The company's 1H26 revenue/attributable net profit(NP)/recurring attributable NP were RMB10,526/369/367mn(+2.2/-14.0/-13.0%YoY).For 2Q26,revenue/attributable NP/recurring attributable NP were RMB5,149/145/144mn(+3.3/-4.9/-3.6%YoY).Revenue maintained steady growth in 1H26,but net profit came under YoY pressure.This was partly due to the company's supplementary payment of certain preferential taxes and late-payment charges in 1H26.In addition,as volume-based procurement(VBP)has been implemented for traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)decoction pieces and TCM formula granules,GPM of related products declined notably YoY,leading to revenue growth without profit growth.We are positive on earnings improvement driven by product mix optimization,cost reduction and efficiency enhancement,as well as policy impact digestion.Maintain BUY.
Pharmaceutical wholesale and manufacturing earnings fell
For 1H26,wholesale revenue/attributable NP were RMB7,812/256mn(-3.0/-5.4%YoY).Earnings came under pressure mainly due to VBP-driven price cuts,hospital-side cost control,and the company's control over sales to risky customers.For 1H26,retail revenue/attributable NP were RMB2,153/69mn(+31.0/+0.3%YoY).Benefiting from the prescription outflow policy,DTP revenue increased by 47.1%YoY to RMB1,658mn,accounting for about 77%of retail revenue.As DTP specialty drugs and prescription drugs have lower GPM and ahigher sales volume contribution,retail net profit grew slower than revenue.The company accelerated terminal outlet expansion through afranchise model and improved store operation quality.In 1H26,it opened 25 new stores,including 20 franchised stores,and closed 12 stores.As of end-1H26,the company had 942 pharmacies,including 865 medical insurance pharmacies,106 dual-channel medical insurance pharmacies,and 456 outpatient pooling stores,up by 6/2/2 from end-2025.For 1H26,pharmaceutical manufacturing revenue/attributable NP were RMB512/44mn(-9.2/-50.9%YoY).VBP has been implemented for TCM decoction pieces and TCM formula granules,and GPM of related products fell notably YoY,weighing on pharmaceutical manufacturing earnings.
1H26 GPM declined YoY,but operating cash flow improved
For 1H26,sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 2.98/1.88/0.20/0.94%,with YoY changes of+0.26/+0.03/+0.03/-0.12pp.The company increased sales spending,leading to anotable YoY rise in the sales expense ratio in 1H26,while R&D and administrative expense ratios edged up YoY.For 1H26,GPM was 10.44%(-0.63pp YoY),mainly because VBP affected GPM of some businesses.Net operating cash flow increased by 53.3%YoY to RMB136mn in 1H26,indicating marked cash flow improvement and steady enhancement in operating quality.
Maintain BUY
We maintain our earnings forecasts and project 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB680/710/750mn(-4.3/+4.3/+5.4%YoY),corresponding to EPS of RMB1.71/1.78/1.88.We project 2026E EPS of RMB0.38 from the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment.Considering that this segment is subject to VBP,while expansion outside Guangxi continues to strengthen and sales are likely to improve after policy drag eases,we value this segment at 14x 2026E PE,below its peers'average of 16x on Wind consensus.For the wholesale segment,we project 2026E EPS of RMB1.14 and value it at 10x 2026E PE,in line with its peers'average on Wind consensus.For the retail segment,we project 2026E EPS of RMB0.19.Considering that its stores are concentrated in Guangxi,we value this segment at 14x 2026E PE,below its peers'average of 16x on Wind consensus.This implies atarget price of RMB19.37(previous:RMB21.08,based on 15/11/15x 2026E PE for pharmaceutical manufacturing/wholesale/retail segments).
Risks:external environment impact exceeding our expectation,pharmaceutical manufacturing revenue and NP growth falling short of our expectations.

