MCC released its 1H26 results: 1H26 revenue was RMB175.907bn (-25.94% YoY), attributable NP was RMB2,326mn (-24.95% YoY), and recurring NP was RMB1,707mn (-26.61% YoY). In 2Q26, revenue was RMB83.703bn (-27.38% YoY), and attributable NP was RMB693mn (-53.53% YoY), below our expectation (2Q26E attributable NP of RMB1,529mn), due to continued pressure on the revenue side, lower gross margin, and a higher expense ratio. We believe that if macro demand recovers, MCC, a comprehensive construction leader, is well-positioned to benefit. Maintain OVERWEIGHT/BUY for the A-/H-shares.
1H26 revenue across segments strained
In 1H26, the company's overall gross margin was 9.80% (-0.29pp YoY). In 2Q26, gross margin was 11.12% (-0.30pp YoY). By segment, the main business (industrial construction, infrastructure)/core business (metallurgical construction, mining engineering)/specialized business (engineering services, new materials, high-end equipment, energy and environmental protection, digital applications) recorded revenue of RMB119.077/37.800/20.020bn, down 29.20/5.11/9.68% YoY; gross margins were 9.41/8.67/14.15%, +0.08/-0.98/-0.96pp YoY. Revenue across all segments was under pressure, while gross margins of industrial construction and infrastructure improved YoY.
Impairment losses narrowed YoY
In 1H26, the company's expense ratio was 6.38% (+0.43pp YoY), including sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios of 0.6/2.7/2.67/0.36%, +0.08/ +0.47/-0.17/+0.04pp YoY. We believe the overall increase in the expense ratio was attributable to the passive rise from declining revenue. In 1H26, total asset and credit impairment losses were RMB1,418mn, down by a significant 60.7% YoY owing to reduced impairment losses on accounts receivable and contract assets. As a result, 1H26 attributable NP margin was 1.32% (+0.02pp YoY). Net operating cash flow in 1H26 was -RMB22.801bn, with net outflows slightly widening YoY. The cash collection/payout ratio was 101.0/116.3% (+17.5/+24.1pp YoY). As of end-1H26, the debt-to-asset ratio was 77.1% (-1.8pp YoY) and the interest- bearing debt ratio was 10.1% (-5.0pp YoY).
Tepid new orders overall
In 1H26, the company signed new contracts worth RMB413.64bn, down 24.5% YoY. By segment: the core business signed RMB104.03bn in new contracts (-6.9% YoY), of which ferrous metallurgy engineering was RMB61.72bn (+23.0% YoY), which we attribute to the "anti-involution" push in the steel industry driving demand; non-ferrous metallurgy engineering was RMB15.62bn (-53.8% YoY); mining engineering was RMB26.69bn (-3.9% YoY). The main business signed RMB256.00bn in new contracts (-29.8% YoY), of which industrial construction/infrastructure signed RMB63.46/192.54bn, down 10.6/34.5% YoY; the specialized business signed RMB47.71bn (-22.6% YoY) in new contracts.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the low earnings base in 2H25, we maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecast at RMB5.9/5.9/6.3bn. The average 2026E PE of comparable A-/H-share companies on Wind consensus is 8.39x/4.07x. Given the company's thorough impairment provision and more diversified business mix, we assign 11x/5x 2026E PE for its A-/H-shares, for our target price of RMB3.08/ HKD1.63 (previous: RMB3.36/HKD1.92)
Risks: slow infrastructure investment growth, disappointing property-sector recovery, and sharp declines in resource product prices.

