公司能效管理产品持续升级迭代。公司专注于从事中低压企业微电网能效管理所需的设备和系统的研发、生产、销售及服务，目前公司实现了三个阶段的产品升级，一是从硬件（含嵌入式软件）发展到EMS1.0阶段，具备自动化、数字化特征；二是EMS1.0发展到EMS2.0（AcrelEMS能效管理平台）的阶段，实现了平台化，打破信息孤岛、互联互通的特征；三是EMS3.0（安科瑞微电网智慧能源平台）阶段，在EMS2.0平台的基础上并入光储充平台，真正实现源网荷储充一体化柔性控制，实现互联、互通、互动。
　　聚焦主业，产品覆盖下游多个应用场景。公司产品覆盖低碳园区、智慧医院、轨道交通等场景，推动AI与能源管理深度融合，助力光储充一体化与虚拟电厂应用。2025年实现营业收入10.94亿元，同比增长2.90%；归母净利润达2.05亿元，同比增长20.81%，主业韧性与盈利显著增强。
　　企业微电网系统市场空间广阔，渗透率有望持续上行。根据国家电网统计，我国供电电压等级大于等于10kV的工商业用户超过200万户，若企业微电网系统的平均单价为100万元，则远期潜在市场容量将达到2万亿元。目前企业微电网系统的渗透率仍处于较低水平，假设渗透率为40%的情况下，市场规模有望达到8000亿元。
　　海外市场持续开拓，收入持续增长。海外市场仍以东南亚为战略支点，覆盖欧洲、中东、非洲等地，通过设立当地代理商的模式和自有海外销售团队同步推进，25年公司海外的营业收入实现0.55亿元，较上年同期增长24.01%（不包含通过国内外贸公司销往海外的收入）。
　　投资建议：我们预计公司26-28年实现归母净利润2.67/3.32/4.10亿元，同比+29.9%/+24.4%/+23.5%，对应EPS为1.06/1.32/1.63元。公司下游市场空间广阔，海外市场持续开拓，给予公司“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：宏观需求下滑，海外开拓风险等

Shanghai Acrel(Acrel)reported 1Q26 revenue of RMB259mn(+6.64%YoY,+0.82%QoQ),attributable NP of RMB50.3mn(-3.65%YoY,+288.51%QoQ),and recurring NP of RMB44.2mn(-11.47%YoY).Benefiting from improving downstream demand,the company delivered steady revenue growth.Profit declined YoY mainly because higher share-based incentive expenses pushed up expense ratios.We believe downstream demand could continue to recover steadily,supported by policies related to microgrids and virtual power plants.Maintain BUY.
ST pressure on 1Q26 NPM,but arecovery expected for 2026
Net margin(NPM)came in at 19.36%(-2.08pp YoY)in 1Q26.The decline mainly reflected higher expense ratios.In 1Q26,the selling,administrative,and R&D expense ratios were 12.36%,6.95%,and 11.58%,respectively(+1.24pp/+1.19pp/+1.29pp YoY).The increase in the selling expense ratio mainly reflected the redoubled effort to expand overseas markets.Faster development in new products likely accounted for the increase in the R&D expense ratio.The increase in the administrative expense ratio mainly reflected higher share-based incentive expenses.We believe period expense ratios could return to normal levels over the full year.Gross margin stood at 48.70%(+1.20pp YoY)in 1Q26,benefiting from continued optimization of the product mix.Overall,we believe full-year net margin is likely to recover in 2026.
Active overseas expansion,more GPM expansion likely ahead
Acrel continues to implement its overseas expansion strategy,using Southeast Asia as astrategic base.Its business now covers Europe,the Middle East,and Africa,among other regions.As the company strengthened its overseas sales team,the selling expense ratio in 1Q26 was higher(+1.24pp YoY).The company is advancing through both local agents and its own overseas sales team,and it has gradually built up overseas customers and brand recognition.Based on the 2025 annual report,gross margin for the overseas and domestic business was 65.74%and 45.44%,respectively.We believe blended gross margin has further room for improvement as overseas business ramps up and revenue contribution increases.
Earnings forecast and valuation
We maintain our 2026-2028 attributable NP forecasts at RMB314mn/RMB386mn/RMB513mn,implying athree-year CAGR of 35.71%.Corresponding EPS is RMB1.25/RMB1.54/RMB2.04.Comparable companies are trading at 21.2x 2026E PE based on Wind consensus estimates.Given the company’s strong competitive advantage in software,we apply amultiple of 30x 2026E PE to earnings to derive atarget price of RMB37.50(unchanged).Maintain BUY.
Risks:Slower-than-expected construction of the new power system,and slower-than-expected rollout of EMS 3.0 products.

