事件：2026年4月22日晚，中海油服发布2026年第一季度报告。2026Q1，公司实现营收112.96亿元，同比+4.6%，环比-26.8%；实现归母净利润8.56亿元，同比-3.6%，环比+35.3%；扣非后归母净利润8.36亿元，同比-12.9%，环比+16.7%。实现基本每股收益0.18元，同比-5.3%，环比+28.6%。
　　点评：
　　受财务费用显著增加影响，公司Q1利润同比下滑。26Q1公司归母净利润同比下降3.6%至8.56亿元，扣非净利润降幅达12.9%，主因财务费用同比大幅上涨148%至4.27亿元（去年同期1.72亿元）。Q1公司投资活动现金流出同比增加165%，主要源于“取得其他投资所支付的现金”达20亿元，显示公司正加大资本性投入。筹资活动净流入21.9亿元，源于发行债券49.93亿元，用于优化债务结构，偿还债务同比显著上升，利息支出同比下降，反映债务置换节奏加快。
　　公司经营业务稳健。钻井：受作业计划及修理安排影响，Q1公司钻井平台日历天使用率87.8%，同比减幅1.7pct。其中，自升式钻井平台使用率87.3%，同比减幅3.9pct；半潜式钻井平台使用率89.3%，同比增幅5.5pct。高价值半潜式平台项目有序运营贡献利润。油田技术服务：板块主要业务线作业量和收入规模同比有所增长。船舶：公司船舶服务作业天数同比增幅4.4%。物探：受市场布局和项目作业计划影响，二维采集作业量显著抬升，三维作业量显著下降，海底地震作业量稳定。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：我们预测公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为42.77、45.86和46.45亿元，同比增速分别为11.3%、7.2%、1.3%，EPS（摊薄）分别为0.90、0.96和0.97元/股，按照2026年4月22日收盘价对应的PE分别为16.66、15.53和15.34倍。我们认为，考虑到公司未来持续海外拓展和国内工作量托底，2026-2028年公司业绩有望持续增长，维持对公司的“买入”评级。
　　风险因素：宏观经济波动和油价下行风险；需求恢复不及预期风险；上游资本开支不及预期风险；地缘政治风险；汇率波动风险。

　　业绩简评
　　2026年4月22日公司披露2026年一季报，2026Q1年公司实现营收112.96亿元，同比增加4.6%；实现归母净利润8.56亿元，同比减少3.6%。
　　经营分析
　　国际地缘政治动荡，公司钻井平台作业天数同比下降。26年一季度，受到美伊冲突带来的霍尔木兹海峡封锁等国际地缘政治剧烈动荡的影响，以及公司钻井平台作业计划及修理安排的影响，公司自升式平台作业3641天，同比减少192天；半潜式平台作业1125天，同比增加69天。26年Q1自升式平台日历天使用率87.3%，同比下降3.9pcts；半潜式平台日历天使用率89.3%，同比增加5.5pcts。后续随着地缘冲突趋于缓和，钻井平台作业天数及日费率有望得到改善与提升。
　　公司油田技术服务等业务稳步增长。面对国际油价剧烈震荡的复杂形式，公司持续强化深水及低碳技术能力，各业务板块协同发力，核心竞争力不断增强。26年Q1公司油田技术服务主要业务线作业量和收入规模同比有所增长；船舶服务作业共21521天，同比增加900天；物探采集和工程勘察服务同比基本保持稳定。
　　盈利预测、估值与评级
　　我们预计公司2026-2028年实现营收524.63/556.48/586.55亿元，归母净利润42.43/51.01/59.69亿元，EPS为0.89/1.07/1.25，当前股价对应PE估值为16.79/13.97/11.94倍，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示
　　油气能源价格及油公司资本开支下降风险，当前美伊冲突对公司在中东地区业务带来的地缘政治风险，自然灾害风险，海外业务发展不及预期风险，汇率波动风险。

　　投资要点
　　事件：1）公司近日与宁德时代签署船舶电动化合作意向书。双方将基于海洋石油支持船作业场景需求，共同开发适配海洋工程、运输作业的电动化船舶，为海上油田作业提供更安全、可持续的新能源解决方案。公司以科技创新引领产业创新，形成多项较为完备的能源服务技术体系，主流技术覆盖度稳步提升。2）2025年公司营业收入同比+4.1%，归母净利润同比+22.5%。2025年，公司实现营业总收入503亿元（同比+4.1%）；实现归母净利润38.4亿元（同比+22.5%）。其中2025Q4，公司实现营业总收入154亿元（同比+5.5%，环比+33.8%）；实现归母净利润6.3亿元（同比-8.7%，环比-49%）。公司业绩符合我们预期。