　　中国中冶2026年H1实现营收1759.07亿元（yoy-25.94%），归母净利23.26亿元（yoy-24.95%），扣非净利17.07亿元（yoy-26.61%）。其中Q2实现营收837.03亿元（yoy-27.38%），归母净利6.93亿元（yoy-53.53%），低于我们预期（v.s.2Q26E归母净利预期15.29亿元），主要因收入端继续承压以及毛利率承压、费用率上行。我们认为未来若宏观需求修复，公司作为综合建筑龙头有望受益，维持A/H股“增持”/“买入”评级。
　　上半年各业务收入端整体承压，基建/工业建筑毛利率提升
　　1H26公司整体毛利率9.80%，同比-0.29pct；其中2Q26毛利率11.12%，同比-0.30pct。分业务看，主体业务（工业建筑、基本建设）/核心业务（冶金建设、矿山工程）/特色业务（工程服务、新型材料、高端装备、能源环保、数智应用）分别实现营收1,190.77/378.00/200.20亿元，同比-29.20%/-5.11%/-9.68%；毛利率9.41%/8.67%/14.15%，同比+0.08/-0.98/-0.96pct。各分项业务收入端均有所承压，而工业建筑、基建毛利率同比提升。
　　减值损失同比减少，负债率同比下行
　　1H26公司期间费用率6.38%，同比+0.43pct；其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为0.6%/2.7%/2.67%/0.36%，同比+0.08/+0.47/-0.17/+0.04pct，我们认为费用率整体上行主要因收入下滑致费用率被动抬升。1H26公司资产和信用减值损失合计14.18亿元，同比明显减少60.7%，主要因应收账款和合同资产减值损失减少。综合影响下，1H26归母净利率1.32%、同比+0.02pct。1H26公司经营性净现金流-228.01亿元、净流出同比小幅扩大；1H26收/付现比101.0%/116.3%、同比+17.5/+24.1pct。1H26末公司资产负债率77.1%，同比-1.8pct；有息负债率10.1%、同比-5.0pct。
　　新签订单整体承压，黑色冶金订单同比增长
　　1H26公司新签合同额4,136.4亿元、同比-24.5%。分业务看：核心业务新签1,040.3亿元、同比-6.9%，其中黑色冶金工程617.2亿元、同比+23.0%，我们认为主要受益于钢铁行业"反内卷"推动需求景气；有色冶金工程156.2亿元、同比-53.8%；矿山工程266.9亿元、同比-3.9%。主体业务新签2,560.0亿元、同比-29.8%，其中工业建筑/基本建设分别新签634.6/1,925.4亿元，同比-10.6%/-34.5%；特色业务新签477.1亿元、同比-22.6%。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到2025下半年盈利基数较低，我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测59/59/63亿元，A/H股可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为8.39x/4.07x。考虑到公司减值计提充分，业务结构更为多元化，给予公司26年A/H股11/5倍PE估值，对应A/H目标价为3.08元/1.63港元（前值3.36元/1.92港元）。
　　风险提示：基建投资增速放缓，地产恢复不及预期，资源价格超预期下跌。

　　事件：8月30日公司公告1H2026实现营收1759.1亿元，同比-25.9%，归母、扣非净利润23.3、17.1亿元，同比-24.9%、-26.6%。Q2单季度营收837.0亿元，同比-27.4%，归母、扣非净利润6.9、2.2亿元，同比-53.5%、-70.0%。
　　业务结构深化调整，核心业务订单占比回升。分业务来看，1H26公司核心业务（黑色冶金、有色冶金、矿山）、主体业务（工业建筑、基本建设）、特色业务（工程服务、新型材料、高端装备、能源环保、数智应用）分别实现营收378.0、1190.8、200.2亿元，同比分别-5.1%、-29.2%、-9.7%，毛利率分别为8.7%、9.4%、14.2%，同比分别-0.98、+0.08、-0.96pct；分地区看，国内、海外分别实现收入1593.3、165.7亿元，同比分别-28.57%、+14.46%，毛利率分别为9.7%、10.6%，同比分别-0.09、-3.91pct。订单方面，1H26公司新签订单4136.4亿元，同比-24.5%。其中，核心、主体、特色业务分别实现新签订单1040.3、2560.0、477.1亿元，同比分别-6.9%、-29.8%、-22.6%。
　　减值损失大幅缩减带动利润率改善，经营现金流净流出略有增加。公司毛利率为9.80%，同比-0.3pct，1H2026期间费用率同比+0.43pct至6.38%，其中销售、管理、研发、财务费用率同比分别+0.08、+0.47、-0.16、+0.04pct，1H2026公司资产及信用减值损失为14.18亿元，同比少损失21.9亿元，综合影响下净利率同比+0.02pct至1.32%。1H2026公司CFO净额为-228.0亿元，同比-8.16亿元，收现比、付现比同比分别+17.50pct、+24.05pct，至100.98%、116.26%。
　　投资建议：自去年末剥离非核心业务后，今年公司财务结构不断优化，带息负债同比减少488亿元，较年初-37.9%。继续看好公司在轻装上阵后经营能效持续提升，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为54.7、57.6、63.8亿元，对应PE为10.0、9.5、8.6倍，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：项目推进不及预期，订单承接不及预期，宏观经济波动。

MCC has posted 1Q26 revenue of RMB92,204mn(-24.59%YoY,-23.35%QoQ),attributable net profit(NP)of RMB1,633mn(+1.59%YoY,+161.65%QoQ),and recurring NP of RMB1,491mn(-7.19%YoY).Given the company's divestment of non-core business assets and the fading impact of the real estate sector,we expect it to evolve into amore streamlined operation.Its 1Q NP has reversed the previous declining trend and return back to growth.Maintain OVERWEIGHT/BUY for A-/H-shares.
