事件：
　　公司发布2025年年报，2025年实现营业收入256.53亿元，同比+51.2%；归母净利润8.09亿元，同比+23.9%；扣非归母净利润5.02亿元，同比+17.7%；基本每股收益0.75元。2026Q1公司实现营业收入67.56亿元，同比+71.2%；归母净利润1.81亿元，同比+432.58%。
　　2025年主营产品价格承压，一体化布局体现成本优势。2025年公司磷酸二铵/聚氯乙烯/尿素/其他氯碱产品/化工产品业务分别实现营收83/45/33/24/17亿元，同比分别+69.2%/+9.7%/+18.7%/54.5%/-6.7%；毛利率分别为18.39%/-7.83%/13.95%/48.53%/19.58%，分别同比-1.51pct/+0.96pct/-6.03pct/+8.42pct/+4.89pct；磷酸二铵/聚氯乙烯/尿素/其他氯碱产品销量分别实现180/109/211/145万吨，同比+30%/+28%/+45%/19%。2025年公司综合毛利率同比+4.4pct至18.14%，综合净利率同比+0.36pct至5.63%。受市场供需关系影响，公司聚氯乙烯、尿素、煤炭等产品价格较2024年均有不同程度的下跌，业绩增长主要系公司发挥宜昌磷矿资源优势，借助北煤南运通道的区位条件，通过一体化经营模式强化上下游协同，持续优化成本结构，增强盈利韧性。
　　中东冲突推升国际化肥价格，国内外价差显著扩大，关注后续化肥出口政策。受美伊冲突影响，中东多家化肥工厂停产叠加霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻，国际尿素价格上涨至约900美元/吨（2/28-4/29涨幅约83%），印度招标价折合人民币近6500元/吨，而国内仅约1900元/吨，内外价差急剧扩大；国内外磷酸一铵/磷酸二铵价差亦超1500元/吨，伴随国内春耕结束，后续化肥出口限制有望逐步松动，公司作为国内尿素及磷肥主要生产商有望充分收益。成本端需关注硫磺价格大幅上行压力，硫磺成本上行对磷肥盈利形成一定挤压，但公司凭借磷矿资源自给优势，成本传导能力优于行业平均。
　　新疆宜化资产注入完成，提质增效稳步推进。2025年，公司购买控股股东宜化集团持有的宜昌新发投100%股权，持有新疆宜化的股权比例由35.597%上升至75%，新疆宜化成为公司控股子公司，主营业务范围进一步扩大；10月，新疆宜化通过高新技术企业认定，进一步强化公司技术壁垒和市场竞争力。2025年公司年产20万吨精制磷酸和65万吨磷铵项目、40万吨磷铵和20万吨硫基复合肥项目、20万吨烧碱项目安全顺利投产，推动公司磷化工和氯碱化工产业实现提质增效，持续提升主营核心产品产能集中度和盈利能力。
　　投资建议：考虑到公司主营产品价格和盈利回暖，我们预计公司2026-2028年营业收入分别为277/293/300亿元，同比增速分别为+8%/+6%/+2%，归母净利润分别为10.7/13.7/15.6亿元，同比增速为+32%/+28%/+14%，EPS分别为0.98/1.26/1.43元/股，对应PE为17/13/12X，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：主要原材料价格波动风险；下游需求不及预期风险；安全生产风险；
　　环保风险。

　　事件：公司发布2025年年报和2026年一季报。2025年，公司实现营业收入256.53亿元，同比+1.02%；实现归母净利润8.09亿元，同比-24.25%。2026Q1，实现营业收入67.56亿元，同环比分别+15.03%/+4.16%；实现归母净利润1.81亿元，同比+36.19%，环比实现扭亏为盈。
　　2025年，化肥板块量价齐升，化工与煤炭板块因市场价格下行收入有所下滑。分业务来看，化肥/化工/煤炭产品分别实现营业收入115.47/85.87/27.81亿元，同比分别+36.81%/-14.88%/-32.64%；销量分别420/300/2252万吨，同比分别+28.07%/-1.94%/-20.75%，化肥产品收入增速高于销量增速表明价格有所上涨。成本端来看，2025年下半年硫磺采购均价环比上半年上涨超过40%，推高了磷肥成本，而原料煤、电石等价格下行则对煤化工及氯碱化工成本形成一定支撑。
　　资产并表做大规模，煤肥化布局强化抗周期能力。公司2025年完成同一控制下企业合并追溯调整，2026Q1总资产达470.56亿元，较年初+2.31%；归母净资产70.22亿元，较年初+3.25%。2025年年报披露，公司已形成尿素216万吨、磷铵165万吨、复合肥70万吨，烧碱94万吨、PVC90万吨、季戊四醇7万吨、煤炭3000万吨的年产能平台，新增煤炭开采和洗选业务后，资源禀赋与一体化程度明显增强。公司利润来源由化肥、氯碱扩展至“煤炭+尿素+磷肥+氯碱+精细化工”，抗周期能力更强。
　　投资建议：公司煤-肥-化产业布局抗周期能力增强，走向多元化资源型平台公司。我们预计公司26-28年归母净利润分别为10.6/12.5/13.5亿元，对应PE分别为15.6/13.2/12.3倍，看好公司“煤炭+化肥+煤化工”的产业链布局，煤炭资源优势有望打开成长空间，首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求不及预期、煤炭价格下降、主要原材料价格波动、安全与环保等风险。

