For 2025, Zhenghai Bio-tech’s revenue/attributable net profit/recurring net profit were RMB364/82/70mn, up by 0.3% YoY but down by 38.8/38.5% YoY, missing our estimates of RMB380mn for revenue and RMB120mn for attributable net profit. We attribute the earnings growth slowdown to: 1) tax policy adjustments impacting revenue and margins, and 2) the yet-to-rebound demand for consumer healthcare, slower surgical volume growth, and intensified competition for products such as oral cavity repair membranes. We are positive that a further recovery in consumer healthcare demand could drive an improvement in oral product sales (likely benefiting from a surgical volume rebound), easing VBP’s impact on membrane products, and sales ramping up for active bio-bones. This should underpin marginal fundamental improvements. Maintain BUY.
Oral membrane sales fell in 2025 amid slow surgical recovery
Oral membrane revenue fell by 15.8% YoY to RMB136mn in 2025, with the gross margin contracting by 55bp YoY to 88.14%. We attribute the decline to 1) slowing surgical volume growth and intensified market competition amid an incomplete recovery in consumer healthcare demand. We expect a gradual improvement in the segment’s revenue as Zhenghai expands online distribution channels, deepens e-commerce partnerships, and benefits from the normalization of surgical demand.
New product active bio-bones starting to contribute revenue
Zhenghai’s active bio-bone products achieved RMB32.15mn in 2025 sales with successful market penetration, having entered over 200 hospitals by year-end. Membrane product revenue grew by 12.4% YoY to RMB167mn, although the gross margin contracted by 268bp to 89.17% due to procurement policy impacts. With successful tendering across provincial VBP programs and expanding market share, we expect stable membrane revenue growth in 2026.
Operating expense ratios rose; gross margin fell
For 2025, the sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios increased to 39.09/9.57/15.74/-0.10%, up by 6.16/1.78/4.86/0.05pp YoY, reflecting continued investment in business expansion. The gross margin fell by 177bp YoY to 85.88%, primarily due to intensified market competition and VBP impacts, in our view.
Earnings under short-term pressure; maintain BUY
Based on the 2025 revenues and gross margins for oral membrane and other businesses, as well as the expense ratios, we lower our revenue growth and gross margin expectations for oral membrane and bone repair materials, while raising our sales-expense ratio assumption. We forecast 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB93/103/115mn (-29/-28% from our prior 2026/2027 estimates), with YoY growth of +12.5/+11.4/+11.1%, and EPS of RMB0.51/0.57/0.64. We value the stock at 43x 2026E PE, a premium over its peers’ average of 33x on Wind consensus, considering: 1) stable sales growth in membrane products, 2) new active bio-bone products beginning to contribute revenue with expanding indications, unlocking earnings growth potential, 3) the digestion of short-term influencing factors such as tax rates, 4) the narrowing VBP impact on prices and sales volume growth, and 5) the improving trend reflected in 4Q25 performance. Our target price is RMB22.14 (previous: RMB25.38 based on 39x 2025E PE).
Risks: weaker performance of new products than we expect; lower sales volume growth of products involved in VBP than we expect.

　　公司2025年收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润3.64/0.82/0.70亿元，同比+0.3%/-38.8%/-38.5%，业绩低于我们预期（收入3.8亿元/归母净利润1.2亿元）。公司2025年业绩增速承压，我们认为由于2025年税率调整对公司收入和利润产生一定影响；此外，消费医疗需求尚未完全恢复，手术量增长放缓，以及口腔修复膜等产品竞争加剧，进一步导致业绩增速承压。4Q25收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润0.88/0.15/0.10亿元，同比+23.0%/+56.6%/+112.9%。4Q25业绩增速较好，我们看好随着消费医疗进一步恢复，口腔产品或受益手术量改善，脑膜产品集采影响收窄，活性生物骨开始放量，公司基本面边际向好，维持买入评级。
　　25年口腔修复膜收入同比下滑，静待手术量恢复
　　25年公司口腔修复膜收入1.36亿元，同比-15.8%，毛利率88.14%，同比-0.55pct。我们认为消费医疗需求尚未完全恢复，手术量增长放缓，叠加市场竞争加剧，口腔修复膜收入增速承压。我们预期随着公司拓展线上渠道、全面深化电商合作等营销加强，以及手术量需求进一步恢复，口腔修复膜收入有望边际向好。
　　新产品活性生物骨开始贡献收入，脑膜产品收入25年保持平稳增长
　　2025年公司新产品活性生物骨的推广入院工作有序开展，产品推广应用反馈良好，截至2025年末累计进院达200多家，实现销售收入3215万元。公司25年脑膜收入1.67亿元，同比+12.4%，收入稳定增长；毛利率89.17%，同比-2.68pct，主因集采影响下相关产品毛利率有所下降。公司脑膜产品在各省集采均中标，市占率持续提升，我们预计26年脑膜收入平稳增长。
　　2025年公司各项费用率同比提高，毛利率同比下降
　　2025年销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为39.09%/9.57%/15.74%/-0.10%，同比+6.16/+1.78/+4.86/+0.05pct。公司持续加强费用投入，费用率相应提高。2025年毛利率为85.88%，同比-1.77pct，我们认为主因市场竞争加剧及集采等影响下公司产品毛利率下降。
　　短期业绩承压，维持“买入”评级
　　根据2025年口腔修复膜等业务收入和毛利率，以及各项费用率情况，我们下调口腔修复膜及骨修复材料等业务收入增速及毛利率预期，并上调销售费用率预期，预测公司26-28年归母净利润分别为0.93/1.03/1.15元（相比26-27年前值下调29%/28%），同比+12.5%/+11.4%/+11.1%，对应EPS0.51/0.57/0.64元。考虑到公司脑膜业务稳定增长，新产品活性生物骨开始贡献第二增长曲线且不断拓展适应症、打开潜在增长空间，税率等短期影响因素已消化，集采价格影响收窄、受益量增，4Q25业绩已反映改善态势，我们给予一定溢价，给予公司26年43xPE估值（可比公司26年Wind一致预期均值33x），对应目标价22.14元（前值25.38元，25年PE估值39x）。
　　风险提示：新产品进度不如预期；集采产品放量低于预期。