核心观点
　　事件公司发布2026年半年报：2026上半年公司实现营业收入7.91亿元，同比下降3.87%；归母净利润0.77亿元，同比下降36.42%；扣非归母净利润0.73亿元，同比下降36.78%。2026Q2单季公司实现营业收入3.88亿元，同比下降3.79%；归母净利润0.35亿元，同比下降47.03%；扣非归母净利润0.32亿元，同比下降49.34%。公司预计每10股派发现金1.02元（含税），中期分红共计约0.19亿元。
　　主业收入回落，积极开拓第二增长曲线公司2026H1发行出版主业受2025年畅销书《哪吒·三界往事》带来的高基数影响，同比有所下降：发行出版业务2026H1收入5.64亿元，同比-13.6%。公司积极开拓第二增长曲线，已将IP运营业务提升为与图书出版发行、数智服务、城市文化空间运营并列的第四大业务板块。数智服务和城市文化空间运营业务收入分别增长8.32%和13.47%，IP运营业务同比增长174.46%，实现高速增长。
　　数智技术深度融合，效率大幅提升公司数智化重点向智能工具转变、向业务场景深耕：旗下夸父AI数智出版平台的“信译通”AI翻译工具，支持200万字长文本高质量翻译，专业术语准确率达95%，在内容一致性与行文流畅度达到中等以上人工译者水平的基础上，极大缩短了翻译周期（超过70%）。目前，平台推出夸父智能体，已开发20余项垂类技能Skills，深度提炼选题策划、组稿编校等关键出版环节，通过“智能体+Skills”协同模式提升编辑工作效率。
　　投资建议：我们认为，公司核心出版业务由于上年高基数导致回落，但公司积极开拓第二增长曲线，文化空间运营和IP衍生品业务有望为公司贡献业绩增量，同时AI持续赋能公司日常业务的降本增效。预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为1.46/1.58/1.70亿元，对应PE为31x/28x/26x，维持“推荐”评级。
　　风险提示：实体书店销售码洋下降风险、数字化变革对行业竞争格局改变的风险、知识产权受损的风险、AI技术的发展及应用不及预期的风险。

CITIC Press released its 1H26 results: 1H26 revenue was RMB791mn (-3.87% YoY), attributable NP was RMB77mn (-36.42% YoY), and recurring attributable NP was RMB73mn (-36.78% YoY). The decline in revenue and profit was due to the high base created by the best-selling Nezha: Tales from the Three Realms series in 1H25, as well as higher R&D investment. Considering the company's leading position in the book retail market, the potential for IP and AI initiatives to build a second growth curve, and relatively stable dividends, we maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Second growth curve kept expanding
According to OpenBook data, in 1H26, China's overall book retail market saw a 1.63% YoY decline in sticker price sales and a 3.91% YoY decline in actual sales. The company's actual sales market share in the national book retail market (excluding textbooks and teaching materials) was 3.28%, ranking first among single publishers. In 1H26, the company's book publishing and distribution revenue was RMB564mn (-13.64% YoY) due to the high base created by the best-selling Nezha: Tales from the Three Realms series in 1H25. Gross margin increased 1.18pp YoY to 42.98%, implying a good product mix and sound cost control. In 1H26, digital services revenue was RMB108mn (+8.32% YoY) and gross margin was up 0.49pp YoY to 32.11%. Urban cultural space operations revenue was RMB157mn (+13.47% YoY), with gross margin down 0.94pp YoY to 33.96%. IP operations revenue was RMB42mn (+174.46% YoY), making it the fastest-growing business segment.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering the slow recovery of the overall book retail market, we slightly lower our 2026/2027/2028 attributable NP forecasts to RMB164/184/195mn (down 10/10/10% from our previous forecasts). The average 2027E PE of comparable companies on Wind consensus is approximately 23.43x. Considering the company's leading market share across categories and the potential group resource synergies will create space for long-term growth, we assign a 25x 2027E PE, corresponding to a target price of RMB24.15 (previous: RMB33.41, based on 35x 2026E PE). Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Risks: macroeconomic headwinds, intensified industry competition.

　　中信出版发布2026年半年报，26H1实现营业收入7.91亿元，同比下降3.87%；归母净利润0.77亿元，同比下降36.42%；扣非归母净利润0.73亿元，同比下降36.78%。收入和利润的下滑主要受上年同期《哪吒·三界往事》系列畅销形成的高基数、以及研发投入增加的影响。考虑到公司在图书零售市场中地位领先、IP与AI布局有望打造第二曲线、分红较为稳健，维持“增持”评级。
　　图书主业高基数回落，第二增长曲线延续扩张
　　根据开卷数据，26年上半年全国整体图书零售市场码洋同比下降1.63%，实洋同比下降3.91%；公司在全国图书零售市场（不含教辅教材）中的实洋市占率为3.28%，在单体出版社中排名第一。26H1公司图书出版与发行业务收入5.64亿元，同比下降13.64%，主要受上年同期《哪吒·三界往事》系列畅销书的高基数影响；毛利率同比提升1.18pct至42.98%，显示产品结构和成本控制仍具韧性。26H1数智服务收入1.08亿元，同比增长8.32%，毛利率同比提升0.49pct至32.11%；城市文化空间运营收入1.57亿元，同比增长13.47%，毛利率同比下降0.94pct至33.96%；IP运营收入0.42亿元，同比增长174.46%，成为增长最快的业务板块。
　　费用投入及减值拖累利润，持续中期分红强化股东回报
　　26H1公司销售费用同比增长15.92%，销售费用率同比提升3.87pct至22.68%，其中宣传推广费同比增长61.86%；研发费用同比增长49.0%，主要投向供应链协同平台及夸父AI平台。主业毛利减少叠加推广和研发投入增加，导致归母净利润同比下降36.42%。截至6月末，公司货币资金17.65亿元，拟每10股派发现金红利1.02元，合计拟派发1,939.55万元，对应26H1归母净利润的约25%。公司近三年累计现金分红1.86亿元，占同期累计归母净利润的50.93%，持续实施中期分红有助于增强股东回报的稳定性和可预期性。
　　盈利预测与估值
　　考虑到图书零售市场大盘修复缓慢，我们略微下调26-28年归母净利润预测至1.64/1.84/1.95亿元（较前值分别-10%/-10%/-10%）。可比公司Wind一致预期27年PE均值约为23.43x，考虑公司各品类市占率保持行业领先，集团资源协同有望打开长期成长空间，给予25x2027PE，对应24.15元（前值33.41元，35x2026PE），维持“增持”。
　　风险提示：宏观经济承压、行业竞争激烈等。