　　安科瑞发布一季报，26Q1实现营收2.59亿元（yoy+6.64%、qoq+0.82%），归母净利5027.32万元（yoy-3.65%、qoq+288.51%），扣非净利4419.87万元（yoy-11.47%）。受益于下游需求改善，公司营收稳健增长，公司盈利同比下滑主要由于股权激励费用增加导致费用率上涨。我们认为，受益于微电网及虚拟电厂相关政策，公司下游需求有望稳步释放，维持“买入”。
　　26Q1净利率短期承压，看好全年盈利修复
　　26Q1公司净利率为19.36%，同比下滑2.08pct，公司净利率下滑主要由于费用率上涨。26Q1公司销售/管理/研发费率分别为12.36%、6.95%、11.58%，分别同比+1.24、+1.19、+1.29pct，销售费率增长主要考虑到公司加大海外市场拓展力度，研发费率增长主要考虑到新产品投入加快，管理费率增长主要由于股权激励费用增加。我们认为，全年维度看公司期间费率有望恢复正常水平。26Q1公司综合毛利率为48.70%，同比+1.20pct，毛利率提升得益于产品结构持续优化。综合来看，26年全年净利率有望修复。
　　积极开拓海外市场，毛利率水平有望持续优化
　　公司持续推进出海战略，以东南亚为战略支点，目前业务已覆盖欧洲、中东、非洲等地。基于业务需求，公司强化海外销售团队建设，26Q1公司销售费率同比+1.24pct，目前公司通过设立当地代理商的模式和自有海外销售团队同步推进，已逐步实现海外客户积累与品牌打造。同时，基于25年报数据，公司海外、国内业务毛利率分别为65.74%、45.44%，我们认为，伴随海外市场业务放量及收入占比提升，公司整体毛利率水平有望进一步优化。
　　产业政策持续加码，看好公司远期成长空间
　　26年微电网及虚拟电厂相关政策逐步落地，看好政策驱动需求放量。1）微电网：26年1月，工信部等五部门联合印发《工业绿色微电网建设与应用指南（2026—2030年）》，引导工业企业和园区推进工业绿色微电网建设与应用，扩大工业领域绿电应用，促进重点行业领域节能降碳；2）虚拟电厂：26年3月，山东省《虚拟电厂建设运行管理办法（征求意见稿）》发布，明确了虚拟电厂的建设标准、市场交易规则与收益机制。我们认为，产业政策陆续出台，对用电侧提出更高的能效管理、可靠用电要求，公司EMS3.0智慧能源管理平台有望成为客户的有效解决方案，看好业务长期放量。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们维持公司26-28年归母净利润为3.14/3.86/5.13亿元（三年复合增速为35.71%），对应EPS为1.25/1.54/2.04元。参考可比公司26年21.2xPE（Wind一致预期），考虑公司软件竞争力优势突出，给予公司26年30xPE，对应目标价37.50元（前值37.50元，对应26E30xPE），维持“买入”。
　　风险提示：新型电力系统建设不及预期；EMS3.0产品推进不及预期。

Shanghai Acrel(Acrel)has reported 2025 revenue of RMB1,094mn(+2.90%YoY),an attributable net profit of RMB205mn(+20.81%YoY),and arecurring net profit of RMB179mn(+18.89%YoY).For 4Q25,revenue was RMB257mn(+3.92%YoY)and the attributable net profit was RMB12.94mn(+13.83%YoY).Acrel’s 2025 revenue growth missed our estimate,mainly due to slower downstream demand expansion and delayed project delivery.In our view,the steady implementation of policies on virtual power plants(VPPs)and new electricity systems,as well as accelerated overseas business expansion,could position 2026 earnings for an accelerated inflection.We are bullish on the company’s edges in products targeting microgrid scenarios.Maintain BUY.
GPM rose by 1.78pp YoY in 2025 amid product mix upgrading
In 2025,the sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios were 13.41/6.60/10.84%(-0.43/+0.56/-0.10pp YoY).The sales and R&D expense ratios narrowed YoY on improving per-capita productivity.For 2025,the overall GPM was 46.45%(+1.78pp YoY).Specifically,integrated power monitoring&substation monitoring systems/energy efficiency management products&systems recorded GPMs of 47.33/47.25%(+2.14/+2.17pp YoY on arising share of software in the core product mix).For 2025,the NPM was 18.74%(+2.78pp YoY).We think that product-mix upgrading and improving per-capita productivity could further enhance profitability.