For 1Q26,Hubei Yihua’s revenue was RMB6,760mn(+15%YoY,+4%QoQ),the attributable net profit(NP)was RMB180mn(+36%YoY,+6,131%QoQ),and the recurring NP was RMB130mn(+655%YoY).Its attributable NP beat our expectation(RMB150mn),mainly backed by growing investment income.Considering that the phosphate value chain remains strong and that Hubei Yihua has an advantage in terms of scarce DAP production capacity,we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
1Q26 GPM rose by 3.6pp YoY to 14.0%
For 1Q26,both revenue and profit grew,mainly driven by broad YoY increases in the prices of the company’s main products.According to Baiinfo,for 1Q26,the prices of diammonium phosphate(DAP)/monoammonium phosphate(MAP)/urea/PVC(calcium carbide method)/caustic soda(32%liquid alkali)were RMB3,875/3,826/1,784/4,731/774 per tonne(+14/+23/+1/-1/-26%YoY).The prices of phosphorus fertilizer and other products rose,supported by cost floors and robust demand.According to the 1Q26 report,the GPM rose by 3.6pp YoY to 14.0%.According to Bloomberg,on 24 April 2026,the prices of overseas DAP(US Gulf)/urea(Middle East granular)were USD725/907.5 per tonne(+18/131%YTD),indicating still large price spreads between domestic and overseas markets.Amid domestic and overseas planting area expansion,tight global phosphorus resources could enable the phosphate value chain to remain strong.Moreover,if export quotas are eased going ahead,enterprises with export qualifications for phosphate fertilizers and urea are poised to benefit.
Under-construction projects to buoy future profit
According to the 1Q26 report,the production facilities and supporting facilities of the company’s 40ktpa pentaerythritol project were safely commissioned.The pentaerythritol production lines have reached full capacity,which effectively optimized the company’s fine chemical product mix.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP estimates at RMB1,212/1,461/1,751mn,with YoY growth of 50/21/20%and EPS of RMB1.11/1.34/1.61.To factor in the company’s resource advantages,we value the stock at 16x 2026E PE,a premium over its peers’average of 15x on Wind consensus.Our target price is unchanged at RMB17.76.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:new project progress falling short of our expectations;sharp raw-material price fluctuations;DAP export policy restrictions.

