Diversified Engines Driving 2026 Outlook
发布时间:2026-05-26 来源:华泰证券
In 2025, Lepu Medical recorded revenue, attributable NP, and ex-nonrecurring attributable NP of RMB6.5bn, RMB962mn, and RMB842mn (+6.2%, +289.6%, and +280.5% YoY), in line with its profit alert. In 1Q26, revenue, attributable NP, and ex-nonrecurring attributable NP were RMB1.7bn, RMB247mn, and RMB241mn (-3.7%, -34.8%, and -28.5% YoY). The earnings downturn was mainly on proactively controlled shipments and channel inventory ahead of VBP for related device and pharmaceutical products. In addition, the company's convertible bonds were redeemed at maturity in 1Q26. The premium above the face value and the final coupon interest was recorded as current-period expenses. Excluding this one-off impact, 1Q26 ex-nonrecurring attributable NP was -3.7% YoY. Given the strong competitiveness of the company's three core businesses, and the orderly progress of emerging businesses such as innovative drugs and dermatology, we are positive on steady development in 2026. Maintain BUY.
1Q26 GPM slightly narrowed on VBP; R&D remained intensive
1Q26 gross margin came in at 62.0% (-2.0pp YoY), mainly due to policy impacts such as VBP for related products. In 1Q26, selling, G&A, and R&D expense ratios were 14.7%, 7.7%, and 14.4%, respectively, -2.4pp YoY, -0.3pp YoY, and +2.7pp YoY. Lepu Medical continued to strengthen R&D in new products. While deepening and broadening its product portfolio, it raised overall barriers to competitiveness.
Early benefits from diversification kicking in
1) Medical devices: revenue in 2025 and 1Q26 was RMB3.3bn and RMB844mn (-2.2% and -6.7% YoY). Within this, the structural heart disease business led segment growth as multiple new products ramped up, with revenue +12.4% YoY in 2025 and +4.0% YoY in 1Q26. We are positive that segment revenue will return to steady growth in 2026. 2) Pharmaceuticals: revenue in 2025 and 1Q26 was RMB2.2bn and RMB567mn (+23.2% and -4.6% YoY). The company actively promoted innovative drug business development and generated formulation (innovative drug) revenue of RMB227mn through BD for the first time in 2025. We are positive that the segment will improve in 2026, supported by active improvement in the basic pharmaceutical business and continued breakthroughs in innovative drugs. 3) Medical services and health management: revenue in 2025 and 1Q26 was RMB1.1bn and RMB261mn (+4.4% and +9.8% YoY). Dermatology products contributed revenue of RMB115mn and RMB37mn, respectively, and have become an important new growth driver for the segment. We are positive that the segment will achieve faster development in 2026 as new dermatology products are launched and ramp up.
Earnings forecast and valuation
Considering the impact of VBP related to devices and pharmaceuticals on the company's revenue growth, we expect 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP of RMB1.2bn/RMB1.3bn/RMB1.5bn, representing revisions of -12% and -18% versus our previous 2026 and 2027 forecasts. The company has a diversified business portfolio and relatively comprehensive domestic and overseas sales channel coverage. We apply a multiple of 36x 2026E PE, versus the Wind consensus average of 32x for comparable companies, and derive a target price of RMB22.84 (previously RMB22.63, on 40x 2025E PE versus the comparable-company average of 37x PE).
Risks: Product sales falling short of our expectations, R&D progress being slower than we expected, and tender price cuts.