Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical has posted 1Q26 revenue of RMB4.26bn(-2.98%YoY)and an attributable net profit(NP)of RMB454mn(-22.3%YoY),in line with the Wind consensus.While revenue stabilized,profit declined more sharply due to:1)prices of 6APA and other products from Chuanning remaining significantly lower YoY in 1Q26(still below RMB 200/kg);2)the IV infusion segment incurred early payment of business taxes in 1Q,and certain long-aged receivables increased YoY as an isolated factor.Looking to 2026,we expect QoQ profit improvement driven by arecovery in plastic bottle prices for IV infusion,an increased proportion of parenteral nutrition,and afavorable upward trend in 6APA prices.We estimate the core business generating RMB2bn in profit for the year.With SKB264 from Kelun-Biotech ramping up significantly and reducing losses,the apparent annual profit is likely to improve markedly YoY.Maintain BUY.
IV infusion:1Q26 sales increased;positive on profit growth
During 1Q26,the Sichuan-Chongqing alliance procurement for IV infusion was executed and absorbed,while demand improvement drove YoY sales growth,with an increased share of parenteral nutrition products even improving the gross margin.Looking to 2026,we expect profit growth in this segment due to:1)a potential recovery in plastic bottle prices;2)a conservative estimate of 13mn three-chamber parenteral nutrition bags(vs 11.16mn in 2025)and 30mn powder-liquid dual-chamber bags for five basic cephalosporin products under renewed centralized procurement(vs 18.08mn in 2025).
Chuanning:expect profit to stabilize as 6APA prices recover
Chuanning’s 1Q26 revenue was RMB1.09bn(-15.6%YoY),with aprofit of RMB0.11bn(-61.6%YoY).The declines were mainly due to lower 6APA and Penicillin Gprices YoY.Looking to 2026:1)We expect 6APA and Penicillin Gexport prices to rise(latest tax-included quotes above RMB200/kg under the impact of India MIP),with synthetic biology initiatives to reduce losses;2)Corn,coal prices,and sales in India may impact results.We expect revenue to improve and profit to stabilize at Chuanning.The non-infusion segment maintained stable profit QoQ in 1Q26,and considering reduced R&D spending on generics,we expect the generic segment to provide stable cash flow in 2026(limited profit impact from batches 1-8 of centralized procurement).In addition,the company may increase investment in its innovative drugs,with anesthesia,antifungal,and psychiatric products gradually entering clinical trials.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the impact of regional centralized procurement for IV infusion and fluctuations in some intermediate product prices,we maintain our forecasts for 2026/2027/2028 EPS at RMB 1.29/1.67/2.04.We value the stock at 36x 2026E PE(above its peers’average of 34x on Wind consensus,reflecting SKB264 market entry and overseas sales contributions starting 2027),for our target price of RMB46.44.Maintain BUY.
Risks:Regional price pressure for IV infusion,volatility in API/intermediate prices,and impact of centralized procurement for preparations.

　　公司公告1Q26收入42.6亿元（-2.98yoy%），归母净利润4.54亿元（-22.3%yoy），符合Wind一致预期。收入企稳而利润下滑幅度偏大主因：1）川宁6APA等1Q价格同比仍明显偏低拖累利润（1Q26价格仍低于200元/kg）；2）大输液板块1Q有营业税金提前缴纳，及个别长期账龄应收款同比增加等偶发因素影响。展望2026年，我们看好后续季度公司利润环比改善，基于大输液塑瓶价格修复+肠外营养占比提升，6APA价格向上趋势良好，估测全年主业实现20亿利润。考虑博泰年内SKB264起量显著减亏，26年表观利润有望更大幅度同比改善，维持“买入”评级
