费用端控制使得业绩有所改善。公司前三季度实现营收12.80亿元（+0.47%），归母利润-1.96亿元（+39.85%），扣非净利-2.11亿元（+38.30%）。其中Q3单季度实现营收4.79亿元（+1.22%），归母利润-0.25亿元（+65.54%），扣非净利-0.28亿元（+63.75%）。费用端管控成效显著，前三季度费用率80.95%（-7.5pct）。我们认为公司经营端将继续降本增效，未来业绩端将持续改善。
　　战略聚焦AI与数据安全，提升产品竞争优势。公司以“3+3+X+Y”战略为指引，聚焦AI安全与数据安全双轮驱动，形成差异化竞争力。在AI安全领域，公司通过迭代风云卫AI安全能力平台，构建多智能体安全应用中心，针对AI模型研判难题提出创新解决方案。同时推出的AI-Scan大模型风险评估产品，利用AI技术提升漏洞检测与威胁研判效率，已在政府、金融等领域落地标杆项目。技术赋能显著提升产品效能，为业务增长夯实基础。
　　探索新领域，培育未来营收增长点。公司积极布局新兴安全场景，在APT追踪取证、云上攻防、无人机新型对抗及车联网靶场等领域取得技术突破，积累了独特的解决方案能力。其中车联网靶场业务已完成关键技术验证，为未来规模化应用奠定基础。在深化云原生安全、隐私计算等研究，完善产品矩阵以满足多元化云上安全需求。这些新兴领域的持续突破有望为公司打开了新的增长空间，形成长期发展潜力。
　　调整收入增速、毛利率和费用率水平，我们预测公司25-27年收入分别为24.02/25.46/28.57亿元（原预测25-26年收入为21.69/23.95亿元）。考虑到目前已处于25年底，参考可比公司给予公司26年3倍PS，对应目标价为9.42元，维持买入评级。
　　风险提示
　　网络安全市场竞争加剧；政策落地不及预期；订单获取不及预期风险；费用控制不及预期风险；现金流恶化风险。

For 2025,revenue climbed by 7.78%YoY to RMB2,541mn.Despite aphased demand slowdown across the sector,revenue remained resilient,supported by the company’s focus on‘3+3+X+Y’high-value sectors and customers,the effective organizational sales system,and avisible pull from security services and emerging businesses.The attributable net loss was RMB45mn(narrowing by 87.60%YoY),in line with its previous profit alert.For 4Q25,revenue was RMB1,261mn(+16.37%YoY),and the attributable net profit(NP)was RMB151mn(vs aloss of RMB39mn in 4Q24).Its expense optimization showed initial results,and the narrowing loss verified operational quality improvements.Contract liabilities climbed YoY,and orders on hand were sufficient,laying asolid foundation for subsequent revenue recognition and profit recovery.We think that the inflection point of the company’s fundamentals has appeared.Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Expense control effective,and cash flows improved steadily
For 2025,the GPM was 53.88%,remaining largely flat YoY.Expense control showed significant results.For 2025,the sales/administrative/R&D expense ratios fell by 5.66/2.00/4.01pp YoY to 26.99/6.48/21.79%,as sales/administrative/R&D expenses dropped by 10.92/17.62/8.98%YoY.For 2025,the net operating cash flow rose by 58.61%YoY to RMB216mn,as the company notably enhanced its payment collection and cash generation capabilities.Cash/cash equivalents and wealth management product holdings were abundant,short-term borrowings dropped steadily,and financial risks were manageable.
Emerging products scaled at afaster pace
The company accelerated its business structure shift towards high-value offerings and services.For 2025,security service revenue rose by 15.34%YoY to RMB997mn,with its proportion expanding to 39.24%.Security product revenue grew by 1.60%YoY to RMB1,156mn on asolid base.Third-party product and service revenue was RMB383mn(+8.06%YoY).Emerging businesses fared well,with AI security-related order value reaching RMB145mn.Popular fields such as data security,cloud security,internet of vehicles security,and industrial internet security saw rapid breakthroughs.The regional structure was optimized steadily.Revenues in western/northern regions grew by 22.27/24.79%,and overseas revenue rose by 32.40%.The company focused on‘3+3+X+Y’high-value sectors and key accounts.Revenue from energy and enterprise segments rose by 39.21%,operator and financial segments remained stable,and the government segment gradually recovered,with balanced business development enhancing risk resilience.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
To factor in the pace of customer demand growth and the prolonged cycle of some projects,we lower our 2026/2027 revenue forecasts by 8.65/11.22%to RMB2,845/3,187mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB3,572mn.We also lower our 2026/2027 attributable NP forecasts by 29.37/26.82%to RMB133/183mn and add our 2028 forecast of RMB242mn.We value the stock at 2.9x 2026E PS,at par with its peers’average on Wind consensus.Our target price is RMB10.18(previous:RMB11.18,based on 3.3x 2025E PS).
