事件：公司公告2026年中报，实现营收10.15亿元，同比下降8.37%；归母净利润为3.41亿元，同比下降22.73%；扣非后归母净利润为3.38亿元，同比下降23.78%。
　　钛矿市场弱势拖累公司钛精矿业务表现，铁精矿业务稳定。根据公司中报：
　　一、行业层面：2026H1国内钛矿市场整体呈现震荡下行并逐步企稳的态势。1-2月正值传统淡季，价格窄幅波动；3-4月市场全面复工，而下游需求未同步回暖，钛矿价格有所下跌；5月市场行情迎来转折，结束下跌态势；6月受下游钛白粉消费淡季影响，叠加硫磺、硫酸价格上涨，钛矿市场保持弱势运行。1）供给端：根据百川盈孚数据统计，2026H1国内钛矿产量为319.61万吨，较上年同期减少14.08万吨；进口钛矿287.93万吨，较上年同期增加32万吨。2）需求端：2026H1国内海绵钛累计产量15.11万吨，环比增长约3万吨，增幅约为24.98%，产量规模创历史同期新高，行业供应能力持续扩张。从月度走势来看，产量呈现“逐月攀升、前低后高”的阶梯式增长特征。2026H1国内钛白粉行业产量约为242.17万吨，较去年同期基本持平。从生产工艺分类来看，氯化法钛白粉产量增长较为明显，上半年产量达到40.95万吨，环比增长3.5万吨，增幅约为9.35%；硫酸法钛白粉产量增速明显放缓，主要系成本端硫磺、硫酸价格持续高位，导致部分企业生产成本压力加大，开工率有所降低。
　　二、公司层面：1）钛精矿业务实现营收4.18亿元，同比下降21.65%；毛利率为65.08%，同比下降5.77个百分点；2）钒钛铁精矿业务实现营收5.39亿元，同比增长8.11%；毛利率为58.83%，同比提升7.81个百分点；3）综合利用产品业务实现营收4.84亿元，同比下降33.20%；毛利率为42.34%，同比下降1.69个百分点。
　　盈利预测：考虑到钛矿价格下降，我们下调公司2026-2028年EPS分别为1.37、1.57、1.82元，对应PE分别为19、17、14倍，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：宏观经济波动、下游需求、部分数据陈旧、钛矿价格下降风险等。

　　【核心结论】我们预测，2026-2028年，公司归母净利润分别为7.12、8.09、9.00亿元，EPS为1.51、1.71、1.91元，PE为17、15、13倍，给予2026年24倍PE，对应目标价格为35.60元/股，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
　　【报告亮点】市场认为公司是跟随钛矿价格波动的β型品种，但是我们认为公司通过收购小黑箐经质铁矿增厚自身资源储备，将原有优势进一步增强；顺从产业发展趋势，下游延伸做“钛矿-钛（合金）材料”纵向一体化，资源属性强、成长性强、兼顾股东回报，核心竞争优势彰显，是稀缺的α型公司。
　　【主要逻辑】
　　一、横向：钛属于稀缺的战略资源，收购小黑箐经质铁矿增厚钛矿资源储备。钛在金属材料中被称为“全能金属”，被广泛应用于航空、航天、舰船及兵器等领域。2）无论是全球钛资源，还是作为产量贡献最大的中国钛资源，储量都在逐年下降，中国钛矿资源集中于四川攀西地区，四家龙头公司产量集中度较高、拥有较强话语权。3）2025年，公司横向外延扩张收购小黑箐经质铁矿，小黑箐资源储量丰富，收购完成后可有效增加公司资源储备、减少两矿之间的潜在安全隐患和矛盾纠纷、赋能后实现更强的协同效应。
　　二、纵向：向下游延伸6万吨钛合金项目，一体化优势彰显、市场空间广阔。1）中国的海绵钛和钛材产业发展速度快，但是存在中低端产能过剩、高端供给不足的困境，行业面临结构性调整。2）过往钛行业需求长期依赖航空航天与化工两大领域，我们预计2026年将成为“军/民并重、民用为主”的转折点，民用需求占比将升至60%-65%，民用市场潜力更大、空间更广阔。3）公司向下游延伸6万吨能源级钛合金材料全产业链项目，顺应产业一体化、高端化发展趋势，预计投产后净利润为8.74亿元/年、项目回收期为8.24年。
　　三、钒钛铁精矿价格持续上涨，周边需求稳定、钒液流电池拓展新下游领域。钒钛铁精矿价格连续三年上涨，一方面攀西及周边地区需求较为稳定；另一方面，全钒液流储能迎来较快发展机遇，钒钛铁精矿的成长天花板有望打开。
　　风险提示：宏观经济和政策、项目进展、下游需求、部分数据陈旧风险等。