　　公司四大业务板块表现亮眼：1）钻井服务：2025年，板块实现营业收入149亿元（同比+12.8%），毛利率14.3%（同比+6.8pct）。公司始终以高水平供给精准适配市场变化，平台使用率实现同比增长，板块收入迈上新台阶。基于良好的作业衔接，2025年公司钻井平台作业日数为19360天（同比+10.6%）。另外公司平台日费同比提升，自升式、半潜式钻井平台日费7.4、17.5万美元/天，同比-1.3%、+22.4%。2）油田技术服务：2025年，板块实现营业收入275亿元（同比-0.6%），毛利率22.6%（同比-0.3pct）。“璇玑”获评2025年度国家科学技术进步奖；海恒“高性能合成基钻井液体系”获2025年OTC巴西新技术大奖，推动公司核心自主技术规模化与高端化应用取得重要突破。3）船舶服务：2025年，板块实现营业收入52亿元（同比+9%），毛利率7.3%（同比+1.5pct）。公司始终聚焦船舶资源池建设，全面提升资源利用效率与运营效益，运营管理船舶规模持续增长，利用南海、渤海等地政策优势，推动国内船舶“走出去”，成功实施全球首次十万吨级超大型浮式生产平台的海上整体浮装和拖航作业。4）物探服务：2025年，板块实现营业收入27亿元（同比+0.9%），毛利率3.6%（同比+1.5pct）。公司主动优化产能布局，聚焦高回报业务，以“海经”系统和“海脉”装备为核心，构建起覆盖研发、制造、应用全环节的完整产业链，“海经”拖缆地震成套装备持续投入生产应用，“海脉”在渤海区域多次刷新国内OBN生产作业纪录，进一步巩固公司抗风险能力与盈利稳定性。
　　盈利预测与投资评级：基于公司项目开展&钻井平台交付情况，我们调整公司2026-2027年归母净利润分别至45、48亿元（此前为47、50亿元），新增2028年归母净利润预测值为54亿元。按2026年4月3日收盘价，对应PE分别17、16、14倍。考虑地缘冲突下，油价中枢抬升，油服行业持续高景气，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：宏观经济波动和油价下行风险；地缘政治风险；汇率波动风险；作业进展不及预期的风险。

　　投资逻辑
　　1、全球油气资本开支下滑，结构性调整海上资本开支上升
　　2023年以来全球上游油气勘探开发资本开支达峰并呈现下滑趋势，但是海上油气资本开支维持上升的趋势，北美页岩油及其他陆上油气的资本开支在近几年略有下降。在油气资本开支整体下滑的背景下，海上资本开支占比从2022年的32%增长至2025年的36%，相应的北美页岩油资本开支占比从2022年的24%下降至2025年的20%。美国三家龙头油气公司的CAPEX从2021年的271.92亿美元增长至2025年的531.02亿美元，CAGR达18.2%。
　　2、结构性转变的主要原因在于海上油田的高效低成本
　　油气资本开支的结构性转变主要是海上油田的开发成本较低，且回报周期及资源量较为可观。从当前全球油田的成本曲线来看，中东地区陆上及海上油田开发成本较低，平均盈亏平衡布油价格分别为33美元/桶及40美元/桶，其次成本较低的是页岩油和深水油田，平均盈亏平衡布油价格分别为47美元/桶和48美元/桶，海上油田将成为未来油公司重点投入的方向之一。
　　3、海上油服景气度上行带来钻井平台日费率持续提升
　　随着近年海上油气资本开支的高景气度，海上钻井平台的日费率及使用率也随之持续提升：钻井船日费率从2022年12月的27.9万美元增长至2025年的41.0万美元。半潜式钻井平台2025年使用率及日费率均有所回升，半潜式平台日费率达到30.2万美元，同比+33.6%；使用率从42.3%回升至57.1%。自升式钻井平台日费率及使用率持续提升，日费率从2022年底8.76万美元增长至2025年底11.01万美元，使用率从75.7%增长至83.8%。
　　盈利预测、估值和评级
　　我们预测2026/2027/2028年公司实现营业收入524.63/556.48/586.55亿元，同比+4.3%/+6.1%/+5.4%，归母净利润42.43/51.01/59.69亿元，同比+10.5%/+20.2%/+17.0%，对应EPS为0.89/1.07/1.25元。给予公司2026年22倍估值，目标股价19.56元，首次覆盖，给予公司“买入”评级。
　　风险提示
