买 入华泰证券：Free Cash Flow and Dividend Payout Ratio Both On the Rise2026-04-16
摘要：We largely maintain our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts at RMB633/654mn (previous: RMB624/653mn) and add our 2028 estimate of RMB677mn. Comparable companies trade at an average 2026E PE of 15.9x on Wind consensus. Considering Shanghai Environment’s leading position in Shanghai’s solid waste and wastewater treatment sector with high-quality projects in hand, we apply a 2026E PE of 20.0x (previous: 20.8x), deriving our target price of RMB9.40 (previous: RMB9.57). Maintain BUY. 查看全文>>
Free Cash Flow and Dividend Payout Ratio Both On the Rise
发布时间：2026-04-16 来源：华泰证券
Shanghai Environment has posted 2025 revenue of RMB6.26bn(-0.58%YoY),an attributable net profit of RMB603mn(+6.07%YoY;2024 results restated),and arecurring net profit of RMB587mn(+5.66%YoY).The attributable net profit was in line with our estimate of RMB598mn.For 4Q25,revenue reached RMB1.69bn(-15.16%YoY),with the attributable net profit at RMB82.24mn(+15.35%YoY).The company has declared a2025 DPS of RMB0.135,representing apayout ratio of 30.13%(+6.73pp YoY).With the company’s core operations focused on solid waste and wastewater treatment,we note that it benefits from high-quality local utility assets in Shanghai that underpin its sound fundamentals.Both cash flow generation and dividend payout ratios have room for further expansion,in our view.Maintain BUY. Power generation rose 1.0%YoY with SH share at 44.3% The company’s municipal solid waste incineration projects(including entrusted operations)generated 5.55bn kWh of electricity in 2025,up by 1.0%YoY.On-grid power reached 4.64bn kWh(+1.0%YoY),maintaining an 83.6%grid-connection ratio(largely flat YoY).Total wastewater treatment volume was 331mn tonnes(-2.6%YoY).By region,Shanghai contributed 2.51bn kWh of power generation(-0.7%YoY),representing 44.3%of the total;on-grid power in Shanghai totaled 2.06bn kWh(-0.9%YoY),accounting for 45.2%of total on-grid volume.In 2025,the company added new waste incineration projects in Hebei and Gansu provinces vs previous year.With core assets concentrated in solid waste and wastewater treatment,the company delivered YoY growth in both power generation and on-grid power volumes in 2025.We expect stable project operations to contribute consistent revenue and cash flow. Target 2026E PE of 20x for target price of RMB9.40 We largely maintain our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts at RMB633/654mn(previous:RMB624/653mn)and add our 2028 estimate of RMB677mn.Comparable companies trade at an average 2026E PE of 15.9x on Wind consensus.Considering Shanghai Environment’s leading position in Shanghai’s solid waste and wastewater treatment sector with high-quality projects in hand,we apply a2026E PE of 20.0x(previous:20.8x),deriving our target price of RMB9.40(previous:RMB9.57).Maintain BUY.