Anning Iron&Titanium has reported 1H26 revenue of RMB1,010mn(-8%YoY),attributable net profit of RMB340mn(-23%YoY),and recurring net profit of RMB340mn(-24%YoY).2Q26 attributable net profit was RMB190mn(-11%YoY,+23%QoQ),and recurring net profit was RMB180mn(-13%YoY,+21%QoQ).For 2Q26,net profit beat our estimate of RMB140mn,driven by higher titanium ore output on downstream demand and lower losses from the Jingzhi Minerals suspension.Maintain OVERWEIGHT as the company's scarce titanium ore resources should continue to support its earnings.

Titanium concentrate prices fell YoY in 1H26
Titanium concentrate:higher overseas output and softer downstream titanium dioxide demand pushed the domestic titanium concentrate price down 26%YoY to RMB1,468/tonne in 1H26,per oilchem.net.Titanium concentrate revenue fell 22%YoY to RMB420mn,with gross margin down 5.8pp YoY to 65%.Vanadium-titanium iron ore concentrate:iron ore prices rose slightly YoY in 1H26,lifting revenue 8%YoY to RMB540mn,with gross margin up 7.8pp YoY to 59%.Blended gross margin rose 1pp YoY to 60.9%in 1H26,while the expense ratio rose 10ppYoY to 17.0%,as losses from the suspended Jingzhi Minerals were booked in administrative expenses and higher debt drove up finance costs.In 2Q26,gross margin rose 2pp YoY and was flat QoQ at 61%,while the expense ratio rose 7ppYoY and fell 3pp QoQ to 15.7%.

60ktpa energy-grade titanium project due online by end-2026
Per Baiinfo,the domestic titanium concentrate price averaged RMB1,190/tonne on 28August,down 14%from end-2Q26.Softer downstream titanium dioxide demand and higher titanium ore imports have left the market temporarily oversupplied,extending the price decline.Longer term,we expect the titanium concentrate cycle to improve,as lower global exploration capex and declining high-grade ore supply keep quality titanium resources scarce.Per the May announcement,the company plans to raise RMB2.5bn via convertible bonds to build the Duqinggou tailings pond and other projects,unlocking value from the Panjiatian mine tailings.Per the 1H26 report,the 60ktpa energy-grade titanium project has been delayed to 31 October 2026,while the company continues to push for resumption of Jingzhi Minerals.We expect its titanium resource scale advantage to strengthen.

Earnings forecasts and valuation
We cut our 2026/27/28 attributable net profit forecasts to RMB729/813/869mn(-13/-10/-7%from RMB842/905/964mn),reflecting lower titanium concentrate prices.This implies EPS of RMB1.54/1.72/1.84.We apply a2027E PE of 20x,a premium to the 14x average 2027E PE of peers on Wind consensus,reflecting the company's leading position and scarce titanium ore resources.Our target price is RMB34.40(from RMB37.38,based on 21x 2026E PE vs peers'15x).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Risks:persistently weak downstream demand,and slower ramp-up of new projects than we expect.