　　油气能源价格及油公司资本开支下降风险，当前美伊冲突对公司在中东地区业务带来的地缘政治风险，自然灾害风险，海外业务发展不及预期风险，汇率波动风险。

　　业绩稳健增长：中海油服2025年全年实现营业收入502.8亿元，同比增长4.1%，归母净利润38.4亿元，同比增长22.5%，业绩实现较大幅度增长。从盈利水平看，全年综合毛利率17.4%（同比+1.7pct），净利率7.6%（同比+1.1pct）。全年四费率7.1%（同比+0.6pct），其中主要增加来自财务费用率，主要原因是2025年汇兑损失较多。
　　钻井服务板块回升明显：公司2025年业绩增长的主要动力来自钻井服务板块的利润提升。2025年板块收入149亿元，同比增加16.9亿元，推动板块毛利达到21.3亿元，同比增加11.5亿元。收入提升的主要原因是2025年钻井平台综合利用率提升到91.0%（同比+7.6pct），同时日收入提升到9.6万美元/天（同比+0.8万美元/天）。
　　看好高油价中枢下增长潜力：26年3月以来由于地缘局势问题，原油价格大幅上涨。虽然我们难以判断中东局势的变化，但即使冲突很快结束，冲突对于中东地区的原油生产与石化装置都已造成破坏。后续全球范围内的石油开采、库存物流、生产加工等各环节都需要不短的时间来恢复正常水平。因此我们认为2026年油价中枢显著提升已基本成为定局。同时，我们认为地缘冲突将进一步加强全球能源自主的亿元，从而提升海上油气资源的资本投入预期。
　　基于公司25年业绩情况以及油服行业景气度，我们调整了公司钻井平台使用率预测以及其他业务规模预测。我们预测公司2026-2027年每股收益EPS分别为0.93、1.00元（原预测0.88、0.94元），并添加2028年EPS预测为1.04元。按照可比公司2026年22倍市盈率，对应目标价20.46元，维持买入评级。
　　风险提示
　　油价大幅波动风险；石油公司资本开支不及预期；能源转型快于预期；技术进步不及预期；开工率不高导致资产减值的风险。

COSL has reported 1Q26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)of RMB11,296/856mn(+4.62/-3.55%YoY,-26.78/+35.32%QoQ).We believe YoY revenue growth was driven by steady increases in domestic and overseas drilling segment revenue.Considering offshore oil&gas development is likely to enter ahigh-cycle period over the next two years,we expect the company's drilling platforms,as core equipment,to fully benefit and continue contributing incremental earnings.Maintain OVERWEIGHT on both A-/H-shares.
Gross margin improved;FX losses lift financial expense ratio
For 1Q26,gross margin was 18.42%,up by 0.79/2.88pp YoY/QoQ,which we attribute mainly to the continued operation of high day-rate drilling projects and improved profitability in oilfield technical services.The overall expense ratio was 8.51%(+1.86/+0.13pp YoY/QoQ).Specifically,the sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios was 0.01/2.49/2.23/3.78%(flat/-0.10/-0.22/+2.18pp YoY,flat/+0.07/-1.57/+1.64pp QoQ).We believe the YoY increase in the expense ratio was mainly due to FX losses,which drove up the financial expense ratio.
