Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that the climate for products such as valine remains weak, we lower our product price and gross margin forecasts. We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB170/270/300mn (down 39/12/13%), implying 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP growth of 30/60/8%. We value the stock at 16x 2027E PE, at par with the comparable companies' average of 16x on Wind consensus for 2027. Our target price is RMB17.60 (previous: RMB18.60, on 15x 2027E PE vs. peers' average of 15x). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

　　事件：华恒生物发布2026年三季报，三季度公司实现营收7.44亿元，同比+6%，实现归母净利润为0.3亿元，同比-42%。
　　氨基酸产品价格下行拖累Q3业绩。26Q3公司实现毛利率17.3%，同比-5pct，环比-9pct，费用率（四费&税金）16.5%，同比+0.3pct，环比-3pct，公司缬氨酸等产品价格下行及管理费用增加是业绩下滑主因。分产品看，Q3缬氨酸/色氨酸/精氨酸/异亮氨酸/肌醇价格同比-20%/-34%/-13%/-8%/+58%，环比-19%/-18%/-19%/-21%/-9%。价差方面，Q3缬氨酸价差4958元/吨，同比-35%，环比-32%。三季度公司氨基酸业务产品总体供应过剩，终端需求偏弱，用户补库谨慎，价格承压对业绩形成拖累。
　　公司实施股权激励，绑定核心团队助力公司长远发展。2026年10月19日，公司审议通过《2026年限制性股票激励计划（草案）》，以10.69元/股的授予价格，向符合条件的3名激励对象授予350.00万股第一类限制性股票，向符合条件的105名激励对象授予601.60万股第二类限制性股票。业绩考核方面，以2025年营业收入或净利润为业绩基数，2026-2028年营收或净利增速目标15%/30%/45%、触发10%/20%/30%。公司通过股权激励绑定核心团队利益，有望充分调动员工积极性，提升公司的市场竞争能力与可持续发展能力。
　　投资建议：预计2026-2028年公司归母净利润为1.6、2.4、2.7亿元。维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：产品价格大幅波动，下游需求不及预期，项目进度不及预期。

　　华恒生物10月27日发布26年三季报：前三季度实现营收23.8亿元，同比+8%，归母净利润1.3亿元，同比-22%，扣非净利1.2亿元，同比-27%；其中26Q3营收7.4亿元，同比+6%/环比-14%，归母净利润0.3亿元（扣非后0.26亿元），同比-42%/环比-48%（扣非后同比-50%/环比-52%）。26Q3归母净利低于我们前瞻预期（0.5亿元），主要系缬氨酸等产品实际价格低于我们预期。我们下调26-28年归母净利润预测；考虑未来PDO/丁二酸等新品市场逐步拓展有望打开成长空间，维持“增持”评级。
　　氨基酸等产品持续放量助力营收增长，产品价格偏弱拖累毛利率
　　由于需求不佳及行业新产能较多等因素，缬氨酸等氨基酸产品景气不佳，据博亚和讯，9M26缬氨酸/色氨酸/精氨酸市场均价为12.69/32.55/22.63元/kg，同比-10%/-33%/-16%，其中26Q3均价分别为10.78/28.63/20.55元/kg，同比-20%/-34%/-13%（环比-18%/-19%/-19%）。虽产品景气偏弱，公司依托产能持续放量和市场拓展，收入端同比仍保持增长态势。前三季度公司综合毛利率同比-1.9pct至21.6%；其中26Q3综合毛利率17.3%，同比-5.1pct/环比-8.6pct。
　　氨基酸景气有望逐步修复，新项目增量有望逐步释放
　　据博亚和讯，10月27日缬氨酸/色氨酸/精氨酸市场报价分别为10.15/28.5/20元/kg，较9月末-3%/+1%/-2%（较年初-26%/-12%/-3%），行业整体景气仍处近五年较低位置，但考虑豆粕提价下氨基酸替代需求有望保持增长等因素，我们预计产品景气或逐步迎来改善。新项目方面，据26年半年报，公司在建项目主要包括交替年产6万吨三支链氨基酸、色氨酸和年产1万吨精制氨基酸项目，苹果酸联产色氨酸项目等，同时公司积极推进1,3-丙二醇等生物基新材料单体的产业化进程，未来有望贡献新增长点。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑缬氨酸等景气仍偏弱，我们下调产品价格和毛利率等预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为1.7/2.7/3.0亿元（下调39%/12%/13%），26-28年归母净利润增速分别为30%/60%/8%。参考可比公司27年Wind一致预期平均16xPE，给予公司27年16xPE，目标价17.6元（前值18.6元，基于27年15xPEvs可比公司均值15xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：新建项目进展不及预期风险；核心技术流失风险。

