事件：江阴银行披露2025年年报及2026年一季报。25A营业收入、核心营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速分别为4.11%、1.45%、5.67%、0.62%；26Q1营业收入、核心营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速分别为8.18%、5.15%、8.99%、2.50%，增速分别较25A变动+4.07pct、+3.70pct、+3.32pct、+1.88pct，26Q1业绩增速全面回升。
　　具体来看：
　　（1）26Q1贷款增速提高，息差有所波动。26Q1公司贷款规模增速提高，主要是对公端支撑。不过投资类资产增速下降，AC和TPL类资产单季增量规模均为负。公司25A息差环比前三季度上行4bp至1.60%，26Q1又环比下降6bp至1.54%，有一定波动，可能和公司季度间资产投放节奏有关。
　　（2）中收增速回正，AC浮盈兑现力度不低。25A公司净手续费收入同比下降17.7%，26Q1增速由负转正至+3.6%，一方面去年基数较低，另一方面手续费支出降幅较多。其他非息方面，在25Q1公允价值变动损益低基数下，26Q1公允价值变动损益修复性回升，同比增长297.7%，而投资收益同比增速则转负，预计主要是去年Q1因大额配置户收益兑现形成了较高的基数。根据公司报表披露，26Q1AC兑现仍然占总营收的19.81%，公司仍然在继续兑现，这与AC类资产规模下降相对应，可能是出于利率择时判断。
　　（3）资产质量平稳。公司26Q1末贷款不良率为0.82%，环比持平；关注率1.27%，环比下降10bp；25Q4末逾期率1.20%，较25Q2末上升14bp。拨备方面，25Q4末拨备覆盖率329.98%，环比大幅下降41.93pct，但仍保持较高水平，26Q1也略有所回升。资产质量整体保持稳定。
　　（4）分红率提升。公司25年实施了中期分红，同时全年用归母普通股净利润计算的分红率从24年的24.17%提升了2.25pct至26.42%，25年公司还要以资本公积金转增股本的方式向全体股东每10股转增1股，股东回报总体上升。
　　更多详细图表见正文。
　　投资建议：江阴银行扎根本土，对区域经济与客群有着深度理解和渗透，公司规模稳步扩张，拨备较为充足，分红率提升，股东回报增强。预计2026-2028年营业收入分别为44.90/48.88/53.10亿元，同比增长8.8%/8.9%/8.6%；归母净利润为21.25/22.55/24.33亿元，同比增长3.7%/6.1%/7.9%。对应EPS分别为0.86/0.92/0.99元，对应2026年5月8日股价的PE分别为5.2/4.9/4.5倍。首次覆盖，给予“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：经济增长不及预期；宏观政策力度不及预期；存款竞争加剧。

For 2025, revenue/attributable net profit (NP) rose by 4.1/0.6% YoY. The latter's growth missed our estimate of 14.9%, mainly because the bank increased impairment provisions to proactively manage risks. For 1Q26, revenue rose by 8.2% YoY (+4.1pp vs 2025), and attributable NP rose by 2.5% YoY (+1.9pp vs 2025). The bank plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB0.22 per share for 2025, with an annual cash dividend payout ratio of 26% (2024: 24%) and a dividend yield of 4.88% (as of 28 April 2026). Meanwhile, it plans a 1-for-10 bonus issue via capital reserve. The bank boasts a clear location advantage and deeply engages in the real economy. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
NIM rose YoY
For 1Q26, total assets/loans/deposits rose by 7.4/8.8/7.8% (-2.1/+1.1/-2.1pp vs the end of 2025). Structurally, corporate/retail/discounted bills accounted for 92/16/-9% of newly issued loans. The proportion of corporate loan balance climbed by 1.0pp vs 2025 to 74.2%. For 1Q26, net interest margin (NIM) was 1.54% (-6bp vs 2025/+3bp YoY). Affected by factors such as asset structure arrangement, the first quarter was a relatively low season for the bank's NIM. For 2025, yields on interest-earning assets/loans fell by 2/6bp vs 1H25 to 3.00/3.57%. The cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities/deposit interest rate dropped by 7/8bp vs 1H25 to 1.56/1.53%. Falling liability costs effectively alleviated the pressure on the asset side. For 1Q26, net interest income rose by 5.2% YoY (+3.1pp vs 2025).
Non-interest income growth accelerated
For 1Q26, non-interest income rose by 13.0% YoY (+4.1pp vs 2025). Specifically, net fee and commission income rose by 3.6% YoY, reversing the decline in 2025, mainly because fee expenses fell by 36.7% YoY. For 1Q26, other non-interest income rose by 13.8% YoY (+2.4pp vs 2025). In 2025, investment income helped stabilize earnings growth. The disposal income of assets booked under AC & OCI accounted for 17/34% of revenue/profit. In 1Q26, investment income fell YoY, but the contribution of fair value changes turned from RMB-30mn in 1Q25 to RMB+60mn, becoming the core driver behind non-interest income growth. For 1Q26, the cost-to-income ratio fell by 0.6pp YoY to 24.7%, indicating optimized operating costs.