Deepwater drilling upcycle to unlock potential
In 1Q26,semi-submersible drilling rigs delivered strong operational performance.The decline in total operating days was chiefly due to scheduling and maintenance arrangements for certain platforms.Total operating days for drilling rigs were 4,766 days(-2.5%YoY),including 3,641 days for jack-up rigs(-5.0%YoY)and 1,125 days for semi-submersible rigs(-6.5%YoY).Calendar-day utilization reached 87.8%(-1.7pp YoY),including 87.3%for jack-up rigs(-3.9pp YoY)and 89.3%for semi-submersible rigs(+5.5pp YoY).We believe strengthening global energy security demand and the development of deepwater unconventional oil&gas fields(e.g.,in Brazil)could support recovery in offshore E&P capex.The deepwater drilling market is entering an upcycle,and the company's semi-submersible rigs,with strong competitiveness,are poised to continue benefiting,in our view.
Green vessels empower offshore energy development
In 1Q26,the vessel services segment remained relatively stable.Total operating days reached 21,521 days(+4.4%YoY),including 10,329/6,182/722/252/4,036 days for anchor handling tug supply vessels/platform supply vessels/multi-purpose vessels/well intervention support vessels/standby vessels(+2.5/+6.3/+55.3/+25.4/-0.7%YoY).The company continues injecting clean energy into offshore development."Offshore Oil 545"and"Offshore Oil 551"were among the first in China to adopt an"LNG+energy storage battery"power system,achieving coordinated improvements in energy efficiency,emissions reduction,and operational quality.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We largely maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecast at RMB4,901/5,615/5,956mn,implying EPS of RMB1.03/1.18/1.25.We believe that as aleading offshore oil&gas equipment provider likely to benefit from adrilling market recovery,the company deserves avaluation premium.We thus value the A-shares at 17x 2026E PE,above the peers'average of 13x on iFind consensus,for our target price of RMB17.51(previous:RMB18.54 on 18x 2026E PE).Based on the average H-/A-share valuation ratio of c51%over the past month,we maintain 9x 2026E PE for H-shares,with HKD/RMB at 0.88,for our target price of HKD10.53.
Risks:FX volatility,trade policy uncertainty,oil price volatility.

The company’s net profit slipped 4% YoY to RMB856m in 1Q26, mainly on mark-to-market FX loss arising from intra-group FX exposure. Its operating profit actually grew about 20% YoY excluding FX loss. We expect much higher earnings in subsequent quarters as 1Q is usually a low season for the company. We trim our 2026-28 earnings forecast by 3-6% after post-results adjustments. We reiterate our BUY calls with target price of its H shares lifted slightly to HK$10.75.
Key Factors for Rating
In 1Q26, the company’s turnover grew 5% YoY. Its gross profit grew 8% YoY as gross margin improved from 17.6% in 1Q25 to 18.2% in 1Q26. However, net finance expense jumped 1.5x YoY to RMB427m as the company recorded an RMB303m mark-to-market FX loss on intra-group FX exposure. RMB appreciated 1.4% against US$ and 3% against EUR throughout 1Q26.
Excluding the FX loss, the company’s operating profit actually grew about 20% YoY. The growth mainly came from the drilling and well services segments.
Partly owing to maintenance, the total operating days of its drilling rigs dropped 2.5% YoY in 1Q26. In which, the operating days of jack-ups dropped 5% YoY. That of its semi-subs increased 6.5% YoY mainly on the contribution from NH8 which started operations in Brazil in mid-2025.
We expect the company to see stronger earnings in subsequent quarters as 1Q is usually a low season in a year. 2Q and 3Q are normally the peak seasons.
We trim our 2026-28 earnings forecasts after slightly lowering our assumptions on the operating days of its drilling rigs and factor in higher depreciation charge. We also assume an FX loss of RMB123m for 2026. Despite the cuts, we still expect 16% YoY EPS growth in 2026.
Key Risks for Rating
Significant negative impact from the war in the Middle East.
Lack of progress in developing overseas market.
Valuation
We raise our target price for its H shares slight from HK$10.70 to HK$10.75. While we trim our earnings forecast and maintain our target valuation at 0.9x 2026E P/B, the recent appreciation of RMB against HK$ lift the target price in HK$ terms.
We lower our target price for its A shares from RMB19.41 to RMB18.64. We still base our target price on the company’s 3-month average A-H premium which has narrowed from 106% to 99% since late March.