Overseas revenue climbed by 24.01%YoY in 2025
By segment,in 2025,revenues from integrated power monitoring&substation monitoring systems/energy efficiency management products&systems/fire protection&electricity safety products/enterprise microgrids&others were RMB430/386/79/65mn(-1.35/+8.66/-11.37/+12.55%YoY).Energy efficiency management products’revenue growth was mainly driven by faster ramp-ups in downstream energy consumption control demand.By market,in 2025,domestic/overseas revenues were RMB1,040/55mn(+1.99/+24.01%YoY).Overseas revenue grew faster than domestic revenue,mainly driven by business expansion in Southeast Asia,Europe and other regions.We think that the company’s globalization strategy has achieved initial success,evident in its business footprints in Southeast Asia,Europe,the Middle East and Africa,as well as overseas sales teams.We are bullish on subsequent overseas business scaling.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
In some domestic sectors,customer budgets remain tight.We thus lower our 2026/2027 attributable net profit forecasts by 10.59/13.49%to RMB314/386mn and project 2028 attributable net profit at RMB513mn(2026-2028 CAGR of 35.71%),with 2026/2027/2028 EPS of RMB1.25/1.54/2.04.Considering the company’s strong software competitiveness and complete product lines,we value the stock at 30x 2026E PE,above its peers’average of 20.6x on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB37.50(previous:RMB30.80,corresponding to 22x 2025E PE).Maintain BUY.

　　25Q4业绩稳健，境外快速扩张。公司2025年实现营收10.9亿元，YoY+2.9%；实现归母净利润2.05亿元，YoY+21%；扣非后归母净利润1.79亿元，YoY+19%。公司2025年业绩稳健增长符合预期，其中净利润增速快于收入，主因公司2025年毛利率提升、费用率下降。分季度看，公司Q1-Q4分别实现营收2.4/3.0/3.0/2.6亿元，YoY+0.6%/+2.3%/+4.6%/+3.9%；分别实现归母净利润0.52/0.73/0.67/0.13亿元，YoY+15%/+33%/+15%/+14%，Q4收入利润延续稳健趋势。分业务看，公司2025年电力监控及变电站综合监测系统/能效管理产品及系统/消防及用电安全产品/企业微电网-其他/电量传感器业务分别实现营收4.3/3.9/0.8/0.6/1.3亿元，YoY-1.4%/+8.7%/-11.4%/+12.6%/+7.0%。
　　分地区看，公司2025境内/境外（不包含通过国内外贸公司销往海外的收入）分别实现营收10.4/0.5亿元，YoY+2.0%/+24.0%，当前公司海外业务通过设立当地代理商的模式和自有海外销售团队同步推进，以东南亚为战略支点，覆盖欧洲、中东、非洲等地，境外收入增速明显快于境内，后续是公司扩张重要动能之一。
　　毛利率提升、费用率下降，现金流保持优秀。2025年公司毛利率46.5%，YoY+1.8pct，毛利率提升预计主因公司高毛利的EMS2.0/3.0产品销售提速；其中境内/境外毛利率分别为45.4%/65.7%，境外毛利率持续显著高于境内。2025年公司期间费用率30.3%，YoY-0.4pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别变动-0.4/+0.6/-0.1/-0.4pct，销售与研发费用率降低较多，主因：1）上年有股份支付费用（约1051万元），而本期无相关费用；2）持续推动研发与销售联动，促进降费增效。资产（含信用）减值约349万元（上年约285万元）。所得税率5.8%，YoY-2.9pct。归母净利率18.8%，YoY+2.8pct，盈利能力显著提升。2025年公司经营性现金流净流入2.2亿元，较上年小幅减少0.3亿元，收现比/付现比分别为105%/84%，分别YoY+1%/+4%，现金流整体优秀。
　　算电协同持续落地，公司精准卡位"卖水人"角色。在以电优算方面：安徽近期发布《推动绿电直连征求意见稿》，明确支持绿电专线直连、就近消纳；国家能源局亦明确2026年将出台多用户绿电直连政策，加快零碳园区、工业微电网落地。截至2月全国已审批84个绿电直连项目、新能源装机超32GW，2025年绿电交易量同比+38%、绿证交易量激增1.2倍，绿电直连正迎来实质性爆发。但风光新能源波动性极强，绿电直连模式下"源网荷储"协同调度对用户侧微电网能效管理系统依赖度极高。安科瑞可通过"源网荷储"一体化EMS平台将算力调度与上游绿电实时出力曲线协同，高效完成绿电直连消纳，后续有望全面承接绿电直连模式驱动的系统改造与新建投资红利。在以算调电方面：AI算力指数级增长带来极高电力消耗与供电稳定性需求，AIDC已成为"双碳"下节能降耗重点（枢纽节点PUE≤1.2、绿电占比≥80%），能效管理系统安装必要性持续提升。公司已专门为数据中心定制了涵盖智能小母线监控、动环监控、电气火灾监控及能耗管理的完整解决方案，产品已应用至尚航惠山国际数据中心、西部（重庆）科学城先进数据中心等项目上，且和电信运营商、国家电网、互联网头部企业、银行等客户均有业务合作，后续有望重点受益AIDC建设浪潮。
　　投资建议：公司是算电协同时代用户侧"卖水人"核心标的，同时受益储能扩张及海外开拓，预测2026-2028年归母净利润3.0/4.1/5.3亿元，同增47%/35%/31%，当前对应PE24/18/13倍，维持“买入”评级。
　　风险提示：算电协同需求不及预期，宏观需求下滑，海外开拓风险等。