0% YoY), mainly due to lower settled volumes at some concession projects, in our view. However, benefiting from continued cost optimization, sewage treatment gross profit margin (GPM) rose 0.4pp YoY to 44.4%. Strategic new businesses showed mixed revenue trends in 2025, while GPMs fell across the board, dragging group GPM down by 1.5pp YoY to 38.3%. Specifically, the commissioning of the Junliangcheng entrusted project drove heating & cooling revenue up by 19.9% YoY to RMB190mn, but GPM declined by 3.0pp YoY to 14.0%. The hazardous waste business remained under pressure, with revenue -26.0% YoY to RMB110mn and GPM -4.9pp YoY to -18.0%.
2025 net operating cash flow up 139% YoY
In 2025, net operating cash flow rose 139% YoY to RMB3.30bn, mainly due to the RMB1,989mn one-off payment from the Tianjin Municipal Water Authority to settle historical receivables. Net cash outflow from investing activities increased 22% YoY to RMB910mn, mainly reflecting higher payments for project asset transfers and construction investments. TCEPC's dividend payout ratio (DPR) has risen annually since 2021, reaching 38.06% in 2025 (+5pp YoY), with A-/H-share dividend yields of 3.5/5.5% (based on DPS/year-end price). On our estimate, distributable cash flow in 2025 (net operating cash flow – capex – finance costs) could theoretically support a DPR of 242%. If the DPR reaches 40% in 2026 (+2pp YoY), the H-share dividend yield would correspond to 6.4% (based on the closing price as of 27 March 2026), suggesting attractive dividend yield.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 6.2/7.2% to RMB0.95/1.00bn and introduce our 2028 forecast of RMB1.04bn, implying 2026E EPS/BVPS of RMB0.60/6.93. The adjustment mainly reflects lower-than-expected sewage treatment revenue and GPM in 2025, leading us to reduce revenue and GPM assumptions. Considering: 1) the company's 2025-2027 attributable NP CAGR of 9% (our forecast) vs peer average of 2% (on Wind consensus, 8% excluding Capital Eco-Pro), and 2) industry-leading sewage treatment capacity utilization (90% in 2024, ranking first among peers), with further volume and price upside, we maintain our valuation premium and assign a 12.4x 2026E PE for its A-shares (previous: 12.2x), above its peers' average of 10.5x on Wind consensus (previous: 10.3x), for our target price of RMB7.46 (previous: RMB7.78). For H-shares, given fewer comparables, we refer to the company's average A/H premium of 61% over the past three months, arriving at a target price of HKD5.24 (previous: HKD5.00, based on a 70% A/H premium). Maintain BUY on both.
Risks: tariff adjustment in sewage treatment; intensified competition in hazardous waste; slower cash collection than we expect.