　　中海油服发布一季报，2026年一季度实现营收112.96亿元，同比/环比+4.62%/-26.78%，归母净利8.56亿元，同比/环比-3.55%/+35.32%。公司一季度营收同比增长主要系钻井板块国内外收入稳步向上。考虑到未来两年海上油气开发有望迈入高景气周期，公司的钻井平台作为核心钻采设备或将充分受益，持续贡献业绩增量，A/H股维持“增持”评级。
　　26Q1毛利率同环比均提升，汇兑损失抬升财务费用率
　　26Q1公司毛利率18.42%，同比+0.79pp、环比+2.88pp，同环比均改善，我们认为或主要受益于公司钻井平台高日费项目的持续运营以及油田技术服务板块盈利能力的提升。2026年一季度公司期间费用率8.51%，同比+1.86pp、环比+0.13pp。其中销售费用率0.01%，同环比持平；管理费用率2.49%，同比-0.10pp、环比+0.07pp；研发费用率2.23%，同比-0.22pp、环比-1.57pp；财务费用率3.78%，同比+2.18pp、环比+1.64pp。公司期间费率同比上升，主要系汇兑损失影响，财务费用率增加。
　　半潜平台运营亮眼，深海钻井景气上行助力潜能释放
　　26Q1公司半潜钻井平台运营表现较为亮眼，整体平台作业天数下降主要系部分平台作业计划及修理安排影响。26Q1公司钻井平台累计作业4766天，同比-2.5%。其中，自升式钻井平台作业3641天，同比-5.0%；半潜式钻井平台作业1125天，同比-6.5%。使用率方面，钻井平台日历天使用率达到87.8%，同比-1.7pp，其中自升式钻井平台日历天使用率为87.3%，同比-3.9pp，半潜式钻井平台日历天使用率为89.3%，同比+5.5pp。我们认为，全球能源安全诉求不断强化，以巴西为代表的深水非常规油气区块开发活跃，有望带动海洋油气资本开支持续回暖，深海钻井市场景气上行，公司半潜钻井平台竞争力突出，有望持续受益。
　　船舶服务稳健运营，绿色船舶赋能海洋能源开发
　　26Q1公司船舶服务板块业务保持相对稳定。26Q1公司船舶服务业务累计作业21521天，同比增加4.4%。其中三用工作船作业10329天，同比增加2.5%；平台供应船作业6182天，同比增加6.3%；多用船作业722天，同比大幅增加55.3%；修井支持船作业252天，同比增加25.4%；油田守护船作业4036天，同比减少0.7%。公司持续为海洋能源开发注入清洁动力，“海洋石油545”和“海洋石油551”船于国内率先采用“LNG+储能电池”动力模式，实现节能、减排与运营质量的协同提升。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们基本维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测为49.01亿元、56.15亿元、59.56亿元，对应EPS分别为1.03/1.18/1.25元。可比公司2026年iFind一致预期PE为13倍，考虑到公司作为海上油气装备行业龙头，有望充分受益于钻井平台市场需求的修复，应享有一定估值溢价，给予公司26年A股17倍PE，对应A股目标价为17.51元（前值18.54元，对应26年PE18倍）。参考过去1个月公司H/A股估值折价率均值约51%，维持给予公司26年H股9倍PE，港元汇率取0.88，维持H股目标价10.53港元。
　　风险提示：汇率波动风险，贸易政策波动风险，油价波动风险。

COSL has recorded 2025 revenue of RMB50.3bn,up by 4.10%YoY,and an attributable NP of RMB3.8bn,up by 22.47%YoY.In 4Q25,the company posted revenue of RMB15.4bn,up by 5.39%YoY and 33.77%QoQ.The attributable NP was RMB632mn,down by 8.65%YoY and 49.23%QoQ.For 2025,the attributable NP was below our previous estimate of RMB4.2bn,mainly because the global drilling market showed structural divergence in 2025,and the overall recovery was weaker and slower than expected.Looking to 2026,we think that offshore oil and gas development demand may improve at the margin,which should lift the drilling rig market.COSL should benefit fully.Maintain OVERWEIGHT on COSL-A and COSL-H.