　　大输液：1Q26销量同比提升，看好塑瓶价格修复+肠外营养起量
　　大输液1Q26川渝联盟集采执行消化中，而需求改善使得销量同比增长，且肠外营养品种占比提升甚至驱动毛利率改善。展望26年，我们看大输液利润端正增长，基于：1）塑瓶价格有望修复；2）肠外营养三腔袋26年保守估测1300万袋销量（25年1116万袋），粉液双室袋5个基础性头孢类品种集采续约成功，看好26年实现3000万袋销量（25年1808万袋）。
　　川宁后续季度受益6APA价格回升，仿制药板块贡献稳定现金流
　　川宁1Q26收入10.9亿元（-15.6%yoy），利润1.1亿元（-61.6%yoy），收入利润下滑主因1Q266APA、青霉素G较去年同期价格口径差影响。展望26年，综合考虑：1）6APA、青霉素G等出口价格提升（印度MIP影响下，目前最新含税报价已超200元/kg）及合成生物学预期明显减亏；和2）玉米煤炭等价格及印度区域销售影响。我们看好26年川宁收入改善，利润企稳。非输液板块1Q26利润环比稳定，考虑公司对于仿制药研发投入下行看好26年仿制药贡献稳定现金流（第1~8批集采接续估测利润影响有限）。此外公司后续季度或加大对于自身创新药的布局，估测26年麻醉、抗真菌感染及精分新品逐步进入临床。
　　创新药：SKB264年内销售/数据披露进展可观，看好博泰显著减亏
　　展望科伦博泰26年，我们看好其：1）商业化方面，SKB264医保后26年销售额有望翻番以上；2）26年国内重磅数据读出：1LNSCLC（PD-L1TPS≥1%）注册型临床PFS中期数据及OSevents有望ASCO读出，1LNSCLC（PD-L1阴性）和1LTNBC关键性临床数据有望ESMO读出；3）MSD也将于26年末-1H27披露SKB264EC/GC/NSCLC等海外后线适应症III期数据，看好27年开启海外商业化。考虑SKB264放量及潜在收款，我们估测26年博泰归母科伦药业有望大幅减亏。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　综合考虑主业受到大输液区域集采及部分中间体价格波动的影响，我们维持公司26-28年EPS为1.29/1.67/2.04元，给予公司26年36倍PE（较可比公司Wind一致预测34倍给予溢价，基于SKB264 26年起进医保放量及27年开始贡献海外销售），维持目标价46.44元，维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：大输液区域价格压力，原料药中间体价格波动，制剂集采影响。

　　投资要点
　　公司业绩短期承压。公司2025年营业收入185.13亿元（同比-15.13%），归母净利润17.02亿元（同比-42.03%），扣非归母净利润15.97亿元（同比-44.99%）；其中，2025Q4单季度营业收入52.36亿元（同比+4.23%，环比24.87%），归母净利润5.01亿元（同比+7.81%，环比+150.58%），扣非归母净利润4.50亿元（同比-1.36%，环比+178.43%）。2025年公司销售毛利率为47.85%（同比-3.84pp），销售净利率10.14%（同比-5.27pp）。业绩承压主要由于输液和抗生素阶段性需求下降，同时受集采影响部分产品价格下降等因素影响。
　　输液和中间体及原料药板块有望企稳回升。2025年公司输液板块销售收入74.84亿元，同比下降16.02%，实现销量39.86亿瓶/袋，同比下降8.31%。输液市场主要受流感等发病率下降、医保控费影响导致市场需求较去年同期明显回落。公司持续优化输液产品结构，多室袋产品实现快速增长，肠外营养三腔袋产品实现销售1116万袋，同比增长30.90%；粉液双室袋产品实现销售1808万袋，同比增长39.39%。随着多室袋产品持续放量及市场需求逐步企稳，我们预计公司输液板块2026年有望逐渐回升。非输液制剂销售收入40.36亿元，同比下降3.20%，塑料水针、抗感染领域部分产品受市场需求回落及集采未中标影响销量下滑。公司在麻醉镇痛、中枢神经、内分泌代谢领域持续深化布局新品。2025年公司抗生素中间体及原料药实现收入44.97亿元，同比下降23.20%，主要受青霉素市场需求下降导致6-APA、青霉素工业盐量价齐跌。根据Wind数据，2026年以来6-APA单价呈回暖态势，我们预计青霉素类中间体2026年量价有望逐步提升。
　　创新药开始放量，产品矩阵不断拓展。2025年创新药销售收入5.43亿元，科伦博泰在国内已获批4个产品8个适应症。其中SKB264有4项适应症获批（二线TNBC、三线及二线EGFR突变NSCLC、二线及以上HR+HER2-BC），其中二线TNBC、三线EGFR突变NSCLC已纳入医保，预计2026年将快速放量。SKB264已启动5项一线注册性临床研究，其中与K药联合一线治疗PD-L1阳性EGFR野生NSCLC的III期临床（vsK药）PFS达到优效，OS也观察到积极趋势；一线TNBC、一线HR+HER2-BC、联合奥希替尼一线EGFR突变NSCLC、联合K药一线PD-L1阴性NSCLC等多项适应症均处于III期注册性临床阶段，市场空间巨大。合作方默沙东正在推进17项针对SKB264作为单药疗法或联K药或其他药物用于多种类型癌症（包括BC、LC、妇科癌症及GI癌症）的全球多中心III期临床研究。此外，PD-1单抗A167获批三线及一线鼻咽癌适应症、西妥昔单抗类似物获批一线结直肠适应症并纳入医保；HER2-ADCA166获批用于HER2阳性二线及以上乳腺癌，成为国产首家广泛用于该适应症的抗HER2药物；RET抑制剂A400已提交NDA，预计2027年H1获批。
　　投资建议：考虑到输液产品区域集采及部分中间体价格波动等因素影响，我们下调2026-2027年盈利预测，新增2028年盈利预测，预计2026-2028年营收分别为200.14/215.09/236.16亿元（2026-2027年原预测为223.71/244.87亿元），归母净利润分别为20.47/23.46/28.01亿元（2026-2027年原预测为28.76/34.18亿元），对应EPS分别为1.28/1.47/1.75元，对应PE分别为27.87/24.31/20.37倍。公司输液和中间体及原料药业务有望企稳向上，创新产品快速放量，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：输液市场需求波动风险；中间体及原料药价格波动风险；创新药商业化不及预期风险等。

　　业绩摘要：2025年公司实现营业收入185.13亿元（-15.1%），归母净利润17.02亿元（-42.0%），毛利率47.85%（-3.8pcts），净利率10.14%（-5.3pcts），销售费用率16.42%（+0.4pcts）、管理费用率6.52%（+0.5pcts）、财务费用率0.39%（+0.1pcts）相对稳定，研发费用率11.91%（+2.0pcts）有所增加，支持创新管线加速推进。2025年公司收入利润下滑主要受输液、非输液制剂需求疲软、集采降价以及原料药中间体部分产品降价等因素影响，2025Q4单季度收入52.36亿元（同比+4.2%，环比+24.9%）、归母净利润5.01亿元（同比+7.8%，环比+150.5%），业绩改善趋势明显。
　　传统主业受需求、集采影响承压，创新药销售大幅增长。分业务板块：1）输液业务收入74.84亿元（-16.0%），毛利率55.51%（-4.7pcts），销量39.86亿瓶/袋（-8.3%），主要受流感发病率下降、联盟采购降价等因素影响，一方面公司通过集约化生产等方式降本增效，同时大力发展以多室袋为代表的新产品；2）非输液收入88.67亿元（-13.9%），其中非输液药品收入40.36亿元（-3.2%），2025年sac-TMT、塔戈利单抗、西妥昔单抗N01、博度曲珠单抗四款新药销售5.43亿元，12月sac-TMT、塔戈利单抗、西妥昔单抗N01成功纳入医保,2026年有望加速放量。抗生素中间体原料药收入44.97亿元（-23.2%），主要受青霉素需求疲软、价格下滑影响，目前青霉素中间体价格呈触底回升态势；此外公司在合成生物学板块持续发力，随着疆宁基地逐步达产及新品拓展，2026年合成生物学业务收入利润预计将显著改善。