Huaheng Biotechnology released its 1H26 results on 24 August. 1H26 revenue was RMB1,630mn, up 10% YoY; attributable NP was RMB100mn, down 12% YoY; recurring attributable NP was RMB96mn, down 16% YoY. For 2Q26, revenue was RMB860mn, up 7% YoY/12% QoQ; attributable NP was RMB60mn (recurring: RMB54mn), down 8% YoY/up 40% QoQ (recurring: down 15% YoY/up 29% QoQ). 2Q26 attributable NP beat our forecast of RMB40mn, because amino acid prices performed better than we expected in 2Q. Given that the industry climate for products such as valine remains weak, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts. Considering that the potential market expansion of new products such as tryptophan, PDO, and succinic acid could unlock profit growth potential, we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Soft product prices eroded GPM
In 1H26, amino acid business revenue grew 14% YoY to RMB1,200mn, driven by volume growth of tryptophan and arginine. However, due to weak demand and substantial new industry capacity, the amino acid product climate was lukewarm. According to boyar.cn, in 1H26, valine/tryptophan/arginine average market prices were RMB13.63/34.53/23.71 per kg, down 4/33/17% YoY, and the amino acid segment's gross margin fell 4.7pp YoY to 25.9% in 1H26. The vitamin product climate was also soft, with 1H26 vitamin business revenue down 2% YoY to RMB78mn, but product mix optimization lifted gross margin by 15.2pp YoY to 27.6%. In 1H26, the company's overall gross margin fell 0.5pp YoY to 23.6%, and the expense ratio rose 2.5pp YoY to 17.5%. For 2Q26, overall gross margin was 25.9%, up 2pp YoY/5pp QoQ, owing to price increases for certain amino acid products driven by geopolitical conflicts and overseas panic buying ahead of potential tariffs. According to boyar.cn, in 2Q26, valine/tryptophan/arginine average market prices were RMB13.19/35.14/25.45 per kg, -6/+4/+16% QoQ.
New project increments likely to unleash
According to boyar.cn, on 24 August, valine/tryptophan/arginine market quotes were RMB11.05/28.50/21.00 per kg, +3/-3%/flat vs end-June (-19/-12/+1% vs beginning of the year). Due to weak demand and the release of new industry capacity, the amino acid climate remains at a relatively low level over the past five years, and we expect a significant recovery in the product climate to still take some time. Regarding new projects, per the interim report, the company's projects under construction include an alternating 60ktpa branched-chain amino acids/tryptophan and 10ktpa refined amino acids project, and a malic acid co-producing tryptophan project. Meanwhile, the company is advancing the industrialization of bio-based new material monomers such as 1,3-propanediol (PDO), which could contribute new growth highlights in the future.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that the climate for products such as valine remains weak, we lower our amino acid product price and gross margin forecasts. We forecast 2026/2027 attributable NP of RMB280/310mn (previous: RMB380/430mn, down 26%/28%), and introduce a 2028 attributable NP forecast of RMB340mn, implying a 2026-2028 attributable NP CAGR of 37%. We value the stock at 15x 2027E PE, at par with the comparable companies' average of 15x on Wind consensus for 2027. Our target price is RMB18.60 (previous: RMB37.12, on 32x 2025E PE vs. peers' 32x)
Risks: slower progress in the construction of new projects than we expect; the loss of core technologies.

　　华恒生物8月24日发布26年中报，26H1营收16.3亿元，同比+10%，归母净利润1亿元，同比-12%，扣非净利0.96亿元，同比-16%；其中26Q2营收8.6亿元，同比+7%/环比+12%，归母净利润0.6亿元（扣非后0.54亿元），同比-8%/环比+40%（扣非后同比-15%/环比+29%）。26Q2归母净利好于我们前瞻预期（0.4亿元），主因二季度氨基酸价格表现好于我们预期。由于缬氨酸等产品景气仍偏弱，我们下调公司26-27年归母净利润预测。考虑未来色氨酸/PDO/丁二酸等新品市场逐步拓展有望打开成长空间，维持“增持”评级。
　　氨基酸产品放量带动H1营收增长，产品价格偏弱拖累毛利率水平
　　26H1氨基酸业务营收yoy+14%至12亿元，主要系色氨酸和精氨酸等产品放量，但由于需求不佳及行业新产能较多等因素，氨基酸产品景气不佳，据博亚和讯，26H1缬氨酸/色氨酸/精氨酸市场均价为13.63/34.53/23.71元/kg，同比-4%/-33%/-17%，上半年氨基酸板块毛利率同比-4.7pct至25.9%。维生素产品景气亦偏弱，26H1维生素业务营收同比-2%至0.78亿元，但产品结构调整助力毛利率同比+15.2pct至27.6%。26H1公司综合毛利率同比-0.5pct至23.6%，期间费用率同比+2.5pct至17.5%；26Q2综合毛利率25.9%，同比+2pct/环比+5pct，主要系地缘冲突及海外抢出口等导致部分氨基酸产品提价，据博亚和讯，26Q2缬氨酸/色氨酸/精氨酸市场均价为13.19/35.14/25.45元/kg，环比-6%/+4%/+16%。
　　产品景气待复苏，新项目增量有望逐步释放
　　据博亚和讯，8月24日缬氨酸/色氨酸/精氨酸市场报价分别为11.05/28.50/21.00元/kg，较6月末+3%/-3%/0%（较年初-19%/-12%/+1%），由于需求偏弱及行业新增产能释放等因素，氨基酸景气仍处近五年较低位置，我们预计产品景气显著修复仍需一定时间。新项目方面，据半年报，公司在建项目主要包括交替年产6万吨三支链氨基酸、色氨酸和年产1万吨精制氨基酸项目，苹果酸联产色氨酸项目等，同时公司积极推进1,3-丙二醇等生物基新材料单体的产业化进程，未来有望贡献新增长点。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到缬氨酸等产品景气仍偏弱，我们下调氨基酸等产品价格和毛利率预测，预计公司26-27年归母净利润为2.8/3.1亿元（前值3.8/4.3亿元，下调26%/28%），同时引入2028年归母净利润预测为3.4亿元，26-28年归母净利润CAGR为37%。参考可比公司27年Wind一致预期平均15xPE，给予公司27年15xPE，目标价18.6元（前值37.12元，基于25年32xPEvs可比公司32xPE）。
　　风险提示：新建项目进展不及预期风险；核心技术流失风险。