　　安宁股份于8月27日发布2026中报：26上半年实现营业收入10.1亿元，同比-8%，归母净利润3.4亿元，同比-23%，扣非净利润3.4亿元，同比-24%；其中Q2实现归母净利润1.9亿元，同比-11%/环比+23%，扣非净利润1.8亿元，同比-13%/环比+21%。公司26Q2净利润高于我们的预期（1.4亿元），原因系下游需求支撑下钛矿产量环比有所上升，以及经质矿产未复工损失减少。考虑公司掌握钛矿稀缺资源禀赋，有望持续支撑盈利中枢，我们维持“增持”评级。
　　上半年钛精矿价格同比下滑，公司期间费用率同比增加较多
　　钛精矿方面，受26上半年海外钛矿产量增加，叠加下游钛白粉需求放缓影响，据隆众资讯，26H1国内钛精矿均价同比-26%至1468元/吨，公司上半年钛精矿业务营收同比-22%至4.2亿元，毛利率同比-5.8pct至65%。钒钛铁精矿方面，因26上半年铁矿石价格同比小幅上升，公司钒钛铁精矿业务营收同比+8%至5.4亿元，毛利率同比+7.8pct至59%。26H1公司综合毛利率同比+1pct至60.9%，期间费用率同比+10pct至17.0%，期间费用率增加的原因为公司收购的经质矿产未复工损失计入管理费用，且公司负债规模增加导致财务费用增长。其中Q2毛利率同比+2pct/环比持平至61%，期间费用率同比+7/环比-3pct至15.7%。
　　短期钛矿价格承压，6万吨能源级钛材有望于26年内投产
　　据百川盈孚，8月28日国内钛精矿市场均价1190元/吨，较Q2末-14%，下游钛白粉需求承压，叠加钛矿进口量增加，供需阶段性宽松下国内钛矿价格延续下行。长期而言，受全球勘探资本开支下降、高品位矿减少等因素影响，且钛矿供给格局维持较好，全球优质钛矿资源仍较为稀缺，我们看好中长期钛矿景气或迎改善。据5月公告，公司计划募资25亿元可转债建设对箐沟尾矿库等项目，充分挖掘潘家田矿山尾矿价值。据26中报，公司6万吨能源级钛材项目延期至26年10月31日，同时继续推进经质矿产复工复产，公司钛资源规模优势有望持续巩固。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　由于钛精矿价格下滑，我们下调盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为7.3/8.1/8.7亿元（前值为8.4/9.0/9.6亿元，下调幅度13%/10%/7%），对应EPS为1.54/1.72/1.84元。结合可比公司27年Wind一致预期平均14xPE，考虑公司作为钛矿领域头部企业，掌握稀缺资源禀赋，给予公司27年20xPE，目标价34.40元（前值为37.38元，对应26年21xPEvs可比公司15xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求持续低迷；新项目投产进度不达预期。

Anning Iron and Titanium's 2025 revenue was RMB2.0bn(+8%YoY),attributable net profit(NP)was RMB720mn(-15%YoY),and recurring NP was RMB730mn(-14%YoY).For 1Q26,attributable NP was RMB150mn(-34%YoY,+76%QoQ),and recurring NP was RMB150mn(-34%YoY,+75%QoQ).The company's 1Q26 attributable NP missed our estimate of RMB180mn due to expenses from Jingzhi Minerals(which had not resumed production).The company plans to distribute adividend of RMB142mn at the end of 2025,accounting for 20%of its annual attributable NP.We expect rare titanium ore resources to continue supporting its profitability and maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2025:average titanium concentrate price fell YoY
According to Baiinfo,the average domestic price of titanium concentrate fell by 13%YoY to RMB1,810/tonne in 2025.The company's annual titanium concentrate revenue dropped by 16%YoY to RMB930mn,and sales volume grew by 0.5%YoY to 447k tonnes.As titanium ore prices fell,GPM dropped by 4.4pp YoY to 72%.The company's vanadium-titanium iron concentrate revenue climbed by 33%YoY to RMB930mn,sales volume grew by 26%YoY to 1,330k tonnes,and GPM rose by 11pp YoY to 55%,driven by growing output from downstream steel mills in regions surrounding Panzhihua.In September 2024,the company's ultra-fine titanium recovery project was successfully put into production,which improved the utilization rate of titanium tailings.For 2025,the comprehensive utilization product revenue was RMB148mn,and GPM was 49%.For 2025,the company's overall GPM fell by 3.0pp YoY to 62.3%,and the overall expense ratio climbed by 4.0pp YoY to 12.3%,because the depreciation and amortization of Jingzhi Minerals acquired in 2025 before resuming production were included in administrative expenses.
Titanium concentrate price continued dropping in 1Q26
According to Baiinfo,for 1Q26,the average domestic price of titanium concentrate fell by 23%YoY/5%QoQ to RMB1,580/tonne.The price of titanium concentrate continued to drop,as downstream titanium dioxide demand remained soft.For 1Q26,the company's overall GPM fell by 0.9pp YoY/0.4pp QoQ to 60.9%,and the overall expense ratio climbed by 12pp YoY and dropped by 5.2pp QoQ to 18.4%.The depreciation and amortization expenses of Jingzhi Minerals before resuming production continued to increase the company's administrative expense ratio.
Energy-grade titanium materials:facility to come on line in 1H
According to Baiinfo,the average market price of titanium concentrate on 24 April was RMB1,425/tonne(-6.6%vs the end of March).As downstream titanium dioxide demand remained under pressure and imported titanium ore prices dropped,domestic titanium concentrate prices continued falling.In the long run,as global exploration capital expenditures drop,high-grade ore supply declines,and supply remains disciplined,we expect global high-quality titanium ore resources to remain rare.In the medium to long term,titanium ore business climate should improve.According to the 2025 annual report,the company's 60ktpa energy-grade titanium material project is scheduled to be put into production in 1H26.Meanwhile,Jingzhi Minerals is on track to resume production.We expect the company's scale edges in titanium resources to be further consolidated.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
To factor in weakening titanium concentrate supply-demand dynamics,we lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 16/16%to RMB840/900mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB960mn,implying 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB1.78/1.92/2.04.We value the stock at 21x 2026E PE,a premium over its peers'average of 15x on Wind consensus,considering that the company is aleading titanium miner with rare resources.Our target price is RMB37.38(previous:RMB38.16,based on 18x 2026E PE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks:Downstream demand remaining sluggish;slower new project commissioning than we expect.

