Channel Shift Weighs on Sales But Improves Earnings Quality
发布时间:2026-04-14 来源:华泰证券
Yankershop Food(Yankdershop)has reported revenue,an attributable NP,and arecurring NP of RMB5.8bn,RMB748mn,and RMB710mn in 2025,+8.6%,+16.9%,and+25.9%YoY,respectively.For 4Q25,revenue,the attributable NP,and the recurring NP were RMB1.3bn,RMB140mn,and RMB160mn,-7.5%,-2.1%YoY,and+12.1%YoY,respectively.The 2025 results were below our previous expectations,as we had forecast 2025 revenue and attributable NP of RMB6.0bn and RMB840mn.The weak revenue growth in 4Q25 mainly reflected the timing shift of the Lunar New Year and the continued adjustment of e-commerce channels.On the profit side,the adjusted gross margin(gross margin less selling expense ratio)and the recurring net margin increased by 3.8pp and 2.1pp YoY in 4Q25.Since 2025,the company has further shifted toward acategory brand strategy.On the product side,it captured the tailwind from the konjac category.On the channel side,it has proactively scaled back livestreaming e-commerce channels with high spending and low profitability,while strengthening its presence in high-value channels such as membership-based supermarkets and traditional distribution channels.Product and channel mix improved significantly.Looking ahead,the impact of e-commerce adjustment on revenue should gradually fade in 2026.We expect deeper cooperation with Sam’s Club and continued expansion of konjac distribution outlets to support avirtuous cycle of category-brand-driven revenue growth and margin improvement.Maintain BUY.
Category brand strategy+channel mix optimization
On the product side,2025 revenue from konjac snacks,seafood snacks,healthy egg products,casual soy products,dried fruit and jelly,baked potato products,and other products reached RMB1.7bn,RMB760mn,RMB630mn,RMB360mn,RMB750mn,RMB900mn,and RMB630mn,+107.2%,+12.5%,+8.4%,-0.4%,+4.3%,-22.4%,and-35.3%YoY,respectively.Damowang delivered strong growth in konjac products.In egg products,the company focused on cooperation with high-value channels such as Sam’s Club.For products such as potato chips,the company proactively adjusted its strategy,which exerted pressure on revenue.On the channel side,2025 revenue from offline and online channels reached RMB4.8bn and RMB920mn,+16.8%and-20.5%YoY,respectively.The e-commerce channel declined YoY because the company proactively cut low-profitability SKUs and focused on value growth.Within offline channels,Danhuang recorded strong volume growth at Sam’s Club,which drove rapid growth in membership-based supermarkets.The traditional distribution channel accelerated end-point outlet expansion on the back of the flagship konjac product.In the discount retail channel,the company strengthened cooperation with leading and mid-tier brands,and growth remained intact as downstream store openings continued.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Given the greater-than-expected intensity of the company’s e-commerce adjustment and the time still needed for it to play out,we revise down our earnings estimates.We now forecast EPS of RMB3.17 and RMB3.80 for 2026 and 2027,down by 15%and 12%from our previous estimates,and introduce our 2028 EPS forecast of RMB4.31.We apply avaluation 22x 2026E PE,in line with its peers’average on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB69.84(previously RMB89.52,based on 24x 2026E PE).Maintain BUY.
Risks:intensifying industry competition,weaker macroeconomic performance than we expect,and food-safety issues.