Hubei Yihua’s 2025 revenue grew by 51% YoY to RMB25.65bn; the attributable net profit (NP) grew by 24% YoY to RMB809mn; and the recurring NP grew by 18% YoY to RMB502mn. Specifically, for 4Q25, revenue grew by 16% YoY and fell by 9% QoQ to RMB6.49bn. The attributable NP was RMB-3mn (-368% YoY, -101% QoQ). The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB0.25 per share. Its 4Q25 NP missed our estimate of RMB370mn, mainly due to increased raw material prices, expense hikes, and higher impairment losses. Considering that the phosphate value chain remains strong and that Hubei Yihua has an advantage in terms of scarce DAP production capacity, we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Consolidation of Xinjiang Yihua enhanced profitability
According to the company’s annual report, in 2025, the sales volume of ammonium phosphate grew by 30.3% YoY to 1,803.8k tonnes, mainly driven by the production and sales volume increase following the commissioning of phosphorus chemical production facilities; the ASP grew by c. 12.1% YoY to RMB3,949/tonne, mainly supported by robust downstream demand and high phosphate fertilizer prices overseas; revenue rose by c. 46.0% YoY to RMB7,123mn. The sales volume of urea grew by 44.7% YoY to 2,108.1k tonnes following the consolidation of Xinjiang Yihua; the ASP fell by 18.0% YoY to RMB1,562/tonne, mainly due to raw-material price drops; revenue climbed by 18.7% YoY to RMB3,293mn. The sales volume of PVC grew by 27.9% YoY to 1,088.8k tonnes, with the ASP falling by 14.2% YoY to RMB4,161/tonne but revenue growing by 9.7% YoY to RMB4.53bn. The sales volume of other chlor-alkali products grew by 18.6% YoY to 1,450.4k tonnes, as production capacity for products such as caustic soda increased following the consolidation of Xinjiang Yihua; the ASP rose by 30.3% YoY to RMB1,634/tonne on solid downstream demand; revenue grew by 54.5% YoY to RMB2.37bn. In 2025, the GPM fell by 1.9pp YoY to 18.1% as some products saw falling prices.
Phosphate value chain remains strong
According to Baiinfo, as of 24 April 2026, the prices of the company’s main products, diammonium phosphate (DAP)/monoammonium phosphate (MAP)/urea/ PVC (calcium carbide method)/caustic soda (32% liquid alkali), were RMB4,099/ 4,001/1,855/4,387/789 per tonne (+6.9/+9.1/+8.4/-3.0/-0.9% YTD). Supported by cost floors and robust demand, the prices of phosphate fertilizers and other products have risen, while the prices of chlor-alkali products remained under pressure. According to Bloomberg, on 24 April 2026, the prices of overseas DAP (US Gulf)/urea (Middle East granular) were USD725/907.5 per tonne (+18/131% YTD), indicating still large price spreads between domestic and overseas markets. Amid domestic and overseas planting area expansion, tight global phosphorus resources could enable the phosphate value chain to remain strong. Moreover, if export quotas are eased going ahead, enterprises with export qualifications for phosphate fertilizers and urea are poised to benefit.