Provision efforts increased, and risk buffers remained thick
For 1Q26, the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio/provision coverage ratio was 0.82/330%, both flat vs 2025. Overall asset quality remained stable. In 4Q25/1Q26, credit impairment provisions rose by 19.0/12.9% YoY, showing an accelerated pace. Specifically, credit impairment provisions for 2025 fell by 20.98% YoY, and non-credit provisions turned positive. For 1Q26, the proportion of special mention loans was 1.27% (-10bp vs 2025), indicating improved forward-looking risks. For 1Q26, capital adequacy ratio (CAR)/core tier-1 CAR was 14.54/13.39% (-0.23/-0.24pp vs 2025), remaining at a leading level among listed banks. We think the bank's strong capital should support balance sheet expansion and dividend hikes.
2026 target PB ratio: 0.60x
To factor in increased provisions, we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 18/23% to RMB2,134/2,263mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB2,424mn. Our 2026E BVPS is RMB8.61 (previous: RMB9.13), implying a PB ratio of 0.52x. We value the stock at 0.60x 2026E PB (previous: 0.65x 2025E PB), a premium over its peers' average of 0.54x on Wind consensus (previous: 0.60x 2025E PB) to factor in the bank's clear location advantage. Our target price is RMB5.17 (previous: RMB5.40). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: Weaker policy implementation and economic recovery than we expect.

　　2025年江阴银行营业收入、归母净利润同比+4.1%、+0.6%。25年利润增速低于我们此前预期（14.9%），主要由于公司为前瞻应对风险、提升减值计提。26Q1公司经营表现有所修复，营收同比+8.2%，归母净利润+2.5%，较25A+4.1pct、+1.9pct。2025年拟每股派息0.22元，年度现金分红比例为26%（2024年:24%），股息率为4.88%（2026/4/28），同时拟以资本公积金转增股本的方式每10股转增1股。公司区域优势明显，深耕实体经济，维持“增持”评级。
　　对公驱动增长，息差同比提升
　　26Q1总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+7.4%、+8.8%、+7.8%，较25年末-2.1pct、+1.1pct、-2.1pct。结构上，对公为信贷主要投放方向，26Q1新增贷款中对公/零售/贴现占比分别为92%/16%/-9%，对公贷款余额占比较25A提升1.0pct至74.2%。26Q1净息差1.54%，较25A-6bp，但同比提升3bp，或受资产结构摆布等影响，一季度为公司息差相对低点。25A生息资产收益率、贷款收益率较25H1-2bp、-6bp至3.00%、3.57%，计息负债成本率、存款付息率较25H1-7bp、-8bp至1.56%、1.53%，负债成本下行有效缓解了资产端压力。26Q1利息净收入同比+5.2%，较25A+3.1pct。
　　非息增长提速，运营成本优化
　　26Q1非息收入同比+13.0%，增速较25A+4.1pct。其中，26Q1手续费及佣金净收入同比+3.6%，扭转2025年的负增长态势，主要由于手续费支出受当期结算业务手续费减少影响，同比下降36.7%。26Q1其他非息收入同比提升13.8%，增速较25A+2.4pct。25年投资收益兑现稳定业绩增长，AC+OCI处置收益分别占营收、利润比例为17%、34%。26Q1投资收益兑现力度同比下降，但公允价值变动损益由25Q1的-0.3亿元转为本期+0.6亿元，成为非息收入增长的核心驱动力。26Q1成本收入比同比-0.6pct至24.7%，运营成本优化。
　　计提力度提升，风险抵补充裕
　　26Q1公司不良贷款率、拨备覆盖率分别为0.82%、330%，均较25年持平,公司整体资产质量表现维持稳定。25Q4、26Q1单季度信用减值损失分别同比+19.0%、12.9%，计提节奏有所加快，其中25年信贷减值计提同比-20.98%，非信贷计提由负转正。26Q1关注类贷款占比为1.27%，较25A-10bp，前瞻风险改善。26Q1公司资本充足率、核心一级资本充足率分别为14.54%、13.39%，较25A-0.23pct、-0.24pct，仍处于上市银行同业领先水平，公司资本实力较强，支撑扩表与分红提升。
　　给予26年目标PB0.60倍
　　鉴于减值力度提升，我们预测公司26-28年归母净利润为21.34亿元、22.63亿元、24.24亿元（较26-27年前值分别-18%、-23%），26年BVPS预测值8.61元（前值26E9.13元），对应PB0.52倍。可比公司26年Wind一致预测PB均值0.54倍（前值25E0.60倍），我们认为公司区域优势明显，应享受一定估值溢价，给予25年目标PB0.60倍（前值25E0.65倍），目标价5.17元（前值5.40元），维持增持评级。
　　风险提示：政策推进力度不及预期；经济修复力度不及预期。