　　公司1H26收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润105.26/3.69/3.67亿元，同比+2.2%/-14.0%/-13.0%。2Q26收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润51.49/1.45/1.44亿元，同比+3.3%/-4.9%/-3.6%。1H26收入虽稳健增长但净利润同比承压，除1H26公司补缴部分优惠税款及滞纳而影响利润外，还由于中药饮片、中药配方颗粒已实施集采，相关品种毛利较去年同期下滑明显，因而导致增收不增利。我们看好后续品种优化、降本增效及政策消化下业绩向好，维持买入评级。
　　批发及工业业绩承压，零售收入快速增长、归母净利润平稳增长
　　1H26批发收入/归母净利润78.12/2.56亿元（-3.0%/-5.4%yoy），业绩承压主要由于集采降价、院端控费及公司对风险客户销售的控制。1H26零售收入/归母净利润21.53/0.69亿元（+31.0%/+0.3%yoy），受益于处方外流政策推动，DTP收入16.58亿元，同比+47.1%，占零售收入比重约77%，由于DTP特药品种、处方药品种毛利率较低、销量占比较高，零售净利润增速慢于收入增速。公司以加盟模式加快终端网点布局，持续改善门店经营质量，1H26新开门店25家（其中加盟店20家）、关闭门店12家；截至1H26末药店总数942家（其中医保药店865家、医保双通道药店106家、门诊统筹店456家，分别较25年末增加6家、2家、2家）。1H26工业收入/归母净利润5.12/0.44亿元（-9.2%/-50.9%yoy），中药饮片、中药配方颗粒已实施集采，相关品种毛利同比明显下滑并影响工业业务利润表现。
　　1H26公司毛利率同比下降，经营性现金流同比明显改善
　　1H26销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为2.98%/1.88%/0.20%/0.94%，同比+0.26/+0.03/+0.03/-0.12pct。公司加强销售费用投入，1H26销售费用率同比明显上升；研发及管理费用率同比略提升。1H26毛利率10.44%，同比-0.63pct，主因集采影响部分业务毛利率。1H26公司经营性现金流净额1.36亿元，同比+53.3%，经营性现金流大幅改善，经营质量稳步提升
　　三大核心业务全面发展，维持“买入”评级
　　我们维持盈利预测，预测26-28年归母净利润分别为6.8/7.1/7.5亿元，同比-4.3%/+4.3%/+5.4%，对应EPS1.71/1.78/1.88元。我们预计26年工业业务EPS0.38元，考虑到工业受集采影响，但省外拓展布局持续加强，影响消化后有望销售改善，给予26年14xPE（26年可比公司Wind一致预期16x）；26年批发业务EPS1.14元，给予26年10xPE（26年可比公司Wind一致预期10x）；26年零售业务EPS0.19元，考虑到门店集中在广西，给予26年14xPE（26年可比公司Wind一致预期16x），对应目标价19.37元（前值21.08元，对应26年工业/批发/零售估值15x/11x/15x）。
　　风险提示：外部环境影响超预期；工业收入和净利润增长不及预期。

Liuyao Group has reported 2025 revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit of RMB20,926/709/699mn, down 1.2/17.0/16.5% YoY, missing our estimates (2025E revenue/attributable net profit of RMB21,170/770mn). The YoY decline in 2025 earnings was mainly due to pharmaceutical distribution revenue contraction amid policy headwinds such as volume-based procurement (VBP) and hospital drug ratio caps, as well as the company's proactive curtailment of sales to certain hospitals with excessively long receivable cycles; and lower margins on VBP products, with volumes of comparable non-VBP products also affected, weighing on both revenue and net profit. For 1Q26, revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit was RMB5,377/225/223mn, up 1.1% YoY/down 19.0% YoY/down 18.2% YoY. Profit pressure stemmed largely from supplementary tax payments and late-payment surcharges, as well as a marked YoY margin decline for TCM decoction pieces/TCM formula granules following VBP implementation in 1Q26. We expect earnings to improve on the back of product mix optimization, cost reduction, and policy digestion. Maintain BUY.
Wholesale/pharma manufacturing profits under pressure in 2025
In 2025, wholesale revenue/attributable net profit came to RMB16,007/453mn (-4.3/-13.2% YoY). The earnings pressure largely reflected VBP-driven price cuts, hospital-side cost containment, and the company's curtailment of sales to high-risk clients. In 2025, retail revenue/attributable net profit stood at RMB3,644/124mn (+13.6/-9.0% YoY). Benefiting from the policy push for prescription outflow, DTP revenue rose 23.4% YoY, accounting for over 60% of retail revenue. However, the lower gross margins on DTP specialty drugs and prescription drugs, coupled with their high volume share, dragged retail net profit lower YoY. For 2025, pharma manufacturing revenue/attributable net profit was RMB1,181/132mn (+1.5/-32.7% YoY), with TCM decoction piece revenue of RMB739mn (+8.9% YoY). VBP implementation for decoction pieces and formula granules weighed on profit.
Retail improved markedly in 1Q26
In 1Q26, wholesale revenue/attributable net profit came to RMB4,078/156mn (-3.8/-15.4% YoY), mainly due to lower sales and changes in the income tax rate. Retail revenue/attributable net profit reached RMB1,035/45mn (+32.0/+10.6% YoY), with the marked improvement in earnings growth driven by faster YoY growth in prescription drug and DTP revenue, supported by prescription outflow and medical insurance policy tailwinds, alongside the company's product mix optimization, which lifted profitability. Pharma manufacturing revenue/attributable net profit stood at RMB242/24mn (-10.7/-54.6% YoY). The 1Q26 decline largely reflected the impact of VBP on TCM decoction pieces and formula granules, as well as supplementary tax payments following a tax self-review at an pharma manufacturing subsidiary. Destocking and channel optimization also weighed on revenue on a near-term basis.
