Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical(Xianju)has reported 2025 revenue of RMB3.8bn(-6.04%YoY),an attributable NP of RMB450mn(+13.21%YoY),and an ex-nonrecurring NP of RMB349mn(-36.50%YoY).For 4Q25,revenue reached RMB933mn(+22.22%YoY),while the attributable NP was RMB43.0mn,compared with aloss for the same period last year.The decline in the ex-nonrecurring NP mainly reflected lower API prices.The gap between the attributable NP and the ex-nonrecurring profit mainly came from RMB70mn of insurance compensation recognized in 4Q25 as non-recurring gains and losses.Given that volume-based procurement(VBP)risk has largely played out,specialty formulations are entering adense product approval cycle and should accelerate sales ramp-up,and Class 1innovative drug adamgammadex has already filed for listing,we maintain BUY.
API:pressured pricing in less-regulated markets
API revenue was RMB1.3bn in 2025(-13.5%YoY).Specifically:1)Self-operated APIs generated revenue of RMB738mn(-15.2%YoY),with stronger volume but lower prices.Given pricing pressure in less-regulated markets,we expect revenue growth to resume in 2026.2)Newchem generated revenue of RMB599mn(+1.3%YoY).As overseas economies are likely to recover,we expect Newchem to deliver single-digit revenue growth in 2026.
Formulations:steady growth;new products to support growth
Formulations revenue was RMB2.4bn in 2025(-2%YoY).We expect revenue growth of about 10%in 2026.By segment:1)Gynecology revenue was RMB422mn(-5.4%YoY).As new products such as NETE,DRSP/EE,and E2V ramp up,we expect the segment to resume growth in 2026.2)Anesthesia revenue was RMB129mn(-16.8%YoY),mainly due to price cuts under national VBP for sugammadex sodium.We expect aslight decline in 2026.3)Respiratory revenue was RMB944mn(+7.3%YoY),and we expect growth to continue in 2026.4)Dermatology revenue was RMB241mn(+3%YoY),and we expect single-digit growth in 2026.5)General medicines revenue was RMB476mn(-13%YoY),mainly because dexamethasone sodium phosphate was included in the ninth batch of VBP,while progesterone injection entered provincial VBP.We expect revenue to remain broadly flat in 2026.
Innovative drug pipeline comes to fruition
1)Gynecology:In addition to already approved products including DRSP/EE(approved in April 2023),E2V(approved in July 2024),DSG/EE tablets,DYD(approved in May 2025),MPA tablets(approved in April 2026),and E2 tablets(approved in September 2025),the company has also filed progesterone Vaginal P4 gel for listing in February 2025 and acombination package of E2/DYD tablets in December 2025.2)Anesthesia:Class 1innovative drug adamgammadex filed its NDA in September 2024,and we expect approval soon.Peak sales could exceed RMB2.0bn.In January 2026,Aspen was authorized as the exclusive promotion service provider for mainland China,and Xianju and Aomo are to each receive 50%of future commercialization milestones and commercial profits.Class 2innovative drug CZ1S,for post-operative analgesia,is in Phase III,and we expect it to file for listing in 2Q26.Class 2innovative drug CZ006,also for post-operative analgesia,is in Phase I.3)Respiratory:Class 2innovative drug CZ4D,for pulmonary aspergillosis,is in Phase I,while tiotropium bromide and olodaterol inhalation spray is in BE studies.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given pricing pressure in the less-regulated API markets,weaker domestic demand due to VBP,and the company’s higher R&D spending,we forecast attributable NP of RMB475mn,RMB543mn,and RMB617mn for 2026,2027,and 2028,with our 2026 and 2027 forecasts cut by 15%and 16%,respectively.Based on our SOTP valuation,we derive an equity value of RMB11.2bn,corresponding to our target price of RMB11.29(previously RMB12.16).
Risks:product sales fall short of our expectations,product price cuts exceed our expectations,and R&D progress falls short of our expectations.

　　公司公布25年年报：25年实现营收37.59亿元（yoy-6.04%），归母净利4.50亿元（yoy+13.21%），扣非净利3.49亿元（yoy-36.50%）。其中4Q25实现营收9.33亿元（yoy+22.22%），归母净利4295.58万元（同比扭亏）。扣非利润下滑主因原料药价格下行，归母利润偏离扣非利润主因4Q25取得保险赔款收入0.7亿元，计入非经常性损益。考虑到集采风险出清+特色制剂进入密集获批周期加速放量+1类新药奥美克松钠已申报上市，维持“买入”评级。
　　原料药：自营原料药非规市场价格承压
　　25年原料药收入13.4亿元（-13.5%yoy），其中：1）自营原料药：25年收入7.38亿元（-15.2%yoy），量增价跌，考虑到非规市场价格承压，我们预期26年收入恢复增长；2）Newchem：25年收入5.99亿元（+1.3%yoy），考虑到海外经济有望恢复，我们预计26年Newchem收入个位数增长。
　　制剂：增长稳健，新产品陆续上市有望贡献业绩增量
　　25年制剂板块收入23.67亿元（-2%yoy），我们预计26年收入增速约10%，其中：1）妇科：25年收入4.22亿元（-5.4%yoy），伴随庚酸炔诺酮、屈螺酮炔雌醇、戊酸雌二醇等新品放量，我们预计26年恢复增长；2）麻醉科：25年收入1.29亿元（-16.8%yoy），主因舒更葡糖钠国家集采降价，我们预期26年小幅下滑；3）呼吸科：25年收入9.44亿元（+7.3%yoy），我们预计26年维持增长；4）皮肤科：25年收入2.41亿元（+3%yoy），我们预期26年个位数增长；5）普药：25年收入4.76亿元（-13%yoy），主因地塞米松磷酸钠纳入第九批集采，黄体酮注射液纳入省级集采，我们预期26年基本持平。
　　授权爱施健中国境内独家推广奥美克松钠，创新管线渐入收获期
　　1）妇科：除已获批的屈螺酮炔雌醇（4M23获批）、戊酸雌二醇（7M24获批）、去氧孕烯炔雌醇片、地屈孕酮（5M25获批）、醋酸甲羟孕酮片（4M26获批）、雌二醇片（9M25获批）外，黄体酮阴道缓释凝胶（2M25申报上市）、雌二醇片/雌二醇地屈孕酮片复合包装（12M25申报上市）；2）麻醉：1类新药奥美克松钠（9M24申报NDA，我们预期即将获批上市，峰值20+亿元；1M26授权爱施健中国境内独家推广服务商，仙琚和奥默各获得未来商业化里程碑和商业化收益的50%）、2类新药CZ1S（术后镇痛，临床3期，我们预期2Q26申报上市）、2类新药CZ006（术后镇痛，临床1期）；3）呼吸：2类新药CZ4D（肺曲霉菌病，临床1期），噻托溴铵奥达特罗吸入喷雾剂BE临床。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到原料药非规市场价格承压，国内市场受集采影响需求下降，同时公司加大研发投入，我们预测公司26-28年归母净利润4.75/5.43/6.17亿元（26/27年下调15/16%），基于SOTP估值，给予公司估值111.72亿元，对应目标价11.29元（前值12.16元）。
　　风险提示：产品销售不及预期，产品降价的风险，研发进度不达预期。