LT Growth Trajectory Unaltered Despite ST Earnings Volatility
发布时间:2026-05-11 来源:华泰证券
Guobo Electronics(Guobo)reported 2025 revenue of RMB2,386mn(-7.92%YoY),attributable NP of RMB508mn(+4.72%YoY),and recurring NP of RMB493mn(+3.50%YoY),in line with its prior guidance.In 1Q26,revenue was RMB319mn(-8.90%YoY,-60.99%QoQ),and attributable NP was RMB0.86mn(-98.51%YoY,-99.67%QoQ).The company faced short-term earnings pressure in 1Q26,mainly due to temporary delays in defense orders and higher YoY asset impairment losses.Long term,as China's military digitalization enters the 15th Five-Year Plan development cycle and Guobo expands into emerging fields like low-orbit satellites and commercial aerospace,its military product earnings should,in our view,gradually recover.On the civilian side,Guobo is accelerating its penetration into mobile terminals,with silicon-based GaN products now in mass production.As direct-to-cell satellite adoption accelerates,Guobo's RF chip business is poised for rapid growth.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
T/R module business demand volatile in the short term
Guobo continued to sharpen its focus on active phased array T/R modules and RF chip/module businesses,advancing new technologies,products,and market applications.In 2025,T/R modules and RF modules generated revenue of RMB2,108mn(-9.58%YoY).The company expanded into emerging fields such as low-orbit satellites and commercial aerospace,with multiple satellite-borne T/R module products already delivered to clients in batches,becoming one of the main revenue sources for 2025 and meaningfully offsetting the decline in traditional businesses.The RF chip business achieved revenue of RMB187mn(+9.84%YoY),maintaining robust growth.The company has made significant strides in emerging sectors,with its silicon-based GaN power amplifier chips—developed in collaboration with leading domestic terminal manufacturers—achieving the industry’s first mass production and delivery for terminal RF applications.
1Q26 profitability strained in the short term;R&D expenses up
In 2025,GPM was 42.09%(+3.50pp YoY)and attributable NPM was 21.27%(+2.57pp YoY).In 1Q26,GPM/attributable NPM fell 9.38/16.17pp YoY,likely due to reduced revenue from T/R modules and RF modules,on our estimates.For 2025,the sales/administrative/financial/R&D expense ratio rose 0.24/1.06/0.26/0.07pp YoY;in 1Q26,the change was-0.08/-0.08/+1.26/+4.46pp YoY.Despite earnings volatility,the company increased R&D investment to sharpen its technological edge in third-generation semiconductors.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the recovery pace of the company's military products business,we forecast 2026/2027/2028 revenue at RMB2,994/3,622/4,380mn(previous 2026/2027 forecast:RMB3,216/4,054mn,an adjustment of-6.91/-10.67%)and attributable NP of RMB563/708/891mn(previous 2026/2027 forecast:RMB650/821mn,an adjustment of-13.48/-13.76%).Given that multiple domestic commercial rockets could see batch launches in 2027,accelerating satellite launches and network deployment,we switch to a2027 valuation.With its peers’average 2027 PS at 21x(on Wind consensus),and considering Guobo's strong growth in military T/R modules and rapid breakthroughs in civilian RF chips,we assign a2027 target PS of 24x,translating to atarget price of RMB145.84(previous:RMB81.85,based on 75x 2026 PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Dependence on major clients,inventory impairment.