Higher day rates and utilization drove revenue growth
By segment,the company’s steady revenue growth in 2025 mainly came from higher drilling revenue.1)Drilling services revenue reached RMB14.9bn,up by 12.8%YoY.2)Well services revenue was RMB27.5bn,down by 0.6%YoY.3)Marine support services revenue was RMB5.2bn,up by 9.0%YoY.This was mainly driven by the continued expansion of the vessel fleet and anotable increase in operating days for oilfield standby vessels and platform supply vessels.4)Geophysical acquisition and surveying services revenue was RMB2.7bn,up by 0.9%YoY.
GPM rose notably in 2025,FX losses lifted financial expense
In 2025,the company’s gross margin(GPM)rose to 17.39%,up by 1.69 pp YoY.By region,the GPM in the domestic market increased by 1.0 pp YoY,while the overseas GPM increased by 4.1 pp YoY,supported by high-day-rate projects in the North Sea.The operating expense ratio was 7.10%,up by 0.59 pp YoY.Specifically,the selling expense ratio was 0.01%,flat YoY.The administrative expense ratio was 2.12%,down by 0.22 pp YoY;the R&D expense ratio was 2.99%,up by 0.12 pp YoY;and the financial expense ratio was 1.98%,up by 0.69 pp YoY,mainly due to FX losses.
Earnings estimates and valuation
We broadly maintain our forecasts for attributable NP at RMB4.9bn for 2026 and RMB5.6bn for 2027,and we forecast RMB6.0bn for 2028,with EPS of RMB1.03,RMB1.18,and RMB1.25.Comparable companies trade at 16x 2026E PE on iFind consensus.Given the company’s leading position in offshore oil and gas equipment and its strong leverage to arecovery in drilling rig demand,we think that it deserves avaluation premium.We apply 18x 2026E PE to the A-share,for our target price of RMB18.54(previously RMB16.05,on 15x 2026E PE).Based on the average H/A valuation discount of about 49%over the past month,we apply a9x 2026E PE to COSL-H,for our target price of HKD10.53(previously HKD8.16,on 7x 2026E PE).
Risks:exchange rate volatility,trade policy volatility,and oil price volatility.

While the company’s net profit of RMB3,842m (up 22% YoY) appeared to miss our forecast, its core earnings were actually in line after removing impairments and FX loss (total RMB623m). We expect its earnings to grow 23% YoY in 2026 with drilling and well services segments to be the key growth drivers. While we trim our 2026-27 earnings forecasts by 5-6%, we reiterate our BUY call on its H shares with target price lifted to HK$10.70.
Key Factors for Rating
Its drilling segment was the key growth driver in 2025, with segmental operating profit jumped almost 3x YoY to RMB1.5bn, mainly on the improved performance of its semi-subs. The number of operating days of its semi-subs surged 27% YoY as operations in offshore China normalised after being hard hit by typhoons in 2024. The utilisation of a few high-end rigs in overseas market also improved. In addition, the average day rate of its semi-subs surged 22% YoY as the four rigs earnings high rates in Norway saw full-period contribution. Another one also started operations in Brazil with high day rate in 2H25.
It was partly negated by the 6% YoY decline in operating profit of the well services segment (to RMB4.2bn), its largest profit contributor. The segmental revenue slipped 1% YoY and segmental operating margin decreased 0.8ppt YoY.
We expect its earnings to grow 23% YoY in 2026 on improved performance from both drilling and well services segments. We assume the operating profit of the drilling segment to grow 6% YoY on further improvement in operating days and average day rate of its semi-subs. We also expect the operating profit of its well services to grow 6% YoY on slightly higher turnover. Besides, we assume no more impairments and FX loss and its interest expense to drop 42% YoY.
The company now has three jack-ups operating in Saudi Arabia and two in Kuwait and they are so far not affected by the war. Besides, the company provides integrated services in Iraq with 23 sets of equipment with three workover equipment suspended. So far, the impact of the war in the Middle East is limited.
Key Risks for Rating
Significant negative impact from the war in the Middle East.
Lack of progress in developing overseas markets.
Valuation
We raise our target price for its H shares from HK$9.70 to HK$10.70 as we roll over target valuation from 0.9x 2025E P/B to 0.9x 2026E P/B.
We increase our target price for its A shares from RMB19.21 to RMB19.41. We still based it on its average 3-month A-H premium, which has narrowed from 117% to 106% since late October 2025.