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering rising prices of sulfur (a raw material), we lower our ammonium phosphate GPM assumptions. Thus, we cut our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts by 14/14% from the previous RMB1,410/1,690mn to RMB1,212/1,461mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB1,751mn, with 2026/2027/2028 YoY growth of 50/21/20% and EPS of RMB1.11/1.34/1.61. To factor in the growth potential of its projects under construction, adding that we think the company’s earnings could improve if eased export quotas benefit enterprises with export qualifications for phosphate fertilizers and urea, we value the stock at 16x 2026E PE, a premium over its peers’ average of 15x on Wind consensus. We raise our target price to RMB17.76 (previous: RMB15.12 on 14x 2025E PE). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: new project progress falling short of our expectations; sharp raw-material price fluctuations; DAP export policy restrictions.

　　湖北宜化公布26年一季报：2026年Q1实现营收67.6亿元（yoy+15%、qoq+4%），归母净利1.8亿元（yoy+36%、qoq+6131%），扣非净利1.3亿元（yoy+655%）。26Q1净利高于我们预期（1.5亿元），主要系投资收益等有所增加。考虑到磷产业链景气有望维持，公司具备稀缺磷肥产能优势，维持“增持”评级。
　　磷肥等价格提高，公司26Q1毛利率yoy+3.6pct至14.0%
　　26Q1公司营收及利润均实现增长，主要系主产品价格整体同比上涨，据百川盈孚，26Q1磷酸二铵/磷酸一铵/尿素/PVC（电石法）/烧碱（32%液碱）价格分别为3875/3826/1784/4731/774元/吨，yoy+14%/+23%/+1%/-1%/-26%，磷肥等在成本端支撑以及需求侧带动下价格有所上涨。据26年一季报，公司毛利率yoy+3.6pct至14.0%。据彭博，26年4月24日，海外二铵（美湾）/尿素（中东颗粒）价格725/907.5美元/吨，较年初+18%/+131%，海内外价差仍较大。我们认为在海内外种植面积提高以及全球磷资源偏紧下，磷产业链未来景气有望维持，且若后续放开出口，具备磷肥、尿素出口资质的企业有望受益。
　　在建项目有序推进，未来有望增厚公司利润
　　据26年一季报，公司年产4万吨季戊四醇项目的生产装置和配套设施安全顺利投产，季戊四醇产品已满负荷生产，有效推动公司精细化工产品结构优化调整。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润预测为12.1/14.6/17.5亿元，同比+50%/+21%/+20%，对应EPS为1.11/1.34/1.61元。结合可比公司26年平均15倍PE估值，考虑到公司资源端优势，给予公司26年16倍PE估值，维持目标价为17.76元，维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：新项目进度不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动；磷肥出口政策限制。

　　湖北宜化公布25年年报：2025年实现营收256.5亿元（yoy+51%），归母净利8.09亿元（yoy+24%），扣非净利5.02亿元（yoy+18%）。其中Q4实现营收64.9亿元（yoy+16%，qoq-9%），归母净利-300万元（yoy-368%，qoq-101%）。公司拟每股派发现金红利0.25元。25Q4净利低于我们预期（3.7亿元），主要系原料价格、四费、减值损失等有所提高。考虑到磷产业链景气有望维持，公司具备稀缺磷肥产能优势，维持“增持”评级。
　　磷产业链景气带动量价增长，并表新疆宜化提升公司盈利能力
　　据25年报，25年公司磷铵销量同比+30.3%至180.38万吨，主要系磷化工项目投产带动产销量提升，均价同比约+12.1%至3949元/吨，主要系下游需求较好且海外磷肥价格较高，营收同比约+46.0%至71.23亿元。尿素销量同比+44.7%至210.81万吨，主要系并表新疆宜化，均价同比-18.0%至1562元/吨，主要系原料价格下跌，营收同比+18.7%至32.93亿元；聚氯乙烯销量同比+27.9%至108.88万吨，均价同比-14.2%至4161元/吨，营收同比+9.7%至45.30亿元。其他氯碱产品销量同比+18.6%至145.04万吨，主要系并表新疆宜化后烧碱等产能规模增加，均价同比+30.3%至1634元/吨，主要系下游需求较好带动，营收同比+54.5%至23.70亿元。25年公司毛利率同比-1.9pct至18.1%，主要系部分产品价格回落。
　　磷产业链景气延续，若后续放开出口具备化肥出口资质企业有望受益
　　据百川盈孚，截至26年4月24日，公司主要产品磷酸二铵/磷酸一铵/尿素/PVC（电石法）/烧碱（32%液碱）价格分别为4099/4001/1855/4387/789元/吨，较年初+6.9%/+9.1%/+8.4%/-3.0%/-0.9%，磷肥等在成本端支撑以及需求侧带动下价格有所上涨，氯碱产品价格仍有所承压。据彭博，26年4月24日，海外二铵（美湾）/尿素（中东颗粒）价格725/907.5美元/吨，较年初+18%/+131%，海内外价差仍较大。我们认为在海内外种植面积提高以及全球磷资源偏紧下，磷产业链未来景气有望维持，且若后续放开出口，具备磷肥、尿素出口资质的企业有望受益。
　　在建项目有序推进，未来有望增厚公司利润
　　据25年年报，公司完成重大资产重组，持有新疆宜化股权提升39.4pct至75%，新增尿素60万吨、PVC30万吨、烧碱25万吨、煤炭3000万吨年产能，产业链进一步延伸。此外，年产20万吨精制磷酸和65万吨磷铵等项目已投产；同时公司推进磷氟资源高值化利用项目，规划建设10万吨/年精制磷酸、5万吨/年高档阻燃剂、20万吨/年多功能复混肥、5万吨/年磷酸二氢钾等。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到原料硫磺价格上涨，我们下调公司磷铵毛利率，由此下调公司26-27年归母净利润为12.1/14.6亿元的盈利预测（前值为14.1/16.9亿元，下调14%/14%），引入28年利润为17.5亿元，26-28年同比+50%/+21%/+20%，对应EPS为1.11/1.34/1.61元。结合可比公司26年平均15倍PE估值，考虑到公司在投项目成长性，给予公司26年16倍PE估值，考虑到若后续放开出口，具备磷肥、尿素出口资质的企业有望受益，公司盈利有望修复，上调目标价至17.76元（前值为15.12元，对应25年14xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：新项目进度不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动；磷肥出口政策限制。