Operating cash flow rebounded
In 2025, the selling/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios were 3.24/1.93/ 0.18/1.04%, up 0.27pp/down 0.07pp/flat/down 0.07pp YoY. For 1Q26, the selling/ administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios stood at 2.72/1.77/0.23/0.76%, up 0.34pp/down 0.03pp/up 0.06pp/down 0.20pp YoY. The company continued to step up selling expense investment, with the selling expense ratio rising YoY in both 2025 and 1Q26. For 2025/1Q26, gross margin came to 11.05/11.56%, down 0.32/0.46pp YoY, mainly reflecting the impact of VBP on margins in certain business segments. For 2025, net operating cash flow reached RMB1,078mn, up 28.52% YoY, a marked improvement.

　　公司2025年收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润209.26/7.09/6.99亿元，同比-1.2%/-17.0%/16.5%，低于我们预期（25年收入/归母净利润211.7/7.7亿元），25年业绩同比下滑主因医药批发业务受集采和医院药占比控制等政策影响，以及公司主动控制对部分超长账期医院的销售，收入下滑；同时集采品种毛利较低，同类非集采品种销量也受到影响，影响公司收入和净利润。1Q26收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润53.77/2.25/2.23亿元，同比+1.1%/-19.0%/-18.2%，利润承压主要由于补缴部分优惠税款及滞纳金，以及1Q26中药饮片、中药配方颗粒已实施集采，相关品种毛利同比明显下滑。我们看好后续品种优化、降本增效及政策消化下业绩向好，维持买入评级。
　　25年批发及工业利润承压，零售收入稳定增长、利润同比下滑
　　25年批发收入/归母净利润160.07/4.53亿元（-4.3%/-13.2%yoy），业绩承压主要由于集采降价、院端控费以及公司对风险客户销售的控制。25年零售收入/归母净利润36.44/1.24亿元（+13.6%/-9.0%yoy），受益于处方外流政策推动，DTP收入同比+23.4%、占零售收入比重超60%，由于DTP特药品种、处方药品种毛利率较低、销量占比较高，零售净利润同比下滑。25年工业收入/归母净利润11.81/1.32亿元（+1.5%/-32.7%yoy），其中中药饮片收入7.39亿元（+8.9%yoy），饮片和配方颗粒集采落地影响利润。
　　1Q26零售业务改善明显，批发和工业业务阶段性承压
　　1Q26批发收入/归母净利润40.78/1.56亿元（-3.8%/-15.4%yoy），主要由于销售下滑和所得税率变化影响；零售收入/归母净利润10.35/0.45亿元（+32.0%/+10.6%yoy），业绩增速明显改善主因在处方外流、医保政策推动下处方药及DTP收入同比较快增长，同时公司优化品种结构，推动盈利能力提升；工业收入/归母净利润2.42/0.24亿元（-10.7%/-54.6%yoy），1Q26业绩下滑主要受中药饮片和配方颗粒集采、工业子公司税务自查补缴的影响，且公司持续推进去库存和渠道优化，阶段性影响收入。
　　25年公司销售费用率同比增长，经营性现金流同比改善明显
　　2025年销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为3.24%/1.93%/0.18%/1.04%，同比+0.27/-0.07/+0.00/-0.07pct；1Q26销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为2.72%/1.77%/0.23%/0.76%，同比+0.34/-0.03/+0.06/-0.20pct。公司持续加强销售费用投入，25年及1Q26销售费用率均同比提高。2025年/1Q26毛利率为11.05%/11.56%，同比-0.32/-0.46pct，主因集采影响部分业务毛利率。25年经营性现金流净额10.78亿元，同比+28.52%，同比明显改善。
　　三大核心业务全面发展，维持“买入”评级
　　考虑到集采等影响，公司主动进行品种结构优化，及省外业务持续拓展、费用投入提升，我们下调批发及工业收入增速预期、上调零售收入增速预期，下调零售及工业毛利率预期，上调销售费用率预期，预测26-28年归母净利润分别为6.8/7.1/7.5亿元（相比26/27年前值下调15%/14%），同比-4.3%/+4.3%/+5.4%，对应EPS1.71/1.78/1.88元。我们预计26年工业业务EPS0.38元，考虑到工业受集采影响，但省外拓展布局持续加强，影响消化后有望销售改善，给予26年15xPE（26年可比公司Wind一致预期17x）；26年批发业务EPS1.14元，给予26年11xPE（26年可比公司Wind一致预期11x）；26年零售业务EPS0.19元，考虑到门店集中在广西，给予26年15xPE（26年可比公司Wind一致预期17x），对应目标价21.08元（前值21.70元，对应26年工业/批发/零售估值12x/10x/12x）。
　　风险提示：外部环境影响超预期；工业收入和净利润增长不及预期。