Reversal of impairment loss drives up attributable NP YoY
For 1Q26,MCC's overall gross margin was 8.60%(-0.24pp YoY)and the overall expense ratio was 6.01%(+0.42pp YoY),with the sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratio at 0.61/2.90/2.01/0.50%(+0.07/+0.42/-0.28/+0.22pp YoY).Financial expenses increased by 33.49%YoY,which we attribute mainly to higher exchange losses.The company achieved an impairment reversal of RMB170mn in 1Q26,compared with an impairment charge of RMB920mn in 1Q25.As aresult,attributable NP margin for 1Q26 was 1.77%(+0.46pp YoY).
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecast at RMB5.9/5.9/6.3bn.Given the company's full impairment provision and reduced disruption from the divestment of its real estate business,we maintain our 2026E PE valuation of 12/6x for its A-/H-shares,above their peers'averages of 8.6/3.8x on Wind consensus,for our target price of RMB3.36/HKD1.92(previous:RMB3.36/HKD1.90,due to exchange rate fluctuations).
Risks:Slow infrastructure investment growth,disappointing property-sector recovery,and sharp declines in resource product prices.

　　中国中冶发布一季报，2026Q1实现营收922.04亿元（yoy-24.59%、qoq-23.35%），归母净利16.33亿元（yoy+1.59%、qoq+161.65%），扣非净利14.91亿元（yoy-7.19%）。考虑到公司剥离非核心业务资产，地产业拖累减弱，后续有望实现轻装上阵，Q1净利润已扭转下滑趋势实现增长，维持A/H股“增持”/“买入”评级。
　　减值冲回带动归母净利润同比提升
　　26Q1公司整体毛利率8.60%，同比-0.24pct，期间费用率为6.01%，同比+0.42pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率0.61%/2.90%/2.01%/0.50%，同比+0.07/+0.42/-0.28/+0.22pct，财务费用同比增长33.49%，预计主要是汇兑损失增加所致。26Q1实现减值冲回1.7亿元，去年同期减值计提9.2亿元，综合影响下，26Q1归母净利率1.77%，同比+0.46pct。
　　资产负债结构同比优化率，经营性现金净流出减少
　　26Q1末公司资产负债率为77.48%，同比-1.79pct，较年初降低0.66pct，有息负债率12.2%，同比-4.89pct，较年初增加1.58pct。26Q1经营活动净现金流为-251亿元，同比少流出6.3亿元，收现比为108.8%，同比+22.4pct，付现比133.2%，同比+30.0pct。26Q1末公司应收票据及应收账款/合同资产/应付票据及应付账款/合同负债分别为2353/1973/3982/582亿元，较25年末-135/+78/-240/+20亿元。
　　冶金工程新签快速增长，海外保持较高景气
　　26Q1公司新签合同额2061亿元，同比-10.6%。分业务，核心业务冶金和矿山工程新签496.7亿元，同比+19.3%；主体业务基建、房建等工程合计新签1290亿元，同比-16.1%，其中工业建筑保持4.4%增长，其他工程承压；工程服务、新材料、高端装备、能源环保、数智应用等特色业务新签228.4亿元，同比-26.0%。分地区，海外新签合同额131.9亿元，同比+9.6%。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测为59/59/63亿元。A/H股可比公司26年Wind一致预期PE均值为8.6/3.8x，考虑到公司减值计提充分、地产业务剥离后扰动减少，维持给予公司26年A/H股12/6倍PE估值，对应A/H目标价为3.36元/1.92港元（前值3.36元/1.90港元，汇率波动影响）。
　　风险提示：基建投资增速放缓，地产恢复不及预期，资源价格超预期下跌。