　　盈利预测及评级：预计2026-2028年公司收入206.82/226.53/255.55亿元，同比增长11.7%/9.5%/12.8%；归母净利润21.68/25.10/29.62亿元，同比增长27.4%/15.8%/18.0%。基于公司传统主业有望逐步恢复、已上市创新药进医保后有望加速放量，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：产品价格变动风险，市场竞争加剧风险，行业政策变动风险，原材料价格变动风险。

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical(Kelun Pharma)reported 2025 revenue of RMB18.5bn(-15.3%YoY,with 4Q25 revenue-4%YoY)and attributable NP of RMB1.7bn(-42.3%YoY,with 4Q25 NP+8%YoY).This was in line with Wind consensus.The decline in 4Q25 revenue narrowed notably from the first three quarters,and quarterly profit returned to positive growth.This was mainly due to:1)In the core business,4Q25 shipments of large-volume parenterals(LVP)were solid due to flu-related demand,while profit at Chuanning and the generics drug business stabilized and edged up;2)In innovative drugs,Kelun-Biotech booked licensing income in 4Q25;3)Lower generics R&D spending reduced expense ratios.Looking into 2026,we expect the core business to improve,supported by price recovery in plastic-bottle LVP products,higher parenteral nutrition sales,and ahigher 1Q26 export price for 6APA.We expect the core business to contribute RMB2.0bn of profit in 2026.We also expect Kelun-Biotech to narrow its losses this year,supported by post-reimbursement sales ramp-up for SKB264 and related BD payments.As aresult,Kelun Pharma's reported profit in 2026 may improve significantly from 2025.Maintain BUY.
LVP:4Q25 shipments improved QoQ
In 2025,the LVP segment sold 3.99bn bottles/bags(-8.3%YoY),and generated revenue of RMB7.5bn(-16.0%YoY).Even with pressure from competition in lower-tier markets,the renewal of the Guangdong alliance,and volume-based procurement(VBP)by the Sichuan-Chongqing alliance,the segment still delivered solid sales.In 4Q25,shipments rose QoQ,supported by peak-season flu demand.Looking into 2026,we expect LVP profit to recover for three reasons.1)More than 21 provinces nationwide have completed joint procurement or volume-based procurement for infusion-related products.2)Prices for severely underpriced products,including plastic-bottle products,may recover.3)Parenteral nutrition products should continue to ramp up.We conservatively expect annual sales of three-chamber bags to reach 12mn-13mn units in 2026,versus 11.16mn units in 2025,up by 31%YoY.The company also successfully renewed VBP contracts for five basic cephalosporin products in powder-liquid dual-chamber bags.After industrial execution is in place,we expect sales volume to reach 30mn bags.
Earnings forecast and valuation
Considering the impact of provincial VBP in LVPs and price volatility in some intermediates,we estimate EPS of RMB1.29,RMB1.67,and RMB2.04 for 2026-2028.Our previous estimates for 2026 and 2027 were RMB1.83 and RMB2.26,implying cuts of 29%and 26%.We assign 36x 2026E PE.This is apremium to the Wind consensus average of 34x for comparable companies,mainly given reimbursement-driven sales ramp-up for SKB264 from 2026 and overseas sales contribution from 2027.Our target price is RMB46.44,versus the previous RMB43.16 based on 26x 2025E PE.Maintain BUY.
Risks:Price volatility in APIs and intermediates;innovative drug sales ramp-up miss expectations;LVP pricing pressure.