Risks:Mounting spending pressure for government customers;intensified competition.

　　公司发布2025年年度报告，实现营业收入25.41亿元，同比增长7.78%，在行业需求阶段性放缓背景下展现强劲韧性，实现归母净利润-0.45亿元，同比减亏87.60%，符合公司此前业绩预告。其中，25Q4营业收入12.61亿元，同比增长16.37%，归母净利润1.51亿元，24Q4为亏损0.39亿元。营收增长主要得益于公司聚焦“3+3+X+Y”价值行业与客户，组织型销售体系落地见效，安全服务与新兴业务拉动明显。费用端优化初见成效，亏损收窄验证经营质量提升，合同负债同比提升，订单储备充足，为后续收入确认与盈利修复奠定坚实基础。我们认为公司基本面拐点已现，维持增持评级。
　　费用管控成果显著，现金流持续改善
　　2025年公司全年毛利率为53.88%，同比基本持平。费用管控成效显著，2025年销售费用、管理费用、研发费用同比分别下降10.92%、17.62%、8.98%，销售/管理/研发费率分别为26.99%/6.48%/21.79%，同比下降5.66/2.00/4.01pct。2025年经营性现金流2.16亿元，同比大增58.61%，回款能力与造血功能显著增强。货币资金与理财储备充裕，短期借款稳步下降，财务风险可控。
　　业务结构持续优化，新兴产品加速放量
　　公司业务结构加速向高价值、服务化转型。25年安全服务收入9.97亿元，同比大增15.34%，占比提升至39.24%；安全产品收入11.56亿元，同比稳增1.60%，基础盘稳固；第三方产品与服务3.83亿元，同比增长8.06%。新兴赛道表现亮眼，AI安全相关订单额达1.45亿元，数据安全、云安全、车联网安全、工业互联网安全等高景气领域快速突破。区域结构持续优化，西部、北部区域收入分别增长22.27%、24.79%，海外收入增长32.40%，全球化布局提速。客户结构聚焦“3+3+X+Y”价值行业与大客户，能源及企业板块收入大增39.21%，运营商、金融板块保持稳定，政府板块逐步回暖，业务均衡发展抗风险能力增强。
　　AI安全与数据安全双轮驱动，产品与技术壁垒持续加固
　　公司坚定以AI安全、数据安全、实战攻防为核心战略，技术与产品迭代加速。AI安全方面，构建“AI赋能安全+AI自身安全”双轮格局，风云卫AI安全平台实现告警降噪超95%，自动化处置率超40%；风云卫大模型安全防护体系通过国家网信办算法备案，满足政务、金融、运营商等高合规场景要求，覆盖全生命周期防护，市场领先。数据安全领域，以可信连接器、可信数据空间为核心，打造数据要素安全底座，深度参与行业标准制定，信创全栈适配完成。实战攻防层面，AI渗透系统将0day挖掘时长压缩至小时级，应急响应效率提升数十倍。全年新增多项专利与软著，多款产品入选Gartner、IDC权威报告，技术代差优势巩固，长期成长动能充足。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　我们预计2026-28年收入分别为28.45/31.87/35.72亿元（前值26-27年为31.15/35.90亿元，分别下调8.65%/11.22%，考虑客户需求释放节奏，下调安全产品收入增速），归母净利润分别为1.33/1.83/2.42亿元（前值26-27年为1.88/2.50亿元，分别下调29.37%/26.82%，主要是由于下调收入增速、考虑部分项目周期拉长，下调安全服务毛利率）。参考可比公司Wind一致预测均值2.9倍26PS，给予公司2.9倍26PS，目标价10.18元（前值11.18元，对应3.3x25PS，可比均值3.3x）。
　　风险提示：政府支出压力增大；市场竞争加剧。