　　安宁股份发布2025年报及2026一季报：25年实现营收20亿元，同比+8%，归母净利润7.2亿元，同比-15%，扣非净利润7.3亿元，同比-14%；26Q1实现归母净利润1.5亿元，同比-34%/环比+76%，扣非净利润1.5亿元，同比-34%/环比+75%。公司26Q1归母净利润低于我们的预期（1.8亿元），原因系经质矿产未复工费用影响。公司计划25年末分红1.42亿元，占全年归母净利润20%。考虑公司掌握钛矿稀缺资源禀赋，有望持续支撑盈利中枢，我们维持“增持”评级。
　　25年钛精矿均价同比下跌，公司铁精矿业务盈利改善
　　钛精矿方面，据百川盈孚，25年国内钛精矿均价同比-13%至1810元/吨，公司全年钛精矿业务营收同比-16%至9.3亿元，销量同比+0.5%至44.7万吨，受钛矿价格下降影响，毛利率同比-4.4pct至72%。钒钛铁精矿方面，因攀枝花地区周边下游钢厂产量增长，带动公司钒钛铁精矿业务营收同比+33%至9.3亿元，销量同比+26%至133万吨，毛利率同比+11pct至55%。24年9月公司超细粒级选钛回收技改顺利投产，提高钛尾矿利用率，25年实现综合利用产品业务营收1.48亿元，毛利率达49%。25年公司综合毛利率同比-3.0pct至62.3%，期间费用率同比+4.0pct至12.3%，原因系公司年内收购的经质矿产复工复产前的折旧、摊销等计入了管理费用。
　　26Q1钛精矿价格仍有下滑，经质矿产折旧费用拖累管理费用率
　　钛精矿方面，据百川盈孚，26Q1国内钛精矿均价同比-23%/环比-5%至1580元/吨，受下游钛白粉需求承压影响，钛精矿价格延续下跌。公司26年一季度综合毛利率同比-0.9pct/环比-0.4pct至60.9%，期间费用率同比+12pct/环比-5.2pct至18.4%，经质矿产复工前的折旧、摊销等费用仍对公司管理费用率有较大影响。
　　短期钛矿需求有所承压，6万吨能源级钛材有望于26H1投产
　　据百川盈孚，4月24日钛精矿市场均价为1425元/吨，较3月底-6.6%，下游钛白粉需求承压，叠加进口钛矿价格亦有跌幅，国内钛精矿价格延续下行。长期而言，受全球勘探资本开支下降、高品位矿减少等因素影响，且钛矿供给格局维持较好，全球优质钛矿资源仍较为稀缺，我们看好中长期钛矿景气或迎改善。据25年报，公司6万吨能源级钛材项目计划于26年上半年投产，同时继续推进经质矿产复工复产，公司钛资源规模优势有望持续巩固。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　由于钛精矿景气度下滑，我们下调盈利预测，预计公司26-28年归母净利润为8.4/9.0/9.6亿元（26-27年预测前值为10.0/10.7亿元，下调幅度16%/16%），对应EPS为1.78/1.92/2.04元。结合可比公司26年Wind一致预期平均15xPE，考虑公司作为钛矿领域头部企业，掌握稀缺资源禀赋，给予公司26年21xPE，目标价37.38元（前值为38.16元，对应26年18xPEvs可比公司13xPE），维持“增持”评级。
　　风险提示：下游需求持续低迷；新项目投产进度不达预期。